Help with Game and System Selection

[johnnyb]

Hi All,

So after getting my questions down, I realized I wrote a novel. So here are my basic questions, but please read below for context if you would be so kind. Thanks!

1) With an $800 bank roll, probable 1-10 bet spread, single-level system, and a goal of not losing all my money before my 3 day-trip is over, should I limit myself to $3 games or would $5 games be okay?
2) Is a 1-10 bet spread suitable? Or would you recommend trying to stretch it?
3) How trustworthy is the site: http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey/?sort=min&dir=asc
4) Should I go with HiLo, HiOpI with no Ace side count, or some other single-level system?
5) If I decide on HiLo, should I limit myself to shoe games, or would it still be better to use HiLo for pitch games even though it was not designed for them?
6) Any suggestions for specific Vegas casinos? I will have a car, and I am willing to drive anywhere in the area. Feel free to private message me on this one if you want to protect information.

I have an upcoming Vegas trip (1.5 months away), but I have been going in circles trying to figure out which system to use and what type of game to seek out. It seems like all of the different variables (system, shoe vs pitch, penetrance, $3 vs $5 minimums, bet spread, etc.) are all interrelated. . .hence the going in circles.

(My previous experience with blackjack/card counting is that I read my friend's copy of World's Greatest Blackjack book on a whim on the flight to Vegas over spring break, practiced the Hi Op I in a $1 minimum (Sahara before it closed), 1-5 bet spread, 6 deck H17 game, 6-5 payout and absolutely loved it. By the end, I felt that I had nailed down basic strategy and the running count, was solid on the true count, had just started to memorize and apply the indices, and could not handle the Ace side count for the life of me. And I only lost $15 over 12 hours of playing!)

I have done extensive internet research and am waiting for Blackbelt in Blackjack to arrive in the mail, but here is where I'm at:

1) I will have an $800 bankroll for 3 days. My main goal for the trip is to not lose it all while having a blast in the process (but ideally win some money). With a likely 1-10 bet spread (please critique), should I only stick to the few $3 minimum games that are available or is it okay to try the $5 minimum games, too? I tried chugging some numbers on QFIT's risk of ruin calculator for no goal and time constraint, and I roughly worked it out to be about %10 for $5 minimum game. This was surprisingly low to me. This calculator didn't ask about bet spread, so it might not be accurate? That would be an awesome ROR % for my purposes though.

2) I had decided to perfect the Zen count due to its flexibility over shoe and pitch games and solid BE and PE; however, after going through a deck one card at a time over 50 trials over a few days, my average was settling down to about 40-42 seconds. I know deck speed is not everything, but I decided the system was too overwhelming considering my speed with HiOpI was more like 25 seconds and that I am not an aspiring professional.) So I decided to scrap it and choose a single-level system with no side counts. I have pretty much narrowed it down to Hi Lo or HiOpI with no SC (open to other suggestions). It seems like HiLo is superior in shoe games and HiOpI is superior in pitch games even without the Ace side count. Now, the choice seems to hinge on whether or not I should only do $3 minimum games based on my limited bankroll since the $3 games are almost exclusively shoe, while the $5 games have a mix of shoe and pitch. This is based off of http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey/?sort=min&dir=asc. Is that a trustworthy reference? Now you can see why my thought process was getting complicated. I am leaning toward HiLo because HiOpI would basically limit me to pitch games. But again, this depends on whether my bankroll is adequate for $5 games.

3) Another thing, say I decide on HiLo. Based on the premises that pitch games are advantageous to shoe games but also that HiLo is optimized for shoe games, should I limit myself exclusively to shoe games? Or would it be better to play pitch games even though HiLo is not ideal for them?

Even though people are making a big deal of your small BR, I personally think that $800 is manageable over your 3 day trip. First off, I'd suggest lowering your bet spread from 1-10 to 1-8 or possibly a little less. Technically, you're supposed to have a $5,000 BR for a 1-10 spread in a play-all situation, but that's clearly out of the picture. It'd be best if you did have all that cash, because Las Vegas casinos are quite crowded during the day. But you will not be able to play all, and you will need to memorize the wong-in and wong-out points for whatever method you use. And be sure to play GOOD games. Do NOT play 6:5 blackjack, end of story. It is a rip-off, and it worked on you.

It really depends on whether or not you will be able to find a lot of hot shoes to play. GL

 

[Machinist]

@machinist: Yes, by my math: 10$ average bet/hand X 60-100 hands/hour X 25-30 hours X .5% advantage = $75-$150. Not bad for a poor med student!

While I obviously would like to win some money, I'm not doing this to earn a living. But with a break until school starts, the excitement of Vegas, the fun of playing blackjack, and most importantly for me, simply the truth that I have a statistical edge over the casino due to my preparation and skill, I can't wait!

@kewl: I'm a little confused, still. What do you mean you cannot cash the chips out? Say I pay the $30, get the $45 in chips on top of the $770 in chips with the rest of my money, play for a couple days and say end up with $900 in chips. I can then cash out for $900 in U.S. money, right? Otherwise, what would be the point of the promotion. Sorry if this is obvious.

Uchicago, by all means have fun!!!! I envy people like you at times....aahhhhhhh. the excitment of vegas!!!! All them bright lites, noise, people...........Just have fun.........a lot of fun!!!.
All the excitment is gone for me.......
To much of a good thing and it becomes crap.....
I love fishing, but I would never try to turn pro....because I love it so much.....
I screwed casinos up for me a long time ago.........Now its all about the money, and satisfaction of screwing em.....
Like Sage said, let us know how it went for you!!!!!

Mac

 

[shadroch]

If you want to be super-safe, so that you risk of going broke is 10% or less, you would want a BR of 14 Max bets if you plan on playing four hours, and 34 max bets if you plan on playing 25 hours.
In three days, you may or may not play 25 hours. Thats a bit over 8 hours per day.
With $800, that means your top bet should be just under $25.
Playing the $3 DD game at the EC, and spreading $3-$25, you should be fine. Even playing at the Stations casinos and spreading $5-$25, your risk of going broke is about 10%. If you manage to break even or even be ahead after two days, you can up your bets to $5-50 and still have a 10% risk of going broke.
A competant counter spreading 1-5 with a starting BR of $800 will end up with somewhere between $500 and $1000 three quarters of the time.
If playing at the EC, be sure to ask for a food comp every four or five hours played. A couple of nice meals will stretch your budget.
Don't overlook the quirky $2 game at The Longhorn. It fits your budget perfectly. Double down on any three cards and late surrender.
Take some of your winnings and buy a ascot. Then maybe Flash will show you some respect.

 

[FLASH1296]

shadroch says,

"You have to understand Flash. He thinks anyone with less than a $100,000 BR that can be replenished instantly is a degenerate gambler and a true BJ player should be wearing a tux when he plays. His nose is so high in the air, he might drown if caught in the rain. "

What shad' posted re: me … is utter nonsense. Indeed, among my crew are two guys that
I have been training for months, who have hardly placed a bet yet, due to tight funds.

My concern is that it is cruel to encourage inexperienced players to lose their money by playing
with spreads too narrow to win and bankrolls too diminutive to weather the smallest of storms.

 

[paddywhack]

[My concern is that it is cruel to encourage inexperienced players to lose their money by playing
with spreads too narrow to win and bankrolls too diminutive to weather the smallest of storms.

That I can easily agree with. OTOH, if the OP is interested in giving it a try, then he's gotten some very decent advice. And a very stern warning.

 

[FLASH1296]

There is one KEY element in this thread.

Anyone with a bankroll that small cannot rationally accept a Risk of Ruin that will be "sky-high".

While "risk", in the sense that we use the term, is purely
subjective, we can certainly stipulate that if a player travels
to Las Vegas, assumes high expenses, etc. and is left with
"disposable funds" that are too low for all but a $1 or $2 game
with concomitant bad rules — then the specter of losing
should have had the O.P. rethinking his plans long before now.

The jeopardy that he is embracing is self-destructive.
The "utility function" of his having "fun" in "Sin City"
is outweighed by the extreme likelihood of his "busting out"
before his plane at McCarren is gassed up for his egress.

Is there a sadder forecast for a testosterone-driven
"twenty-something" ( intrigued with media portrayals
of card counters)than that of being quasi-stranded in
Las Vegas with no money left to lose ?

 

[shadroch]

What is your definition of sky high? I laid out a battle plan for him that entails a 90% success rate. How much more than that would be needed to avoid what you term a sky high risk of ruin?

 

[FLASH1296]

90% success ?

That depends on how (loosely)
one defines success, and includes the dubious
assumption that the O.P. is skillful.

It is facile to be flippant re: winning and losing < 1K
when you are as well-capitalized as we are, but …


Definitions:
dubious — not to be relied upon; suspect.

facile — (esp. of a theory or argument) appearing neat and comprehensive only by ignoring the true complexities of an issue; superficial.

flippant — not showing a serious or respectful attitude

 

[shadroch]

90% success ?

That depends on how (loosely)
one defines success, and includes the dubious
assumption that the O.P. is skillful.

It is facile to be flippant re: winning and losing < 1K
when you are as well-capitalized as we are, but …


Definitions:
dubious — not to be relied upon; suspect.

facile — (esp. of a theory or argument) appearing neat and comprehensive only by ignoring the true complexities of an issue; superficial.

flippant — not showing a serious or respectful attitude

Could you cut the blather and answer the question.

 

[uchicago]

Machinist, thanks for your wisdom.

Shadroch, that is great usable advice. Thanks so much. Your suggestions seem very reasonable, but how are you coming up with these numbers? Could you link me to the sim/calculator you are using or just fill me in on the math?

 

[shadroch]

Machinist, thanks for your wisdom.

Shadroch, that is great usable advice. Thanks so much. Your suggestions seem very reasonable, but how are you coming up with these numbers? Could you link me to the sim/calculator you are using or just fill me in on the math?

Almost all the figures I gave you- esp. the number of big bets required for hours of play are lifted directly out of Fred Renzeys's excellent book- Blackjack Bluebook2. If you don't have this book, get it.
It contains a section on bankroll management,and references work Don Schlesinger did for his book Blackjack Attack.

Mr Renzys numbers state that to be 90% safe in four hours of play at a DD game, you need 14 Max bets. To be 95% safe, you need 21 max bets.
Thats with a 1-6 spread.
In a shoe game, with a 1-10 spread, you need about 25% fewer big bets.
For 25 hours in a DD game, you need 34 max bets, with a 1-6 spread.

In the real world, most people don't play 25 hours in a three day trip.

 

[tthree]

Improving your chances

Hopefully someone has suggested this but with his small BR back counting in at a big advantage and flat betting while the advantage holds at a larger bet say $25 to $50. He may only play 25 hands an hour but his prospects are greatly improved.

 

[Xenophon]

Hopefully someone has suggested this but with his small BR back counting in at a big advantage and flat betting while the advantage holds at a larger bet say $25 to $50. He may only play 25 hands an hour but his prospects are greatly improved.

I like this approach.

Wong in at TC +1. Depart if count drops to 0. Spread 1 to 5 at TC +1 and greater. $10 to $50.

Fewer hands will be played but at a bigger advantage. An archived CVCX hi-lo I18 Fab 4 sim shows this is an effective approach to play with an $800 bankroll.

 

[shadroch]

You CAN NOT wong in and out at the EC, The Longhorn or most Station casinos. In the first place, seats at these games are scarce, and in the second- you'll be bounced or flat bet in very short order.

 

[tthree]

You CAN NOT wong in and out at the EC, The Longhorn or most Station casinos. In the first place, seats at these games are scarce, and in the second- you'll be bounced or flat bet in very short order.

Flat betting works fine when you only play at an advantage.

 

[shadroch]

Flat betting works fine when you only play at an advantage.

On a computer, sure.
In a casino that has one table open, how would you propose wonging in and out of it? How long before the pitboss picked up on it?

 

[Machinist]

Again if your playing for fun or a thrill, you keep your ass in your chair. Or if your into making money you get up and go find better or more games.
To each their own.

Machinist

 

[tthree]

I don't play in vegas enough to comment on the reality of backcounting conditions but I would think the abundance of casinos should help in this quest. If, where and when he can find the opportunity it is the best strategy for his bankroll.

 

[shadroch]

I don't play in vegas enough to comment on the reality of backcounting conditions but I would think the abundance of casinos should help in this quest. If, where and when he can find the opportunity it is the best strategy for his bankroll.

The reality is there are less than a dozen games at the $3 to $5 minimum,and there are rarely more than one or two a casino. and it does not make sense to leave one casino to travel to another when the count on a game gets bad. The fact that there are hundreds of BJ games in Vegas is meaningless when the number of games that your BR will allow you to play is quite limited.
Wonging works best at mega-casinos like CP that have multiple BJ pits, not just multiple tables.

 

[Albee]

Uchicago......with your $800 bucks you will be getting experience. Don't expect much more. Play the decent single and DD games with a $5. min and use a 1-8 spread......tops. If you stick with a red per positive count, you most likely will not get to your max of $40 bucks.

Again, don't believe you can play more because reality will bite you in the ass. Use what you have for the 3-days rationally and accept the experience you’re gaining as your winnings.

Hopefully you'll generate mailers from this trip which is always a plus.