getting staked by a friend

[Blue Efficacy]

Don't mind the other people here saying you're certain to lose. Definitely not the case, playing with $1000 betting $25 is equivalent to playing $5 with $200.

And before I learned AP, I had plenty of winning sessions with $200 betting $5. Sure I lost slightly more often, but you have a very good chance of winning, too.

 

[johndoe]

Don't mind the other people here saying you're certain to lose. Definitely not the case, playing with $1000 betting $25 is equivalent to playing $5 with $200.

And before I learned AP, I had plenty of winning sessions with $200 betting $5. Sure I lost slightly more often, but you have a very good chance of winning, too.

His risk of ruin with a $1k bankroll, playing $25 units, is extraordinarily high, even for a short session. Lose one or two big hands and he's done. He's nearly certain to lose.

Edit: Oh, I see, he isn't counting. This is just a pure gamble then. If you must play and expect to lose, play whatever stakes give you the lowest house edge.

 

[tensplitter]

Just learn a simple counting system in one day like the hi lo. Play at a $10 table. When the running count is over +5 bet $25 a hand. You will break even or have a slight edge depending on the game.

 

[Zero]

Just learn a simple counting system in one day like the hi lo.

A whole day just to learn Hi-Lo? Couldn't he just bring a deck on the plane with him and learn it during the long flight to the US? Or did you mean learn to count and do something else (like, say, develop a unified theory of physics) during that one day?

Flea, I'm no AP, but I will tell you that you're better off not counting than trying to count after only one day (or even one week) of study.

0

 

[bigplayer]

bigplayer

or go all in on the first hand and ask the friend if he'd like to do the deal again tomorrow.

 

[Deetz]

With that deal I would bet $50-$100. Anyone? zg

If he likes his friend he won't take advantage of him like this. zg

I can't tell if you think betting $100 is being more kind to the friend than betting min.

I'd say, if he likes his friend, he refuses his money. If he doesn't, he doesn't play at all and pockets $800 and gives friend $200 after telling him he unfortunately lost all the money.

Then play, or not at all, in whatever way he chooses with the free $800.

It sounded to me like friend wasn't around watching him bet every hand

 

[moo321]

Is this guy counting or not?

And all of you guys saying he's "certain to go broke" are completely wrong. Even a BS player has a short-term risk of ruin barely over 50%.

 

[Nynefingers]

Is this guy counting or not?

And all of you guys saying he's "certain to go broke" are completely wrong. Even a BS player has a short-term risk of ruin barely over 50%.

If he wongs out at anything worse than -1, and if he only spreads $10-80, and if he plays for 8 hours on this trip, he will have a trip RoR of over 20% and a winrate of around $11 per 100 rounds. If he plays his proposed $15 minimum and still spreads 1-8, he will have a trip RoR of over 40% and a winrate of about $17 per 100 rounds. Either way, the SCORE is around 13. SCORE improves with a higher spread, but RoR increases rapidly as well. These numbers come from my CVCX sim that uses my index plays, which almost certainly includes more indices than the OP will know. It also assumes no counting or playing errors, which is unlikely for someone who does not yet know much of anything about counting. No matter what parameters I put in for spread and wonging, I could not get a SCORE above 30 for one hand or above 43 for two hands. On the upside, if he can backcount and only play positive counts, he can potentially make $12-15 per hour with a reasonably low trip RoR. Regardless, his friend is still getting a poor deal and the best move to maximize the OP's profits is to play for high variance.

 

[moo321]

If he wongs out at anything worse than -1, and if he only spreads $10-80, and if he plays for 8 hours on this trip, he will have a trip RoR of over 20% and a winrate of around $11 per 100 rounds. If he plays his proposed $15 minimum and still spreads 1-8, he will have a trip RoR of over 40% and a winrate of about $17 per 100 rounds. Either way, the SCORE is around 13. SCORE improves with a higher spread, but RoR increases rapidly as well. These numbers come from my CVCX sim that uses my index plays, which almost certainly includes more indices than the OP will know. It also assumes no counting or playing errors, which is unlikely for someone who does not yet know much of anything about counting. No matter what parameters I put in for spread and wonging, I could not get a SCORE above 30 for one hand or above 43 for two hands. On the upside, if he can backcount and only play positive counts, he can potentially make $12-15 per hour with a reasonably low trip RoR. Regardless, his friend is still getting a poor deal and the best move to maximize the OP's profits is to play for high variance.

Exactly. His ROR is below 50%. He's nowhere close to being "certain to lose".


Now, it's a long way from being a good idea... but he's more likely to win than lose.

 

[Thunder]

Now what if he counts and plays at a S17 DOA, NRSA, 6 deck game with 1 deck cut off spreading $10-50, wonging out whenever the TC goes below -1. That ought to push the risk of ruin way down and give him a +WR.

 

[Nynefingers]

Now what if he counts and plays at a S17 DOA, NRSA, 6 deck game with 1 deck cut off spreading $10-50, wonging out whenever the TC goes below -1. That ought to push the risk of ruin way down and give him a +WR.

In Florida?

 

[blackjacktilt]

hi
first post here so go easy on me and on my english

i'm going to be in miami next month(i'm not from the us) and consider myself as an ok blackjack player(i know the complete basic strategy really well) but as for counting and other stuff i don't really know any of it.i'm planning to go to the hard rock for some blackjack sessions.

anyway a friend of mine gave me an offer and i want to ask what u guys think about it

he said he'll stake me 1k for a 60-40 split (his favor) if i win or a 80-20 if i lose(80 for him of course).
never really played before when i was staked and don't know if what he offered me is considered a good deal or not

what do u guys say?

You'll need more than $1,000.....