Just need to vent - reassurance, anyone? :-)

[sagefr0g]

Boy these seem like big swings to me. You're saying 50-60 units (assuming unit is min bet) would be like within 1 standard deviation?

I guess it depends on the usual culprits but in general it just sounds like alot to me.

I mean certainly possible but perhaps not usual?

Of course a mostly min flat better like me has trouble relating to losses like this. And wins too!

Kasi i thought you'd find this interesting. an excerpt from Arnold Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack.
"In an hour of play or about one hundred hands in a dead even game, you generally will not be ahead or behind by more than 20 units. On rare occasiions however in a single hour of play, you may expect to be ahead or behind as many as 35-40 units.
If you play off and on over a period of a few days--say ten hours of play, or about a thousand hands -- you probably won't be ahead or behind by more than 75 units but on rare occasions you might be ahead or behind by 120 units in a one thousand hand period. These estimates of fluctuations assume you always bet only one unit on each hand ....."
i suppose this gives one a pretty good idea how standard deviation in blackjack behaves.

 

[Kasi]

Kasi i thought you'd find this interesting. an excerpt from Arnold Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack.
"In an hour of play or about one hundred hands in a dead even game, you generally will not be ahead or behind by more than 20 units. On rare occasiions however in a single hour of play, you may expect to be ahead or behind as many as 35-40 units.
If you play off and on over a period of a few days--say ten hours of play, or about a thousand hands -- you probably won't be ahead or behind by more than 75 units but on rare occasions you might be ahead or behind by 120 units in a one thousand hand period. These estimates of fluctuations assume you always bet only one unit on each hand ....."
i suppose this gives one a pretty good idea how standard deviation in blackjack behaves.

Thank you O Wise Frog as usual lol.

I would think flat-betting a 100 hands and losing 20 units would also be outside 1 standard deviation although I don't know what he means by a "dead even game". But, like u say, not exactly unusual. Whatever "usual" might be. Would u call 1 in 20 usual? I kind of go with 1 standard deviation as "usual". And using spreads pretty much throws everything out the window.

And losing 40 or more units in a typical game flat betting in an hour would be 1 in the thousands.

So I was thinking an awful lot of typical spreads average a bet about twice the unit so that's why I was thinking 50-60 units seemed perhaps a litltle high as typical.

Losing 120 units in a 1000 hands would also be 1 in the thousands and over 3 standard deviations but certainly happens every day lol.

Hey as long as u know what to expect with whatever game and bet spread u use, everything's copasetic