I Just Experienced High Level Heat

aslan

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
Unless he's been verified as an extremely bad counter (with no advantage), that's just retarded on their part. Every hand they allow him to play is theoretically costing him money. Following that strategy is the casino intentionally saying that they value "sticking it" to this guy more than they value making money.
I don't quite follow you. Yes, he is either a terrible counter, or he is terribly unlucky, but either way, the casino is making good money. Why is it a choice between sticking it to him or making money? As long as he is losing, the casino is winning. If he begins winning, tut! tut! Mr. Counter, you are beginning to play far too well for us. Please limit your betting to a flat amount. You may bet as much as you want, but you may not vary your bets, please! I have no idea how much they might let him win back, ir anything.

Don't forget, at many Vegas casinos counters are considered no better than cheaters, so sticking it to you, if you are a counter, is tantamount to bringing you to justice. Letting you lose whicle things are not going your way is poetic justice.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
Let's give the casino a whole lot of credit. Let's assume they have a crack surveillance staff (or a VP of table games hawking the game), who can verify that yes, indeed, the player is counting. And yes, indeed, they are performing to a technically proficient enough level to where the player should have statistically significant advantage...

... But currently the playing is getting his ass handed to him.

Why would the casino mess around with letting the guy dig himself a whole? It's like trying to call the bottom on the stock market, you won't know you've hit until you've already passed it. The very next hand the guy plays (or more precisely, the next hand in a positive count), could be the start of him regaining his advantage. And sure, that hand may only be a couple thousand dollars, but why would the casino even mess with it? Why not take action right now.

If the casino is just waiting until he stops being "unlucky", then they're thinking like ploppies. If they're still kind of not sure if the guy actually has an advantage, then maybe they aren't that sure about their evaluation of his skill level.

Or, there's the final possibility, and that they're willing to risk a few grand of the their house's money in order to be douches, just because it would be fun.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
Let's give the casino a whole lot of credit. Let's assume they have a crack surveillance staff (or a VP of table games hawking the game), who can verify that yes, indeed, the player is counting. And yes, indeed, they are performing to a technically proficient enough level to where the player should have statistically significant advantage...
Why not take action right now.

If the casino is just waiting until he stops being "unlucky", then they're thinking like ploppies.
Or maybe he's a technically great counter who thinks that that's all there is to it and really isn't unlucky at all because the guy is betting like a fool and doomed to failure even if he plays every hand with an advantage.

And the casino knows it.

But, you know, maybe the guy is spreading 100,000 to 1,600,000 with a $40million dollar bankroll and his losses actually are reasonable.

What game, spread, bankroll, number of hands playing it, etc were you thinking of that might make a $2MM loss explainable as merely expected bad luck?

Is there any point where one stops calling one's losses merely expected bad luck and re-evaluates what one may possibly be doing wrong?
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
I have 14,800 worth of MGM chips. How should I cash them in? Since you have made so much, a little advice would be nice.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
Let's give the casino a whole lot of credit. Let's assume they have a crack surveillance staff (or a VP of table games hawking the game), who can verify that yes, indeed, the player is counting. And yes, indeed, they are performing to a technically proficient enough level to where the player should have statistically significant advantage...

... But currently the playing is getting his ass handed to him.

Why would the casino mess around with letting the guy dig himself a whole? It's like trying to call the bottom on the stock market, you won't know you've hit until you've already passed it. The very next hand the guy plays (or more precisely, the next hand in a positive count), could be the start of him regaining his advantage. And sure, that hand may only be a couple thousand dollars, but why would the casino even mess with it? Why not take action right now.

If the casino is just waiting until he stops being "unlucky", then they're thinking like ploppies. If they're still kind of not sure if the guy actually has an advantage, then maybe they aren't that sure about their evaluation of his skill level.

Or, there's the final possibility, and that they're willing to risk a few grand of the their house's money in order to be douches, just because it would be fun.

My guess is that over time they discovered that this regular customer was counting, but was already well on the loser side. Since I don't know for sure, I'll guess he's a lousy counter and although he's trying to take the casino off, they can see his ineptitude, and are quite content to allow him to continue losing serious bread, while always keeping an eye on him, lest he improve and turn the tables. I would assume that casinos welcome would-be, but inept, counters. The name of the game is revenues.

It reminds me of two acquaintances who played poker in a certain poker game. They discovered that one of the players, a motel owner, was using marked cards against them. I don't know the how of it, but the two men found a way to beat the motel owner, possibly using his own marked cards to better advantage, or possibly seeing his cheating as a license for them to return in kind with something stronger, but whatever the method, one of the two men winded up as half owner of the motel plus the two of them won a lot of loot besides.

The point is, when you discover someone is trying to rip you off, your reaction may not be to quit the game or call the person out. It may just fire up your enthusiasm for beating your opponent. In the case of the counter, you may reason that you can continue to beat him, but he cannot beat you, since you can pull the plug at any time. If I was manager, I might instruct my team to permit him to play, but if he wins over "X" amount, immediately back him off, revealing that you have documented evidence of his superior play (i.e., counting). Of course, you may invite him to continue flatbetting whatever he wants, which will give him a chance to get his money back sans counting.

Cards are war, in disguise of a sport. ~Charles Lamb

PS--I am not privy to the thinking of this well known casino, but for whatever reason this counter is still be allowed to play. If you can come up with a better reason than I did, go for it. But I wouldn't be quick to stereotype casino management/personnel.
 
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InPlay

Banned
mdlbj said:
I have 14,800 worth of MGM chips. How should I cash them in? Since you have made so much, a little advice would be nice.

Walk up to the cage and exchange them. Or I can arrange to buy them from you for $10,000.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
I'll guess he's a lousy counter and although he's trying to take the casino off, they can see his ineptitude,
Well I'm using a narrow definition of a counter in that I assume he always knows exactly what the count is.

Maybe you are using a broader definition of counter that includes how much to bet and when etc.

Betting properly to a mistaken count is probably alot less costly than betting improperly to a correct count.

You don't lose $2MM if you can count and bet properly. Under most scenarios I can think of anyway.
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
InPlay said:
Walk up to the cage and exchange them. Or I can arrange to buy them from you for $10,000.
Well thats a nice offer but I would not infer over 4k in tax. Certainly this is not the answer I was looking for,
Ass.

Yeah I busting on lamers now. really sick of peeps with short money. If your going to do it, " do it " <--- That means play with a purpose.

Just laughing now Bo an are jay tee.

Maybe I should go to the fight club forum.
 
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Kasi

Well-Known Member
mdlbj said:
I have 14,800 worth of MGM chips. How should I cash them in? Since you have made so much, a little advice would be nice.
I know you're not talking to me lol and, for sure, I've never had that problem, but I'd turn high denomination chips into low denomination chips and cash out small amounts (less than $3K) as inconspicuously and as infrequently as possible (different shifts, different tellers etc).
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Well I'm using a narrow definition of a counter in that I assume he always knows exactly what the count is.

Maybe you are using a broader definition of counter that includes how much to bet and when etc.

Betting properly to a mistaken count is probably alot less costly than betting improperly to a correct count.

You don't lose $2MM if you can count and bet properly. Under most scenarios I can think of anyway.
No doubt. I'm using counter in the sense that 99 out of a 100 don't make it. Actually I'm using counter in the sense that the casino employee told me this guy was a counter. Either he's lousy or terribly unlucky to be over $2 million loser to the casino. Go figure!
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
And you know Kasi, it's a good point, the guy could be dramatically overbetting his bankroll.

But the casino doesn't know what the bankroll is of any given player, so I wouldn't think they should really look forward to taking that risk. And in a way, they don't care, because there could be a whole herd of well-banked APs following behind this guy.

(Admittedly, if this guy is using markers up the wazoo, the casino may very well know what his bank balances are)
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Or maybe he's a technically great counter who thinks that that's all there is to it and really isn't unlucky at all because the guy is betting like a fool and doomed to failure even if he plays every hand with an advantage.

And the casino knows it.

But, you know, maybe the guy is spreading 100,000 to 1,600,000 with a $40million dollar bankroll and his losses actually are reasonable.

What game, spread, bankroll, number of hands playing it, etc were you thinking of that might make a $2MM loss explainable as merely expected bad luck?

Is there any point where one stops calling one's losses merely expected bad luck and re-evaluates what one may possibly be doing wrong?
I wish I knew the details on this guy. All I know, I've told. But in the big strip casinos, there are guys who bet $10K a hand. One guy I was told about bet my mortgage on one hand. It's hard for me to comprehend, but there are a lot of rich gamblers in the world. One sheik when he comes to Vegas reserves two tables. One for him to play at, and the other for two of his wives. lol Now that's high rollin'.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
And you know Kasi, it's a good point, the guy could be dramatically overbetting his bankroll.

But the casino doesn't know what the bankroll is of any given player, so I wouldn't think they should really look forward to taking that risk.
Well I don't know what credit checks may or may not reveal but, if the casino knows what they are doing and thinks he is counting, and obviously knows what game he is playing and how he is playing it, whether or not he bets the same amount at the same count, etc, they may be able to derive conclusions of whether his liquid (or not ) net worth justifies such and such advantage at such and such a count.

So maybe they see his bet goes up in positive counts but still realize he's an idiot.

Maybe they at least know he might have $10MM but not $40MM.

So I go back to what game and bankroll he could possibly be playing that would indicate losing $2MM is reasonable and expected.

Of course we don't know - it just seems to me overbetting is the most likely scenario whether he counts or not.

Who knows - maybe he does everything perfect in BJ and goes wild on roulette or vid poker as has been to known to happen by some posters here :grin:
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
I know you're not talking to me lol and, for sure, I've never had that problem, but I'd turn high denomination chips into low denomination chips and cash out small amounts (less than $3K) as inconspicuously and as infrequently as possible (different shifts, different tellers etc).
Problem is we never play low stakes tables which is an easy out.

I really like the new poker room at the Paris. The Tournys at Ceasers are not bad either. Money laundering...No: Ap is in a whole-nother world. Cash in with less than 9k. Bring 12 max bets. Its a simple truth. It works.

Konichiwa from Mirage.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Well I don't know what credit checks may or may not reveal but, if the casino knows what they are doing and thinks he is counting, and obviously knows what game he is playing and how he is playing it, whether or not he bets the same amount at the same count, etc, they may be able to derive conclusions of whether his liquid (or not ) net worth justifies such and such advantage at such and such a count.

So maybe they see his bet goes up in positive counts but still realize he's an idiot.

Maybe they at least know he might have $10MM but not $40MM.

So I go back to what game and bankroll he could possibly be playing that would indicate losing $2MM is reasonable and expected.

Of course we don't know - it just seems to me overbetting is the most likely scenario whether he counts or not.

Who knows - maybe he does everything perfect in BJ and goes wild on roulette or vid poker as has been to known to happen by some posters here :grin:
Anyway, I'm just editing, or trying to lol, to add that my main point is it somewhat surprises me just how easily, once someone is identified, or describes himself as, a "counter" or "AP player", losses of almost any magnitude in almost any game over almost any period of time, most of the time not knowing someone's bankroll or how they are playing what or for how long, as is the case here, are seemingly always dismissed unquestioningly as a little "bad luck".
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
mdlbj said:
Money laundering...No: Ap is in a whole-nother world. Cash in with less than 9k. Bring 12 max bets. Its a simple truth. It works.
Well then, if you're not worried about anything, what's the problem?

Anyway, wish I had that problem lol.
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Well then, if you're not worried about anything, what's the problem?

Anyway, wish I had that problem lol.
Not worried at all. Just bored with all the ****in number crunchers here. All brains, no talent. Its all about the coin, not the 7th grade reading level. All the books out there will not make you a dime. you play hard and practice hard. all this BS will pay off as long as you play perfectly and have some bank. otherwise, forget about it.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
mdlbj said:
Not worried at all. Just bored with all the ****in number crunchers here. All brains, no talent. Its all about the coin, not the 7th grade reading level. All the books out there will not make you a dime. you play hard and practice hard. all this BS will pay off as long as you play perfectly and have some bank. otherwise, forget about it.
Sorry I missed the sarcasm of your original question about cashing in a lot of chips although I did wonder lol.

I just happened to enjoy the mathematical aspects of the game while, like you say, having no special talent in that area.

Would my thoughts somehow become more valid if I admitted to winning alot of money?

Anyway, you bring up an interesting question of just how much "talent" is involved in playing perfectly, like a robot if you will, the system you have?
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
To much alcohol consumption would be the reason my posts seem neg. I should not disregard the info posted about the details of the game. Sorry If I have offended anyone. After reading them, I sound like a fool.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
QUOTE=mdlbj;63232]To much alcohol consumption ...
[/QUOTE]

That's something I can relate to lol.

No problems here :)
 
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