I have recently aquired the skill of counting (Hi/Lo) and have recently discovered indexes and how to use them (mainly studying illustrious 18) but I am confused about the idea of buying insurance at =>3. Am I supposed to do this every time no matter what my hand is or only when I have a decent hand? I tried this procedure the other night and lost both my insurance and my crappy hands over and over it seemed like. I know one night is no way to base anything off of, but it just seems odd to insure a cruddy hand against and Ace. Any info would be appreciated.
Insurance at =>3 even on bad hands?
- Thread starter qwerty
- Start date
Sabre is right
The value of your hand has nothing to do with taking insurence. If your hand is 9 or 15 and he pulls out the X card, you still lose the same amount of money. One thing you have to realize about using hi/lo is that you IC (insurence correlation) is only .76. This means that you are not always going to correctly take or not take insurence even if your count calls for the bet. With that said though... Always take insurence if your count calls for it. In the long run, this is a safe bet and the count will help you. If you are not satisfied with it, I say learn a new system. Hi-OptI is a safe bet (no pun intended). The IC of the Hi-Opt is .85 and if you add in the Ace count, you're looking at a fairly close BC and a better PE than hi/lo in SD and 2D games. The only difference between Hi/lo and Hi-Opt is Aces and Dueces are neutral and you keep an Ace side count. Almost as easy as Hi/lo (only a .5 difference in ease of use) and gives you a much more accurate count. Think about it and I hope your future insurence bets go better for you.
The value of your hand has nothing to do with taking insurence. If your hand is 9 or 15 and he pulls out the X card, you still lose the same amount of money. One thing you have to realize about using hi/lo is that you IC (insurence correlation) is only .76. This means that you are not always going to correctly take or not take insurence even if your count calls for the bet. With that said though... Always take insurence if your count calls for it. In the long run, this is a safe bet and the count will help you. If you are not satisfied with it, I say learn a new system. Hi-OptI is a safe bet (no pun intended). The IC of the Hi-Opt is .85 and if you add in the Ace count, you're looking at a fairly close BC and a better PE than hi/lo in SD and 2D games. The only difference between Hi/lo and Hi-Opt is Aces and Dueces are neutral and you keep an Ace side count. Almost as easy as Hi/lo (only a .5 difference in ease of use) and gives you a much more accurate count. Think about it and I hope your future insurence bets go better for you.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
If the count calls for insurance, take insurance. (Or even money if you're lucky enough to have a BJ... same thing).
In fact, if you have a crappy hand, it might even drive down the count high enough to where you should take insurance. For instance, if you get a pair of 6s, that extra 2 points to the running count might put you over the threshold to take insurance.
The other thing to remember is that insurance is a somewhat "risky" bet because it pays 2:1. So the dealer is only going to have a blackjack about a third of the time.
Since it doesn't come up that often, you can go through hot and cold streaks on insurance bets.
In fact, if you have a crappy hand, it might even drive down the count high enough to where you should take insurance. For instance, if you get a pair of 6s, that extra 2 points to the running count might put you over the threshold to take insurance.
The other thing to remember is that insurance is a somewhat "risky" bet because it pays 2:1. So the dealer is only going to have a blackjack about a third of the time.
Since it doesn't come up that often, you can go through hot and cold streaks on insurance bets.
callipygian
Well-Known Member
I'd actually recommend not taking insurance on any hand you're going to surrender, unless you've got a huge bet out and plan to leave the table imminently.
The problem with insuring surrender hands is that it's suspicious. You insure, lose, and then surrender. It's absolutely the right play to make, but it's suspicious as hell. It's a big flag that says to the dealer, "I either know exactly what I'm doing or I have no clue what I'm doing."
If you plan on leaving before any possible heat arrives, then you shouldn't care what the dealer thinks of you.
The problem with insuring surrender hands is that it's suspicious. You insure, lose, and then surrender. It's absolutely the right play to make, but it's suspicious as hell. It's a big flag that says to the dealer, "I either know exactly what I'm doing or I have no clue what I'm doing."
If you plan on leaving before any possible heat arrives, then you shouldn't care what the dealer thinks of you.
Cardcounter
Well-Known Member
Ploppy insurance
Well ploppy insurance is when you only insure good hands. First of all when you take inurance you are not betting on your hand you are betting on the dealers hand your hand has nothing to do with it other than to give you the count. A lot of times you will be better off insuring a bad hand such as 5-8 rather than a good hand such as 10-10. Even if you insure correctly you will still lose the bet the majority of the time you get a 2 to 1 payout so if you win it more than once for every 3 times played you will win more money. The key to winning insurance is to figure out when there is a surplus of 10's left in the deck greater than a 2 to 1 ratio to other cards.
Well ploppy insurance is when you only insure good hands. First of all when you take inurance you are not betting on your hand you are betting on the dealers hand your hand has nothing to do with it other than to give you the count. A lot of times you will be better off insuring a bad hand such as 5-8 rather than a good hand such as 10-10. Even if you insure correctly you will still lose the bet the majority of the time you get a 2 to 1 payout so if you win it more than once for every 3 times played you will win more money. The key to winning insurance is to figure out when there is a surplus of 10's left in the deck greater than a 2 to 1 ratio to other cards.
callipygian
Well-Known Member
What, I can't insure this hand versus a dealer 10?EasyRhino said:
Diver,
I doubt that is really neccessary, most dealers just think you are insuring because you are betting more than usual (since you are only doing it when the count is high).
I appreciate the responses to my original post, I played today and won a couple of insurance bets and it all made sense. It feels weird to be rooting for the dealer to have a blackjack though.
I doubt that is really neccessary, most dealers just think you are insuring because you are betting more than usual (since you are only doing it when the count is high).
I appreciate the responses to my original post, I played today and won a couple of insurance bets and it all made sense. It feels weird to be rooting for the dealer to have a blackjack though.
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Sorta fun to win one of those larger bets while those who never take insurance just grit their teeth as you get paid off.qwerty said:Diver,
I appreciate the responses to my original post, I played today and won a couple of insurance bets and it all made sense. It feels weird to be rooting for the dealer to have a blackjack though.
Agreed
One thing that I've always done to avoid the watchful eye is my bet spread. I use a 2-8 spread (which looks like 1-4 to the house cause they don't know what your unit is) where my opening bet is 20 dollars with 5 dollar chips. In SD and 2D games, when the count is positive, i pretty much just "press" my chips which seems like a touristic "let it ride" move. Now if you think about it, insuring your big bets isnt all that suspicious and when the count is good, you have more money out there AND the dealer is more likely to have a blackjack. So, the act of the big shot tourist not wanting to lose his money takes the insurance bet and covers his ass looks legit if you use a smart betting spread and counting system. It has worked for me.
Completely agree with you Driver. It's a great feeling.Diver said:
One thing that I've always done to avoid the watchful eye is my bet spread. I use a 2-8 spread (which looks like 1-4 to the house cause they don't know what your unit is) where my opening bet is 20 dollars with 5 dollar chips. In SD and 2D games, when the count is positive, i pretty much just "press" my chips which seems like a touristic "let it ride" move. Now if you think about it, insuring your big bets isnt all that suspicious and when the count is good, you have more money out there AND the dealer is more likely to have a blackjack. So, the act of the big shot tourist not wanting to lose his money takes the insurance bet and covers his ass looks legit if you use a smart betting spread and counting system. It has worked for me.
If your feeling a sting in our bankroll because of this you may want to either target a game that has a better set of rules or, adjust your betting unit.
i dont know what the odds are but I do know at a tc of +3 you take insurance.
If you have BJ and the dealer is showing an ace, you take even money.
i dont know what the odds are but I do know at a tc of +3 you take insurance.
If you have BJ and the dealer is showing an ace, you take even money.
qwerty said:
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Wineburg
Member
Ive never thought about that. Can you take insurance if you have blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace? And do you mean that if you do you take even money?mdlbj said:
That would be sweet if you could take insurance because thats basically 90% chance of winning half of your original bet.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
They're equivalent.
Lets say you have a natural. Your bet is 1. You take insurance, it cost you 0.5. The insurance bet pays an additional 1. You get 1.5 units sent back in aggregate. Your original hand had its bet push, so you get that unite back too.
You've bet a total of 1.5 units, and received 2.5 units in return. The net result is a win of 1 unit.
Or, if you nave a natural, you just say "gimme even money" and the dealer pays you 1 unit. Saving a lot of paperwork.
The bets are equivalent in terms of house edge.
Lets say you have a natural. Your bet is 1. You take insurance, it cost you 0.5. The insurance bet pays an additional 1. You get 1.5 units sent back in aggregate. Your original hand had its bet push, so you get that unite back too.
You've bet a total of 1.5 units, and received 2.5 units in return. The net result is a win of 1 unit.
Or, if you nave a natural, you just say "gimme even money" and the dealer pays you 1 unit. Saving a lot of paperwork.
The bets are equivalent in terms of house edge.
Here's something interesting that happened at a Sp21 table:
Player has BJ and dealer has an A showing. Player gets his 3:2 before dealer peaks (player BJ wins over dealer BJ in Sp21.) Then dealer asks player if she wants insurance. Caught both of us by surprise but dealer said even insurance was available even after winning the hand.
Player has BJ and dealer has an A showing. Player gets his 3:2 before dealer peaks (player BJ wins over dealer BJ in Sp21.) Then dealer asks player if she wants insurance. Caught both of us by surprise but dealer said even insurance was available even after winning the hand.
