Aslan: The reason is that KO uses a fixed key count for simplicity. It is the AVERAGE count at where the player will always have an advantage through a 6D shoe. I think the 6D shoe is the best example to use. Only right at 3 decks dealt is the key count completely accurate. Otherwise, the authors have just chosen a nice conservative figure where you will have the advantage in the majority of the cases, especially early in the shoe, when you see an increase of 16 in the IRC.
What you want is about a +1 true count for the key count, which gives you an advantage worth betting more on. Again, as stated on the other thread on this subject, that is why I start the IRC at zero. Then at +9, there is an excess of +5 (RC should only increase +4 per deck) after one deck dealt which, when divided by 5 decks left = +1 true count. So in reality, the key count floats and is lower early on in the shoe. Again, the authors just fixed the key count for simplicity, while not sacrificing a lot of EV.
Conversely, after 4 decks dealt (as an example & still w/6D), a key count of +16 is not accurate. You'd be playing the equivalent of a DD game straight off the top. So KO is overstating your advantage late in the shoe on marginal + counts.
Worth noting: the pivot point of +24 (with IRC of 0) does not change or overstate your advantage at any point that I am aware of, even deep in the deck. Once I get that one 100% figured out, I may try to explain it too. However, the mathematics of the spreadsheet and the KO book seem to support that.
(i don't pretend to have all the answers):grin: