Hypothetical situation for double down on 12... Hear me out

[Count]

It struck me today that there could be certain situations where it be an advantage to double down on a 12. I want you guys to throw your 2 cents in or show me some MP tables to prove or disprove this idea of mine.

Let's say you are using a system like Hi-Opt II where you are keeping side counts of Aces 8s and 9s. You have 18 cards left and, using this system, you know there are 3 8s left and 3 9s left which would be 1/3 of the remaining deck. You have a 10,2 making a hard 12 and the dealer is showing a 6 or 7 and the true count is -3. I believe that since you know the deck is rich in 2-7 cards with 1/3 of them being 8 and 9s, the MP tables do ( or should) say to double down. As a counter you know the deck is poor in 10 cards which would bust you and the odds that the dealer has a hard 14-16, because the deck is so rich in 8s and 9s, would mathmatically validate a double down. A 1 in 3 chance of getting an 8 or 9 resulting in a hard 20 or 21 is pretty great and since the dealer is hitting up to 17, a hard 14-16 would almost have to result in a bust since 1/3 of the deck would bust him.

I'm just thinking out loud here, any input or charts would be great. Thanks in advance everyone.

 

[moo321]

Sure. Sounds plausible. Also sounds like a situation that would come up approximately once a year or so.

 

[shadroch]

Theres a time when doubling down on a twenty is correct as well. It's just unlikely to happen in ones lifetime.

 

[jack.jackson]

Although different combinations could be used, here's the effects of removal for these cards according to k_c's cdca program, for 12 vs 6, In a 2D game.

Removal of:

Four, 3s
Four,4s
Six, 5s
Twelve,Xs

EV

Double+.0181
Hit+.0090
Stand -10.62

 

[Unshake]

If you tell me where you get penetration down to 18 cards (also, before you play your hand), Ill test your theory free of charge :grin:

 

[Count]

I don't believe it will only happen once in a life time or once a year. This isnt the only situation that I'm talking about. It could be 26 cards left with a count of -6 with 2 8s and 3 9s against a dealer showin a 5. There are many different possibilites that could prove an advantage to a counter that we wouldn't think of just because we have a 12. What I'm wanting to see is some Multi Parameter charts using Hi-OPT II. That would prove useful and I could actually get some math done on this but I cannot find those charts any where. I know they are out there somewhere.

Oh and about the penetration down to 18 card thing:
If you can find a SD game ( they still do exist) most dealers deal out 38-45 cards. 18 cards is a possibility, you just need to find a table you can have to yourself which is the best playing environment for a counter anyway.

 

[21forme]

I've done a double down for less ($5 on a $25 bet) on 12 v 2 a couple of times when the pit was nearby to help qualify me as an idiot. I figured I was only going to take one card, so what's the big deal. The hardest part was not laughing out loud when I did it.

 

[Count]

I've done a double down for less ($5 on a $25 bet) on 12 v 2 a couple of times when the pit was nearby to help qualify me as an idiot. I figured I was only going to take one card, so what's the big deal. The hardest part was not laughing out loud when I did it.

You just brought up an interesting point. If the math and MP tables do validate these plays on 12s, it could help put on a better "idiot tourist" cover that is sometimes needed to avoid heat. I'm positive that the dealers and pit bosses would laugh at us and think we are idiots which would also help us.

 

[ihate17]

I found it on a 19 once

Theres a time when doubling down on a twenty is correct as well. It's just unlikely to happen in ones lifetime.

I am playing in a casino that uses ASM's and sometimes the shuffle tihing will turn a card upside down. So the dealer has 10 and I have 19 and I glance at the shoe and there is a 2 peeking through. I double, the pit comes over half shaking his head and half laughing. I tell him that I was not the guy who put that shuffle gizmo in the casino and he laughs and tells the dealer to pay me, "this time".

So the times can come and you just have to have the right cards and not fall asleep when it comes.

ihate17