How large a BR do I need to justify flying out to Vegas?

[eandre]

Wait, sorry this is a comment for the previous message of how do you get comps even if you win.

Don't you get comps wether you win or lose? Say you bet £20 and you either win or lose that bet, you will still get 2 comp points regardless of winning or losing? (saying 1 comp point every £10)?

Your avitar and the fact that you think in pounds rather than dollars means your British? Comps are computed by the pit by assigning an average bet times the length of play. Your buy in, wins, losses do not directly effect your comp rating/thoereticals. It's a very low ratio and varies between casinos and even pit supervision. If you are friendly and a good tipper then your average bet posted for comp purposes may be higher. My experience is that the house computes the comps based on their specific formula and the pit supervisions role is to simply get an average. But remember, we all should be playing for the money...the comps are simply a bonus. You do have to play for a 4 hour period daily if you want to keep your ratings up...short daily sessions will not earn big comps unless you play at least 4 hours collectively at sister properties.

 

[EasyRhino]

Meals are cheap enough and if you are averaging $25 a hand,the EC will comp you a few meals after you give them six good hours.

I have trouble imagining six hours of advantage play at the Cortez without them getting the teeniest bit suspicious.

 

[zengrifter]

I didn't know, but I'm not surprised.

Here's a question: I've heard that hotels would provide associates with ready connections to drugs and loose women for their high rollers (but of course, refrain from providing those services themselves). Any truth to the rumor?

Absolutely there's truth to it. I've seen cocaine delivered right to the table, as well as prostitutes. zg

 

[zengrifter]

I have trouble imagining six hours of advantage play at the Cortez without them getting the teeniest bit suspicious.

Stalker played for more than 6-hours in a session... before they got wise, detained him, and reduced his steroidal mass to a quivering little girl
crying out "HELP HELP, SOMEBODY PLEASE HEEEEELLLLLPPP MMMEEEEEEE. zg

Ps - I've played for more than 6-hrs at a stretch there in recent years... but my action was small -- and --- BUT MY SPREAD WAS BIG. zg

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Absolutely there's truth to it. I've seen cocaine delivered right to the table, as well as prostitutes. zg

That's such a bad idea. You can't even use the cocaine or the prostitutes at the table.

One funny time, there were a couple of TV prostitutes at the table. I used them for cover, pretended I was fooled by their act and was going to go upstairs with them.

 

[GeorgeD]

I gotta feeling that ratholing during a cash back promotion like this would be considered cheating under LV statutes. I wouldn't be surprised if what you sign for the card acknowledges this and agrees you won't do anything to fake your lose. Be extra careful if you try. We know how Vegas treats cheats.

Several months ago, there was a competitive upgrade offer at a local casino - sign up for their premium card and they will reimburse up to 50% of a $500 loss the first hour of play. I played BJ and won about $400 in that hour. Their were some crazy green chip bettors at the table (1 green one hand, a 3 inch high pile the next hand, etc.) I knew the pit would never be able to track greens the way they were flying in and out of the tray, so I very agressively rat-holed greens and wound up getting $225 back for my "loss."

 

[zengrifter]

That's such a bad idea. You can't even use the cocaine .... at the table.

This guy did. Dunes circa '77. zg

 

[21forme]

I gotta feeling that ratholing during a cash back promotion like this would be considered cheating under LV statutes. I wouldn't be surprised if what you sign for the card acknowledges this and agrees you won't do anything to fake your lose. Be extra careful if you try. We know how Vegas treats cheats.

Good thing it wasn't LV, but even so, calling it cheating is a real stretch. There's no law prohibiting you from carrying chips in your pocket, and I never said to anyone how much I won or lost.

The fact that table games were included in the promo surprised me. With machines, there's no question of the win/loss.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

This guy did. Dunes circa '77. zg

Wow, I'd be scared to death. I don't even like seeing a tweaker at the table, too erratic, draws heat to the area.

 

[Kasi]

Because 24 max bets isn't enough when you're Wonging. A Wonger is putting max bets down all the time. .

Depends at what TC a max bet occurs. If it's at TC+5 then he won't be making as many max bets. If it's at TC +3, he'll be making more. And, ideally, one knows how often to expect such counts will occur for that game. It is what it is. Then you know how many max bets to expect for how many hours/hands you expect to play that way.

Wonder what game this guy is planning to play for 20 hours with KO or Hi-Lo. With indexes or not. And whether he's wonging, back-counting etc.

Or whether he might even play a couple different games shoes,DD, etc.

After all, apparently betting almost any game any which way should produce $90/hr no matter what $ bankroll you bring and all at the same risk. Wouldn't even give that a second thought.

 

[EasyRhino]

One funny time, there were a couple of TV prostitutes at the table.

Television or Transvestite?

Or both?

 

[MJ1]

Wonder what game this guy is planning to play for 20 hours with KO or Hi-Lo. With indexes or not. And whether he's wonging, back-counting etc.

I hope to play the 6D game with good rules and table minimum < $25. If good double deck games are available, I would be willing to play them as well.

I have to be prepared for play-all, 2 hands/round. If conditions permit, I will leave the table on negative counts.

After all, apparently betting almost any game any which way should produce $90/hr no matter what $ bankroll you bring and all at the same risk. Wouldn't even give that a second thought.

No way! I wish it were true but it is not. Even with a 40k BR, at 55 rounds/hour, you have to play to around 0.7 kelly to earn $90/hr. This assumes 2x$25 to 2x$325 (spread any higher and the k-f increases) with no leaving the table, Strip rules. Assuming expenses for the trip are 1/3 of EV, then the kelly shoots up to 1.5! OUCH!! SCORE will increase if I leave the table but I have not had a chance to run that simulation.

After expenses are factored in, there is something like a 1/3 chance of losing 1/2 the BR before doubling the bank or 400 hours of play have expired.

Can anybody give me a DD scenario with good rules for Vegas?

When I get a chance, I will post the simulation(s).

MJ

 

[Kasi]

I hope to play the 6D game with good rules and table minimum < $25. If good double deck games are available, I would be willing to play them as well.

I have to be prepared for play-all, 2 hands/round. If conditions permit, I will leave the table on negative counts.



No way! I wish it were true but it is not. Even with a 40k BR, at 55 rounds/hour, you have to play to around 0.7 kelly to earn $90/hr. This assumes 2x$25 to 2x$325 (spread any higher and the k-f increases) with no leaving the table, Strip rules. Assuming expenses for the trip are 1/3 of EV, then the kelly shoots up to 1.5! OUCH!! SCORE will increase if I leave the table but I have not had a chance to run that simulation.

After expenses are factored in, there is something like a 1/3 chance of losing 1/2 the BR before doubling the bank or 400 hours of play have expired.

Can anybody give me a DD scenario with good rules for Vegas?

When I get a chance, I will post the simulation(s).

MJ

That's what I'm talking about - be prepared with a bunch of different plans for a bunch of different games, or even same game played a bunch of different ways, with a bunch of different sims.

If you need help with trip rolls for each/all of the above let me know. It almost sounds like you are well on your way to answering your own question? Is that your main problem - applying a trip roll formula?

When spreading to multiple hands for trips you need more roll than you might think since the generally assumed target win assumes alot of hands but changes a little if a trip-like number of hands played is assumed. Just a general caution.

And forgive me for being a little sarcastic about playing all games at $90/hr with same risk etc. Of course that's ridiculous. I was just hoping you had a better idea of things other than "bring $5k to $10K, maybe more, and spread alot, 1-10, 1-20, somewhere in there, with a max bet of $200 or so with a min bet of $25, sometimes less, sometimes more, while maybe betting to a $40K roll" as if that were actually some sort of plan to risk real money on which sort of seemed like the general advice you were getting when it didn't seem to me they even knew what game(s) you were thinking about in the first place.

I'm all for the power of a sim to guide one in helping to assist how to bet one's money.

 

[MJ1]

I guess my main problem is actually figuring out which games to play and how to plan the attack. I would have to memorize different bet schedules for different games and different rules. That could be a real pain! If the penetration is really good on a DD game with H17, I guess I would have to play it. Problem is I do not know H17 BS and learning it might just slow me down and cause errors at the table. Perhaps I should just use S17 BS for the H17 game and take the loss in EV? I will have to simulate that as well when I have some time.

The other problem is that from reading the advice from other people, it sounds like 40k is way too much bank. Hardly seems that way given my circumstances.
Makes me wonder if I am doing something wrong.

MJ

 

[EasyRhino]

You can play H17 with an S17 and only barely lose out on EV. You can play DAS with NDAS strategy, or play single deck without single-deck-optimized BS, same deal. It's not optimal, but don't let it scare you off an otherwise good game.

At the same time, there's only like 3 changes to H17 basic strategy. Just a couple changes going from DAS -> NDAS. And the single deck basic strategy is kinda sorta similar to index deviations. It's not all that tough to learn.

It's more important to not import you shoe game bet spread to a single deck table, or vice versa.

And there's no such thing as too much bank. The problem is, as bankroll increases, risk aversion also often increases.

 

[Sonny]

I guess my main problem is actually figuring out which games to play and how to plan the attack. I would have to memorize different bet schedules for different games and different rules.

Or you could skim through chapter 10 of Blackjack Attack.

-Sonny-

 

[wvbjplayer]

Hey guys, I live in the Northeast and was wondering how large of a BR one should have to in order to justify flying out to Vegas...20k? 30k? 40k?

I can play both Hi-Lo and KO pretty well. The problem is finding good games which is a tough thing to do on the East coast. So I figure why not fly out to Vegas.

Now, suppose one plays from Fri through Sunday, how many hours can he put in at the tables during that time without overexerting himself and making errors?

How much do you think trip expenses will cost if one does not mind settling for meager accommodations (flight, hotel, meals, car rental, etc)? Don't forget to factor comps into the equation, one can always save money that way.

Which places in Vegas will offer good comps for my action?

Thanks guys,
MJ

Depends... how much do you plan to blow on hookers/strippers? ;-)

 

[Harman]

Depends at what TC a max bet occurs. If it's at TC+5 then he won't be making as many max bets. If it's at TC +3, he'll be making more.

I thought you bet more on a higher TC, am I missing something?

Or do you mean it won't stay a TC of 5 for as long as a TC of 3 ??

 

[CptJackhi-lo]

Please Elaborate

"And there's no such thing as too much bank. The problem is, as bankroll increases, risk aversion also often increases."
If i am up say in EV 3 SD (bankroll in units) above my expectation it would not be a good play to halve or quarter my unit until i hit some bad cards putting my unit gain (bankroll) to get to 1=/< SD above EV and then go back to my original unit? A reverse Kelly?

 

[Kasi]

I thought you bet more on a higher TC, am I missing something? Or do you mean it won't stay a TC of 5 for as long as a TC of 3 ??

I just meant that maybe, in the same game, if playing-all and spreading 1-12 maybe you hit max bet at TC+3. Maybe that means $5-$60 with a $10K roll, a 2000 unit roll.

But if back-counting and never playing a hand less than TC+2 and spreading 1-4, maybe your max bet occurs at TC+7. Maybe that means $75-$300 with a $10K roll, a 133 unit roll.

If choosing to flat-bet and never play a hand less than TC +3, then obviously max bet is always the same at TC+3 or more. Maybe that means $150 with a $10K roll, a 66 unit roll.

Maybe all of the above is playing same $10K roll at same ROR.

The frequencies of the TC's never change, after all, given the whatever assumptions of the sim - pen, rules, count system, use of indexes or not, how TC's are calculated, cover betting, how win rate per hour may change heads-up or at a full table, etc. Neither does the adv % change at each TC given all those assumptions of the sim. Neither does the variance at each of those TC's.

The game is the same. How you bet it changes everything.