Kelly Conundrum

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mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Lets take a step back here.. Once your Bankroll unit is $10, you are still going to play at a $5 table. You betting unit will be $5, your Bankroll unit will be 10, reducing your ROR with the .5 kelly. This is when you can spread to a 12/1.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
mdlbj said:
Lets take a step back here.. Once your Bankroll unit is $10, you are still going to play at a $5 table. You betting unit will be $5, your Bankroll unit will be 10, reducing your ROR with the .5 kelly. This is when you can spread to a 12/1.
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Wait, this is SD. Spread 12:1, and you might want to put a large city phone book down the back of your pants before you start.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
bj bob said:
That will make my next trip to the High Sierra a little more interesting.
Hey Zg, BTW thanks for sending me that stash of toad powder for my induction to Exec. Member status. It reminds me of the good 'ol '60's. Sure been feelin' warm and fuzzy all evening. Does it also come in menthol?
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Here's the backup on that from Andrew Weil -

by Davis, Wade, and Andrew Weil​

In Ancient Mesoamerica 1992 3 (1): 51-59.​

And​


by Davis, Wade, and Andrew Weil​

in Journal of Ethnopharmacology 1994 41 (1-2): 1-8.​
Profound alteration of consciousness within a few seconds of exhaling. I relax into a deep, peaceful interior awareness. There is nothing scary about the effects and no sense of toxicity. I try to describe my feeling but am unable to talk for the first five minutes and then only with some difficultly. This is a powerful psychoactive drug, one that I think would appeal to most people who like the effects of hallucinogens. For the next hour I feel slow and velvety, with a slight pressure in my head. No long-lasting effects to report. (Andrew T. Weil, personal observation, January 12, 1991)


​

​
 
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bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
Automatic Monkey said:
Wait, this is SD. Spread 12:1, and you might want to put a large city phone book down the back of your pants before you start.
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Amen! And while you're at it tell the suits "I'll escort myself out the front door and thank you for the cab fare to the airport."
 
M

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Hmm 5x12 = 70 dollars. If you are escorted out at that level of play. You suck.

If you are playing more than 1 hand your playing at roughly 75% of your betting unit x the advantage.

3 hands at 50% of your betting unit x the advantage.

Listen girls, 70 bucks in action is not going to get you banned from anywhere.
 
M

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Good.. Thats exactly what I was looking for. Does the math suck?

What is a 12:1 spread at a .5 kelly (5500 Bankroll) with a $5 dollar betting unit with the max bet out?

Look at whats on the table, not at the distractions and react to them. Read the whole thread. Dont get caught up in the moment or a little distraction.

P.S Im on a real swing in the writing of this book. Its very negative so please excuse the ignorance of my posts. They are influenced by a Young Chinese sociology major. She is hot..
 
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K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
bj bob said:
I am currently playing $5 units on SD and have started with a $2700 BR for these purposes only. I assume that this amount represents full (BJ) Kelly for a $5-20 spread.
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So what exactly are the rules and pen of the SD game you play most often that led to that assumption? Do you play a bunch of different penetrations or rules?

Just curious because it's possible it could make a difference as to what constitutes full Kelly.

Anyway, be careful what you ask for - the variances in bankroll can be extremely high playing full kelly. I think lol.

Sounds like you don't have a sim.

Anyway, it seems quite possible to me you might be playing at less than full kelly. Which is a good thing.

So keep doing it for a while lol.
 
M

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
Depends on the ev of each hand he is playing. If he is only playing with a positive count he has a good start.

Kasi said:
So what exactly are the rules and pen of the SD game you play most often that led to that assumption? Do you play a bunch of different penetrations or rules?

Just curious because it's possible it could make a difference as to what constitutes full Kelly.

Anyway, be careful what you ask for - the variances in bankroll can be extremely high playing full kelly. I think lol.

Sounds like you don't have a sim.

Anyway, it seems quite possible to me you might be playing at less than full kelly. Which is a good thing.

So keep doing it for a while lol.
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EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
HE'S PLAYING RENO SINGLE DECK! Sooner or later, usually sooner, you're going to be stuck with negative counts playing single deck.

BTW, out of curiosity I did some basic sims with the restrictive "Reno" (D10) single deck rules... and the results were worse than I expected. Better than play-all in a shoe game, but worse than a decent doubledeck game with good penetration. And to think, when I was bumbling around Reno, I thought I was playing the cat's meow of card counting.
 
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Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
EasyRhino said:
HE'S PLAYING RENO SINGLE DECK! Sooner or later, usually sooner, you're going to be stuck with negative counts playing single deck.

BTW, out of curiosity I did some basic sims with the restrictive "Reno" (D10) single deck rules... and the results were worse than I expected. Better than play-all in a shoe game, but worse than a decent doubledeck game with good penetration. And to think, when I was bumbling around Reno, I thought I was playing the cat's meow of card counting.
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The problem is, try finding good pen in DD these days. In most places you're bettter off playing the shoes than the DD.

SD is one environment where using a stronger, more play-oriented count can help you. With a good count and plenty of indices even Reno D10 rules can be played for a tiny advantage with a flat bet.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
bj bob said:
It's my understanding that the Kelly ratio when used for BJ is supposed to be .76% of true Kelly due to the less than 50/50 nature of the game as well as accounting for doubles and splits, correct?
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Technically it does, but the adjustment is made to the variance not the advantage. The reason BJ players use 76% Kelly is because of the higher variance. Instead of the standard “Bankroll * Advantage” formula we use a modified “Bankroll * Advantage / Variance” formula. This formula works better for most casino games because the payoffs are often not even money so the advantage has to be adjusted for the risk. For example, with a $2,700 BR and a 2% edge you would bet about $2,7000 * .02 / 1.33 = $40.60.

-Sonny-
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
Technically it does, but the adjustment is made to the variance not the advantage. The reason BJ players use 76% Kelly is because of the higher variance. Instead of the standard “Bankroll * Advantage” formula we use a modified “Bankroll * Advantage / Variance” formula. This formula works better for most casino games because the payoffs are often not even money so the advantage has to be adjusted for the risk. For example, with a $2,700 BR and a 2% edge you would bet about $2,7000 * .02 / 1.33 = $40.60.

-Sonny-
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that's a pretty cool formula....
is there a link that summarizes the various formulas for the ideas such as
advantage, ROR, kelly, trip goals, ect. ? inother words a summarization of most of the formulas useful for AP's. i guess i've reviewed most of them at one time or another but it all gets kind of lost in the mix and a summary of sorts would probably help keep it all in perspective.
 
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