Hitting with neg counts

[hawkeye]

A few weekends ago I went on a mad streak at a local casino, running through a 6-deck shoe and losing only 2 or 3 hands, along with 2 or 3 pushes. I was hitting everything like mad. The count was crappy through most of it, running count of like -4 or -5 and not changing much either way. It was onlt $5 a hand, and I was just playing for fun. I won like crazy though.

I'd get a 10/4, dealer shows 10. I hit, get a 6, dealer flips over 18. Then I'd get a 4/2, dealer shows 9, I draw 4 cards to a 21. I drew to a 21 3 times in the span of 5 or 6 hands.

Anyone else ever notice that, when the inverse happens, because the count is so crappy it enables you to hit a lot more without busting?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
Anyone else ever notice that, when the inverse happens, because the count is so crappy it enables you to hit a lot more without busting?

Well sure, when the count is low you can hit more without busting. But that doesn't mean you're making money. You need to get your naturals and doubles to make money, and that happens more often in a high count.

 

[shadroch]

Sure,but in low counts,you have small bets out, are less likely to double down or get Blackjacks. For the Advantage Player, winning in low counts is akin to winning a spring training game. A shoe player needs to win an awful lot of one unit bets as oppossed to a single 12 unit bet with a good count.

 

[hawkeye]

Ah yes, I should mention I'm pretty much a flat better because I don't have enough money to have a big bankroll for putting up huge bets.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Losing Money

If you play negative hands you are losing money, this is why they are negative.:whip: There are indices for negative hands that have you hitting more, they just have you losing less money . Also, the variance is so high that you can win some negative hands in the short run.

 

[hawkeye]

I usually don't have much of a choice. I've tried counting through the shoe and hoping to hit a higher count, but didn't get one for a while. I was just pleasantly surprised on that day that I was winning money when I shouldn't have been. I realize it's against the odds, but that's what made me so happy.

 

[Doofus]

If you play negative hands you are losing money, this is why they are negative.:whip: There are indices for negative hands that have you hitting more, they just have you losing less money . Also, the variance is so high that you can win some negative hands in the short run.

The win rate for negative counts is only fractionally worse than positive counts. It's just that you're betting much less in negative counts and thus are not in a position to lose as much as you will when in a positive count.

Every bad beating I have ever taken at a blackjack table was in a high true count when I had big bets out in the circle. Every one.

 

[sagefr0g]

The win rate for negative counts is only fractionally worse than positive counts. It's just that you're betting much less in negative counts and thus are not in a position to lose as much as you will when in a positive count.

Every bad beating I have ever taken at a blackjack table was in a high true count when I had big bets out in the circle. Every one.

thats what i was thinking. thing is though i believe you have realtively fewer successful double downs and about 0.7% fewer blackjacks in the negative counts. unfortunately thats where the bite comes in.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Am I Missing Something?

The win rate for negative counts is only fractionally worse than positive counts. It's just that you're betting much less in negative counts and thus are not in a position to lose as much as you will when in a positive count.

Every bad beating I have ever taken at a blackjack table was in a high true count when I had big bets out in the circle. Every one.

One takes a bad beating in the long run by playing a lot of negative hands.

Good things happen in the long run when you bet big in high true counts.

 

[hawkeye]

I didn't mean to put out the idea that negative counts are the new black or anything, just an antidote about that one in a hundred time when I hit every damn bust hand I had. Never hit so many 14-16 hands just right.

I agree, only positive is good. I'll get there one day, don't have a big enough bankroll.

 

[shadroch]

I didn't mean to put out the idea that negative counts are the new black or anything, just an antidote about that one in a hundred time when I hit every damn bust hand I had. Never hit so many 14-16 hands just right.

I agree, only positive is good. I'll get there one day, don't have a big enough bankroll.

Is that like losing money on every sale, but making it up with volume?
You build BR by not paying in shitty situations,not by playing them.

 

[hawkeye]

I hear ya, I really do. I'm not a serious enough player to spend the time wonging and only hitting positive counts. I've been trying, but I don't have enough free time to do it. This particular one I'm talking about started from the top of the shoe, so I had a decent shot at it being good, right?

I realize that playing at the $5 limit still requires a much bigger bankroll than I'm at now, but the funny thing is I do fairly decent at BS and trying to hit anything positive I can. I'll get there.

 

[shadroch]

Keep your attitude good,and you certainly will.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

One takes a bad beating in the long run by playing a lot of negative hands.

Good things happen in the long run when you bet big in high true counts.

In the long run. In the short run, if you ever leave a casino with your pockets empty you can be sure it was due to losing in high counts. This is why we need large bankrolls.

 

[hawkeye]

This is the sad realization that I'm coming to, the need for a large bankroll. I've been playing blackjack for years, but only recently trying to be an AP and I realize that there is a financial requirement to a long-term commitment to the AP style. Now if my company hadn't stopped giving out raises and/or bonuses for the last few years maybe I'd be somewhere!

I kind of asked this question in another thread and it didn't get answered too well, but given what I've written about my playing situation, what's the bankroll I need to shoot for? 6d, DAS, split to 4 hands, decent penetration, no heat.

 

[blackjack avenger]

You Know, I Know You Know, I Know I Know, Do They Know?

In the long run. In the short run, if you ever leave a casino with your pockets empty you can be sure it was due to losing in high counts. This is why we need large bankrolls.

I agree,
However, playing correctly in the short run leads to long run success. I know you kow what you are doing and hopefully:joker::whip: I know what I am doing (and I do) but Hawkeye appears to not quite understand.

 

[Brock Windsor]

This is the sad realization that I'm coming to, the need for a large bankroll. I've been playing blackjack for years, but only recently trying to be an AP and I realize that there is a financial requirement to a long-term commitment to the AP style. Now if my company hadn't stopped giving out raises and/or bonuses for the last few years maybe I'd be somewhere!

I kind of asked this question in another thread and it didn't get answered too well, but given what I've written about my playing situation, what's the bankroll I need to shoot for? 6d, DAS, split to 4 hands, decent penetration, no heat.

Spread of 1-12? Strictly backcounting two tables? Full Kelly betting? You could use a frequency table to crunch the numbers but as a rough guide plan on making less than 2units/hr and having a 1000 unit bankroll that you could stand a 10% chance of losing. Anything under 10K you could probably build it up faster with a part time job than with BJ.
BW

 

[Automatic Monkey]

This is the sad realization that I'm coming to, the need for a large bankroll. I've been playing blackjack for years, but only recently trying to be an AP and I realize that there is a financial requirement to a long-term commitment to the AP style. Now if my company hadn't stopped giving out raises and/or bonuses for the last few years maybe I'd be somewhere!

I kind of asked this question in another thread and it didn't get answered too well, but given what I've written about my playing situation, what's the bankroll I need to shoot for? 6d, DAS, split to 4 hands, decent penetration, no heat.

If you have a steady and good paying job with plenty of disposable income, you can play with what we call a "replenishable bankroll." In other words, your next bankroll is only a payday away.

Yes, be prepared to lose a couple of weeks pay in an hour at the casino. It will happen! But you will also win a couple of weeks pay in an hour too, and that will also happen, slightly more frequently.

A good rule is to play for a win rate no less that what you earn per hour at your regular job. Determine what kind of stakes you need to play for to do that, then determine how much money you need to have in your pocket to have a reasonably low chance (like, a few percent chance) of losing it all in a session. You might need a simulator for this.

 

[TheApprentice]

caught between a ...

As someone in the category of "no real BR", I am torn between the feelings that :

1. Brock's idea that a part time job would be quicker $ maker than BJ may be true, but how much more FUN is BJ?!

and...

2. AutoMonkey's comments about a replenishing BR are really scary to think about when you've got a family/mortgage/etc to keep up with (I'm more scared of my wife than the variance!)

A happy middle road must be the answer, eh?

 

[shadroch]

Start with a small BR, and add to it as you can. I started by depositing $200 in an on-line account and adding $17.76 a week to it.My first trip to Vegas,I had a dedicated BJ BR of less than $400. I had to play $2 tables at El Cortez and $1 tables at Slots of Fun.After winning small amounts 8 out of ten days,I felt I could splurge by hitting the $5 tables.
That was in 2001. Between my winnings and gradually upping my weekly deposits,I now have well into five figures set aside. Way more than my bet level calls for.
It can be slow and frustrating,but if you don't start now,when will you?
My hopes and intention is to slowly build this BR to $25,000.By then I believe I'll have the skills and discipline I'll need and match my BR from some other investments and have a $50,000 one.I figure thats about three years out.