Has Blackjack and counting gone too public to make any money?

[bronco60]

Thanks all, and 3k was just the amount i decided to set aside, that i would be willing to lose. I only mentioned the movie 21, b/c his motive for playing was money for school. The military is gonna pay for some of my schooling, i just think im gonna need a little more for the higher levels, phd, mba, or whatever i end up going for, its not at all the money i need now.
Ive never really thought about poker because even though ive played it growing up, i am horrible at tells, and i dont ever play "the person" i always end up playing the strength of my hand because i cant bluff. Thats probably why i was attracted to blackjack in the first place, because u play against the house who doesnt have options, and will never make a "wild" play and end up getting lucky.
and as far as alot of people trying and failing is that because they stray from the correct betting ramps and made plays based on emotion rather than the math.
I need to go over standard deviation again, but i watched the science of blackjack, and that made it seem like its impossible to lose (in the long run of course), and when i say long run i mean like years of casual play/ months of putting in some serious hours, if you only play when there is a favorable, or at least neutral count.

There are forms of Poker which are more mathematically-oriented, and you can get around some problems by using rngs like stop watches to randomize your play.

Yes, it is essentially impossible to lose "in the long run" if you play properly. But it is also possible to die while trying.

 

[CRF]

Thats true i guess i forgot hold em isnt the only form of poker... just the only one ive ever played.
Ive heard alot of talk about "pressure in the casino" compared to at home. Well when i went to vegas for my first blackjack oriented time, i didnt have a problem with this at all, in fact i thought it was easy to keep the count and the only time i forgot it was b/c at the time i didnt have basic strategy engrained the way i do now, so i actually had to think on some of the plays mostly things like A,7 vs higher cards or 16 and which ones are surr/h or surr/s, and some of the other plays i hadnt had down yet.
Honestly the biggest thing that i had trouble with was keeping conversation with the dealer/other players, but thats just b/c im kinda anti-social when im not drinking, which is something i dont want to do at the tables lol.
So basically heres my question
I have 3+ hours a day to devote to blackjack for the next six months, i have bs mastered for the game i plan to play mostly, 6 decks, H17, DAS, i can easily keep a count, and now im learning the Illustrious 18. Money management, and betting ramps shouldnt be a problem, b/c i can keep my calm and stick to the math even when losing or winning for that matter (not overbetting).
Once i have the Ill18 down, what should i focus on?
Things like shuffle tracking?

My last question is does anybody have cut off points for your wins, to avoid heat, or cut off points for losses even if the count is good?

 

[bigplayer]

Ive just started to get into blackjack and also counting at virtually the same time... and i just wonder if its still possible to make enough to cover trips to vegas... and come home with a couple hundred bucks extra at the end of the weekend. Obviously i know that how much you win or lose depends on unit size, but with my br of $3k, ill be strictly at the 5 or 10 min tables.

What i mean by this question is that the casinos arent dumb... and all the publicity counting has brought blackjack, the casinos actually like that its beatable because the majority of people who walk into s casino dont know the game well enough , to where suttle differences make the casino huge money.
For example, i know one of the big things
is that blackjack pays 3 to 2, but the last time i was in vegas, just about every table i went to was 6 to 5, which i believe, correct me if im wrong gives the house like another .5% on top of the avg .5% adv they already have with normal rules. Another one was at a single deck table there was no mid deck entry, so since the count resets so often, the only time u can enter the table is when the count is 0 and it really is just luck of whether the count goes good or bad... obviously u can use some more advaned techniques like shuffle tracking but i havent even begun to get to that yet since i barely have basic strategy down.

Im basically in the same situation as the guy in the movie 21, i just need a little extra money to pay for college, and i am a realist, i know that team play works but big money also attracts alot of attention, and i want to do this for years, and not get barred everywhere in 6 months.

I guess basically what i am asking is, is it worth it to learn this game... and get really good at it, or are all the good tables gone with the times. No biased answers now...

You think it's public now...it's was a media sensation in 1963 when Beat the Dealer was published. Professional play really requires large bankrolls or the willingness to travel...if you want to play home base casinos with small bankrolls you had better have a lot of great games in your area or you won't make it.

 

[Gamblor]

Once i have the Ill18 down, what should i focus on?
Things like shuffle tracking?

My last question is does anybody have cut off points for your wins, to avoid heat, or cut off points for losses even if the count is good?

If your planning to play for any extended period of time, I would say give thought and read up more on cover. I know you already did, reading BJ books, which often provides a summary, and your probably thinking "nah I don't need to do that, I want max EV", or "yeah yeah makes sense". But it really doesn't sink in until you start play for some time, hope that you learn quick. Of course this site is good for some discussions on cover. Ultimately you have to be creative.

I'm not an expert on ST, never read about ST (or Snyder's book) in any detail (all crazy sounding gobbly gook to me), I'm more self taught. But yes, I would say after contemplating cover some more, I would think about ST. It can be quite devastating when incorporated into your game.

As for max wins cut off, yeah I have one, for good reason. Also, I don't have a max loss cut off, especially on a good count! If you are disciplined as you say, there is no need for one. Also, most of the time casinos love a loser going down in flames.

 

[junior_counter]

Keep up the practice while in school.

CRF,

Those more experienced players with long term hours, have answered your questioned if it has gone too public to make money. Talked about bankroll, etc...

Since you mentioned you are in school, thought I'd add this. From personal experience, used card counting as a stress relief to get away from the books. Was entertaining seeing speed and skills get sharper with practice.

Like many others, I was dirt broke in college and couldn't risk any $ for a proper bankroll. Even if there was adequate $ to spare to eek out a small bankroll, I was not mentally prepared to plop down those max bets when called for. The fear of losing that money, and dealing with fluctuations would have inhibited concentration on making the right decisions like a machine.

But that was me. Maybe you have the solid mentality and can have some fraction of school expenses paid for? Other than the MIT guys w/ a team and investors money, Stanford Wong used blackjack winnings to pay for school playing solo(years ago w/ better rules, single and double deck games).

If you do hold off for now, once you graduate and secure a job, keep a solid, bigger bankroll. Then you can play with less pressure and attack those tables all out. In the mean time, practice, practice, practice. I'm sure there's a link here with all sorts of drills. In school, I did a lot of speed and decision making drills w/ 2 decks, and mini decision chart in my pocket at all times. Something I did not do and recommend is preparing for shoe games. Invest in a shoe, discard tray, and 8 decks of cards, for running count to true count conversion drills. Practice with music, along with casino type sounds in background. That is huge, having to ignore everything around you, along with not making it too obvious you are intently focusing. As others mentioned here, also look into software.

Haven’t experimented with shuffle tracking yet. Don’t have a max or min cut off point for cover. I’m a small fish though w/ small dollar betting units.

Good luck.

 

[creeping panther]

Atm

It's no ATM machine, QUOTE]

Don't tell Paddywhack that :laugh:

In Paddys case it truly is!:grin:

CP

 

[blackchipjim]

Reality check!

If you have a 3k bank and it's replenishable you can play as if it's larger. Is there harm in this? yes kinda but it's just money you can build another one and try to kick butt again. By all means practice your butt off and read tons of material by noted players and authors. Keep reading keep practicing and every once in awhile go play live in your local joint. This is a game and if you enjoy playing and having an advantage while doing by all means go for it. Who knows you may be the next up and coming ZG!:devil:

 

[CRF]

@junior counter
Thanks for the perspective, for me its kinda like im trying to decide if the risk of losing the money is worth the potential winning possibility, but its not that big of a deal if i do lose it, since the MGI bill should pay enough for me to finish my bachelors. Its just anything past that im gonna have trouble paying for if i stick to part time jobs to have time for school.
@gamblor and blackchipjim, thanks for the advice... time to start practicing.

 

[junior_counter]

...for me its kinda like im trying to decide if the risk of losing the money is worth the potential winning possibility, but its not that big of a deal if i do lose it, ...

Good, you're prepared then bankroll wise. I'd agree with other posters about testing the waters at a local joint for live play.

Yeah, I think it's worth it. It's a challenge. To reverse the odds on the casino, sneak behind enemy lines so to speak, and come out a winner. The freedom to come and go as you chose, and prove to all the naysayers the house indeed can be beat. I don't mind putting in the time and money to see if an experiment with positive expectations and profit, pans out in the end.

 

[azbjdealer]

I don't think counting has gone too public. No matter how much publicity it gets, only a handful of folks can actually do it successfully, and the casinos are well aware of this. Also, the casinos these days are very overconfident, although many of them DON'T have that facial recognition software that was featured in the movie "21".

Can anyone learn to do it? I think the answer to that is yes. However, it takes a huge amount of practice that many people are not willing to put in. I have just mastered the technique with dealers that are VERY slow, and I have been practicing daily for about an hour a day for the last 3 months!

It's really not that difficult once you get the hang of it. However, knowing how to count and actually being able to do it arebn't enough. You need to know basic strategy as well. Also, following basic strategy is sometimes ill advised once you know how to count and have an idea of what is left in the deck.

For instance, if the dealers "up" card is a seven, and you are dealt a hard "14", and the count is at -14 (meaning the deck is rich with low cards), you might double down instead of just taking a hit. Adversely, if the count is +14 (meaning the deck is rich in high cards), you might stand to avoid pulling a high card and busting out. Also, there is more of a chance the dealer could bust by pulling a lower card and then a 10.

So, I think that counting will always be undetectable IF it is done in the right way.

In other words, pigs get fat, but hogs go to slaughter!