How did you get into being an AP?

[Automatic Monkey]

If you put the effort into studying the stock market,10% is chicken feed.There is no reason why an educated small investor can't do 17-25% each year...

I can't agree with that. An educated fund manager can't even do 17-25% every year. Not without a degree of risk that makes the real long-term profit a lot lower.

Actually 10% isn't bad at all. Back when I was invested in a lot of corporate paper, they were all paying around 9% on the average and with the good margin rate I was getting I could get a total yield of about 13-14%. Most of the stuff was rated in the BB+ area (a percent or two default risk) which is a good place for a small investor to be; well out of "junk" territory but not the high-rated stuff demanded by the large institutional investors.

 

[mdlbj]

Yup, I've been practicing everyday when not working. I get annuities of 20k a year and plan to build a bankroll ontop of that....and on top of that, invest in the market.....does anyone have any suggestions on that? Let's say my bankroll starts out at $60k...after awhile of both positive and negative variance, I profit $30k. I know this isn't exactly a money managment forum or for financial advisors, but if I'm going at counting for the long run to make money, would investing my origional bankroll of $60k + $10k profit for a year into a portfolio of investments with a return of lets say 10% be a good idea? And by this I mean take out the annual return I've made on my investment (being around 6-$7k) and add it to my bankroll? And in the mean time while I'm making a return in stocks/CD's etc.....I'm using the $20k to count with...obviously reducing my bets accordingly to my ROR factor. Any thoughts on this? Good idea if I plan to count for years and years? I'de appreciate other people's advice as I am quick to cope with new ideas and thoughts.Thank you.

If your getting annuities of 20k a year, you should be fishing, not playing blackjack..

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Fishing.

If your getting annuities of 20k a year, you should be fishing, not playing blackjack..

I would be fishing right now if there was some damn ice!!!! Besides, I'm a catfishing freak in the summer....Blackjack and catfishing is my summer pride and joy.
I figure I have an advantage over most 19 year olds....and have looked outside the box to grow my money to even larger amounts. My reply to ScottH: No I have overcome my "gambling problem" (consisting of about 2 months) after figuring out the common sense of the damn CSM's. I have longterm goals for blackjack, and even though I'm just beginning the advantage play....it is the only way I will play from here on out. And about my question earlier.....I know you guys were talking about stock returns of anywhere from 10-25%, but would taking a portion of profit ($10k for instance) and adding it to my origional bankroll (let's say $60k) and getting x amount of return (10-25% as you guys have debated upon) on my investments in ONE year and adding it to my secondary bankroll ($20k from my previous profit [hypothetically speaking]) be a good way to build a bankroll? Decrease ROR factor? In my eyes....I made $30k off a $60k bankroll....take my $60k add an extra 10k from profit, invest for a year. Keep the other $20k for a bankroll for the one year with a $200 max bet range and when the invested money is ready to be taken out, I only take out the percent yielded and add it to my bankroll and "make more money". I do the same thing year after year and so forth. Thoughts? Too young and "stupid" for this? I know there's gonna be a father-figure on here that's ready to tell me, "Go back to college and make money how you're actually supposed to, you're too young." I'm just curious to see what people think about this idea. What other methods are there for buiding a nice bankroll? Any stories? Thanks fellas.

 

[jimpenn]

Please keep us informed on your progress.

 

[PokerJunky]

I can't agree with that. An educated fund manager can't even do 17-25% every year. Not without a degree of risk that makes the real long-term profit a lot lower.

Actually 10% isn't bad at all. Back when I was invested in a lot of corporate paper, they were all paying around 9% on the average and with the good margin rate I was getting I could get a total yield of about 13-14%. Most of the stuff was rated in the BB+ area (a percent or two default risk) which is a good place for a small investor to be; well out of "junk" territory but not the high-rated stuff demanded by the large institutional investors.

AP is right. It's all risk vs return. Most money managers can't beat a passive index like the S & P, which means if you buy an index fund tracking the S&P you'll be ahead of most mutual find managers. 17 to 25%(in a flat market) is possible if you invest in high beta stock, but be ready for some big losses when the market turns. Good luck.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, I still think college is a good idea.

I imagine the tricky thing about investing with a bankroll is that you are going to need access to vast portions of it. There's a liquidity issue. Let's say you just take a bath, and lost 40% of the bankroll, and need to get some more to keep playing. Well, if it's tied up in stocks, then selling is going to both incur a commission, and quite possibly involve selling at a bad time.

Now, let's compound that, and say that you lose 40% gambling, while 60% that's invested in stocks suffers a 20% drop during a correction.

It's not retirement you're saving for, it's your next trip.

But still, investing the funds in something is a good idea. Right now at the micro level, I'm fine with a high-yield savings account. At higher levels, you'd probably put a portion into something more aggressive, but not too much, like bonds. At the highest levels, no idea.

At the highest levels, you're also going to need to track everything scrupulously, because you're probably begging for an audit.

It would be interesting to find out what some big teams do with their bankroll.

 

[shadroch]

I can't agree with that. An educated fund manager can't even do 17-25% every year. Not without a degree of risk that makes the real long-term profit a lot lower.

Actually 10% isn't bad at all. Back when I was invested in a lot of corporate paper, they were all paying around 9% on the average and with the good margin rate I was getting I could get a total yield of about 13-14%. Most of the stuff was rated in the BB+ area (a percent or two default risk) which is a good place for a small investor to be; well out of "junk" territory but not the high-rated stuff demanded by the large institutional investors.

A fund manager is dealing with multi-million dolla portfolios and has severe restrictions set on him. Myself,with a much smaller portfolio and no one to account to,plus no expenses so to speak,can fly under the radar and produce much better results.Could I duplicate them with a multi-billion dollar portfolio? No,because then I'd be a market maker and many plays would be impossible. Take Empire Racing(NYNY).Its a very thinnly traded stock.As an individual I can buy/sell 100-2,000 shares with no one paying attention to it.Were I to buy 100,000 shares,others would pick it up and follow the trend.I'd also have
trouble unloading them as quickly as I'd like.
My portfolio from last year-Harrahs-up nicely, First Marblehead-up over 100%,Motorola-pretty much broke even and sold,NYNY-up 100%,MNTR-up 20%,
Trafffic Systems-down about 20%,Pepsi-up about 8%,Seaboard-up 35%.Two ETFs -PBJ(fast food) and QQQ(nasdaq) that did about 10-15%Then I was in and out of about 40 stocks in a week or two,mostly small profits,one HR where I made a 60% return in ten days.

 

[CaseyCat]

Yup, I've been practicing everyday when not working. I get annuities of 20k a year and plan to build a bankroll ontop of that....and on top of that, invest in the market.....does anyone have any suggestions on that? Let's say my bankroll starts out at $60k...after awhile of both positive and negative variance, I profit $30k. I know this isn't exactly a money managment forum or for financial advisors, but if I'm going at counting for the long run to make money, would investing my origional bankroll of $60k + $10k profit for a year into a portfolio of investments with a return of lets say 10% be a good idea? And by this I mean take out the annual return I've made on my investment (being around 6-$7k) and add it to my bankroll? And in the mean time while I'm making a return in stocks/CD's etc.....I'm using the $20k to count with...obviously reducing my bets accordingly to my ROR factor. Any thoughts on this? Good idea if I plan to count for years and years? I'de appreciate other people's advice as I am quick to cope with new ideas and thoughts.Thank you.

Consider that $60K earning 10% left alone for 10 years becomes about $155,000 or in 20 years is about $400,000. Add $20K per year and in 20 it would be $1.5 Million. Can you earn more than 10% .... maybe, but in the short run the market can have worse variance than playing BlackJack.

If you do this, consider if you can make more just investing the money than playing BJ. Start slow and make sure you're cut out to be a pro.

I understand your goals and you sound determined, but agree with whover said get an education and "regular" career first. Then play BJ on the side and quit the job if BJ gets lucrative.

Also ..... who knows where BJ is headed? It's changed a LOT in the last 40 years, what about the next 40? What if you're doing great counting, but every Casino starts using CSM's, automated systems that spot and ban counters, or who knows what else. With no education or work experience you'll have nothing to fall back on. I doubt many places would hire a 35 year old former BJ player except for jobs that involve french fries and uniforms.

You should reach for your dreams, but do it cautiously, and with an exit strategy. Playing BJ as a pro is not unlike pro basketball, football or baseball. ... many, many, many try but few make it a meaningful career.

Think about it.

<stepping off soapbox now>

 

[jimpenn]

BJ Trip

Good Post...

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Ok guys, I've calculated it out and did a little bit of research. My friend here works with a financial advisor, he said diversifying my portfolio into different aspects of investing (ie. CD's, Bond's [worthless investment] and also into the stock market), and if I put every penny of my annuities into a fixed 15% annual year and compound it...I reach my first milion at the age of 35. (recieve $20k july 07' and 08', $25k in 09, $25k in 2012, and $100k in 2017 just to give you some numbers)This is without other means of compounding (ie. adding money every month from job, blackjack, etc.)This is the main reason why I've dropped out of college 3 times. It's like do I HONESTLY NEED to go to college? I know it would be a smart idea, but after I'm 35, living off my annual investing profit (about $150,000 a year), would it be worth the time and effort? I dunno, I'm going to college this next fall to take some classes for something to fall back on. For you guys with the helpful posts thank you very much. You've helped me out alot. You guys have a good one.
P.S. Shadroch, maybe you should help me invest in the market! Haha, looks like you've turned out pretty well.

 

[SystemsTrader]

My friend here works with a financial advisor, he said diversifying my portfolio into different aspects of investing (ie. CD's, Bond's [worthless investment] and also into the stock market), and if I put every penny of my annuities into a fixed 15% annual year and compound it...I reach my first milion at the age of 35.

Good luck finding a fixed return of 15% annually. Realistically you should try to achieve about 8% a year over the long run between fixed income and the markets. As someone who makes his living investing in the markets, it is really hard to consistently make anything over 12%. The absolute top traders only make high teens or low twenties over their careers and these guys are the exception and there are very few of them.

My advice would be to keep most of your money in fixed income while you educate yourself in other ways to make better returns. Then when you find those methods make sure you practice strict money management or bet sizing just like professional blackjack players manage their accounts. I could go into more detail here but this board is not the place.

 

[ScottH]

Ok guys, I've calculated it out and did a little bit of research. My friend here works with a financial advisor, he said diversifying my portfolio into different aspects of investing (ie. CD's, Bond's [worthless investment] and also into the stock market), and if I put every penny of my annuities into a fixed 15% annual year and compound it...I reach my first milion at the age of 35. (recieve $20k july 07' and 08', $25k in 09, $25k in 2012, and $100k in 2017 just to give you some numbers)This is without other means of compounding (ie. adding money every month from job, blackjack, etc.)This is the main reason why I've dropped out of college 3 times. It's like do I HONESTLY NEED to go to college? I know it would be a smart idea, but after I'm 35, living off my annual investing profit (about $150,000 a year), would it be worth the time and effort? I dunno, I'm going to college this next fall to take some classes for something to fall back on. For you guys with the helpful posts thank you very much. You've helped me out alot. You guys have a good one.
P.S. Shadroch, maybe you should help me invest in the market! Haha, looks like you've turned out pretty well.

You have to consider the time value of money as well. A million dollars in 20 years is not worth nearly as much as a million dollars today.

An extreme example would be, how much would you pay now to get 1 billion dollars 150 years from now? Nothing, considering you wont be alive. Money to be received in the future is worth less now.

So... gamble away!

 

[bluewhale]

You have to consider the time value of money as well. A million dollars in 20 years is not worth nearly as much as a million dollars today.

An extreme example would be, how much would you pay now to get 1 billion dollars 150 years from now? Nothing, considering you wont be alive. Money to be received in the future is worth less now.

So... gamble away!

very nice post

 

[QFIT]

An extreme example would be, how much would you pay now to get 1 billion dollars 150 years from now? Nothing, considering you wont be alive. Money to be received in the future is worth less now.

So... gamble away!

Ahh, your goals just aren't high enough. I'm planning to be alive in 150 years

 

[ChefJJ]

College???

Rspeirs...if I was in your shoes, I would go to college only if I wanted to party all the time!!!

Seriously though, make your money in stocks and bonds...and use it to support your gambling habit, er, advantage play. Having that money should help take the "pressure" off, but you shouldn't necessarily let your guard down by not sticking to BS with the AP modifications.

Good luck man...I'm happy for you!

 

[ChefJJ]

Casino???

Well it all started with the movie "Casino". I had watched this movie in highschool. This movie was basically about a card counter would make millions playing blackjack.

After watching this movie i asked myself if blackjack could really be beaten and if there was such a thing as card counting. This is where my interest in blackjack began.

Every single day after that, i would go on the internet and literally spend hours going to forums, and reading about how to beat blackjack.

Its been about four or five years now that i've been learning the game of blackjack, and my interest in it has not stopped. I always use to be a gambler, especially sports gambling. However, the problem in sports gambling was that i ALWAYS LOST MONEY.

This was when i told myself that i would never step into a casino unprepared. I hated the idea of the casino having an edge over me. This is why i picked up blackjack, because it is the only beatable game in the casino, and i will NEVER play a losing game.

To end it off, a movie basically sparked an interest in blackjack for me.

The movie "Casino"??? It was about a sports handicapper who ran a casino and is a line maker in real life these days. Not trying to pick an arguement, but if you meant a different movie, I was interested in which one you meant.

 

[Jeff25]

The movie "Casino"??? It was about a sports handicapper who ran a casino and is a line maker in real life these days. Not trying to pick an arguement, but if you meant a different movie, I was interested in which one you meant.

And it is a very good movie.

 

[Cass]

Good luck finding a fixed return of 15% annually. Realistically you should try to achieve about 8% a year over the long run between fixed income and the markets. As someone who makes his living investing in the markets, it is really hard to consistently make anything over 12%. The absolute top traders only make high teens or low twenties over their careers and these guys are the exception and there are very few of them.

My advice would be to keep most of your money in fixed income while you educate yourself in other ways to make better returns. Then when you find those methods make sure you practice strict money management or bet sizing just like professional blackjack players manage their accounts. I could go into more detail here but this board is not the place.

yeah dont forget inflation too! Gotta keep ahead of that!

 

[techster]

Fate brought me to blackjack

I had played a little blackjack before, knew basic strategy, had even fooled around with counting cards. Then late one night I was watching a TV special about the guy from MIT who invented card counting (I know it's sacrelig, but I can't remember his name). It was an interesting show, telling how he convinced a shady character to bankroll him, and finally made his first trip to Reno. His first day to try it out in a real casino was April 1, 1961. How can I rember that date? I was born April 1, 1961. Its fate!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

A fund manager is dealing with multi-million dolla portfolios and has severe restrictions set on him. Myself,with a much smaller portfolio and no one to account to,plus no expenses so to speak,can fly under the radar and produce much better results.Could I duplicate them with a multi-billion dollar portfolio? No,because then I'd be a market maker and many plays would be impossible. Take Empire Racing(NYNY).Its a very thinnly traded stock.As an individual I can buy/sell 100-2,000 shares with no one paying attention to it.Were I to buy 100,000 shares,others would pick it up and follow the trend.I'd also have
trouble unloading them as quickly as I'd like.
My portfolio from last year-Harrahs-up nicely, First Marblehead-up over 100%,Motorola-pretty much broke even and sold,NYNY-up 100%,MNTR-up 20%,
Trafffic Systems-down about 20%,Pepsi-up about 8%,Seaboard-up 35%.Two ETFs -PBJ(fast food) and QQQ(nasdaq) that did about 10-15%Then I was in and out of about 40 stocks in a week or two,mostly small profits,one HR where I made a 60% return in ten days.

What you're saying is partially correct, that a fund manager has restrictions placed on him by higher-ups, but those restrictions are there for a reason. If any one of your stocks crashed (and eventually, one or several of them will) you will probably be taking a loss for the year. Day-trading is much like progression betting in that you can make small profits for a long time, just hope the Big One doesn't hit, and we all know it eventually will. Brokerage fees are significant for small investors too, much like the rake in a low stakes poker game.

Your paradigm of investing is a legitimate one, however I think you might have the advantage miscalculated relative to the volatility (think bet sizing as a function of advantage and variance.) In contrast my fixed income portfolio steams along and pays me hard cash every quarter which doesn't require me to do any selling and is mine to keep forever even if the issuer goes bankrupt. Plus preferred stock investors get generous margin terms, and margin + fixed income = arbitrage... free money.