Dopple said:
I was trying see if I could play enough to get some kind of feel for what I could expect from the game and lost back about 40 hours of winnings last night. I dont know how many SD units I am away from EV but it almost feels like I am doing something wrong. I dropped 260 units playing DD spreading from a 2 unit min to 2 spots at 10 units each at about TC 4 .
Dopple, sorry to hear about your bad luck.
It always surprises that people often play without being fairly certain as to their theoretical win rate.
I think once someone has played 40 hours or so then they should try to find out what others playing the same conditions are earning and/or what they expect to earn. The next step is run their conditions through simulations and truly understand the figures that come out the other end. Certainly playing hours to get an idea of the kind of return to be expected is quite dangerous.
When I started I was very lucky, and completely and was convinced that every card counter on the world was purposely understating their profit - surely my 50 hours of play were proof enough that earning 6 units per hour is achievable with straight counting
If you are playing this game seriously then working with simulations is a must, otherwise it's equivalent to starting a brick and mortar business with no market research, sales budgets, cashflow forecasts etc - the beauty in blackjack is that theoretical returns and expected variance can be calculated with failry good accuracy - much better than in the stockmarkets, insurance, or any business such as restaurants, professional services, car rentals etc etc
Since BJ offers such an excellent forecasting opportunity, players should really take advantage of it!
Good luck,
Matt
