hourly winrate for TCP?

[Lonesome Gambler]

yea, I got a few aces mixed up with 2s, but my eyes are learning quick!

2.4% is still 2.4% even with $100@45hands/hr that's still $108/hr. am I missing something here as to why you wouldn't play it?

Variance/risk aversion. If you're not getting paints, there's a good chance you're missing other stuff. Suddenly it's not even 2.4% any more. And if you miss ANY Aces, just move along.

 

[mjbballar23]

yea, I got a few aces mixed up with 2s, but my eyes are learning quick!

2.4% is still 2.4% even with $100@45hands/hr that's still $108/hr. am I missing something here as to why you wouldn't play it?

because the variance is extreme and the game speed is slow. Please dont overbet your bankroll on this game.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

How would you get heat? You have the same bet every time...

Unless you're laying your head down on the table or something!

 

[21forme]

How would you get heat? You have the same bet every time...

Unless you're laying your head down on the table or something!

Heat happens in 3CP. If you have a big win, if you don't bet pairs plus, etc.

 

[zoomie]

How would you get heat? You have the same bet every time...

Unless you're laying your head down on the table or something!

I'm guessing that the PCs are as aware of the HC opportunity as we are - it's in the Wizard's book BTW - and their attention will be drawn to any big bettor. Then you and the dealer are toast.

 

[NightStalker]

Thread like these

I'm guessing that the PCs are as aware of the HC opportunity as we are - it's in the Wizard's book BTW - and their attention will be drawn to any big bettor. Then you and the dealer are toast.

helps the dumb side and then people ask about heat on those games..

 

[moo321]

yea, I got a few aces mixed up with 2s, but my eyes are learning quick!

2.4% is still 2.4% even with $100@45hands/hr that's still $108/hr. am I missing something here as to why you wouldn't play it?

I would honestly not recommend playing it if you can't pick off the aces.

 

[zengrifter]

For all the hoohaa about HCing 3CP, the effective win-rate per hour would only be equal to a decent BJ staright-counting game.

ZG incorrectly assumes that a good 3CP game is about equal to a good counting game in terms of win-rate. While the game is much slower and the variance is higher, the bankroll requirements are significantly lower when considering different win-rates.

Would you please show a simple comparison math of the two, because I don't readily get it. Compare say a good 2D counting rate (65 SCORE) at say 130 hands/hr vs the more common 3CP version with 80% read and 40 hands/hr. Help me see the ignorance of my previous comment. Thanks! zg

 

[NightStalker]

His statement is self contradictory

Would you please show a simple comparison math of the two, because I don't readily get it. Compare say a good 2D counting rate (65 SCORE) at say 130 hands/hr vs the more common 3CP version with 80% read and 40 hands/hr. Help me see the ignorance of my previous comment. Thanks! zg

Variance high and low bankroll requirements :O
But his results are correct:
For same bank and same RoR threshold, 3cp perfect read would outcome 0.5/2 deck h17,ds game. But condering N0 and score threshold: bj is way better. 80% 3cp is way too -EV..

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

An 80% 3CP game is not playable, in my opinion. A 100% game is rare, but you need to be close to 100% to even bother with such a high-variance venture. But again, the benefit doesn't come from having a higher WR, it comes from lower BR requirements to maintains low RoR vs. blackjack. And the amount of time it takes to reach the "long run" is shorter.

As far as the issue with not being able to catch Aces--it's not a matter of whether or not anyone would "recommend" playing a game where you can't accurately call Aces, as this game is -EV to begin with.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Variance high and low bankroll requirements :O

Whose statements are contradictory, mine? 3CP does have high variance--about double what you would expect at blackjack. But the BR requirements are significantly lower than what you would need to make a comparable amount of profit at blackjack.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

"If the player can categorize the dealer's card as an ace, 2-10, or face card, then the player advantage drops to 2.41%. The player should not play at all if he can't distinguish an ace from a 2-10, because the house would have a 2.43% advantage"

Wizard of Odds.

x2.