hey everyone

[sagefr0g]

Sorry, should've been clearer: running. The true counts remained literally (virtually) zero each and every time. The highest I think I ever encountered was about +3.

wvbjplayer

wow?? ok well i sure don't know..... omg i have to be thankful i've never run into that bad of situation. 300 shoes and virtually tc=0 all the time except maybe twelve of the shoes....i mean i thought i'd seen a lot of dead shoes in my time!..... that's only 4% of the shoes ever exceeding a true count of zero!! just guessing here but i would expect maybe sixty percent of the shoes might hang on zero, about 20% hang in the negative range and about 20% go positive to some significant degree ...... something like that.
that is mind boggling......... and your sure your counting correctly, i'm sure.
well yeah it would indeed be interesting to hear from someone who has been to Wheeling Island to see what their experience has been.
oh yeah, just curious how many players on average were at the tables you played? i mean lets see three hundred shoes is pretty many. what would that be about 4,711 rounds if say four players over sixty hours of play? sound about right? what would that be around ten or more days of playing six or so hours a day?

edit =====>>>> hold on here a minute wvbjplayer..... i just checked an old post of yours: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67040&postcount=32
inwhich you say ...."I didn't really understand this, because, at least where *I* play, after every round a black, mechanical box containing a new 6 or 8 decks of cards (presumably having been shuffled by some kind of automatic shuffler) rises up from behind the table and the discards are simply removed from the discard tray and set into the other side of the box, which then disappears under the table."
uhmm that sounds like it could be some sort of new variant of a continuous shuffle machine CSM and not an regular automatic shuffler or ASM.
from whence do they pull the cards that they are dealing to you? is it a shoe that you can see and no new cards are being introduced or are they taking the cards dealt out of this machine?

 

[Persnickety1]

Are we both talking about 6-8D shoes? If you're referring to shoes w/ fewer decks, I have no experience with those and thus would not be surprised if your observations differed markedly from mine.

Thankfully I haven't seen any Mindplay or other fancy card scanning tables in my neck of the woods. I will agree with you that those should be avoided. Not because I believe the order of cards being spit out can be specified, but because the software analyzes each player's patterns taking into consideration the upcoming (scanned) cards. I hear they "preferentially shuffle" the shoe early when the software triggers a "projected big winner" alarm.

The closest hand-shuffled casino for me is about 80 miles away. The closer places all use ASMs, for all decks, even for the single deck games. However, the shuffle times out after a preset amount of time, it doesn't go on forever. You just hear it stop huffing and puffing, the tray lifts up, and I think a button lights up.

However, your coincidence theory, while superficially plausible, does not persuade me. Initially it did. Initially I was convinced of it, in fact. Then I kept playing, and kept observing more and more stagnant counts. I'm not talking 5 or 10 in a row here. I'm talking about approx 300, and sometimes as many as 20 or 25 consecutively!

Alas, I didn't have enough money to conduct further testing.

I am having a hard time believing the idea that the cards will somehow arrange themselves high-low if shuffled long enough. Statistically, that's just as improbable as them arranging themselves in numerical order. It might seem logical, but that wouldn't be random.
The longer the decks are being shuffled, the more random the cards should become. And I define "random" as devoid of discernable patterns.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

edit =====>>>> hold on here a minute wvbjplayer..... i just checked an old post of yours: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67040&postcount=32
inwhich you say ...."I didn't really understand this, because, at least where *I* play, after every round a black, mechanical box containing a new 6 or 8 decks of cards (presumably having been shuffled by some kind of automatic shuffler) rises up from behind the table and the discards are simply removed from the discard tray and set into the other side of the box, which then disappears under the table."
uhmm that sounds like it could be some sort of new variant of a continuous shuffle machine CSM and not an regular automatic shuffler or ASM.

I am pretty sure these are just automated shuffle machines as if you goto the shufflemaster gaming website thats what they say they are, One features they have is the ability to detect if too few cards are present or if there are extra cards which it will confirm prior to sending each shoe out of the machine. I know this because i once saw a shoe refused entree into play because the machine said it was missing a card, also the websight says so, that is the only feature it says it has, they later found jammed in the machine.
They work with two shoes typically one red and one blue, one is in the machine getting shuffled and the other in play. The entire shoe is played and there are clearly two shoes each of a different color.

The "I-shoe" which the website also bosts would be recegnisable because it is black, not the typical white plastic that most shoes are, iv never seen those before though.

 

[sagefr0g]

I am pretty sure these are just automated shuffle machines as if you goto the shufflemaster gaming website thats what they say they are, One features they have is the ability to detect if too few cards are present or if there are extra cards which it will confirm prior to sending each shoe out of the machine. I know this because i once saw a shoe refused entree into play because the machine said it was missing a card, also the websight says so, that is the only feature it says it has, they later found jammed in the machine.
They work with two shoes typically one red and one blue, one is in the machine getting shuffled and the other in play. The entire shoe is played and there are clearly two shoes each of a different color.

The "I-shoe" which the website also bosts would be recegnisable because it is black, not the typical white plastic that most shoes are, iv never seen those before though.

well this is what i thought at first also but read his post again. he states this occurs after EVERY ROUND....."after every round a black, mechanical box containing a new 6 or 8 decks of cards (presumably having been shuffled by some kind of automatic shuffler) rises up from behind the table and the discards are simply removed from the discard tray and set into the other side of the box,"
i've never seen an ASM that comes into play after every round.....

 

[jack.jackson]

In a one deck game staying on 7-7 vs a 10 is the best play. I consider it an advanced play even though it is basic stragedy because you are suppose to hit other forms of 14 vs a 10 such as 10-4 or 8-6. Another advanced play is hitting 10-2 vs a 4 this is not a basic stragedy play because basic stragedy says to stay on a 12 vs a 4 however if your hand is made up of 10-2 rather than another combo such as 9-3 hitting is the mathimatically correct play!

In support of your post here, I would also like to add its logical to stand 77vsX in a DD game at about half the Index of 14vsX.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

yo idk what kinda shoes your playin wjbj but iv seen tc of 10 in 8 deckers and tc of 12 in 6 deckers maybe you just wernt playing enough shoes or were very unfortunate, iv played 5 hours straight not even seeing a positive shoe before. They do come though.

I think you guys are mistaking his refferenence of round , its pretty misguided that 6-8 decks being a shoe woudl somehow enter the game after every round of play where round is on average 5.4 cards, the machine wont even allow the cards into play untill they ahve been shuffled for a predetermined period of time, so this wouldnt work anyways.

 

[Persnickety1]

well this is what i thought at first also but read his post again. he states this occurs after EVERY ROUND....."after every round a black, mechanical box containing a new 6 or 8 decks of cards (presumably having been shuffled by some kind of automatic shuffler) rises up from behind the table and the discards are simply removed from the discard tray and set into the other side of the box,"
i've never seen an ASM that comes into play after every round.....

I'm sure he meant to say "shoe" rather than "round". He appears to describe the kind of ASM the Ferret mentioned. None of the CSMs I ever saw have a lifting tray like that.

 

[sagefr0g]

I'm sure he meant to say "shoe" rather than "round". He appears to describe the kind of ASM the Ferret mentioned. None of the CSMs I ever saw have a lifting tray like that.

yea well Ferret is probably right. but if so we are left with wvbj and his 300 shoes with only 12 deviations from tc=0. that sure doesn't make sense either.

 

[wvbjplayer]

wow?? ok well i sure don't know..... omg i have to be thankful i've never run into that bad of situation. 300 shoes and virtually tc=0 all the time except maybe twelve of the shoes....i mean i thought i'd seen a lot of dead shoes in my time!..... that's only 4% of the shoes ever exceeding a true count of zero!! just guessing here but i would expect maybe sixty percent of the shoes might hang on zero, about 20% hang in the negative range and about 20% go positive to some significant degree ...... something like that.
that is mind boggling......... and your sure your counting correctly, i'm sure.
well yeah it would indeed be interesting to hear from someone who has been to Wheeling Island to see what their experience has been.
oh yeah, just curious how many players on average were at the tables you played? i mean lets see three hundred shoes is pretty many. what would that be about 4,711 rounds if say four players over sixty hours of play? sound about right? what would that be around ten or more days of playing six or so hours a day?

edit =====>>>> hold on here a minute wvbjplayer..... i just checked an old post of yours: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67040&postcount=32
inwhich you say ...."I didn't really understand this, because, at least where *I* play, after every round a black, mechanical box containing a new 6 or 8 decks of cards (presumably having been shuffled by some kind of automatic shuffler) rises up from behind the table and the discards are simply removed from the discard tray and set into the other side of the box, which then disappears under the table."
uhmm that sounds like it could be some sort of new variant of a continuous shuffle machine CSM and not a regular automatic shuffler or ASM.
from whence do they pull the cards that they are dealing to you? is it a shoe that you can see and no new cards are being introduced or are they taking the cards dealt out of this machine?

Yes, you can see the shoe. No, it's not a variant on a CSM. It's just an ASM that shuffles the entire time the other shoe is in play. One set of decks is red-backed, the other blue-backed. On the top of the box from which the cards are removed before being placed in the shoe, there is an electronic "window" in which a progress bar tells the dealer how far along the shuffle is (20%, 30%, etc.) at any given moment. (I know this not b/c I've actually SEEN said bar, but only b/c one of the dealers mentioned it to me in passing when I jokingly suggested we toss out the shoe in play, decidedly nasty, and replace it with the other.)

wvbjplayer

 

[sagefr0g]

Yes, you can see the shoe. No, it's not a variant on a CSM. It's just an ASM that shuffles the entire time the other shoe is in play. One set of decks is red-backed, the other blue-backed. On the top of the box from which the cards are removed before being placed in the shoe, there is an electronic "window" in which a progress bar tells the dealer how far along the shuffle is (20%, 30%, etc.) at any given moment. (I know this not b/c I've actually SEEN said bar, but only b/c one of the dealers mentioned it to me in passing when I jokingly suggested we toss out the shoe in play, decidedly nasty, and replace it with the other.)

wvbjplayer

so they don't actually place the discards in this machine after every round but probably after every shoe. right?

 

[Sonny]

so they don't actually place the discards in this machine after every round but probably after every shoe. right?

I think he's talking about this guy:

 

[wvbjplayer]

I think he's talking about this guy:

Precisely that guy, indeed.

wvbjplayer

 

[Kasi]

i mean lets see three hundred shoes is pretty many. what would that be about 4,711 rounds if say four players over sixty hours of play? sound about right? ....

I'll just jump in to try to put a little perspective on this. Just from a BS point of view ignoring any effects of card-counting for the moment.

And, no idea if I remember right but I seem to remember his average bet may have been $25 or $30.

So, even for a BS player flat-betting $25/hand losing 80 units in 4711 hands is nothing, well within 1 stan deviation and to be completely expected. Even if only 3000 hands, still only about 1 SD, on the wrong side of course but to be completely expected in the sense calling it "bad luck", while it may have felt like that, just isn't justified.

But losing 400 units, betting $5 in the same number of hands, would gain my sympathy.

As to wvplayer saying "Alas, I didn't have enough money to conduct further testing", if you really believe this is going on, which I think would effect even a BS player, just log the results of a few thousand hands of an accurate BS player while standing behind the table. Just an idea - in case you really, really cared.

And, of course, this all basically just a big guess as to how I have understood things so far, as only he can say how many hands he thinks he played, how he played them, and what his avg bet may have been.

 

[mdlbj]

I think he's talking about this guy:

Thats pretty.

 

[sagefr0g]

.........
And, of course, this all basically just a big guess as to how I have understood things so far, as only he can say how many hands he thinks he played, how he played them, and what his avg bet may have been.

yeah well i can see Wvbj losing the money but his not noting more than i think it was about 12 shoes that made it into positive true count territory out of around 300 shoes that mystifies me.
i mean to me lol when i was counting that's what it fealt like but the reality was really closer to expectation for true counts.