Know when to walk away

[Preston]

It all depends on the individual

Howdy, Just joined the forum.

I think everyone will have their own answer for this one and I think no one's is better than the other.

I strive to have a goal of making about 40% of what I bring into the casino. So If I bring in $500I leave when I make $200.

I gamble for a number of reasons, and I do know how to card count. However, I travel throughout the country and a lot of the casinos I'm playing at a 6 deck/hit soft 17/no surrender. The rules aren't great but I get my fix.

I'm a travelling performer and I'll have shows on various days of the week. My passion for gambling started as a way to pass time between gigs, but now it's become an obsession. I'd been looking for a new way to make $$ on the road, or to save money and blackjack has proven to be just that.

I think it will come down to the reason you are gambling. Either profesionally, recreationally, or just to pass time.

It will cost me at least $45-ish for ahotel room. Since most casinos are 24 hours I don't spend money on a hotel and gamble all night long. If I make a little money it's more the bonus and it's $45 saved on a hotel. Plus if I gamble long enough/heavy enough (I've been known to throw down $100 bets from time to time.. most I've made in one hand is $500) but usually I gamble enough to get a free buffet (which saves me on food) and/or a free hotel. So even if I break even I've still made money, but I haven't had losing week in 2 months. (ok ok.. there was a session I only walked away $5 up, but it was after being down $700)

Recently at a casino in Iowa, I made $100 (I was down $500) and got two free buffets (covered lunch and dinner) and they gave me a hotel room on top

I gambled for about 27 hours straight to do that though.

So here is my breakdown:

Money made: $100
Money saved: $90 ( hotel.. at least for 2 nights) $20 on food and of course it was quality entertainment.

It was on my way to my next gig anyway so there were no extra costs in getting there either.

I've figured out my best time to walk away is when I've gambled long enough to get my fix, I've passed enough time so I can continue on my way to the next gig, saved money via comps, and if I walk away ahead, even better. I think it will more times come down to the reason you're gambling in the first place.

 

[davidmcclung]

Preston:

I predict eventually you will get tired of losing in blackjack. I played for many years and had many winning sessions, but eventually I had long losing streaks and got tired of getting beat which you will experience no doubt. I have done much better in craps, and it is much easier to have net wins in craps in my opinion. Simply bet the 6 or 8(not both) after observing a few numbers prior to beginning play. Play with 10 units per session only and watch the wins pile up. So if you are betting $12 units, which pay $14 when hit, you only need $120 session bankroll. I have played this system for many hours and many sessions and done extremely well, try it WHEN you get tired of blackjack. You should have better results than blackjack I can assure you, even if you count in bj which is much overrated in my opinion.

 

[supercoolmancool]

I predict eventually you will get tired of losing in blackjack. I played for many years and had many winning sessions, but eventually I had long losing streaks and got tired of getting beat which you will experience no doubt. I have done much better in craps, and it is much easier to have net wins in craps in my opinion. Simply bet the 6 or 8(not both) after observing a few numbers prior to beginning play. Play with 10 units per session only and watch the wins pile up. So if you are betting $12 units, which pay $14 when hit, you only need $120 session bankroll. I have played this system for many hours and many sessions and done extremely well, try it WHEN you get tired of blackjack. You should have better results than blackjack I can assure you, even if you count in bj which is much overrated in my opinion.

Even if you count cards your odds are still better in craps! HA HA :laugh:

Actually that is a common misconception among craps players. I call it the fallacy of craps.

 

[supercoolmancool]

I don't know why you are so scared of blackjack. Your bad experience must have been caused by playing a negative bs game or negative variance card counting. But there is higher varience in craps! The swings will be wilder. Card counting swings should be no problem if you do it correctly with a proper bankroll. There is no proper bankroll for craps.

 

[ScottH]

There is no proper bankroll for craps.

Unless he uses a controlled throw or is playing correctly for comps.

 

[davidmcclung]

OK guys

Next time you get in those prolonged losing streaks in bj when you are busting and getting beat by one, just try my craps system, minimum needed is just $60 for you to test it out, which is ten times the minimum place bet of six dollars on a five dollar minimum table. This simple strategy is: observe a few rolls at a new table to determine if the 6 or 8 is rolled more. Then start place betting this number at level bets, no pressing or regressing. Bet the 6 or 8, dont bet both which ever is rolled more after you initially observe. I know this has worked for me much better than bj and is much better for your bankroll. Then again if you want to stick with bj that is ok with me too, its your money.

 

[Sonny]

I predict eventually you will get tired of losing in blackjack.

Yes, most of us have. That is why we learned to bet the game. After all, you can’t expect to consistently win money unless you have the advantage, right?

…it is much easier to have net wins in craps in my opinion.

I respect your opinion, as well as your right to express it, but the facts prove otherwise in this case. Feel free to say what you like, but I don’t want any newbies falling victim to such superstitious thinking. This website is dedicated to providing accurate and helpful information. You can’t expect to post a worthless betting system here and not get teased!

You should have better results than blackjack I can assure you, even if you count in bj which is much overrated in my opinion.

Then why are you hanging around a card counter’s website?

Next time you get in those prolonged losing streaks in bj when you are busting and getting beat by one, just try my craps system.

As a former craps dealer I have seen many people using this exact system. I can’t say that any of them came out ahead in the long run, or even very often in the short run.

This simple strategy is: observe a few rolls at a new table to determine if the 6 or 8 is rolled more. Then start place betting this number at level bets, no pressing or regressing. Bet the 6 or 8, dont bet both which ever is rolled more after you initially observe.

Ah yes, another betting system based on the imaginary “law of small numbers” which ignores all of the mathematical and physical laws that disprove it. Hooray for short-sighted gamblers!:laugh:

Just to inject a little rationality into this system I’ll explain exactly where it breaks down. First of all, the house has the edge at craps. If you make place bets on the 6 or 8, you will lose 55% of the time. That’s even worse than blackjack where an average player only loses 51% of his hands! You’re already starting off with a big handicap.

Secondly, the true odds of the bet are 1.2:1, but the house only pays you 1.167:1. Even when you win you are still losing money because the house is short-changing you on the payout! That’s a shortage of 1.51%, or about 1% worse than most blackjack games.

And third, your system ignores the fact that craps is a series of independent trials. The dice do not alter their behavior based on what the last roll was, or even the last 1,000 rolls! The fact that your system relies on “streaks” or “overdue” numbers to be useful is its biggest failure.

I think we can all agree that craps is a great game and it is a lot of fun to play, but don’t expect any betting system or “streak” system to give you an edge.

-Sonny-

 

[So_what_MD]

for my self this is the constant nagging question i'm faced with. i think when it comes to me this is a double quandry since i'm neither a recreational player or a professional. i play blackjack because it is recreation but the fun for me is all about the benjamins baby. intellectualy i accept the idea that a counting blackjack player makes the dough over time (or the long run) and in the final analysis i'm happy with that. so here is the rub, i find myself unable to abandon that negative feeling one has after a negative fluctuation session and i really like the positve feeling experienced after a positive fluctuation session.
from my perspective being able to play is a 'premium' situation ie. there is a substantial cost associated both for time and money. looking from the perspective of the overall gambling public i should imagine it is a relatively rare experience. so i don't take having the opportunity to play advantage balckjack lightly and i do put in a lot of time at the tables.
the thing is i'm torn between the enjoyment of making money in the long run and the 'high' experienced after winning sessions and making money in the long run and the 'downer' of losing sessions while all the time knowing in the long run i'm favorite as a winner as long as ROR doesn't get me.
here is what i've been doing lately to cope with the dammed if you do and dammed if you don't scenerio. i know i got an overall win rate per hour. i know that the results of an hours play is going to fluctuate in the short run by a given standard deviation. so what i do is to limit my play accordingly:
if i'm within one standard deviation above my expected hourly rate i will usually quit for the day or at least take a break for a while and feel the glory.
if i'm within one standard deviation below my expected hourly rate i'll keep on playing until i come out winner or lose my trip bankroll. the way i figure it the only negative affect this has is that i short myself a little bit of that premium playing time but i still get to carry home that high when i have winning sessions .

best regards,
mr fr0g

Mr Fr0g: finally I found someone that shared my exact feeling. I just didn't know how to put it in words like you did. I want to play/act/feel like a machine; stay as long as i can still make right decisions; win/lose will be decided by the odds in a long run. But I hate that LOSING feeling. From my 20 year experience, at the end of a big run 2% up is my STOP WIN point. Sometimes the run doesn't stop until I am 10% up ... GREAT. That is just PRICELESS!!! Yes, I maybe leaving hundreds on the table. But my "walking around feeling 10 feet tall" feeling is worth more. I bring about 20-30% as sessional BR. I play 0.8 Kelly. I bet 1 unit 3 squares per 0.5% edge and cap at 3 squares 4 units each. I have not lost my entire sessional in recent years. I give credit to my intuition to identify bad variance. Everybody is annoyed but Grif actually proved me right with a research from Iowa. That said, I still can't help a few times a year "blood bath, non stop bleeding". It is usually my insistence to play hours at tables with hours of bad variance. 50% BR down so far is my rock bottom. I rebuild in chewable bite size, 2-3% a day, 5 wins 2 losses is my norm. I will allow myself 5-6 weeks to get it back, and I always do. On the good side, I have had 30 non stop wins three times. Each time it almost doubled my BR. Thanx to blackjack GOD.

 

[DSchles]

"I give credit to my intuition to identify bad variance."

Not sure you realize how ignorant this statement is. If you could actually do that, someone would probably have to kill you.

People recognize bad variance AFTER it happens, not before. You're just being foolish and wasting everyone's time here.

Don

 

[LC Larry]

Exactly! If it were true, all of the professional psychics would clean out the casinos on a daily basis. Hell, they can even win lotteries.

 

[xengrifter]

I give credit to my intuition to identify bad variance.

Not sure you realize how ignorant this statement is

The man is crediting INTUITION, which transcends statistical-logic; and I believe has been proven to have merit.

 

[So_what_MD]

"I give credit to my intuition to identify bad variance."

Not sure you realize how ignorant this statement is. If you could actually do that, someone would probably have to kill you.

People recognize bad variance AFTER it happens, not before. You're just being foolish and wasting everyone's time here.

Don

Scientists have discovered that humans appear to have two, very different “operating systems.” System 1 is our quick, instinctual, and often subconscious way of operating – it is controlled by our right brain and by other parts of our brain that have been around since prehistoric times, known as the “limbic” and reptilian” parts of our brain. System 2 is our slower, more analytical, and conscious way of operating – it is controlled by our left brain and by newer parts of our brain that have only developed since prehistoric times (also known as the “neocortex”). Researchers have found that intuition is part of System 1, which is why it comes on so rapidly and often does not make rational sense to us. In other words, intuitive decisions are not something that we have thought out carefully with reason, but rather choices that have arisen quickly out of instinct.

But why, exactly, should we trust our gut instinct? One reason would be because researchers have found that System 1 often knows the right answer long before System 2 does. For example, in one study, researchers asked their subjects to play a card game where the goal was to win the most money. What the subjects did not realize, however, is that the game was rigged from the start. There were two stacks of cards to choose from; one was rigged to provide big wins followed by big losses, while the other deck was set up to provide small gains but almost no losses.

It took about 50 cards before the subjects said they had a hunch about which deck was safer, and about 80 cards before they could actually explain the difference between the two decks. However, what is most fascinating is that after only 10 cards the sweat glands on the subjects’ palms opened slightly every time they reached for a card in the dangerous deck. It was also around the tenth card that the subjects started to favor the safer deck, without being consciously aware that they were doing so. In other words, long before the analytical brain could explain what was going on, the subjects’ bodily intuition knew where there was danger, and guided them toward safety.

A similar study looked at people’s ability to predict whether a picture was behind Curtain #1 or Curtain #2; however, this was done on a computer, so there were no actual curtains involved. Just like with the card study, the researchers also measured the subjects’ subtle physiological responses. Remarkably, they found that the subjects’ bodies were able to predict the correct curtain 2-3 seconds before the computer had even decided which curtain to use.


The subjects did not always follow through with what their slightly sweaty palms were telling them to do, but the slightly sweaty palms were almost always right – in fact, they even had the ability to predict the future (by about 2-3 seconds). For gamblers who would like to have the ability to predict what’s behind a certain card, this study suggests that they should work on heightening their sense of intuition to such a degree that they can recognize when the sweat glands on their palms have opened up.

Note: This post was based on an excerpt from the New York Times Bestselling book, Radical Remission: Surviving Cancer Against All Odds.

--

Dr. Kelly Turner is the New York Times bestselling author of “Radical Remission,” as well as a researcher and lecturer in the field of IntegrativeOncology. Her specialized research focus is on radical remission of cancer, which is when someone heals from cancer against all odds. Dr. Turner holds a B.A. from Harvard University and a Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley.

 

[So_what_MD]

Exactly! If it were true, all of the professional psychics would clean out the casinos on a daily basis. Hell, they can even win lotteries.

If we can nurture our intuitions we should be dumping the tray each time? Not really! When we win our brain waves remain normal, perfect condition for intuitions. Unfortunately when we get stoke a few hands, our frontal cortex is hardwired to react violently. This reaction prohibits the existence of intuition. We are back to square one. I am suggesting card counting could be used to neutralize this violent frontal cortex reaction. As long as we can minimize the psychological effect of risk taking in negative situations, intuition can flourish again. card counting gives you 1-2% edge, intuition gives you another 2-5%, HAPPY HAPPY.

Heisenberg' Uncertainty Principle is arguably one of the most famous foundations of quantum physics. However, he did not and could not supply any evidence for the theory, well, hypothesis, which was largely based on INTUITION. It wasn't proved scientifically until 80 years later. I hope I can prove this sooner.

 

[Taff]

Ive had six months away from tables and forums.....this place has got interesting again.!!

 

[DSchles]

If we can nurture our intuitions we should be dumping the tray each time? Not really! When we win our brain waves remain normal, perfect condition for intuitions. Unfortunately when we get stoke a few hands, our frontal cortex is hardwired to react violently. This reaction prohibits the existence of intuition. We are back to square one. I am suggesting card counting could be used to neutralize this violent frontal cortex reaction. As long as we can minimize the psychological effect of risk taking in negative situations, intuition can flourish again. card counting gives you 1-2% edge, intuition gives you another 2-5%, HAPPY HAPPY.

Heisenberg' Uncertainty Principle is arguably one of the most famous foundations of quantum physics. However, he did not and could not supply any evidence for the theory, well, hypothesis, which was largely based on INTUITION. It wasn't proved scientifically until 80 years later. I hope I can prove this sooner.

Admit it: you're an intelligent person, you know that all of this is utter horseshit, and you've just dropped by to yank everyone's chain. You're talking about a shoe of cards that appear randomly, and you're Carnac! Kinda sad, don't you think? In any event, my last post on the topic. It matters not a whit what you or I think; you're going to continue to believe in black magic anyway, so why should I waste my time?

Don

 

[So_what_MD]

Ive had six months away from tables and forums.....this place has got interesting again.!!

Taff:
I appreciate the polite comments. Interesting indeed. I am trying to make some sense out of some scientific measurements, certainly not some voodoo gut feeling of ONE shoe. Researchers develop novel functional MRI paradigms and employs them to study cingulated Cortex functions. Heart beats, SUDORIPAROUS glands and brain waves are all measured. The result is overwhelming that part of our brain is helping us to make decisions that can NOT be explained by science ... yet. But the measurement/data are there.

 

[LC Larry]

The man is crediting INTUITION, which transcends statistical-logic; and I believe has been proven to have merit.

Grif, either you're smoking too much weed or you've been talking to Morgenscammer too much.

 

[xengrifter]

Grif, you're smoking too much weed

I'm just following my doctor's recommendations...
...But cannabis IS proven to increase intuition, right?

 

[Taff]

Taff:
I appreciate the polite comments. Interesting indeed. I am trying to make some sense out of some scientific measurements, certainly not some voodoo gut feeling of ONE shoe. Researchers develop novel functional MRI paradigms and employs them to study cingulated Cortex functions. Heart beats, SUDORIPAROUS glands and brain waves are all measured. The result is overwhelming that part of our brain is helping us to make decisions that can NOT be explained by science ... yet. But the measurement/data are there.

Crack on fella.x

 

[Michael Johnson]

I'm relatively new to blackjack. I've only played in a casino once and it was a video blackjack (not a live dealer) and I'm wanting to slowly get into it more for recreation. I'm learning basic strategy right now but am not yet ready for counting - I'll wait until I get BS down first. I've played online casinos with free or 'play' money and I've played some simulations.

I'm terrible in that I always want more than I have. When I'm up, I want $5 more, but then I start on a losing streak. I could walk away, but I want to get it up to where it was before first. Or I want to break even. I usually end up with $0.

What strategies are common for knowing what your breaking point, or walk away point is? Assuming a $5 minimum at the table, and $50 or $100 in your pocket. Flat betting all the way. Do you quit at an upper limit? Or is there an ever increasing lower limit that screams at you to leave the table?

This is an excellent question.
Let's say I'm on a real hot streak. My buy-in was $300., and I am now up to $1,300. I want to quit way ahead, but I don't want to prematurely stop a streak... So, here's what I do... if I lose three hands in a row, I quit. (Assuming $25. hands, I will now be up $1,225 - $300. buy-in = $925.)
I assume my luck has changed with three losses in a row. Go to the cashiers cage and cash in. Make your win "real money." Besides, you can always go back later on.
Don't say to yourself "OK, I'll quit when I reach X." I've lost tons of money having a fixed "win point."