if i dont vary my bet, but use playing indices, then shud i use a system w/ high PE?

[Kasi]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyepaintball12
Isn't a flat-betting counter an oxymoron?

too me thats close to how SilentBob wants to play it... uhm sort of

but i'm wondering have those been nine years you've been playing it that way and ringing in a profit? pretty good if so. well i guess i missed that you've been betting up a couple three units or so since the post was confessions of a flat betting counter.

well anyway i think SilentBob could play it that way if he could just only get himself into a position where his bankroll was replenishible.

Hi Froggy - and thanks for bringing that up.

That post pretty much is how I play these days and why I said "rarely" since I don't play that much anymore.

So I recognize I am playing a negative expectation game. Hopefully with an EV less than the cost of going to a movie. I also use various progressions (perhaps the wrong term) to extend play having a bankroll that allows me to do what I want. Even this way, although I don't have exact records, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead - more due to varying bets in a "betting system" way rather than a spreading-card-counter way than making index plays.

You'll just have to trust me that the rest of it was +EV.

And I agree with you, SilentBob can definitely play that way, in fact, like he says, it's a good idea. Why not at least reduce the HA a little by making a few index plays. I do it, although what I like most about doing it isn't that it reduces the HA by some immeasurable amount but that it usually pisses alot of people off

And I think his 100 unit bankroll could last quite a while playing that way.

I'm just not sure whether he thinks he's playing a +EV game or not.

And I always hate young guys playing with money they really don't want to lose. All it takes is one emotional outburst one night and, poof, money's gone.

Even I can't stand flat-betting every hand for days on end I'm guessing, if pressed, even SilentBob might confess to an occasional bet larger than $10. If not, I commend his discipline!

I also believe that a card-counter can flat-bet a bankroll at the same ROR as a spreading better sacrificing only a percentage of win rate.

 

[sagefr0g]

....
That post pretty much is how I play these days and why I said "rarely" since I don't play that much anymore.
.......
You'll just have to trust me that the rest of it was +EV.
.

lol, like i said an enigma. off course you don't have to respond but i'm very curious as to whether the nine years play was as a orthodox card counter or advantage player. ie. the part where you say "..just have to trust me that the rest of it was +EV."

And I always hate young guys playing with money they really don't want to lose. All it takes is one emotional outburst one night and, poof, money's gone.
.

exactly! i've seen so many players that appear to be grossly over betting and like you say you just hate to see that. often it's college age guys. and yeah i really believe the greatest loss's are suffered as a result of an emotional outburst ie. steaming.

So I recognize I am playing a negative expectation game. Hopefully with an EV less than the cost of going to a movie. I also use various progressions (perhaps the wrong term) to extend play having a bankroll that allows me to do what I want. Even this way, although I don't have exact records, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead - more due to varying bets in a "betting system" way rather than a spreading-card-counter way than making index plays.
.

this is the other thing i'm curious about. these various 'progressions' or varying bets in a "betting system" as you say.
reason i ask this is that the most difficult thing for me when i'm employing my fuzzy count is determining how much to bet up and exactly when. it's like often i sense that a small progression (or at least continuing on with my raised bet) at times when i know darned well the true count is high (just not exactly how high) would stand a chance of working out well. any thoughts on this?

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Isn't a flat-betting counter an oxymoron?

not at all, if you only play when the count is POSITIVE you are at worst reducing the house edge

As I said before, I would rather spread $5-$20 with a 5% ROR. If there were no $5 tables then I would spread $10-$25 and Wong in at a higher count to keep a 5% ROR. If you want to last in this game, you have to play smart.

i still dont understand your mentality that if your ev is negative, then nothing matters, just bet it all on one hand

What difference does it make? If your goal is to lose your entire bankroll then bet it all on one hand. Your odds of success will be much better than waiting for the house to grind you down. I would at least want to give myself the chance of winning, even if I went broke trying. I just wouldn’t feel good about giving away my bankroll without a fight.

what difference does it make? uhhh, appearantly you dont have fun gambling, otherwise you would know.. that is exactly like saying "why pay $50 for 10 games of bowling? why not just pay $50 for 1 game?"..

And by the way, you're going to lose it all due to variance anyway. As I said before, the variance will be about the same for either strategy. You'll be experiencing the same streaks either way so you might as well play with an advantage.

lets say the next 100 hours i play will be a huge downswing.. if i spread $10-$30, i will lose it all faster than if i just do $10.. see i think you look at bj as a job, and you dont care how long you play, just as long as you make money.. not everybody looks at it that way, and just because you dont look at it that way doesnt make you a bs player.. you wouldnt be happy making $1/hr, but i would, because i went from losing $3/hr to winning $1/hr which is good, and you say variance will play a bigger part, ok so then why the hell would i put more money on the table if variance wud kill me?

But spreading your bets will give you a higher EV and lower ROR if you do it properly. We’ve been through this already.

And if you agree that you shouldn't be play BJ at all, why is this thread still going on?

i am playing for entertainment.. if you are playing bj as your job (making at least $10/hr), and you dont have at least a $10,000 bankroll, your a moron

Are you sure you have a +EV?

uh, ya, im playing at positive counts, because the only positive count i dont have +ev on is when im between 0 and 1, and 2+ occurs more than 0-1 (i said BETWEEN 0-1, not "under 1")

I played with a $2k bankroll, a $5-$40 spread and a 2% ROR for almost a year. It certainly wasn’t glamorous, but I was making 2-3 units per hour. It can be done.

$5-$40 spread with a 2% RoR? if u can prove this to me im down.. im finding it hard to believe that raising your bets in positive counts will bring down the RoR thus overcoming variance kind of.. the way i see it, putting more money down may increase your chances, but it will increase your volatility.. basically, if i lose $500 after like 10 trips, i would be ok because i wouldnt question myself, but if i lost $500 after 6 trips when im spreading, i would be questioning myself like crazy, and i would be pissed off..

Are you sure about that? You expect to get a blackjack every 21 hands. In JoB you expect a royal flush about every 3,500 hands. Until you get that royal you’re playing at a –EV. Even if the variance is lower, the game is more likely to grind you down.

3500? haha, try 40,000.. you dont even get a straight flush every 3500 (i think its 9000).. trust me on this, i know A LOT about jacks or better, and vp in general.. its quite simple, if most of the payback is in the jackpots, the variance will be sky high, the opposite is also true.. whats the payback % if you never get a royal on 9/6 jacks? 97.6% royal flush is only 1.9% of the payback, but with more volatile games, the payback w/ out the 4 deuces, royal flush, etc can be as low as like 85%, thus more volatile..

Because we are Advantage Players. You asked us for advice and you’re getting it. If you don’t like the advice we’re giving you then don’t post in the Card Counting forum. If you’re just looking for a slow way to lose your bankroll then post in the General or Voodoo forum. If you come to the Card Counter forum and ask a question, you’re going to get AP answers.

it seems everybody seems to show off with the term AP and be like "your not an AP, we are APs! you dont do this and we do this! we are the best!".. im counting cards, why wouldnt i post here, and why wouldnt i consider myself an AP? show me where it says an AP must spread, and must play bj for a living, and must not look at it as fun, but rather work/money

Look, it’s your money to gamble with so you have to make your own decisions. We’ve given you all the advice we can. If you decide to play with an advantage then we’ve told you everything you need to know. If you want to cut the house edge in half then we’ve told you everything you need to know. If you want to just play for fun and comps then we’ve told you everything you need to know. Now it’s time to sit down, think about it and make a plan.

i AM playing at an advantage, but i also feel i will be able to play longer with my $1000 bankroll.. see, heres the thing any card counter will tell you, that it doesnt matter what you do, a $1000 bankroll will most likely be your downfall, thus why would i want to lose it faster? i could use a crazy system with spreading and all that, but chances are i will lose that $1000 FASTER than if i flat bet the min with wonging and indexes, now if i am wrong on that, prove it to me.. i would like a program that proves to me that i will have a decent shot by spreading, and that i wont lose it all in a blink due to variance

You guys are talking Chinese her, and I don't mean Wong. To me PE is physical education, and PV is photovoltic, ie, solar panels. This is what I was feeling reading the archives. It read to me like there's a lot of chatter upstairs. If you have the count of the cards, and the money to cover your next bet, what does all this other stuff have to do with the game?

I'm really not here looking for new advice, I just joined to tell my story add my experience, and to aknowledge the host for his hosting and effort providing a reasonable ground to hold a debate and exchange information.

Hi,
it means a lot to the game.. all this jargon as you may call it is analyzing, and you will want to analyze the game as much as possible so you arent sitting there with empty pockets asking "what happened?"
If you are wonging in I assume you are counting and wonging in on only the positive counts? With this assumption it seems obvioius to me that BC is the most important for you as it determines the hands you will play. Defending the hands you play comes later . The most important thing is to get the money down at the best time. Agreed Hi-Lo has a dismal PE, but unless you want to go to a much harder system like the Zen you would be better off sticking to the Hi-Lo which is a great count for wonging in and out.

yes, i found this out from another person, that BC is directly related to wonging, and yes, i am planning on sticking to hi-lo, and also, because if i use another system, i will always be asking "+3 tc? what is that for blah blah system?"

Guess it depends how u define "gamble".

So, yes, I rarely gamble if you define it as playing with negative expectation.

On the other hand, I haven't worked at a real job in 9 years playing BJ almost exclusively, preferring to be the casino with the HA and they the ploppy guaranteed to lose.

As to the rest, on how to perhaps to play your bankroll at a +EV, I think I clearly see now how it was just a suggestion from a complete moron who has no idea where my advantage comes from or how many hands will occur at TC +3 and how much of your bankroll to bet at that count. Bloody miracle I lasted more than an hour.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink lol.

im confused about what or who you are talking about

And I agree with you, SilentBob can definitely play that way, in fact, like he says, it's a good idea. Why not at least reduce the HA a little by making a few index plays. I do it, although what I like most about doing it isn't that it reduces the HA by some immeasurable amount but that it usually pisses alot of people off And I think his 100 unit bankroll could last quite a while playing that way. I'm just not sure whether he thinks he's playing a +EV game or not. And I always hate young guys playing with money they really don't want to lose. All it takes is one emotional outburst one night and, poof, money's gone. Even I can't stand flat-betting every hand for days on end I'm guessing, if pressed, even SilentBob might confess to an occasional bet larger than $10. If not, I commend his discipline!

i am playing +ev, this other guy explained to me in detail in another post, and it made a lot of sense, and if anybody wants to calculate it, its very easy, its just like calculating the edge on scratch lottery tickets.. you take the advantage of each count and multiply (i think) by how often it occurs, then add it to the next count, so lets say the count of zero occurs 50% of the time for examples sake, it would look like this.. (.0043*.5)+(advantage of +1*occurance of +1)+etc.. im almost positive that the count of +2 or more occurs more than the count of 1/6 to 1

I also believe that a card-counter can flat-bet a bankroll at the same ROR as a spreading better sacrificing only a percentage of win rate.

the thing about spreading is that if i hit good flux from the start, then the RoR would go way down, but if i hit it bad from the start im screwed, and i think that flat betting is more of a guarantee, because if i hit bad flux with flat betting, at least my run will last a long time, and if i hit good flux, then i will make some money, and if i hit it dead in the middle, i will still make money, all while ruling out the chance of losing all my money in 20 hours

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

you see??!! this is why i dont do multi quotes in 1 post!! i have no idea how to do what sonny did in post #15.. everything was fine when i did it my way of 1 quote per post.. ive been working on the messed up post above for 20 minutes, when it would have taken me less time (and so much easier) if i did it the way i want to do it, but so many people complain like babies because they have to use their scroll wheel and they have OCD and it bothers them to see silentbob silentbob silentbob silentbob.. thats annoying right? well so is spending 20 minutes on a post!!

 

[Sonny]

Alright, I’ll try this one more time. But after this your on your own.

i still dont understand your mentality that if your ev is negative, then nothing matters, just bet it all on one hand

Because you were talking about not wanting to lose your bankroll even though your expectation was negative. In that case, betting it all on one hand gives you the best chances of doubling your bankroll and being able to quit a winner. If you flat bet the minimum you will have a much greater chance of losing it all, which is what you wanted to avoid.

You’ve been oscillating between wanting to have an advantage and wanting to lower the house edge for a while now. It’s been hard to keep up with your intentions, and I think my response above was from a period where you still wanted to play at a disadvantage but not lose all your money. That’s an almost impossible situation, but the advice I gave was about the best you can hope to do in that case.

what difference does it make? uhhh, appearantly you dont have fun gambling, otherwise you would know.. that is exactly like saying "why pay $50 for 10 games of bowling? why not just pay $50 for 1 game?"..

It’s more like asking “Why should I pay $50 for 10 games of bowling when I can get paid to bowl instead?” You get to have fun either way, and if you are getting paid then you can play for longer. You seem to be clinging on to your bankroll very tightly because it is money you cannot really afford to lose. As I sad before, you really shouldn’t be gambling with it, but if you must then you should at least play with the biggest SCORE you can get.

lets say the next 100 hours i play will be a huge downswing.. if i spread $10-$30, i will lose it all faster than if i just do $10.

Not if your bigger bets are placed at the right time, which they should be if you are counting. And even if the big bets fail, the short-term variance will not be that much more severe than if you were flat betting. I’ve mentioned that already. There is a great explanation of this in Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack book. I highly recommend it. You can find a used copy for about $5-$10 on the internet.

you wouldnt be happy making $1/hr, but i would, because i went from losing $3/hr to winning $1/hr which is good

But you aren’t happy only playing a few hands per hour, so it doesn’t matter what advantage you could theoretically get if you aren't willing to get it. The money is secondary to you. Your first priority is having fun, followed by trying to make money. If you always put fun in front of profit then you will probably never achieve the latter because you are always caught up in the former.

if you are playing bj as your job (making at least $10/hr), and you dont have at least a $10,000 bankroll, your a moron

You never said that you planned to do it for a living. Since you already have a full time job I was assuming that you were just looking for a source of supplimental income. In that case you can start playing with $1,000 and be fine. If you're trying to make a living out of it, I wouldn't advise anything less than a $35,000 bankroll, and even that's pretty slim.

uh, ya, im playing at positive counts, because the only positive count i dont have +ev on is when im between 0 and 1, and 2+ occurs more than 0-1

You’re playing all positive running counts. That’s much different than playing all positive true counts. I just want to make sure that you know you have an advantage in this game, because you may not depending on the rules and your playing style. Playing like that is a close call. Either way, you are playing a break-even game. That means the variance will grind you down at the same rate either way.

the way i see it, putting more money down may increase your chances, but it will increase your volatility.

Spreading $10-$30 will not increase the volatility much more than flat betting $10, but the EV will increase more than the variance. That’s why the ROR is lower. You’re earning more money for about the same amount of risk. It will increase your profit, increase your chances of winning, reduce the time it takes to grow your bankroll and reduce the chances of losing your bankroll. What’s not to like?

im counting cards, why wouldnt i post here, and why wouldnt i consider myself an AP?

Because you seem to be very happy playing at a disadvantage. You’ve gotten some very good advice from several people here, yet you would rather play at a disadvantage in order to have more fun. You’re willing to sacrifice money for fun. That’s the difference. An AP will get the biggest advantage he can and have fun doing it while a non-AP will have as much fun as he can and maybe try to win some money. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it doesn’t make you an AP in my opinion, at least not yet.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

uh, ya, im playing at positive counts, because the only positive count i dont have +ev on is when im between 0 and 1, and 2+ occurs more than 0-1 (i said BETWEEN 0-1, not "under 1")...

im almost positive that the count of +2 or more occurs more than the count of 1/6 to 1

I'll take a quick second shot too.

In case you mean that a TC+0 (assuming all TC's <+1 are rounded down and TC's of >= -1 and less than TC +0 are rounded down), then I do think that the you will play more hands at TC>=+1 than you will between TC>=0 and <TC=1.

Which isn't to say you may still be playing at +EV.

Also, what do u mean by losing your money "faster" compared to some mild spread?

Bet how much and when again in what game dealt to what pen?

Do you mean more dollars per hand played?

More dollars per hour played?

More dollars per hour spent in a casino observing hands?

More average bet units per hand/hour etc?

Like Sonny says, your variance doesn't really change by much at each TC.

As far as proving

"but chances are i will lose that $1000 FASTER than if i flat bet the min with wonging and indexes, now if i am wrong on that, prove it to me.. i would like a program that proves to me that i will have a decent shot by spreading, and that i wont lose it all in a blink due to variance"

rather than listen to strangers, I still suggest spending $100, or whatever, despite your $1k ROLL, on sim software that will answer your own questions and benefit you for a lifetime.

Maybe learn the effect of jumping a bet or not, the effect of cutting an extra half-deck or not etc.

Just how I imagine it, since I don't actually have any sim software.

 

[Kasi]

this is the other thing i'm curious about. these various 'progressions' or varying bets in a "betting system" as you say.
reason i ask this is that the most difficult thing for me when i'm employing my fuzzy count is determining how much to bet up and exactly when. it's like often i sense that a small progression (or at least continuing on with my raised bet) at times when i know darned well the true count is high (just not exactly how high) would stand a chance of working out well. any thoughts on this?

I know I'll get crucified for this, the more so since it's in the "card-counting" forum, but when I vary my bets, even when counting, if my goal is to say "break even", which it usually is when I'm "gambling", while I do tend to increase my bet in a positive count, overall, I rely more on the mathematics of betting how many units for how many hands with a chance of finishing X units ahead in a negative EV stuation with a roll of so-many-flat-units.

So, while I may tend to use a "more exact" count than your "fuzzy" count, as I understand it (perhaps only based on the cards dealt that particular round),
I think the more important factor, in general, rather than count, is that, even flat-betting with no knowledge of any count, is how often one will finish X flat-units ahead after betting a roll of so-many-units for so-many-hands.

Pretty much, as a beginning, as we all know, if I can make up one net unit (by perhaps only winning one bet at a double-unit) once every 3 hours or so, I'm golden. Imagine the possibilities from there kind of thing.

Next thing you know, you've wagered $1MM, picked up an extra 1% payback along the way and have a couple extra bucks.

Or not :grin:

 

[sagefr0g]

I know I'll get crucified for this, the more so since it's in the "card-counting" forum,
:

heh, heh .it's in conjunction with card counting so it might be allright...

but when I vary my bets, even when counting, if my goal is to say "break even", which it usually is when I'm "gambling", while I do tend to increase my bet

in a positive count, overall, I rely more on the mathematics of betting how many units for how many hands with a chance of finishing X units ahead in a

negative EV stuation with a roll of so-many-flat-units.
:

if i'm understanding correctly it could be said in other words that if say you are counting then you have the benifit of some advantage as the result of

increasing your bet in a positive count and mathematically you know the chance of finishing x units ahead while flat betting a given number of units for a

given number of hands in a negative EV situation (ie. playing basic strategy, using indices according to the count against a given overall house edge).
so i think what you mean by finishing x units ahead must be the positive fluctuation a flat betting basic strategy only player can expect to encounter as

opposed to negative fluctuation the player could expect and the loss expected according to the house edge. so if i got it right then your dealing with a luck of the draw sort of situation (as you say "when you are gambling" with a "break even" goal)

So, while I may tend to use a "more exact" count than your "fuzzy" count, as I understand it (perhaps only based on the cards dealt that particular round)
:

a more exact count i'm sure but for my part not based only on the cards dealt for a particular round but judging the cumulative results on a round by round basis albeit in a fuzzy way looking at the present situation if you will so that one can ask one's self what is the value of this game now and what is it worth betting on (with the hope of catching a double down, blackjack or just winning a normal hand).

,
I think the more important factor, in general, rather than count, is that, even flat-betting with no knowledge of any count, is how often one will finish X

flat-units ahead after betting a roll of so-many-units for so-many-hands.
Pretty much, as a beginning, as we all know, if I can make up one net unit (by perhaps only winning one bet at a double-unit) once every 3 hours or so, I'm

golden. Imagine the possibilities from there kind of thing.

Next thing you know, you've wagered $1MM, picked up an extra 1% payback along the way and have a couple extra bucks.

Or not
:

i guess what i wonder about this is the question of whether or not such a scenerio is time dependent with respect to how many hands you are playing or not.
i would suspect it's not very time dependent so that results could stretch from once every 3 hours or so to heavon forbid years...
but i believe there is a sizeable N0 before one reachs the hopeless point at which the house edge dominates the flat betting basic strategy player.
but maybe i am not understanding the point your making.

 

[Cardcounter]

Find A game with above average rules!

The best advice I can give you is play at the Siena or Boomtown where you can play with the best rules where your starting disadvantage is .25% if you only flat bet the table minimum you will get no heat. If you are lucky enough to get a $10 match play when the table minimum is $5 please bet $10 instead of $5 for that hand at least. I wonder if it is possible to beat the game by having the worlds smallest spread bet $5 when the deck is neutral to negative and bet $6 when the deck is positive. If you want to flat bet the table minimum that is fine but play where you have the best rules.