Hitting with neg counts

[TheApprentice]

encouragement

Start with a small BR, and add to it as you can. I started by depositing $200 in an on-line account and adding $17.76 a week to it.My first trip to Vegas,I had a dedicated BJ BR of less than $400. I had to play $2 tables at El Cortez and $1 tables at Slots of Fun.After winning small amounts 8 out of ten days,I felt I could splurge by hitting the $5 tables.
That was in 2001. Between my winnings and gradually upping my weekly deposits,I now have well into five figures set aside. Way more than my bet level calls for.
It can be slow and frustrating,but if you don't start now,when will you?
My hopes and intention is to slowly build this BR to $25,000.By then I believe I'll have the skills and discipline I'll need and match my BR from some other investments and have a $50,000 one.I figure thats about three years out.

THANKS a lot for the encouragement, shadroch. It seems that all one ever hears about is how you need to have the BR to back up your play variance, but not a lot of postings detailing HOW to get from point A to B. Your plan provides some realistic goals for someone in my beginning position. Thx:toast:

 

[shadroch]

Fred Renzey states that for 300 hours of play,you should have 115 Max bets in your BR to be 98% safe. If you are willing to accept a 10% risk,you only need 75, in a shoe game

For 25 hours,you need 40 max bets to be 98% safe, and 28 for a 90% chance in a shoe game.

In a Double Deck,you need more units,but less money as your spread is much lower. He assumes a 1-6 DD spread and a 1-10 Shoe game spread.

That assumes you are playing at an advantage.A BS player has no advantage and should only play with money he can easily afford to lose.

 

[Sonny]

It seems that all one ever hears about is how you need to have the BR to back up your play variance, but not a lot of postings detailing HOW to get from point A to B.

Also check the Frequently Asked Questions thread :

Q: I didn’t realize that I needed such a big bankroll to count cards. Can I still play with a smaller bankroll?
A: Sure, as long as you understand the risks you are taking. If you are able to add some money to your bankroll regularly then you can play a little more aggressively. Here are some tips on playing with a small bankroll and supplementing your bankroll:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5655
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5939
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9604
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9258

-Sonny-

 

[hawkeye]

Thanks shadroch, for the simple post instead of the condescension. I love when people on the internet act smarter than everyone.

 

[TheApprentice]

Ditto,

Thanks shadroch, for the simple post instead of the condescension. I love when people on the internet act smarter than everyone.

Ditto, and thanks for the info, too (Sonny as well).

One follow up...

Is it worth it trying to do this slow growth approach at my local southwest reservation casinos, which have less than favorable rules (H17, NDAS as examples) and mostly $10 or $5 min tables, or just save up for Vegas and go to the low-roller $2-3 casinos??
I'm looking for opinions at this time, not hard math, but the cost of travel would have to be figured into Vegas, whereas there are a handful of ind casinos within a half hour drive.

 

[shadroch]

I'll give you the advice that was given me.
There is only one Vegas.Go for a weekend and let it rip.
Perhaps its not the best advice,but it worked for me.

 

[Mimosine]

i started off with a BR of $700 and built it up slowly playing a weak game, but using wonging to my advantage. Max bets were around $20-$30 at first. got BR up to $1400 quite quickly (+ var), lost some back, but then started to "invest" $200 to $300 a month, that with logging a dozen or so hours of play a month, raising max bets to $40-$50 while BR was around $3k has got me sitting on about $5k in less than 1 year. 50% of that is "my money" the other is theirs. I plan on continuing this approach until my max bets hit the level of hourly EV i would like to see, that will provide me with some longevity at the joints I frequent. and will give me some of my money back to put in the other (nonBJ) bank account.

My BR is replenishable, so I bet higher than 1% of total BR, right now max betting at about 1.5-1.6% of BR. I have about 65 max bets in the BR.

 

[hawkeye]

Apprentice, where you at? I'm in the Phoenix area.

 

[TheApprentice]

I'm around....

I shared a little story about an adventure at Casino AZ recently.
A little worried about some of the stories I've seen alluded to re.how the indian casino's may be more apt to 'backroom', but at my level, pppbbbblllttt

 

[shadroch]

From Phoenix,don't they run day buses to Laughlin? The games there aren't terrible,and comps are easy to come by.
In fact,if interested,I think I might have a two nite comp Friends and Family postcard lieing around..

 

[ricopuno]

I would like to give my opinion regarding the profitability of negative counts.

I think we can categorize negative counts into 2 and these are profitable negative count and non profitable negative count.

Example:

Profitable negative count:

- If after the shuffle and cut the first deck have a clump of negative cards, this situation is profitable because all the high cards will come out at the beginning of the shoe but the count will start at negative. This situation is most profitable for shuffle trackers and still profitable for card counters but not as much compared to the shuffle trackers because the card counters will be flat betting in this part of the deck.

Non-Profitable negative count:

- If the negative cards are evenly spread out through out the shoe and the average composition of the shoe is 5 cards negative and 3 cards positive or zero then the count will always be in negative except at the end of the shoe in which the count has to balance. In this situation the count is not profitable
for card counters.

 

[sagefr0g]

I would like to give my opinion regarding the profitability of negative counts.

I think we can categorize negative counts into 2 and these are profitable negative count and non profitable negative count.

Example:

Profitable negative count:

- If after the shuffle and cut the first deck have a clump of negative cards, this situation is profitable because all the high cards will come out at the beginning of the shoe but the count will start at negative. This situation is most profitable for shuffle trackers and still profitable for card counters but not as much compared to the shuffle trackers because the card counters will be flat betting in this part of the deck.

Non-Profitable negative count:

- If the negative cards are evenly spread out through out the shoe and the average composition of the shoe is 5 cards negative and 3 cards positive or zero then the count will always be in negative except at the end of the shoe in which the count has to balance. In this situation the count is not profitable
for card counters.

you know what? i like what you did there. i like it a real lot. not sure your logic is all correct cause of i just don't know. but as one who mainly plays all i find it of great interest to try and have a concept of what going on in negative shoes, counts.
got any more? lay it on us lol.

 

[N&B]

I kinda liked it too, except they put that burn card in there so we don't get balanced. My unofficial, nebulous statistical thought for the day... for 6D 75% pen, if the TC is +4 with a deck before the burn, it usually doesn't balance by the burn card. But the same is true at -4, and nobody plays that if AP. The caveat is using different AP methods to arrive at +4.