How quickly it can turn

[SPX]

Disagree. Both because of your first point (above), and also anecdotal personal experience.

Fair enough. But just remember that "anecdotal" experience is another way of saying real-world experience. After all, the main reason you no longer stick your hand in the fire isn't because you're mother told you not too . . . it's because it burned the sh!t out of you the first time you did it.

 

[BJinNJ]

Resize Bets?

Please bear with a newbie...

Aren't you supposed to resize your bets to remain at kelly, or
some fraction of kelly, during both winning and losing sessions?

I searched for "resize" and came up with this thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=50667&highlight=resize#post50667

If you adjust your bets periodically, a catastrophic loss would be less likely,
IMHO. Something akin to the old schoolyard 'gedanken experiment' of always
cutting the distance to the finish line in half means that you NEVER reach the
finish line. Substitute "zero bankroll" for "the finish line".

BJinNJ

PS For a more technical discussion, search advantageplayer.com for "optimal betting algorithm".

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I understand, but my point is this: Whether or not he wins the next time he sits at the table . . . or the next . . . or the next . . . or the next . . . has NOTHING to do with the fact that he lost this last time. God's honest truth is that he could've sat this last session out and it would have had NO EFFECT on his future results. Don't try to convince me otherwise and please don't try to convince yourself otherwise because if you do then you're not talking about blackjack . . . or math . . . you're talking about metaphysics.

Possibly. But I forgot my cell phone that evening, and had to go back and get it. When I got to the casino that evening, I beat a ploppy to an empty seat by about 10 seconds. If I hadn't been in that game, the whole night would have progressed differently, different tables, different shoes, and being it was such an improbably bad night, if I hadn't forgotten my cell phone it would have probably been a better night.*

Also, and call this whatever you want, but it has always seemed to be true in my experience that a winning night starts off as a winner or turns that way within a relatively short period of time. Losing nights start off bad and usually don't recover. Losing nights are spent losing early on and then trying to make up lost ground the rest of the night.

Can't agree. About 55% of my sessions start off losers and about 60% end up winners. About 55% of your sessions start off losers too.

Of course, on the average, if you start out with a bunch of bad luck you usually won't have a winning night, because you need a bunch of good luck to balance it out and that usually doesn't happen on any night. That's why they call it luck, because it's uncommon.

You are better off just sitting at home on those nights.

* I agree. Now just show me how to figure out which nights those will be by 11 AM, and we'll be all set. I'll plan to take my high colonic that night instead.

If you agree that my last session doesn't have any effect on my next one, why would my first 100 hands of a session have any effect on the next 100 hands? How about next time I start off with bad variance, I'll walk out of the casino, walk back in, and call it a new session? Psychology, fatigue, and unwillingness to bear with losses, yes that adds up over a night and too much of that and it's probably a good time to take a break.

 

[Sonny]

Do you REALLY think that what he did slowed down his winrate?

Yes, absolutely. If his hourly EV is X and he plays for 3 hours then he will have a win rate of 3X, but if he plays for 5 hours then he will have a win rate of 5X. As long as X is a real, positive number (which it is for all advantage players) then his win rate will increase for every hand he plays. Just like with a full-time job, every hour that you are clocked-out is lost pay.

And do you REALLY think that the shoe he sits down to play tomorrow will somehow know about the cards he received on his previous trip and act accordingly?

Of course not, but as he approaches the long run his results will begin to converge on his expected win rate. You won’t be able to see it from shoe to shoe or even session to session, but it does happen over time. That's not voodoo.

Remember the axiom: I'd rather be lucky than good.

That’s fine for some people, but I’d rather be lucky today and good in the long run. Once you start playing enough hands you’ll see your luck slowly disappearing. When all the smoke clears, I’d rather be good in the end when it counts. I don’t mind being unlucky today as long as I know I’ll get it back later. On the other hand, I'd hate to be lucky today and lose it all back in the end.

My only point is that what's important is playing winning hands and not playing losing hands, regardless of external factors that say we should do this or that.

But that’s exactly what he was doing. He wasn’t using external factors like previous results, “cold” shoes, “hot” dealers, win/loss “streaks” or “losing nights” to determine his play. He was using an internal indicator to determine his advantage and betting accordingly. By avoiding negative counts he was not playing the losing hands as best as he could.

But just remember that "anecdotal" experience is another way of saying real-world experience.

No, anecdotal evidence is another term for "information that is not based on facts or careful study." In some cases it might just mean “not enough” evidence, although it usually means “not good enough” evidence. Just because you experience something in the real world doesn’t mean that you understand what happened or that it indicates anything about the future. That is why anecdotal evidence is not sufficient. It is certainly possible to use real-world experience as scientific evidence if you do it properly.

After all, the main reason you no longer stick your hand in the fire isn't because you're mother told you not too . . . it's because it burned the sh!t out of you the first time you did it.

Actually, I’ve never stuck my hand in a fire. There is plenty of proof of what happens when you do that. I’m the kind of guy who believes the proof and doesn’t need to try something to see what happens. Let the progression players burn their hands all they want.

Sorry, that was a cheap shot but I couldn’t resist. :grin:

-Sonny-