Have people had "bad luck" in their first few outings

[blackjack avenger]

Variance Thy Name is Destruction

I am sure it IS so. :sad: BJ avenger wouldn't lied to us. :laugh: Larger sample size will produce larger swings, both positive and negative. Makes sense to me.

Well, let's think about it
At some point a player will have a one unit downturn, this can even happen if they are winning. As time goes on are they likely to have a 2 unit downturn? This can happen on the very first hand after the 1 unit downturn. As time progresses they have an opportunity to have larger and larger negative swings. The negative swings happen even if one is winning. if a major negative swing happens and the new player is in the red after may hours, they could end their career.
Casinos win money from counters because even good ones can be knocked out, so overall counters probably don't show positive EV. The negative variance and knockout of the many overwhelm the positive ev of the few.
:joker::whip:

 

[BJLFS]

I may sound like a putz but if you know ur basic strategy and play it perfectly and religously there is no reason you cant win even if you dont count. When i first started going to the casino's in Tunica i only knew basic strategy. But i had faith in "Playing Blackjack as a Business" by: Lawerance Revere. Just knowing basic strategy my first trip was three days five casinos twice a day and i would play only the table minimum and when i got to fifty dollars each time i would get up and cash out. My first two trips i did not count but because i had faith in the system, just like i know 2+2 is 4, i walked away each trip with $1500 in my pocket! I hate to say it but like most things that go wrong operator error! I and probably just a few people can say they have made money each and everytime they went and i can say i have won money everytime i have went to a casino! So take it from me Faith in basic strategy is key. After i had learned to count i went for my third trip and decided to up my limit per casino to 100 dollars. Still aint lost. I have now took 12 trips total. 10 trips of 3000 profit and 2 trips of 1500. Giving me 33,000 profit with not one loss in the nine months i been playing! Have faith in basic strategy its not bad luck when you play a system and lose its operator error! Sorry so harsh but so very true!

I got to tell you I had better luck with BS than I have with counting. Also years ago I was counting - mediocre - and did better than I have now. I don't know maybe I"m just on a losing streak. I have never had one before.

 

[paddywhack]

What you've had is....

I may sound like a putz but if you know ur basic strategy and play it perfectly and religously there is no reason you cant win even if you dont count. When i first started going to the casino's in Tunica i only knew basic strategy. But i had faith in "Playing Blackjack as a Business" by: Lawerance Revere. Just knowing basic strategy my first trip was three days five casinos twice a day and i would play only the table minimum and when i got to fifty dollars each time i would get up and cash out. My first two trips i did not count but because i had faith in the system, just like i know 2+2 is 4, i walked away each trip with $1500 in my pocket! I hate to say it but like most things that go wrong operator error! I and probably just a few people can say they have made money each and everytime they went and i can say i have won money everytime i have went to a casino! So take it from me Faith in basic strategy is key. After i had learned to count i went for my third trip and decided to up my limit per casino to 100 dollars. Still aint lost. I have now took 12 trips total. 10 trips of 3000 profit and 2 trips of 1500. Giving me 33,000 profit with not one loss in the nine months i been playing! Have faith in basic strategy its not bad luck when you play a system and lose its operator error! Sorry so harsh but so very true!

What you've had is good fortune and nothing else. Perfect BS will not, over time, make you a winner. Unless you want to see that mighty nice profit head back across the table, I'd go buy somethin really nice for myself or someone else, or put it to another good use.

Continue to play only a BS game and you WILL give it back. Maybe not for the next 10 trips, who knows, but the math shows that you will lose in the long run even playing perfect basic strategy.

Sorry to burst your bubble of hope - but them's the facts man....

 

[paddywhack]

Part of it is....

I got to tell you I had better luck with BS than I have with counting. Also years ago I was counting - mediocre - and did better than I have now. I don't know maybe I"m just on a losing streak. I have never had one before.

Part of that is that you are betting a lot more at certain times. Playing a BS game you were more likely flat betting or minimally raising your bets.

Now comes a TC+3 or more and you have 5-10-20X the money on the table. When the negative variance hits, and it will, you'll think that this is terrible in contrast to just playing BS.

Can't tell you how many times in neutral counts flat betting table min that I've had some very good wins. Then when the counts start to skyrocket I get kicked in the "you know where".

In the long run, BS won't get you the money but counting will. And that's no B.S.

 

[BJLFS]

What you've had is good fortune and nothing else. Perfect BS will not, over time, make you a winner. Unless you want to see that mighty nice profit head back across the table, I'd go buy somethin really nice for myself or someone else, or put it to another good use.

Continue to play only a BS game and you WILL give it back. Maybe not for the next 10 trips, who knows, but the math shows that you will lose in the long run even playing perfect basic strategy.

Sorry to burst your bubble of hope - but them's the facts man....

Thank you.
Also, even if you do count what really puts you ahead is the bet spreading. Stanford Wong said in Pro. BJ that counting in and of itself, without the bet spreading, gives you only a slight advantage over BS.

 

[BJLFS]

Part of that is that you are betting a lot more at certain times. Playing a BS game you were more likely flat betting or minimally raising your bets.

Now comes a TC+3 or more and you have 5-10-20X the money on the table. When the negative variance hits, and it will, you'll think that this is terrible in contrast to just playing BS.

Can't tell you how many times in neutral counts flat betting table min that I've had some very good wins. Then when the counts start to skyrocket I get kicked in the "you know where".

In the long run, BS won't get you the money but counting will. And that's no B.S.

Look at my post post below yours! GMTA!

 

[kewljason]

I may sound like a putz but if you know ur basic strategy and play it perfectly and religously there is no reason you cant win even if you dont count. When i first started going to the casino's in Tunica i only knew basic strategy. But i had faith in "Playing Blackjack as a Business" by: Lawerance Revere. Just knowing basic strategy my first trip was three days five casinos twice a day and i would play only the table minimum and when i got to fifty dollars each time i would get up and cash out. My first two trips i did not count but because i had faith in the system, just like i know 2+2 is 4, i walked away each trip with $1500 in my pocket! I hate to say it but like most things that go wrong operator error! I and probably just a few people can say they have made money each and everytime they went and i can say i have won money everytime i have went to a casino! So take it from me Faith in basic strategy is key. After i had learned to count i went for my third trip and decided to up my limit per casino to 100 dollars. Still aint lost. I have now took 12 trips total. 10 trips of 3000 profit and 2 trips of 1500. Giving me 33,000 profit with not one loss in the nine months i been playing! Have faith in basic strategy its not bad luck when you play a system and lose its operator error! Sorry so harsh but so very true!

You are absolutely right! You do sound like a putz. :laugh: It's one thing to believe in this type of voodoo, but don't waste our time. You play 5 casino's twice a day for 3 days. thats 30 sessions a trip and have now made 12 trips. Toal 360 sessions and you claim every single one a winner, netting you 33 grand. From playing basic strategy no less. Pleeeeease! Get a life dude.

 

[aslan]

I am sure it IS so. :sad: BJ avenger wouldn't lied to us. :laugh: Larger sample size will produce larger swings, both positive and negative. Makes sense to me. But the difference is the player will be better prepared mentally and hopefully financially to handle these periods having gone through a couple, even smaller ones before. It's that first significant down swing for a prolonged period that really tests a new inexperienced player. Makes one question everything he knows to be true. Reading about it and expecting such a period only can prepare you so much for actually going through such. It really is something you have to experience.

As a player who's dependant on BJ earning for a living, I have to take money from my bankroll peroidically. Not on a regualarly scheduled basis like weekly or monthly. I take a portion of EV a couple times a year during positive variance times only. I could actually go about a year without doing so if necessary. I do it this way because taking money out regualarly, like during a negative variance period would only compound the sensation of bankroll shrinkage. But even without taking money out during these times, there is still an overwhelming feeling of money going out and nothing coming in when these losing days stretch into weeks and months. Can be very trying!

Yes, those not so often longer periods of negative variance have a greater likelihood of appearing the longer you play--let me take that back--they still have the same chance of appearing, but in the larger sample, as you put it, you are likely to see more cases of longer downswings, than in a smaller sample. In fact, in a small sample size, you are not likely to see any long downswings. C'est la vie! :laugh::whip:

 

[aslan]

PS--Nobody said it was going to be easy.

 

[Sharky]

with larger sample sizes "outliers" will expand both sides of the curve...but you gotta love those on the + side :cool2:

 

[aslan]

with larger sample sizes "outliers" will expand both sides of the curve...but you gotta love those on the + side :cool2:

I have not had a gain as large as my largest loss. But it is a cheerful thought to imagine it is coming.

 

[Sharky]

conservatism

 

[paddywhack]

Nor have I

I have not had a gain as large as my largest loss. But it is a cheerful thought to imagine it is coming.

Funny how that works. My average loss is larger than my average win but thankfully I win twice as often as I lose so I am still doing well in the ev department.

I really don't think I play too conservatively. It just seems that when the cards go my way I still have some downturns to even things out. But when the cards go against me, watch out man.

 

[aslan]

conservatism

Naw. Max bet is not conservative. And if one used less than max bet, they'd be using it for both negative and positive swings. I should postulate that I have only lost large amounts in positive counts, and besides, wonging out in negative counts is a conservative thing to do, besides being a smart thing to do.

I believe it has to do with the fact that even though it is a positive count, and even though your chances of winning hands increases slightly, and even though you are more likely to win dd's, splits, and have naturals, you are still likely to lose more hands than the house. So when you get those situations where naturals fall to the dealer and other players, and splits and dd's don't occur to you, and you not only lose "most" of the hands, you instead lose "all" or nearly all the hands, you are losing a long string of hands with max bet out. Not only that, suppose you also receive a string of dd's and splits that don't work out, such as 9/9 vs. 10, 8/8 vs. 9 or 10, 2/2 or 3/3 vs. 7, and the infamous A/2 or A/3 vs. a dealer 5 or 6 (and of course, you always draw tens and the dealer makes a hand, for example, he has a 4 or 5 in the hole)? Then you are not only losing max bet, you are losing double max bet, or even triple when you split to three hands.

OTOH, when you have large wins, they are generally tempered by the fact that the house is still more likely to win more hands than you. How many times have to won several times straight with max bet out only to lose the last several hands. Because it is more likely for the dealer to win more hands in the first place, then on average, you'll have small wins, break evens, or small losses. It's only when the unlikely occurs in plus counts, that is, getting doubles and splits and winning them all, getting naturals, and winning all the hands, that you get large wins.

I've had my share of large wins, but not as large as my largest loss.

 

[junior_counter]

"bad luck"

Yup, had the "bad luck", negative variance second outing.

Had a great start Las Vegas trip $1-$2 table mins. Pressed up without hesitation during positive counts. The low table mins made pressing up to $5-$10 so much easier. Things worked out the way they should have and felt I was invincible. Had visions of taking AC for tons of $ on weekend trips thereafter.

Next trip out in AC got clobbered at $5 mins. Heart raced when called to press up $25-$50 bets. Swear AC was cheating me because of the great success in the first outing. May have called it quits, if it weren't for the initial good run in Vegas. Have gotten use to the negative swings since then.

 

[David Lane]

I wouldn't call it bad luck but for me when I first started I lost most times I played. I started at the $5 level so the losses were not discouraging money wise but it shook me up in my head.
I learned as time went on that for me there was a period necessary at the tables to learn HOW to win. Even when the count is mastered I believe experience is necessary to learn really how to win.
There are numerous factors, in my opinion, to master winning but becoming comfortable in playing was a big one for me. Learning to make the max bet when it was time to make the max bet was another habit I had to develop. It became hard to make the max bets when I had lost a lot of them which does happen.
For me, experience taught me most of all the necessity of persistence and patience. It wasn't until I made it through a losing streak and experienced a number of winning streaks that my confidence began to develop. After a while when I had experienced the variance and still saw things work out the way they were supposed to did I become a believer.
From that point on everything became automatic.

 

[tribute]

counting? From what I have read - anecdotally - it seems that many people have had some bad luck before they start to win. What say you?

I think I know what you mean. How about almost every session. I usually start out losing and getting behind early, finding myself trying to "catch up".
Why can't we get a jump start out of the shoe with some wins first? I have had some memories of winning the first 7 or 8 hands, but doesn't usually happen.

 

[kewljason]

lol! I said i did not count my first two trip's i went with 1500 dollars when i was using basic strategy! Profit in short term vary's on how many decks are used i only play two deck face down so i have less of a chance of getting spotted as a counter and it is the best kind of deck you can use for playing blackjack! I may not have played the casino's long but i studied the game for three years and if you cant make fifty dollars only using basic strategy with a bank roll of 1,500 quit the game because you obviously are not sticking to the basic strategy perfectly and need to give up playing because you are a loser and you need to get a life you are good at! Me i am good a blackjack so i thgink i will stick to the life i got right now! Debt free and buying land to build a house. If u continued to read i counted my last ten trips you putz! ROTFL!!! Loser, listen good cause it's the bast thing for you, give up if cant control your emotion's enough to make the right play's and cant resist the temptation to get even with the casino's by throwing out pointless big bet's after losing big money! Sorry bout your luck but i dont lie i was raised better than that!

Ok, I stand corrected. You won your first 60 straight sessions playing basic strategy. Then you learned how to count. And now you have had an additional 300 straight winning sessions, winning a total of $33,000 from an initial bankroll of $1500. 360 winning sessions and zero losing sessions. :laugh:

And yet another newbie, who learned the knowledge to his new found riches from Revere's 'Playing Blackjack as a Business'. Not that there is anything wrong with PBAAB. It's just that it is 40 years old and kind of outdated and unusual for newbie's to come across it as thier initial reference into counting. What I am trying to say is your MO seems very similar to BillytheBJkid. Maybe you are one and the same, having some fun with us. :laugh:

 

[sabre]

Claiming a +25 standard deviation event isn't effective trolling. Much better to claim a 4-5 +SD event.

 

[rrwoods]

Hey now, I got introduced to counting through Thorp's book