Hanging up the indices

[Dopple]

I am going to have to hang up the indices for a while. I have been very active on this forum for the last few months and wanted to thanks all those that have spent their time to educate me in the game.

I was trying see if I could play enough to get some kind of feel for what I could expect from the game and lost back about 40 hours of winnings last night. I dont know how many SD units I am away from EV but it almost feels like I am doing something wrong. I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 . Now I can put the game out of my head for a while and spend more time with the family. I had hoped that if I could amass enough data to be somewhat confident I could average just $20 per hour I could work one day less at my day job because the cards are good for my attitude and happiness (when I win). I will be around now and then but the burning desire must be put to rest.

Good variance to all.

 

[Bojack1]

I am going to have to hang up the indices for a while. I have been very active on this forum for the last few months and wanted to thanks all those that have spent their time to educate me in the game.

I was trying see if I could play enough to get some kind of feel for what I could expect from the game and lost back about 40 hours of winnings last night. I dont know how many SD units I am away from EV but it almost feels like I am doing something wrong. I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 . Now I can put the game out of my head for a while and spend more time with the family. I had hoped that if I could amass enough data to be somewhat confident I could average just $20 per hour I could work one day less at my day job because the cards are good for my attitude and happiness (when I win). I will be around now and then but the burning desire must be put to rest.

Good variance to all.

Sorry to hear about your recent turn of events, but not to be mean, I am not surprised. It is probably the most common problem to new and even not so new counters, not having a clue what to expect. There is no way to jump into this game and just by playing the hands, have an answer if you are where you should be. The feelings of doubt that come with losing are fueled by indecision. Not having a clue about risk, EV, SD, optimal bet spreads and bankroll, will raise doubts to your skill level if you find yourself losing and are not able to understand if you are, or are not off track. You can't drive blind and you can't play this game properly with an advantage not knowing what is expected of it. I hope if you do give it another try you learn from this. Developing counting skills is a great start, but if you don't know what you are applying them to, then excuse me but you're just pissing in the wind.

 

[creeping panther]

Dopple

I am going to have to hang up the indices for a while. I have been very active on this forum for the last few months and wanted to thanks all those that have spent their time to educate me in the game.

I was trying see if I could play enough to get some kind of feel for what I could expect from the game and lost back about 40 hours of winnings last night. I dont know how many SD units I am away from EV but it almost feels like I am doing something wrong. I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 . Now I can put the game out of my head for a while and spend more time with the family. I had hoped that if I could amass enough data to be somewhat confident I could average just $20 per hour I could work one day less at my day job because the cards are good for my attitude and happiness (when I win). I will be around now and then but the burning desire must be put to rest.

Good variance to all.

Dopple, I think you are saying more than what is on the surface, I would like to comment more on this in a while.

CP

 

[aslan]

It is important to understand that it is not unusual, maybe even probable, that for a while you will far exceed your expected advantage; but rest assured, large losses loom in the future of every card counter that will quickly rein you back into your expected advantage, and sometimes as in this case, take you substantially in the opposite direction.

It is a roller coaster--something I have heard said over and over in various threads, but it doesn't seem to sink in until you experience it for yourself. It would be easy if your expected win rate tracked pretty much evenly from session to session, but my experience is that it does not work that way. I generally win 5 or 6 or 7 trips to one losing trip, but that one losing trip is often a doozy.

When I first began counting, I falsely concluded that counting was easy, and that far exceeding expectations was money in the bank. I soon learned that I had best hang onto those unexpected winnings, because "corrections," to borrow a stock market term, are a bear. All of a sudden, a dramatic correction can wipe out all those windfall winnings and then some.

The only thing the counter can hold fast to is his belief, no, his knowledge, that he will ultimately emerge victorious in the celebrated "long run." It's not rhetoric; it's science. Be prepared for any and all things in the short run, but keep the faith and you will experience what the simulations prove to be true--you have the advantage, ever so small, and in the end it will make all the difference.

Everything I say assumes good game selection, adherence to sound counting strategies and practices, and sufficient bankroll.

 

[Dopple]

Well thanks for those words of wisdom. I can still think about the game for now anyway. I might be back someday too, just not next week.

So if I had a min bet of $10 lets say that is an average bet of $20 playing 72 hands an hour for 50 hours I would have $1440 in action for 50 hours and 1% of that would be $720 for my EV for the period.

My SD would be 1.1 x SQRT(72x50) = 1.1 x 60 = 66 hands @ $20 = $1,452.

Based on these rough figures being at zero after 50 hours is about one-half an SD below the normal EV.

If I am way off you could use the little icon of the guy with the whip. :whip:

I should deserve a positive correct sometime in the next infinity.

 

[aslan]

Well thanks for those words of wisdom. I can still think about the game for now anyway. I might be back someday too, just not next week.

So if I had a min bet of $10 lets say that is an average bet of $20 playing 72 hands an hour for 50 hours I would have $1440 in action for 50 hours and 1% of that would be $720 for my EV for the period.

My SD would be 1.1 x SQRT(72x50) = 1.1 x 60 = 66 hands @ $20 = $1,452.

Based on these rough figures being at zero after 50 hours is about one-half an SD below the normal EV.

If I am way off you could use the little icon of the guy with the whip. :whip:

I should deserve a positive correct sometime in the next infinity.

You should be able to average $20 an hour, but unfortunately, not in any linear fashion. It's an average that includes large swings from time to time. I agree wholeheartedly that when it all goes south, it has the feel of doing something wrong. With your apparent attention to detail, I doubt seriously that you did anything wrong. The short run can be a b$tch!

I don't know how many times I had several hundreds out and if I didn't happen to win that last hand, I would have been over my head. Which brings into consideration, was my bankroll rightsized? Certainly not my session bankroll at those near disastrous times. It took me some time to get the discipline not to over-bet my bankroll.

When counting, I always feel like I am putting up entirely too much bankroll for the modest expected return. But there's good reason for that (recommended bankroll), and when you hit those bad swings, you realize why it is.

 

[Renzey]

I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 . Now I can put the game out of my head for a while and spend more time with the family.

Frank Scoblete gave the most vivid description I've ever heard of what a humbling, relentless, hammering negative session feels like. He called it a "crawl into bed, assume the fetal position and suck your thumb" pounding. I've been there many times.

 

[aslan]

Frank Scoblete gave the most vivid description I've ever heard of what a humbling, relentless, hammering negative session feels like. He called it a "crawl into bed, assume the fetal position and suck your thumb" pounding. I've been there many times.

:laugh: If that wasn't so funny, I'd cry.

 

[ycming]

Man know exactly how that feels like! Have dropped 250 units in 3 different shoe ! All on different trips to the casino!

Heads up mate, have a wee rest and come back for the grind!

Ming

 

[creeping panther]

Good news

Frank Scoblete gave the most vivid description I've ever heard of what a humbling, relentless, hammering negative session feels like. He called it a "crawl into bed, assume the fetal position and suck your thumb" pounding. I've been there many times.

It need not occur.

Are we now enabling Dopple to get back in the saddle? He clearly is in no position to do so, and he has made the comment of spending more time with the family and the second job comments. Dopple do it, spend time with family and work the second job.

There is alot more going on here with Dopple that is far more important than the Long Run BS.

Maybe if we looked beyond the Gambling Jones we would see the wrong in intentionally, or unintentionally enabling Dopple. Let him spend time with family, and work that second job, the casino is an evil place, he need not be there. Pure counting is a gamble, he need not gamble at this point of his life. He has made that clear, let him follow through with his intention.

CP

 

[StandardDeviant]

A few things stand out to me...

I am going to have to hang up the indices for a while....

It sounds like you "have to" rather than you "decided to." Do you have to because your bankroll is depleted or have you decided that BJ isn't for you, or is it both? Either situation is valid, of course, but they are different situations with different logic behind them.

I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 .

Is it possible to play a game where your minimum bet is more than 1 unit? I thought that, by definition, "unit" was equal to the minimum bet. Sounds like you were really spreading 1:5, and your loss was 130 units not 260? This is still a tough break but, unfortunately, not all that unusual. If your bankroll is properly sized, you can survive a hit like this, but I know from experience that it can be difficult psychologically. The unfortunate fact is that negative swings come with the game and will always be there, or just around the corner.

I had hoped that ... I could average just $20 per hour I could work one day less at my day job...

I admire those who can play BJ for a living. This puts such a high hurdle on bankroll. Here's how tough it is...

The bankroll has to support not only negative fluctuation, but also a salary. My quick calculations show a hypothetical player would need a $20 unit speading 1:5 to expect ~$20/hour at an average DD game. A BR of $25,000 would keep RoR under 1%. Add to that about $4,000 that our player could draw on as a 1 day salary (for 6 months) to replace her earnings during negative fluctuations, and she'd need, let's call it an even $30,000 bankroll to undertake the plan. And of course she would need the discipline not to overbet this bankroll, which would put the whole plan at risk.

A $20/hour wage implies that our hypothetical player has ~$40,000 annual earnings before taxes or about $30,000 after taxes. So she'd need roughly a full year's worth of earnings to take on this plan. And, for our player to truly be comfortable with her plan, to be able to sleep well at night, her $30K bankroll should be a small enough fraction of her total savings so if, in the sad event that she lost it all, her lifestyle wouldn't be materially changed. I'll somewhat arbitrarily (to make the math easy) pick 10%. So our player would need ~$300K in the bank. Everyone will look at these numbers differently, this is just my view.

So if our player who makes $40K per year has managed to save enough to have a $300K nest egg (perhaps she bought Google stock when it was at $100), I would say she could comfortably take $30K out and play BJ each week to offset 1 day per week of working. Otherwise, she may be underfunded and would be wise to remember the sage advice, hope is not a strategy.​

If you enjoy the game, and it sounds like you do, build up that bankroll again and have a go when you are ready. With proper strategy and betting principles, the goddess Tykhe will smile upon you, but more importantly, probability will be on your side.

If you've decided BJ is not for you, then you are far ahead of many who play the game hoping for the best, but not really thinking it through. In which case, I say to you, "Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened."

Best of luck to you.

 

[daddybo]

It need not occur.

Are we now enabling Dopple to get back in the saddle? He clearly is in no position to do so, and he has made the comment of spending more time with the family and the second job comments. Dopple do it, spend time with family and work the second job.

There is alot more going on here with Dopple that is far more important than the Long Run BS.

Maybe if we looked beyond the Gambling Jones we would see the wrong in intentionally, or unintentionally enabling Dopple. Let him spend time with family, and work that second job, the casino is an evil place, he need not be there. Pure counting is a gamble, he need not gamble at this point of his life. He has made that clear, let him follow through with his intention.

CP

Ahh CP, you're reading between the lines. I detect Heat from the family member as much as anything. That is often the hardest part of the game. Pressure when you are absorbed in the game... and more pressure if you lose.

 

[bjcount]

I am going to have to hang up the indices for a while. I have been very active on this forum for the last few months and wanted to thanks all those that have spent their time to educate me in the game.

I was trying see if I could play enough to get some kind of feel for what I could expect from the game and lost back about 40 hours of winnings last night. I dont know how many SD units I am away from EV but it almost feels like I am doing something wrong. I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 . Now I can put the game out of my head for a while and spend more time with the family. I had hoped that if I could amass enough data to be somewhat confident I could average just $20 per hour I could work one day less at my day job because the cards are good for my attitude and happiness (when I win). I will be around now and then but the burning desire must be put to rest.

Good variance to all.

Dopple,

You surely experienced the "kind of feel for what I could expect from the game" based on your recent visit.

Am I mistaken, but didn't you say you have CVCX and CVdata? If you ran the sims you would have seen that losses of 260 units over the period of a night can very well be possible. In addition, how many units do you dedicate as a session bankroll?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and just hypothesize:

If I quickly guestimate your betting 2x10u as a max and it's suggested that you should have a minimum of 15 max bets, then your going to the store with 300 units, but perhaps in a DD game you wouldn't need 15 max bets, so your going with 10-12 max bets which is still 200-240u.

Now once you've lost 75% of your session roll you no longer have enough funding to properly play 2 hands, so either you made the decision to go for broke, you steamed, or you didn't take into consideration the consequences.

Another thing I interpret from your post is that you were looking to earn $20/hr. Based on the that figure, you were probably playing 2 hands at $5-$50 which with a good count, DD, and decent rules should earn you about $25/hr.

Now don't get me wrong, a dollars value is worth different to each holder but 260 units @ $5 is $1,300.00 which if it is an amount that changes your life style, then I wouldn't be playing Blackjack. It also leads me to believe your total bankroll is not sufficient to handle this swing and that playing in this fashion sets your RoR very high.


and if I interpreted the numbers wrong, excuse me for the error.

Enjoy your life and spend quality time with the family, that should be first and foremost. Build a new BR and give it some time before you hit the tables again. Look in the mirror and decided if you going to do this for recreation, a hobby or as a profession, because you sound like you wanted it to be a part time profession, and that will need significant attitude modification.

but of course this is JMO.

BJC

 

[Dopple]

Boxer down

I am also in a window cleaning group as that is a side business I own and operate. They have a group also that I enjoy but here is a special kinship as the cards are very close to my heart. I feel like a boxer surrounded by friends after a bad knockout.

My spread was $10 - 2 x $50 so the total units were only 130 my error.

I heed the words of Panther and will be taking break from the game but not forever, never forever. The game is proven to work and if I can win and know I can it will find a place in my life at some level.

Dont worry about the enabling thing though, I dont want the rep of being the guy that has had one too many blackjacks and needs a ride home.

I went with 14 max bets BJCount and walked with one. I does not change lifestyle but just give me a month or two off.

 

[Machinist]

Don't sweat the small stuff

I am also in a window cleaning group as that is a side business I own and operate. They have a group also that I enjoy but here is a special kinship as the cards are very close to my heart. I feel like a boxer surrounded by friends after a bad knockout.

My spread was $10 - 2 x $50 so the total units were only 130 my error.

I heed the words of Panther and will be taking break from the game but not forever, never forever. The game is proven to work and if I can win and know I can it will find a place in my life at some level.

Dont worry about the enabling thing though, I dont want the rep of being the guy that has had one too many blackjacks and needs a ride home.

I went with 14 max bets BJCount and walked with one. I does not change lifestyle but just give me a month or two off.

Hey buddy,
Don't sweat the small stuff in life.... I believe we are coming upon Christmas, and the holiday season!!!!!!! Screw it take some time off.. Hey better yet take the rest of the year off...LOL Then come Jan. of 2010 make a plan and get to gettin it done!!!!!
Spend some quality time with friend and family... Times are a little tough now, no doubt for alot of people, don't make it tougher by trying to make some spendable money off of BJ. Like others have said not a good road to go down...
I don't know you, but i can tell, you will be back and this will be just a bump in the road..

Machinist

 

[Dopple]

I am going to understand and work with my CVBJ software I got. Thanks for the feedback Machinist. When I get back I will maybe play a little less aggresive but also use up some of the food comps I have earned. Enjoy the game.

 

[bjcount]

1st - I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 .

2nd - My spread was $10 - 2 x $50 so the total units were only 130 my error.

First thing you need to work on before you go back is how to count paper money.

Not knowing if you lost 130 units or 260 units is a major difference especially if the stack of bills in your pocket/wallet is gone and your not sure how much you started with.

Have a peaceful time off, you seem a bit frazzled.

BJC

 

[FLASH1296]

dopple,

Perhaps I have detected a fatal flaw in what you are doing.

You are putting out your MAX bet at TC +4.

You are using the UAPC [Uston Advanced Point Count].

IF I am not mistaken I think that your count at +4 is
indicative of less than a 1% advantage - as it is a Level 3 count.

Ordinarily, we are looking for a 2% advantage to be placing a Max
Bet. With Hi-Lo that is ordinarily TC +5 or +6

I do not have my copy of Million Dollar Blackjack at hand and I am
on vacation with just a slow internet connection; so I cannot check on this.

Did you use software to generate an OPTIMAL Bet Ramp for you ?

 

[FLASH1296]

If he is betting 2 x $10 [and never less] than $20 is his unit.
If he is betting 2 x $100 then his spread is 10-1.
That is a very strong bet ramp for a decent DD game.

 

[bjcount]

If he is betting 2 x $10 [and never less] than $20 is his unit.
If he is betting 2 x $100 then his spread is 10-1.
That is a very strong bet ramp for a decent DD game.

He's not betting 2 x 100, it's 2 x $50.

I was thinking along the same lines as putting max bet too early, and after a quick check in cvcx, depending upon the pen, his # of indices, etc, his max possibly can be at +4 but should probably go out at +5 or greater.

BJC