Hourly Earnings

[eps6724]

I have read a number of places that on average the expected earnings is about $8-11 per hour playing blackjack. Could someone explain how this is figured, and how to figure it? I am not asking about hours played vs. hands played and amount of people at the table etc. rather:
How do the various rules affect this (das, h17, etc. etc.)
How do the amount of decks affect this
If most money at Bj is made ON the bj, dd's, & splits, how does one figure this into the equasion
Is this flat-betting or with a spread (also speaks to the above)
How do you figure in the volatility of ANY count system
And finally-is there a way for me to figure what my expected return SHOULD be given any of these perameters (and any others that I might have forgotten?)

Any help would be welcome, except please, I'm delicate-don't call me names. (You can, however, throw chips at me. PM me for a location!)

 

[supercoolmancool]

The best thing to do would be to get the book Blackjack Attack or a blackjack calculator. Blackjack attack will tell you exactly what you want to know for every game and conditions. That's how I calculate my EV.

 

[shadroch]

I have no idea where you got the $8-11 an hour figure,but if you are using BS and flat betting,it is simply wrong.It is my understanding(not my experiance) that a proficent counter should average slightly less than one base bet per hour on a game with good rules.

 

[Sonny]

Great questions!

I have read a number of places that on average the expected earnings is about $8-11 per hour playing blackjack

You can’t really put a dollar sign on it until you know what the player’s unit size and bet spread is. In general, most card counters expect about 1-2 units per hour. Different unit sizes will produce different win rates.

How do the various rules affect this (das, h17, etc. etc.)
How do the amount of decks affect this

The rules and number of decks will change the house edge. All things being equal, the higher house edge will be tougher to beat so the player will need to use a more aggressive betting style (either a bigger spread or more backcounting or both) in order to get the same EV. The most important factor, however, is the level of penetration. A deeply cut game with bad rules can easily be better than a poorly cut game with great rules.

If most money at Bj is made ON the bj, dd's, & splits, how does one figure this into the equasion

Most people us simulation software to find out what advantage they have at each TC. Then they will know how much to bet at each TC and how much their EV should be. The software does most of the work for you.

Is this flat-betting or with a spread (also speaks to the above)

Most EVs for card counting assume a certain bet spread. Flat betting is pretty much worthless, even for very advanced players.

How do you figure in the volatility of ANY count system

The volatility of a system will mostly be a factor of the betting strategy. The software usually helps with this too. It can calculate how much you usually win/lose per hand. It will then use that information to calculate your variance and standard deviation. It is possible to figure it our manually, but it is very complicated because of the many variables that affect it (bet ramp, TC frequency, playing strategy, game rules, and so on).

And finally-is there a way for me to figure what my expected return SHOULD be given any of these perameters (and any others that I might have forgotten?)

If you are playing BS then you can just multiply your average bet by the house edge to find your EV. Your SD will be about 1.13 units per hand, so you can multiply that by the square root of the number of hands you want to look at. For example, a 200-hand session would have a SD of 1.13 * Sqrt(200) = 16 units.

For a card counter, your EV is your average EV per hand multiplied by the number of hands you want to look at (most people assume 60-100 hands per hour). The best way to get this is through software. Any reliable BJ simulator will be able to give you the EV and SD of any game/playing style. You can use those two pieces of data to calculate things like ROR, SCORE, N0, and all that fun stuff.

-Sonny-

 

[eps6724]

I guess what I am REALLY curious about is how can one actually plan on having certain things happening? In reference to splits, double downs etc., or is this simply where the variance comes in? I understand certain things are in stone-i.e. what rules are worth, pen worth, etc. Am I safe in assuming that the "money making hands" (including higher vs. lower counts, strategy changes, dd's, splits, etc.) is what makes the volativity go up and down? And if so, can anyone REALLY put a "the average per our is..."?

 

[Sonny]

Am I safe in assuming that the "money making hands" (including higher vs. lower counts, strategy changes, dd's, splits, etc.) is what makes the volativity go up and down?

Yes the “money hands” are part of it, along with the outcome of your big bets. Any time you have more money on the table you have raised your variance.

And if so, can anyone REALLY put a "the average per our is..."?

Yes, but the key term is average. There will be sessions where you hardly get any splitting or doubling opportunities. There will also be sessions where you don’t see any good counts and will not be raising your bets. But, on average, your results will approach what you expect to see.

The fact that you will so rarely have an “average” session shows how important it is to understand variance. Just because you expect to make $20/hr doesn’t mean that you will, even after a few hundred hours of play! Your EV will tell you what your average winnings should be and your SD will tell you how far away you can expect to be in the short run.

-Sonny-

 

[eps6724]

The fact that you will so rarely have an “average” session shows how important it is to understand variance. Just because you expect to make $20/hr doesn’t mean that you will, even after a few hundred hours of play! Your EV will tell you what your average winnings should be and your SD will tell you how far away you can expect to be in the short run.
-Sonny-

So...the concept of an "average" cannot be established for a very LONG time I am assuming, so I probably won't worry too much about when (or if) I get into the 'average'. Might I be so bold as to assume that your aforementioned book "Blackjack Attack" will give me some indication of what I can expect for EV? (I take it that THIS is the number I should concentrate on).

 

[supercoolmancool]

Blackjack Attack will conveniently tell you everything you want to know. I was going to buy a blackjack calculator but Blackjack Attack is way cheaper and it tells me everything that a calculator would. I don't want to be an advertisement but It is a really nice resource.

 

[sagefr0g]

So...the concept of an "average" cannot be established for a very LONG time I am assuming, so I probably won't worry too much about when (or if) I get into the 'average'. Might I be so bold as to assume that your aforementioned book "Blackjack Attack" will give me some indication of what I can expect for EV? (I take it that THIS is the number I should concentrate on).

then there is the concept of NO... It is defined as "the number of rounds that must be played, with a fixed betting spread, such that the accumulated expectation equals the accumulated standard deviation As such, it is a measure of how many rounds must be played to overcome a negative fluctuation of one standard deviation with such a fixed spread."
i'll go out on a limb and say a typical NO is circa 30,000 hands give or take ten thousand or so.

 

[QFIT]

Blackjack Attack will conveniently tell you everything you want to know. I was going to buy a blackjack calculator but Blackjack Attack is way cheaper and it tells me everything that a calculator would.

I knew I shouldn't have provided all those tables in BJA

 

[eps6724]

O.K. thanks for everything! I'll chew on this a bit more, and see what I can glean from everything, go out an buy (as my wife puts it) ANOTHER book on blackjack (hey, do I say that when she buys ANOTHER pair of shoes?) and study some more. (If I did say that to her, I am afraid she'll "throw some chips (or shoes) at me!!!")

Or, perhaps once again I am analyzing too much!

Oh well, again-thanks for the input!

 

[captheathmalc]

I think Sonny said it best, when he said that you cannot determine the income w/o first knowing what is being bet.

However, I can tell you a couple of things:

#1: If you are only making $8-$11 an hour......don't quit your day job.

#2: Most professional Card-counters expect to win 1/4 of their minimum bet per hour. Keep in-mind...most pros don't have a $10.00 minimum bet.

 

[ScottH]

I think Sonny said it best, when he said that you cannot determine the income w/o first knowing what is being bet.

However, I can tell you a couple of things:

#1: If you are only making $8-$11 an hour......don't quit your day job.

#2: Most professional Card-counters expect to win 1/4 of their minimum bet per hour. Keep in-mind...most pros don't have a $10.00 minimum bet.

I think most counters expect to make much more than 1/4th of a unit. To only make 1/4th of a unit, that must not be a very good game.

 

[shadroch]

I think most counters expect to make much more than 1/4th of a unit. To only make 1/4th of a unit, that must not be a very good game.

It depends on the dealers tells and the overall mood of the table.

 

[ScottH]

It depends on the dealers tells and the overall mood of the table.

And whether or not the ash trays are full! :laugh:

 

[supercoolmancool]

You guys laugh. But this guy is getting advantages you could only dream of with perfect cover. No card counting and no heat with a conservative tell strategy.

 

[ScottH]

You guys laugh. But this guy is getting advantages you could only dream of with perfect cover. No card counting and no heat with a conservative tell strategy.

Dealer tells are not worth much nowadays due to the peek devices...

 

[supercoolmancool]

Dealer tells are not worth much nowadays due to the peek devices...

Correct

The dealer looks in his little table-mirror. You watch his eyes/mouth/shoulders/hands and the way he moves to the shoe. You will find that they are very consistent.

Obviously, these "tells" only matter when a T or A is up, but since that will happen on average once every third hand......

He gets it. You gotta go to the games. Then you get the advantage. Obviously that's what he does. Actually going to the games. That's what separates the wanna-be's from the pros.

 

[shadroch]

What separates the goats from the sheep is that goats don't blindly follow.

So the dealer looks in his little mirror and sees either the card that makes a BJ,or nothing.You don't need to study his body language to find that out.

 

[supercoolmancool]

Not all dealers give tells. You want to find dealers who are emotionally involved. Trust me this is a real strategy that both Stanford Wong and Ian Anderson write about and use.