Hi-Lo vs Zen vs RPC

[blackjack avenger]

A Stroll to the Long Run

Maybe one more good session?? What if that session was a horrid session? That could even wipe out the small advantage I did see. I can't speculate about what might/could/should happen in the future. All I can go by is my actual results. Which were:

18 months using RPC 1878 hours, +2804 units = 1.493 units/hour
15 months prior using hi-lo 1198 hours, +1741 units = 1.453 units/hour

I can't go back further than that because I was using a different bet spread before that.

In answer to your question that I didn't find 3-5% significant enough? No I didn't. For me the level 2 count was a bit more taxing. After 18 months I still wasn't as fast as with hi-lo. I couldn't glance at a table as I walked through the casino and come up with a count instantaneously as I could with hi-lo. I also became fatigues a bit quicker and couldn't play as long without a break. Hi-lo is so second nature that I still have the freedom to take advantage of other situations as they arise that I may not before. So the answer, All things being equal 3-5% increase would have been worth it, but as you can see, for me, all things were not equal. I have to take everything into the equation.

Your hands played may still be to few to make a real comparison.:joker::whip:
Did you use a fixed spread or did you resize your bets with bankroll growth?

You mention you may have missed other opportunities with the higher level count? Well you miss opportunities a lot more frequetly with a lower level count.

 

[rukus]

Maybe one more good session?? What if that session was a horrid session? That could even wipe out the small advantage I did see. I can't speculate about what might/could/should happen in the future. All I can go by is my actual results. Which were:

18 months using RPC 1878 hours, +2804 units = 1.493 units/hour
15 months prior using hi-lo 1198 hours, +1741 units = 1.453 units/hour

I can't go back further than that because I was using a different bet spread before that.

In answer to your question that I didn't find 3-5% significant enough? No I didn't. For me the level 2 count was a bit more taxing. After 18 months I still wasn't as fast as with hi-lo. I couldn't glance at a table as I walked through the casino and come up with a count instantaneously as I could with hi-lo. I also became fatigues a bit quicker and couldn't play as long without a break. Hi-lo is so second nature that I still have the freedom to take advantage of other situations as they arise that I may not before. So the answer, All things being equal 3-5% increase would have been worth it, but as you can see, for me, all things were not equal. I have to take everything into the equation.

then that is [perfectly fine. if all the other variables make hi lo weigh in better for you, then that is just fine. for me personally, it was worth it.

 

[kewljason]

Your hands played may still be to few to make a real comparison.:joker::whip:
Did you use a fixed spread or did you resize your bets with bankroll growth?

You mention you may have missed other opportunities with the higher level count? Well you miss opportunities a lot more frequetly with a lower level count.

Yes I used a fix spread throughout that time. And yes I agree, these number are too small of a sample to have any real value, But I can only use the data that I have.

At the end of my 18 months, I determined that for me, the gain was at best in the mid single digits and that wasn't worth it to me. If the actual gain is 10 or 12% or the 20%+ that flash suggusted earlier, I would have to rethink my decision.

 

[blackjack avenger]

The Human Element

When comparing 2 counts sims should be the method of choice.:joker::whip: That is the way you can keep all the variables I mentioned earlier equal.

Did you use the appropriate bet ramp for each count? They should be different.

If you used a fixed spread you are handicapping the advantage of the superior count.

Long run considerations are very important!:joker::whip: Right Rukus?

A stronger count cuts down on the long run, a major point not often mentioned.

I think the proper comparison in a casino environment is ease of use. If you think the extra effort was taxing or not worth the extra value a SIM would show then that is subjective and your decision is probably correct for you.

 

[rukus]

When comparing 2 counts sims should be the method of choice.:joker::whip: That is the way you can keep all the variables I mentioned earlier equal.

Did you use the appropriate bet ramp for each count? They should be different.

If you used a fixed spread you are handicapping the advantage of the superior count.

Long run considerations are very important!:joker::whip: Right Rukus?

A stronger count cuts down on the long run, a major point not often mentioned.

I think the proper comparison in a casino environment is ease of use. If you think the extra effort was taxing or not worth the extra value a SIM would show then that is subjective and your decision is probably correct for you.

i think by comparing SCORE as ICnT graphed, we are taking everything into account - N0 (long run), EV, SD, etc etc.
but yes, that pesky long run is very important indeed :flame::whip:

that graph shows 10%-15% increase or so. for me, i was able to upgrade just fine. i would say if after 18 months you arent as comfortable and get more mileage out of hi lo, then by all means stick with hi lo!

agreed with Avenger here though - if you played 18 months without changing your ramp from the one used with hi lo, that might have affected results (theoretically you should be able to bet more). did you use a different ramp?

 

[kewljason]

i think by comparing SCORE as ICnT graphed, we are taking everything into account - N0 (long run), EV, SD, etc etc.
but yes, that pesky long run is very important indeed :flame::whip:

that graph shows 10%-15% increase or so. for me, i was able to upgrade just fine. i would say if after 18 months you arent as comfortable and get more mileage out of hi lo, then by all means stick with hi lo!

agreed with Avenger here though - if you played 18 months without changing your ramp from the one used with hi lo, that might have affected results (theoretically you should be able to bet more). did you use a different ramp?

Yes, theoretically, you should be able to bet slightly more with the same RoR. However, since I round of my bets to nearest unit, it's not likey to make a differnce. If I'm betting 4 units ($100) at hi-lo and the sim says that I could bet $105 with a higher level count and still have the same RoR. I would still bet $100. I bet in units. I'm not one of those people that bets rainbow stacks of chips. It slows the game down dramatically. And its really not that common where I play. Usually the players at the $25 are betting green. Ocasionally on the weekends I see people betting $35, $65 ect but usually they just move up and down in green. So in that sense, its slightly out of the norm, which draws attention which I always try to avoid. Mainly though the problem is it slows down the game. Even with two or three player, if they are playing green chips, the game usually moves along at a good pace. Get one JA betting $30, $40, $55 and as I said, it slows dramatically, which costs EV.

 

[rukus]

Yes, theoretically, you should be able to bet slightly more with the same RoR. However, since I round of my bets to nearest unit, it's not likey to make a differnce. If I'm betting 4 units ($100) at hi-lo and the sim says that I could bet $105 with a higher level count and still have the same RoR. I would still bet $100. I bet in units. I'm not one of those people that bets rainbow stacks of chips. It slows the game down dramatically. And its really not that common where I play. Usually the players at the $25 are betting green. Ocasionally on the weekends I see people betting $35, $65 ect but usually they just move up and down in green. So in that sense, its slightly out of the norm, which draws attention which I always try to avoid. Mainly though the problem is it slows down the game. Even with two or three player, if they are playing green chips, the game usually moves along at a good pace. Get one JA betting $30, $40, $55 and as I said, it slows dramatically, which costs EV.

that is fair. completely agree on game speed. only time ill do rainbow is as part of an act or when the dealer cant pay off properly. otherwise speed is too important to give up.

what about the "speed" with which you ramp the bets? ive never compared hi lo to rpc (or to zen for that matter) - do you have the optimal ramps (rounded to nearest unit) for hi lo and rpc? maybe that will shed some light?

(i fully admit i am just playing devils advocate and trying to come up with reasons you didnt see the 10% gain, when in the end, it could just be that enough BJ was not played - not a limit of you of course, just that good ol long run :devil:)

 

[kewljason]

(i fully admit i am just playing devils advocate and trying to come up with reasons you didnt see the 10% gain, when in the end, it could just be that enough BJ was not played - not a limit of you of course, just that good ol long run :devil:)

I have always figured a portion of the gain from level 2 counts comes from more accurate true count conversions, since many level 2 and 3 counts convert to the half deck rather than full deck as most hi-lo users do. Kind of an apples to oranges thing. I convert my hi-lo true count using quarter decks (dividing fractions always came natural to me), so that better acuracy alone may push my results slightly closer to a level 2. Any thoughts on this?

 

[FLASH1296]

Apology

I mistakenly was in Hi-Opt II "pitch game" mode when I posted the erroneous figures that I gave for Zen vs. Hi-Lo.

 

[kewljason]

I mistakenly was in Hi-Opt II "pitch game" mode when I posted the erroneous figures that I gave for Zen vs. Hi-Lo.

Thanx Flash, appreciate your willingness to set the record straight. So what do you believe the gain to be for shoe game. More in the 10% range?

 

[kewljason]

that is fair. completely agree on game speed. only time ill do rainbow is as part of an act or when the dealer cant pay off properly. otherwise speed is too important to give up.

what about the "speed" with which you ramp the bets? ive never compared hi lo to rpc (or to zen for that matter) - do you have the optimal ramps (rounded to nearest unit) for hi lo and rpc? maybe that will shed some light?

(i fully admit i am just playing devils advocate and trying to come up with reasons you didnt see the 10% gain, when in the end, it could just be that enough BJ was not played - not a limit of you of course, just that good ol long run :devil:)

The charts on page 102 of Norm's "Modern Blackjack" seem to confirm that RPC (level 2 count) outperforms hi-lo and Reko by 7-12 percent in shoe games, depending on penetration levels. So I guess my results which only showed an increase of 3-5% based on my 1878 hours was indeed just too small of a sample. I may have to rethink my decision to switch back to hi-lo. A 10% gain would definately be worth my effort.

 

[kewljason]

question about zen count

Simulation show the level 2 Zen count to be more powerful than a level one count like hi-lo and on a par or maybe a hair more powerful than the level 2 RPC. The betting correlation of Zen is .96, lower than RPC (.99) and even lower than level 1 hi-lo (.97) or KO (.98).

So my question is: In 6 or 8 deck games, where betting is the number one factor, how is it that Zen is more powerful?? I know I must be missing something.

 

[iCountNTrack]

Simulation show the level 2 Zen count to be more powerful than a level one count like hi-lo and on a par or maybe a hair more powerful than the level 2 RPC. The betting correlation of Zen is .96, lower than RPC (.99) and even lower than level 1 hi-lo (.97) or KO (.98).

So my question is: In 6 or 8 deck games, where betting is the number one factor, how is it that Zen is more powerful?? I know I must be missing something.

The power of Zen stems from its indices, you will need to use as many indices as you can. If for that matter you compare RPC with only I18 to Zen I18, RPC will beat Zen easily, likewise the gap between Hi-Lo and Zen shrinks if you are only using I18.

I am merging this thread with a recent thread about Zen, Hi-Lo, RPC