Introduction and Game Eval. (Solved ,bet ramp to slow)

[Jay217]

Making your top bet at any TC higher than +5 is a total waste of time.

Don

Thank you Don. Would you care to elaborate on why? Is it the frequency of those higher counts? Also why does software tell me this is optimal.

It's seeming more like my spread is too passive.

I've reevaluated my spread system quite a few times but I don't know what the proper system is for balancing risk and e.v. I'm not necessarily worried about table limits, but more so the proper proportional formula for a Bankroll.

 

[KewlJ]

This is actually one of the few times that I find myself disagreeing with Don...at least in this specific instance of double deck play.

As a player that plays mostly 6 deck (and occasionally 8 deck) shoe games, yes I whole heartedly agree with Don. As a matter of fact I would go even further and say Max bet should hit the felt by TC +4 at the latest. Some games I do +3. In the shoe games the higher true counts occur so infrequently that waiting any longer means you just don't get to take advantage of your full spread.

I think this is one of the problems with new players that read some of the older books, that have 'benchmark' unit and spreads where they raise by that benchmark unit, 1 at a time per true count, until they are max betting at TC +8, +10, +12, maybe even +16 or +20. These players "think" they are playing to a 1-12, or 1-16 spread, but they aren't really. They are in reality playing to a 1-4, 1-5 spread.

So that is shoe games. But what we are talking about here is double deck, and fairly reasonable penetration double deck, so those higher counts are going to occur fairly reasonably. You could wait until TC's of +6 or more and still get some advantage of that max bet because the TC frequency occurs fairly often.

I guess the reason I wouldn't do that is because you really don't want to show too many different betting levels at double deck (at any game for that matter) as it just makes it too obvious that you are spreading.

So, I too would like to hear Don's reasoning as per double deck games.

 

[DSchles]

"So, I too would like to hear Don's reasoning as per double deck games."

You cannot backcount DD games; that's a foolish notion. So just go to the Chapter 10 DD charts in BJA3, pick a reasonable game and spread, for play-all, and tell me where your max bet tops out.

Don

 

[DSchles]

"Thank you Don. Would you care to elaborate on why? Is it the frequency of those higher counts? Also why does software tell me this is optimal."

It is partially the frequency. It is also because, apparently, you entered back-count, which is somewhat of a ridiculous notion for DD. There really isn't any such concept, because any attempt to back-count DD will be met with instant ejection at virtually any casino on the planet.

Enter play-all and report back as to where your top bet is made.

Don

 

[KewlJ]

To tell the truth, I have always found back-counting at any game to be problematic. I am talking about traditional stand behind a table counting and jump in. Some of that was bad timing on my part. When I was based on the east coast I was playing very low limit and tables were very crowded. There was rarely an empty seat at the low limit table(s) and if there was....nothing worse that back counting and have someone "gobble up" the empty seat or 2 just when the count became worth jumping in.

When I moved to Vegas, I was playing green and there are plenty of empty tables. Back counting and spreading to multiple hands were two techniques I though I would be able to employ a lot of and neither worked out, for different reasons. For back counting, while I know others do it, or say they do it, even here in Vegas, I just have found standing behind a fairly empty table with 1 or 2 players looks suspicious. I only takes a few seconds before both pit and other players notice you usually. They might not say anything, but you are noticed. And I am sure by surveillance as well.

So my back counting has been limited to two experiences. 1.) is just walking through a casino and seeing a bunch of small cards on the felt. Depending on just how many small cards I may jump in but if it is only one or to players, I might need a second round of positive count (small cards coming out) to hit my threshold. I can get away with watching for 1 round.

My second senario and one that I employ a lot, usuall a couple times a day, is counting or (back-counting) a second table while playing my primary table. That really has become my specialty in back counting. It is sort of a blend of "play-all" that allows you to play significantly more rounds at positive and max bet counts.

I play mostly shoe games so that is sort of what I consider my specialty. But I play a bit of double deck too and I have to agree with Don, I see very little opportunity to back-count on double deck. Maybe that occasional "walk by a table" scenario already mentioned, but by the time you jump in, you get a round or two. Seems like a lot of "scrutiny" for a round or two.

 

[DSchles]

FWIW, I agree with everything you've written. But, all I can add is that the old days in Las Vegas were profoundly different and that you missed out on the Golden Era of blackjack opportunities.

Don

 

[KewlJ]

FWIW, I agree with everything you've written. But, all I can add is that the old days in Las Vegas were profoundly different and that you missed out on the Golden Era of blackjack opportunities.

Don

I know. I don't know what to say....I wish Dad has gotten started a little sooner.

Seriously, I feel like I am slightly out of my time period. I love all things Vegas, especially anything to do with the time period mentioned, both blackjack and Vegas.

I still love card counting to which most AP's that have been around for a while move on from. I actually just moved back towards card counting, discontinuing some of the other supplemental AP stuff that I was doing. What can I say....I am a salamander at heart.

Maybe someday, someone will invent a time machine and I can get back to where I belong.

 

[21forme]

FWIW, I agree with everything you've written. But, all I can add is that the old days in Las Vegas were profoundly different and that you missed out on the Golden Era of blackjack opportunities.

Ah, the good old days...

I don't know if it's still the case as I haven't been there for several years, but the place at the south end of the strip that you might think was in Burma, permitted mid-deck entry on their DD games last time I was there. For all I know, it's all 6:5 8D shoes now...

 

[KewlJ]

Ah, the good old days...

Ya know, in 15-20 years players will be referring to today as the "good old days" with winnable blackjack. We gotta get out there and take advantage of it.

 

[Stevel96a1]

To tell the truth, I have always found back-counting at any game to be problematic. I am talking about traditional stand behind a table counting and jump in. Some of that was bad timing on my part. When I was based on the east coast I was playing very low limit and tables were very crowded. There was rarely an empty seat at the low limit table(s) and if there was....nothing worse that back counting and have someone "gobble up" the empty seat or 2 just when the count became worth jumping in.

When I moved to Vegas, I was playing green and there are plenty of empty tables. Back counting and spreading to multiple hands were two techniques I though I would be able to employ a lot of and neither worked out, for different reasons. For back counting, while I know others do it, or say they do it, even here in Vegas, I just have found standing behind a fairly empty table with 1 or 2 players looks suspicious. I only takes a few seconds before both pit and other players notice you usually. They might not say anything, but you are noticed. And I am sure by surveillance as well.

So my back counting has been limited to two experiences. 1.) is just walking through a casino and seeing a bunch of small cards on the felt. Depending on just how many small cards I may jump in but if it is only one or to players, I might need a second round of positive count (small cards coming out) to hit my threshold. I can get away with watching for 1 round.

My second senario and one that I employ a lot, usuall a couple times a day, is counting or (back-counting) a second table while playing my primary table. That really has become my specialty in back counting. It is sort of a blend of "play-all" that allows you to play significantly more rounds at positive and max bet counts.

I play mostly shoe games so that is sort of what I consider my specialty. But I play a bit of double deck too and I have to agree with Don, I see very little opportunity to back-count on double deck. Maybe that occasional "walk by a table" scenario already mentioned, but by the time you jump in, you get a round or two. Seems like a lot of "scrutiny" for a round or two.

Damn kooljay you hit home on your first paragraph, that was my experience in ac and sands pa, after an hour or so i would find a positive shoe and bam the table gets crowded, again back counting on east coast is not worth the effort imho but if you go the time go for it spread it BIG! makes you even look more like a gambler lol

i guess us east coasters are more gamble hungry then LV area residents

 

[stopgambling]

originally he/she said it was NMSE DD blackjack then in the sim it said pure back counting. This doesn't make sense to me . Score looks out of whack anyway. . A SCORE of 200 ? really?

 

[BoSox]

Don:

"Making your top bet at any TC higher than +5 is a total waste of time."

So that is shoe games. But what we are talking about here is double deck, and fairly reasonable penetration double deck, so those higher counts are going to occur fairly reasonably. You could wait until TC's of +6 or more and still get some advantage of that max bet because the TC frequency occurs fairly often.

I guess the reason I wouldn't do that is because you really don't want to show too many different betting levels at double deck (at any game for that matter) as it just makes it too obvious that you are spreading.

You cannot backcount DD games; that's a foolish notion. So just go to the Chapter 10 DD charts in BJA3, pick a reasonable game and spread, for play-all, and tell me where your max bet tops out.

My min bet is 15 or 25. My maximum at a 6% edge or higher is 200 or 2x150. My ROR is 1.8%

Jay, just as long as you understand waiting for a 6% edge for making that max bet is ridiculous and not even close to either of Don's or KewlJ's numbers. For what it's worth I agree with Don, and will use KJ's explanation " you really don't want to show too many different betting levels at double deck (at any game for that matter) as it just makes it too obvious that you are spreading.".
Plus I believe you would be getting a little extra EV % edge at times due to floating advantage.

 

[ZenKinG]

To tell the truth, I have always found back-counting at any game to be problematic. I am talking about traditional stand behind a table counting and jump in. Some of that was bad timing on my part. When I was based on the east coast I was playing very low limit and tables were very crowded. There was rarely an empty seat at the low limit table(s) and if there was....nothing worse that back counting and have someone "gobble up" the empty seat or 2 just when the count became worth jumping in.

When I moved to Vegas, I was playing green and there are plenty of empty tables. Back counting and spreading to multiple hands were two techniques I though I would be able to employ a lot of and neither worked out, for different reasons. For back counting, while I know others do it, or say they do it, even here in Vegas, I just have found standing behind a fairly empty table with 1 or 2 players looks suspicious. I only takes a few seconds before both pit and other players notice you usually. They might not say anything, but you are noticed. And I am sure by surveillance as well.

So my back counting has been limited to two experiences. 1.) is just walking through a casino and seeing a bunch of small cards on the felt. Depending on just how many small cards I may jump in but if it is only one or to players, I might need a second round of positive count (small cards coming out) to hit my threshold. I can get away with watching for 1 round.

My second senario and one that I employ a lot, usuall a couple times a day, is counting or (back-counting) a second table while playing my primary table. That really has become my specialty in back counting. It is sort of a blend of "play-all" that allows you to play significantly more rounds at positive and max bet counts.

I play mostly shoe games so that is sort of what I consider my specialty. But I play a bit of double deck too and I have to agree with Don, I see very little opportunity to back-count on double deck. Maybe that occasional "walk by a table" scenario already mentioned, but by the time you jump in, you get a round or two. Seems like a lot of "scrutiny" for a round or two.

I always laugh at the people such as yourself or Richard Munchkin who like to talk about backcounting like they have any real experience with it. If you guys had any actual experience with it, you wouldn't make the comments that you guys make and you would realize it's not problematic at all and actually it's the complete opposite when it comes to extending longevity as long you do it right and stay on the move coupled with short sessions, a small spread, ratholing, and staying within tolerance levels. The reason I know you don't what you're talking about when it comes to backcounting, is because that's ALL I DO and don't have any problems. Most of my backoffs came early on when I played a lot of heads up and spreading min to max 1x15 to 2x250. When I started strictly backcounting like I did in PA, i have literally never got backed off unless i brought attention to myself with some crazy stuff I say at the table, which is how Aria got me. That's right not even the most advanced surveillance in town could catch on to what I was doing until i brought attention to myself. The other times I got heat came from posting chips in a discord or just overstaying my welcome because I didn't give a shit that day. I'm sure now after this post ill get backed off, 'coincidentally', but guess what you guys still cant stop me.

Also, 99% of the time the pit is not even watching anyone behind the table and when they do they only have 'seconds' to judge the person standing there and that's the key. You should always be using your peripheral vision to know when the pit boss is about to face the table and when they do that, make sure you're watching something else at that exact moment. The ratio of you watching the table should be around 25% to 75% looking at something else. Not to mention, people underestimate how important body language is in all of this. I can't stress it enough, but never have your torso facing the table you're backcounting. The pit has seconds to make a judgement call on the people standing behind the table and once they see you standing sideways looking at something else, they write you off and before they know it you're sitting at the table buying in for small bits at a time with a 1-4 spread and they immediately think you're no threat at all.

In my opinion, backcounting is the best way to play this city. The only real problem is if you want to bet bigger than a $500 max aggregate because some shops do have that betting limit to prevent backcounters and teams, but even at 2x250 with backcounting, you're making a really nice hourly, and most shops don't have that restriction anyway. Also Munchkin tried to say on GWAE that most tables are 'no mid shoe' entry, which is patently false. The only no mid shoe entry tables are usually in hi-limit, but many hi limit rooms also let you jump in mid shoe, but on the main floor, you almost never will find a 'no mid shoe' entry table. Let me also say this, the ones who make fun of backcounting or say it's not possible are usually the same people that have some degen in them and need to create some type of rationalization to themselves that it's not possible to give them an excuse to get 'action' in.

Glad I can clear up all the misinformation.

 

[LC Larry]

Zenking writes: "I always laugh at the people such as yourself or Richard Munchkin"

LC Larry say: "I always laugh at people who still count cards in this day and age."

Zenking writes: "In my opinion, backcounting is the best way to play this city."

LC Larry says: "completely wrong."

 

[KewlJ]

I don't know what I am talking about? Munchkin doesn't know what he is talking about? (at least that puts me in good company).

Just think about what you are saying. Last year I went over a million dollars in blackjack earnings at a time when blackjack card counting is "supposedly dead" or on the severe decline. A time that most AP's have moved on to other areas of advantage play. And the only reason I haven't made more than that is because I have chosen to remain at the level of play I currently play for longevity reasons.

I am not competing with you or anyone, but I think I know what I am doing. I have a game plan that I designed for my specific location, Las Vegas, and situation and am executing it with precision. So you forgive me if I reject the advice from a guy who's bankroll has shrank during his two years playing Vegas.

When I share my opinion about different things like backcounting, it is based on not only my own experiences but also the experiences and opinions of other players that I network and communicate with. Most are pretty successful and I value their opinion. I also have two different friends that work the other side of the tables, that I count among those that I value their opinions on such matters of what draws attention and what doesn't.

You seem to think everyone is at war with you, and alienate everyone who offers you any advice. No wonder you have gone backwards in your 2 years here.

One final thing I want to say. If you think because you have done something for a short time and haven't gotten a lot of backoffs, that means anything, you are mistaken. There are reasons a casino and/or casino personnel may choose not to backoff players even though they know exactly what they are doing. At the top of that list would be that for whatever reason, they don't currently view you as a threat.

That can and will change in a blink of an eye. We recently saw it in this community with Zeebabar. Despite that numerous players told him not to do this or that, he would fight us and say, I am not receiving any heat and kept right on. The next thing you know he is getting back offs and has numerous entries in various databases.

 

[KewlJ]

Here is the little antidote I told Zeebabar a while back. It is relevant with you too.

A construction worker falls from the top of a ten story building he is working on. On the way down as he falls past the 5th floor, a fellow worker yell's out "How is it going Bob?" Bob replies "so far so good". BUT it is not likely to end well for Bob.

 

[DSchles]

An antidote is for poison. Try again!

Don

 

[KewlJ]

Strange. This was one of the few times that I knew I had the wrong word, so I looked it up after I wrote it, and actually corrected it to anecdote. Somehow I must not have hit 'save' after doing so and didn't bother to check again.

And on top of that, it really isn't an anecdote, but more of an anology.

 

[ZenKinG]

KJ, did i say you didn't know what you were talking about as a 'whole' or did i say you didnt know what you were talking about when it comes to backcounting. Way to show your insecurity though immediately talking about made x amount of money and then comparing it to my bankroll declining to prove your point as if that means anything. My bankroll declined because I simply havent played it enough and expenses bringing it down as well as running bad at -1SD since I've been here, but you 'coincidentally' manage to leave that out to fit your argument that you know what you're doing and I don't. Funny.

 

[JohnCrover]

How do you get the 1 million number KewlJ? Is that with expenses factored in?