how to start your counting career

[Canceler]

Just need to play through it...

Don't worry about my plan strategy for APing, i know what i'm supose to do, i just have been getting unlucky or if you prefer to call it bad variance, its all the same:whip:

The first major swing in my bankroll was down, too. As long as you're doing everything right, and can maintain your confidence, I'm sure you'll be fine. I'll say again, you do seem to have the right attitude!

 

[la_dee_daa]

Where do you hit a max bet? You probably should be hitting that 10x bet by a TC of no more than +5. As you've seen, getting counts above that are very very rare.

(This would also require a financial gut check on your part)

Play all with a <10x spread on a shoe game only results in an edge of like 0.5%. That's about the same as the disadvantage with strict BS. But it's such a small advantage that it would take a gillion billion hands before it comes evident. Might as well be a coin flip.

When I was starting out I also made the mistake of play-all on too weak of a game with too small of a spread. I was lucky enough to survive long enough to start backcounting more, and eventually afforcing better games with bigger spreads.

yea it has been at +5. I just haven't had the guts to bet more because i have been losing everything my intial plan which i will use some time was a 1-15 spread so its been a good thing i haven't used my full spread or i would have lost alot more.. i did have one day where everything was +5 and above didn't help much..

problem is i dont have any better games to play i have one game and thats it.. i do sometimes backcount or just plain wong out but im probably to close to a play all type thing.

funny thing is when i do play all when with friends i usually only end up losing maybe 1 unit when i don't get any positive counts during a shoe ( which i shouldn't be playing... then once those positive counts hit i start putting out more and losing every hand when i do..
for example today i won one hand at a count above +2 where +2 is a $25 bet and +3 is 2x $25.. and the only reason was because that hand was a blackjack. Every other time i played it usually happens to.

i just need to experience "winning" before i can start putting out my max bets i planned to have.

im probably going to take a break from counting since im quite busy with many things, tapped out my current cash supply and don't feel like pulling out the rest of my saved bankroll. Probably start again when my friend who i taught to count turns of age to gamble. try some combined bankroll with him and some minor team play with pure backcounting and so on. Right now doesn't seem to be my "time" maybe in a month or 2 eh?

i think i could go for that coin flip game right now... where do u find it in the casino?

 

[la_dee_daa]

Where do i stand in variation??

The first major swing in my bankroll was down, too. As long as you're doing everything right, and can maintain your confidence, I'm sure you'll be fine. I'll say again, you do seem to have the right attitude!

yea i probably do im just going to take a little break though. i have a good attitude but other people don't and are shocked at my losses.

if someone could tell me like what short run variation i have hit it would be nice under there conditions. 6 deck das, doa, h17, ls, split 4 hands, split aces only recieve one card. 80% pen, no hole card but dealer bj only get the original bet, average 3 other players at the table i guess maybe like 2.5 i play on 3rd base ( maybe i just need to start playing 1st base :1st . probably only played 400-500 hands-ish(6-8 hrs not all play) $10 min 1-10 spread but the few times i have done a max bet have been spread between 2 hands so equivelant to 1-8 single handed i guess.. I use hi-lo ( how typical ) illusriouse 18 fab 4 other indicies if i get the chance to. Down $1528

would be pretty cool to know where i fall on the standard diviation curve

 

[sagefr0g]

.........
i think i could go for that coin flip game right now... where do u find it in the casino?

you don't find it you make it. :cool2: if your lucky it might even be a biase coin flip in your favor. not saying i can do it, just a way of thinking about it.

 

[la_dee_daa]

you don't find it you make it. :cool2: if your lucky it might even be a biase coin flip in your favor. not saying i can do it, just a way of thinking about it.

man but if i start losing how can i pay my debts off to myself if i loss all my money to myself :cry:

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, I don't know about "standard deviations" and "math" and stuff, but I lost $1200, peak-to-trough, on a Sunday in Reno, before lunch, when my max bet was $50.

So your losses are not impossible. Heck, if you threw down a $80 max bet, it could end up splitting and redoubling to over $600 all by itself.

It's weird when you're starting out and playing at low stakes at a full table. As you noted, when you're just betting the minimum, your variance is going to be very small because, well, it's only $10 a hand. All the moves are going to be gentle, even if every hand is costing you a little bit of money.

It's the big hands (in your case, $50 or more) that really drive the variance. But the thing is, if you're play all, at a crowded table, in a shoe game, with a slow dealer and slow players... there just aren't that many big hands that you end up playing. You might be able to count the number of elevated bets you make on one hand after a session. So even then, while you can still get kicked in the teeth in a high count, you're only getting the "full experience" of variance in drips and drabs.

It's when you start getting lots of high counts, like in a single deck game, or unusually busy backcounting, where you can really experience some swings.

Because let's face it, counting cards is pretty silly.

 

[rukus]

yea i probably do im just going to take a little break though. i have a good attitude but other people don't and are shocked at my losses.

if someone could tell me like what short run variation i have hit it would be nice under there conditions. 6 deck das, doa, h17, ls, split 4 hands, split aces only recieve one card. 80% pen, no hole card but dealer bj only get the original bet, average 3 other players at the table i guess maybe like 2.5 i play on 3rd base ( maybe i just need to start playing 1st base :1st . probably only played 400-500 hands-ish(6-8 hrs not all play) $10 min 1-10 spread but the few times i have done a max bet have been spread between 2 hands so equivelant to 1-8 single handed i guess.. I use hi-lo ( how typical ) illusriouse 18 fab 4 other indicies if i get the chance to. Down $1528

would be pretty cool to know where i fall on the standard diviation curve

if we assume you have an hourly EV of 2 units and an hourly Std Dev of 35 units (assuming 100 hands per hour), then over the course of 5 hours (your 500 hands), your total EV would be 10 units and your total SD would be ~78.25 units. putting this into $10 units, thats $100 expected, with one std deviation being $782.50. So your loss of about $1500 is about than 2.1 std devs out. that is pretty rare. BUT i also made an assumption about your EV/Std Devs, since i dont have access to my sim software at the moment and dont know your exact bet ramp. in reality, if you are doing mostly play-all and not spreading the full 1-10, your EV might be lower than 2 units an hour, so you might end up coming inside the 2 std dev range.

also, using my assumptions above and the formulas in ch. 8 of Don S.'s blackjack attack, your probability of tapping out in a 5 hour session with a 150 unit BR is only about 4.3% and your LONG RUN ROR (for a BR of 150 units) is a tad over 61% fyi.

 

[rollem411]

yea i probably do im just going to take a little break though. i have a good attitude but other people don't and are shocked at my losses.

if someone could tell me like what short run variation i have hit it would be nice under there conditions. 6 deck das, doa, h17, ls, split 4 hands, split aces only recieve one card. 80% pen, no hole card but dealer bj only get the original bet, average 3 other players at the table i guess maybe like 2.5 i play on 3rd base ( maybe i just need to start playing 1st base :1st . probably only played 400-500 hands-ish(6-8 hrs not all play) $10 min 1-10 spread but the few times i have done a max bet have been spread between 2 hands so equivelant to 1-8 single handed i guess.. I use hi-lo ( how typical ) illusriouse 18 fab 4 other indicies if i get the chance to. Down $1528

would be pretty cool to know where i fall on the standard diviation curve

Well let me first start off my saying you are not alone. I've posted numerous times about being down around a couple grand at first starting out. It comes down to me saying to myself "I haven't practiced continuously learning BS, learning the count system, index plays and variations, estimations and all that to just give up when things get bad." I'm actually no longer going my casino on a weekend or busy time...I've decided to build another BR of a couple thousand and hit it at early mornings rather than the full tables and see where I stand. It seems most of my losses come from the full tables.

I've only had a few opportunities to play one on one, but I have had moderate success. My point here being, maybe you should also try to go at times when you can get heads up play and see if things change up.

 

[la_dee_daa]

Well let me first start off my saying you are not alone. I've posted numerous times about being down around a couple grand at first starting out. It comes down to me saying to myself "I haven't practiced continuously learning BS, learning the count system, index plays and variations, estimations and all that to just give up when things get bad." I'm actually no longer going my casino on a weekend or busy time...I've decided to build another BR of a couple thousand and hit it at early mornings rather than the full tables and see where I stand. It seems most of my losses come from the full tables.

I've only had a few opportunities to play one on one, but I have had moderate success. My point here being, maybe you should also try to go at times when you can get heads up play and see if things change up.

i do play at the most unbusy times anywhere from 10 in the morning to 3 in the afternoon and try to avoid tables with more then 2 or 3 other people.. but the dealers are pretty slow and sloppy.

its nice to know im not alone though ( you know you aren't but it's still nice to know for sure )

 

[la_dee_daa]

if we assume you have an hourly EV of 2 units and an hourly Std Dev of 35 units (assuming 100 hands per hour), then over the course of 5 hours (your 500 hands), your total EV would be 10 units and your total SD would be ~78.25 units. putting this into $10 units, thats $100 expected, with one std deviation being $782.50. So your loss of about $1500 is about than 2.25 std devs out. that is pretty rare. BUT i also made an assumption about your EV/Std Devs, since i dont have access to my sim software at the moment and dont know your exact bet ramp. in reality, if you are doing mostly play-all and not spreading the full 1-10, your EV might be lower than 2 units an hour, so you might end up coming inside the 2 std dev range.

also, using my assumptions above and the formulas in ch. 8 of Don S.'s blackjack attack, your probability of tapping out in a 5 hour session with a 150 unit BR is only about 4.3% and your LONG RUN ROR (for a BR of 150 units) is a tad over 61% fyi.

sweet so im about hitting the 1%-4% on the normal type curve thing ( thats what my sim was getting so i was useing it right!!! ). I got 55% in my long run sim ( 10 000 000 000 hands ) based on my exact betting i used so close enough.

thanks for the general idea, i just didn't know what my exact sd was and wasn't sure if i was using my sim properly that i just downloaded..

:cow:

 

[rukus]

play with your sim a little more - if its quoting you RoR type numbers it should definitely be able to to quote you EV and std dev per hand.

 

[la_dee_daa]

play with your sim a little more - if its quoting you RoR type numbers it should definitely be able to to quote you EV and std dev per hand.

yea it does give me ev but i dont get the std devs part on it. its power sim.. does anyone have a little insight into it?

 

[Kasi]

yea it does give me ev but i dont get the std devs part on it. its power sim.. does anyone have a little insight into it?

I've fooled around with it once for an hour so maybe I can help you a little.

But you've played so many different games in so many different ways, sounds like anyway, wonging, play all, different spreads, half-spreads, 2 hands, not making max bets maybe, whatever, it just doesn't seem like one sim could cover all that variety. Even if it does, are you saying your plan was to play with a 55% ruin risk?

You'd maybe almost need a separate sim for all those scenarios.

At least consider the possibility your results may be more likely due to just betting in various different ways, while using counting as a general guide perhaps, and perhaps less likely the result of what any card-counting plan might predict.

How's this for a scary thought - sounds like about what I do lol.

But if you actually played for an hour just the way to the best of your abilty a sim suggested it or whatever (how often would you say you've actually done that?), count that hour toward that plan. Write the results down, spread, guess how many hands or hours etc. If you start doing other stuff, tired, friends, got cold feet, don't count those results toward a plan.

 

[la_dee_daa]

I've fooled around with it once for an hour so maybe I can help you a little.

But you've played so many different games in so many different ways, sounds like anyway, wonging, play all, different spreads, half-spreads, 2 hands, not making max bets maybe, whatever, it just doesn't seem like one sim could cover all that variety. Even if it does, are you saying your plan was to play with a 55% ruin risk?

You'd maybe almost need a separate sim for all those scenarios.

At least consider the possibility your results may be more likely due to just betting in various different ways, while using counting as a general guide perhaps, and perhaps less likely the result of what any card-counting plan might predict.

How's this for a scary thought - sounds like about what I do lol.

But if you actually played for an hour just the way to the best of your abilty a sim suggested it or whatever (how often would you say you've actually done that?), count that hour toward that plan. Write the results down, spread, guess how many hands or hours etc. If you start doing other stuff, tired, friends, got cold feet, don't count those results toward a plan.

well im saying if my br was $1500 and i averaged out how i played i would be playing with a 55% ror but this isn't the case since im not ready to flip a coin on it. i actually plan to play with a 1%-7% ror depending on what exactly i set my br as you may already have noticed that i keep changing my exact number.

I do play slightly different each time because each time i go there are different conditions and im experimenting. i sometimes put a cap on my max bet at +4 for shorter sessions just because i didn't bring that much cash on me ( like >$900 ) or spent some of it on something else that i needed during the day and what not so i go in with a little less. I zoned out one time with a 12 vs the dealers 10 signialing a stay a hit then a stay it and so on, the dealer just stood there stunned going "uhhhh" for half a minute then gave me a 10 . This has been my one and only almost error for plays...

call this vodoo but sometime i just can't bring myself to put the proper max bet out at +5 just because everything seems to be going the wrong way every time i play ( luck wise ), its not like counting wrong or play mistakes. So far for the short run not putting out my full max bet has been a good thing because i have only won one hand at a count above +5.

The last time i went i did play the proper bet spread to achieve near optimum results but it went the worst it could. thats besides the point just putting it out there that it has been done.

I have been tired for the last 4 months because i have many things to do getting up at 5:30 every day and keeping quite busy. I have health type prodcuts that subside this effect... sort of.. sleep still might help. So i guess i don't count any of the time i go

It's easier going with friends because i get a ride to the casino . and i usually only play a shoe or 2 with them and they go off to play other games because i took the dealers bust card to many times, double down my 18 vs dealers 5 at a high count which is apperently bad. So basically i mess with the flow of the cards lol. i also stick out like a sore thumb at the casino because everyone else is asain and im not and young to to top it off, so it can help going with a friend who is known there for losing a lot.. working on the future cover

my feet don't get cold but my hands do.. i think they have their air con on to high :joker:

i do keep notes on the side as how my spread was what conditions how long i played about how long i backcounted stuff like that.

regardless if i don't stick to my exact plan and don't overbet everytime this still doesn't excuse the fact that i have been losing more then i should even if my ev say was at 0 ( which it is not ). The results i have been getting are nothing close to the ones i got in practice which did have ups and downs of course where i was played through 100s of shoes if not 1000's. My results are just not cool to say the least.

my future plans are to do more back counting to try to offset those negative ev counts start playing a combined bankroll with a few good friends and play EMFH backcount exclusive. Over the next couple months im going to brush up on my counting practice, try to learn more and more indices get it to like 70 or 80, im in the 30s or 40s right now but rarely get to apply them since the only hands i get are 14s, 15s 16s, :joker:

right now i have lost my time slots to play so there will be some practice and get away from this "kasi" method which apperently isn't considered "card counting" that for some reason i have picked up :joker:


:cow:

 

[Kasi]

right now i have lost my time slots to play so there will be some practice and get away from this "kasi" method which apperently isn't considered "card counting" that for some reason i have picked up :joker: :cow:

And we know nobody wants that

Just ask yourself while playing, am I going to be able to relate any results to something? If you choose to play to a 55% ROR, no problem with me. At least you can relate results to that plan later. If you want to play to a lower ROR, why aren't you?

"Experiment" with different bets? Fine. Get a plan with that bet. Probably better to know the plan before you play than afterward lol.

I doubt if it's your card-counting skills. I don't care about making a mistake. I've done them all. Have you ever doubled a 20?

I doubt the game is crooked. I doubt if your results are that unexpected.

Sometimes people bet with such small rolls that the reality is if you use that "system", play it perfectly, you can be wiped out in just a 1 stan dev event. It feels unlucky but it's not. If you are aware of this before you play and still play with that plan, I confer upon thee the honored title "card-counter" lol.

More practically, are you calling that $1500 the lifetime roll you are betting against in 6 deck games? A trip roll? It may very well be that, from a card-counting point of view, back-counting is your only sane option.

Your Mission Impossible assignment is, should you choose to accept it, perhaps best before you play again, is present us with a plan you will play next time and think you are happy with. Just one. Back-counting or not. Play-all or not. Playing at the start and exiting at a point you choose. Game. Rules. Pen. Bankroll. Counting system. EV. How often you can play. Full tables. Heads-up. Indexes. Etc. No hurry lol. This tape will now self-destruct.

That's what I did. Why the heck do you think I chose to not even bother lol.

And, if you want, PM me or whatever with whatever spread you were using in Powersim and I'll work on that. Maybe trying to understand just that one spread, just as an example, and what to expect, etc. might help you down the road a little. Might help me too!

And rest up!

 

[la_dee_daa]

$1500 was just my immediate cash role the rest of it takes a little time to get to the real world with transfering and all, rather then keep it in cash it gains a few pennys here and there to bost me EV. so there is just a 55% chance that i would have to go got more funds out which i was hopeing i would not have to do so quickly but oh well. my actuall role is 8k 10k maybe more if a few things bring in some good money.

il start figureing out something some time soon for set play style for me.

:cow:

 

[Kasi]

$1500 was just my immediate cash role :

If you used Scocalc in Powersim and $1500 as your bankroll to get that 55%, that would be wrong. You should use the 8K or 10K, whatever you decide, or run one for 8 and one for 10 and see what changes, why not, that's pretty much the point, as your bankroll and play to that spread with whatever "trip" money you take. We can get into that later lol.

In the meantime if you get anything like

Bankroll? (default = $10,000)
1: $.36021/$31.0615 = 1.159667% var = 3580.54 SCORE = 36.238 ROR = .133715

we have everything we need to know.

First you run Powersim with rules, pen etc. And then run ScoCalc with a spread and bankroll. You can then open up your sim file with a text-editor Word Notepad whatever.