Hot table- any studies

[aslan]

Tarzan's breathtaking revelation that a shoe composed of balanced high and low cards,
BUT disproportionately over-represented 7's, 8's, and 9's, is nightmarish, warrants discussion.

Actually Tarzan's Theorem references the 6,7,8,9 grouping.

I am brain dead today.

By tomorrow Tarzan will clarify this entire issue for us.

Yes, he does ref the 6-9's, and the bad set is when more than half of them are gone, not the reverse as I recall.

 

[aslan]

Quote from Tarzan

Lets talk about the specific parameters. Using Gordon/DHME/Tarzan system you are tracking the ratio of 6-9's as one of the parts of the big picture. Having a huge quantity of 6-9's in the discard rack, leaving a quantity of 2-5's and 10's that are about even with each other shows up as a relatively neutral count on a hi-lo system, right? It's a strange and unique situation but when it occurs LOOK OUT. This is in fact the single most prevalent common denominator to having the dealer come out quite favorably in so called neutral counts and a situation that I have learned to walk away from the table when I encounter it. It is the icing on the cake (for the casino and in the casino's favor) when tackling "the dealer from hell".

As he says, it's when a huge quantity of 6-9's are in the discard rack.

 

[Gamblor]

Great information, this weekend was the second time in a row at my fav casino in vegas a dealer gave me a heads up about a table/shoe that's giving away money. Even though these dealers are not that knowledgable in this game, they do see patterns and trends, just a thought, but did me well this weekend
Tallman

Not outside of the realm of possibility. Who besides us sit there at the table all day subconsciously picking up on and processing patterns of cards.

When a dealer is expresses negative emotions about the cards, I'm not in no hurry to play that game, I'll say that.

 

[blackjacktilt]

This topic is indeed very interesting, but I think understanding is much easier than practical application. Any counting system gives you the key: High cards are valuable to the player, while low cards are valuable to the dealer.
A bunch of cards is a mixture of high, low, and neutral cards, in a randomized order. Random means that this is a smooth distribution, but since cards are not smeared over the whole shoe, but on distinct positions, cards in a a shoe exhibits "shot noise".

Imagine you get a cup of (raw) rice, and you throw it on the floor. The rice will distribute on the floor over a (more or less) flat random distribution. But since the rice is granular, the distance between some grains will be a lot closer than the average distance, and on some larger spots there will be substantially less grains.

This is shot noise, it's origin is the pure random and independent distribution of a fixed number of granular particles. The number of grains on any given area follows a Poisson distribution. Like the grains of rice, high, neutral, and low cards distribute in the shoe in a random shuffle. There will be high cards that are closer together than the average distance, and cards will be farer away than average. As each card is independent (unless they are somehow "sticky") this local clustering is completely random. In any segment of the shoe, the number of specific cards will also follow a Poisson distribution.
This is very well understood.

The problem is: as the origin is in complete randomization, there is nothing to exploit from such an Poisson shoe.
The only way to exploit a perfectly shuffled shoe is to implement a non-poisson distribution. One method would be indeed "sticky" rice: If you would wet the grains to make them sticky, then two neighbouring grains will tend to be closes together during the throw than statistically expected (if they were dry). This would be artificially clustering wet grains (again, on the average). If you could do something similar with the cards, which means changing the physical properties of how they "interact", it could be used to exploit the game. High cards would then likely to be followed by other high cards, (and vice versa low cards followed by low cards). Then, even with a perfect shuffle procedure, you would maintain an advantage with an adaptive strategy.

Changing the physical properties is not a fiction, you can make the game of 3-card Monte much much smaller (with electrons or similar quantum objects). You are then entering the quantum-mechanical regime, where particles behave substantial different than expected. A version of something like 2of5-card Monte has been created by physicists, where even a completely random strategy (i.e. picking spots at random) performs substantially worser than naive probabilities would predict.

So, unless you change the physical properties of cards, you will always end up with an poisson distributed shoe, which gains no information for the player, as cards do not interact, and will thus be completely randomized.

Great explanation, but you just wasted the few minutes it took to write this up. It's not worth trying to educate people who post silly things like this. Commendable though.....

 

[aslan]

Great explanation, but you just wasted the few minutes it took to write this up. It's not worth trying to educate people who post silly things like this. Commendable though.....

Silly boy! What ever happened to the notion that there is no bad question? Whatever happened to the notion of thinking outside the box? Whatever happened to approaching everything with an open mind? What ever happened to the notion that one must crawl before he can walk? Insult, arrogance or condescension, if anyone is guilty of such, are never appropriate responses (unless I do it - :grin. Thank you, Mango, for your contribution to this discussion.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Silly boy! What ever happened to the notion that there is no bad question? Whatever happened to the notion of thinking outside the box? Whatever happened to approaching everything with an open mind? What ever happened to the notion that one must crawl before he can walk? Insult, arrogance or condescension, if anyone is guilty of such, are never appropriate responses (unless I do it - :grin. Thank you, Mango, for your contribution to this discussion.

I agree, but posting such ignorance is downright silly. I commend Mango for his response. It was well stated, it just falls upon deaf ears. I should just stop responding to the Voodoo posts lol.

 

[shadroch]

In all seriousness, I was once pointed to another table by a dealer I was pretty friendly with. Dealer at that table had a terrible attitude. Evidently she was being forced to work overtime and made more mistakes than I've seen from an experianced dealer. Most were in my favor and the few in her favor she corrected when it was pointed out. We did have to listen to her rag about the union and management. She was so pissed the PB wouldn't come near the table.
I'd call that a hot table.

 

[blackjacktilt]

In all seriousness, I was once pointed to another table by a dealer I was pretty friendly with. Dealer at that table had a terrible attitude. Evidently she was being forced to work overtime and made more mistakes than I've seen from an experianced dealer. Most were in my favor and the few in her favor she corrected when it was pointed out. We did have to listen to her rag about the union and management. She was so pissed the PB wouldn't come near the table.
I'd call that a hot table.

Hot because the dealer was making mistakes which favored you. Not because of any silly superstition.

 

[Gamblor]

In all seriousness, I was once pointed to another table by a dealer I was pretty friendly with. Dealer at that table had a terrible attitude. Evidently she was being forced to work overtime and made more mistakes than I've seen from an experianced dealer. Most were in my favor and the few in her favor she corrected when it was pointed out. We did have to listen to her rag about the union and management. She was so pissed the PB wouldn't come near the table.
I'd call that a hot table.

Yep, had similar experience with dealer who was let go from AC, and dealing somewhere else he didn't seem to like being. Didn't actually seem to care what the cards on the table were

 

[shadroch]

Hot because the dealer was making mistakes which favored you. Not because of any silly superstition.

The point is that I was directed there by another dealer. Tall Man might have been offered a similar opportunity.

 

[tallmanvegas]

The point is that I was directed there by another dealer. Tall Man might have been offered a similar opportunity.

Exactly, 2 seperate occassions, both dealers told me as i sat down that the person who just left took X dollars from them. I dont remember the correct amount couple months ago, but this specific trip, the dealer who was very friendly told me, the person just left with 20k. He does this the standard shuffle, i begin betting, and couldnt do anything wrong. Even with my poor counting skills to look for any large amounts of high or low cards, nothing was showing me an advantage, however, it was probably one of my best shoes in only 5 minutes, up 15k. Im not sure if this is voodoo, or coincidence. I believe there is something more to this then just a fluke. Based on these experiences, i will utilize my communication skills first before sitting down at a table. Also, i only play heads up with the dealer, so my pickings are slim in the high limit area, typically in vegas there are always 2 empty tables open.
Tallman

 

[Gamblor]

Even with my poor counting skills to look for any large amounts of high or low cards, nothing was showing me an advantage, however, it was probably one of my best shoes in only 5 minutes, up 15k. Im not sure if this is voodoo, or coincidence. I believe there is something more to this then just a fluke.

Its possible there might be something to it, but it would be VERY dangerous to rely on this heavily.

 

[tallmanvegas]

Its possible there might be something to it, but it would be VERY dangerous to rely on this heavily.

There has to be some study done on shoes like these. For now, if im choosing between to empty tables, im chatting it up first, any possible advantage/help/advice is better than a guess
tallman

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

any possible advantage/help/advice is better than a guess
tallman

Yes, but none of those (at least in a meaningful form) will come from dealer x telling you that dealer y gave away $z. At least you put it in the correct forum, though.

 

[tallmanvegas]

Yes, but none of those (at least in a meaningful form) will come from dealer x telling you that dealer y gave away $z. At least you put it in the correct forum, though.

How do many of the AP players here pick a table. Say, there are 3 open tables, same rules, 1 on 1?
Tallman

 

[Gamblor]

How do many of the AP players here pick a table. Say, there are 3 open tables, same rules, 1 on 1?
Tallman

There's many many other considerations besides rules.

 

[tallmanvegas]

There's many many other considerations besides rules.

Please advise as im not aware, thanks
Tallman

 

[shadroch]

Hair and eye color are near, but not at, the top of the list.
Never play with a female dealer with blond hair and brown eyes. Never.Ever.

 

[tallmanvegas]

Hair and eye color are near, but not at, the top of the list.
Never play with a female dealer with blond hair and brown eyes. Never.Ever.

Oh, ok...

 

[Gamblor]

Hair and eye color are near, but not at, the top of the list.
Never play with a female dealer with blond hair and brown eyes. Never.Ever.

I agree with with sharoch's first statement, but not his second. Throw in gender, age and other characteristics of the dealer, and not just the dealer.

Pen, speed of dealer, etc., are of course the more obvious ones. The angle you sit at to pit crew and the terminal they use is a consideration for me. If any particular table is closer to another busy table vs if its isolated. Bunch of others.