Frequency of losing x times in a row per 100,000 hands

[dacium]

Here is the results you asked for:

10,000 sessions playing either 1000 hands or until you are in profit by at least 0.5 units:

Total lost: 4544.5 units. Total hands played: 563650

Average session was: 0.45445 unit loss, 56.365 hands played.

And here it is 10,000 sessions playing 100 hands or until in profit by at least 0.5 units:

Total lost: 893.5 units. Total hands palyed: 153160
Average session: Loose 0.08935 units, 15.316 hands

 

[Kasi]

Here is the results you asked for:

10,000 sessions playing either 1000 hands or until you are in profit by at least 0.5 units:

Total lost: 4544.5 units. Total hands played: 563650

Average session was: 0.45445 unit loss, 56.365 hands played.

And here it is 10,000 sessions playing 100 hands or until in profit by at least 0.5 units:

Total lost: 893.5 units. Total hands palyed: 153160
Average session: Loose 0.08935 units, 15.316 hands

Thanks Dacium - I very much appreciate it.

So, in other words, in ur sims one finished the max 100 hand sessions with a profit 92% of the time and with the max 1000 hand sessions 96.8% of the time?

This despite losing that 4544 units probably exceeds expected loss by a pretty good bit.

I get most units lost in a 100 hands session at -35 and at a 1000 -113.

What would u estimate for the HA of the game u picked or what were the rules just out of curiosity.

 

[dacium]

Sorry I forgot to give those:

The game was 6 deck DAS split once, S17 stand, peek, double 9-11. The house edge is about 0.58% if playing CSM.

The simluation simulated shoes, in a 1 on 1 game versus the dealer. The house edge being slightly higher at 0.6%.

And the numbers you said look correct, for the 100 hand sim, the highest loss was 35 units. 796 out of 10000 sessions lost money (92% winning sessions)

 

[aslan]

Ok, so I think that I have it figured out. Out of every 100,000 hands played by this sim, there were-

LOSING STREAKS

10,544 streaks of 1
5,572 streaks of 2
2,954 streaks of 3
1,568 streaks of 4
832 streaks of 5
441 streaks of 6
234 streaks of 7
124 streaks of 8
66 streaks of 9
35 streaks of 10
19 streaks of 11
10 streaks of 12
5 streaks of 13
3 streaks of 14


Is that correct? It seems like there should be a lot more of the higher # losing streaks?

I'm a little confused. If you add up all these numbers they only add up to somewhere in the neighborhood of 22,000 losing hands out of 100,000 hands. Can that be right?

 

[ScottH]

I'm a little confused. If you add up all these numbers they only add up to somewhere in the neighborhood of 22,000 losing hands out of 100,000 hands. Can that be right?

Without even doing all the math I can see it's more than that.

You have to do the frequency times the streak, and add them all up. Just the first 2 add up to your number.

 

[aslan]

Without even doing all the math I can see it's more than that.

You have to do the frequency times the streak, and add them all up. Just the first 2 add up to your number.

Oh sh--!!! How stupid of me.

 

[ScottH]

Oh sh--!!! How stupid of me.

You must have forgot to muliply by the streak... right?

 

[aslan]

You must have forgot to muliply by the streak... right?

Right!