Longest streak, afraid it will end...

[KewlJ]

Anybody can handle a winning streak; the real test will be how the original poster handles when this streak ends, or how he handles the inevitable down periods.

The mechanics of card counting are easy. Read a book (or online forum), practice a bit, make sure you are properly bankrolled...and play. I think a monkey can be taught the mechanics of card counting. But, success or failure as a card counter is really about handling emotions. And it is easy to handle emotions when you are winning. The real test comes when you are losing. And I mean really losing. Hundred of hours or tens of thousands of rounds played. That is when you find out if you have what it takes.

There are two kinds of long losing periods. One is an extended losing period, weeks/months, hundreds of hours, usually involving a significant period of losing and usually a slow rebound. At the end of hundreds of hours (or 10's of thousands of rounds) you are basically right where you started. The second isn't so much losing as just a very long stagnant period. Again, you play hundreds of hours and you are basically exactly where you started. You just feel like you are stuck in the mud, spinning your wheels and not going anywhere. Once you learn to handle these two scenarios, then you are really on your way.

And it is not easy. Despite reading about these periods, you aren't prepared them. It's something you have to go through. It plays with your mind. You question everything you know. And then you come out the other side and all is well again. After a few times of going through this, you think nothing of it.

My current blackjack partner, who is also my brother, just ended his 3rd year of play. First year almost doesn't count because he was playing low limit levels for experience (and a little money). Last year, his first real year, playing green to black stakes, he made 60k over the first 6 months, which was more than double expectation (EV). The last half of the year, he was basically even....I think he made a thousand bucks or something like that. This year (2017), he sort of went along just about expectation, or slightly ahead all year. No major swings either way. Just a nice steady climb. That is pretty easy to handle. The only little bit of adversity he has experienced was that second half of last year (2016), when he basically was even for 6 months, but coming on the heals of a super strong (above expectation) first half of year, that too is pretty easy to take.

While I am not wishing one of these negative 6 month swings on him, I do want to see how he handles it (and try to help in through it). He, just like any other card counter, has to get through a couple of these before he is really on his way.

 

[JJP]

Are you a card counter?

Yes

I am relatively new to counting cards. Not advanced level at this point, but working hard at it and hope to at some point.

 

[BoSox]

Not advanced level at this point, but working hard at it and hope to at some point.

JJP, could you elaborate a little further on your interpretation of what exactly an advanced level entails? Thank you.

 

[BoSox]

KJ, first I like to say that I hope you and your family had a nice Christmas day.

The mechanics of card counting are easy. Read a book (or online forum), practice a bit, make sure you are properly bankrolled...and play. I think a monkey can be taught the mechanics of card counting. But, success or failure as a card counter is really about handling emotions.

Leaving out the monkey part of the quote, I wholeheartedly agree success or failure as a card counter is really about handling emotions. Although all my opinions are coming from a long term part timer, if there is such a category.

And it is easy to handle emotions when you are winning. The real test comes when you are losing.

On the winning side, when I started out playing many years ago the winning was nice, appreciated, goals were being set and met. I really enjoyed playing, but still had trouble finding time to play. Lucky for me the losing streaks back then were not bad and did not hurt too much. Fast forward two decades, the game was no longer fun but part time work where winning did very little emotionally for me. The winning trips only showed some justification for playing a game that I now found boring, and also despised, because I retired from my regular job, but not exactly like a normal retired person, as I still was playing BJ. I played and still play because I like to compete. On the losing side over the last 15 years I have experienced plenty of good sized negative swings, I understood the math and the reasons why they happen, and always fought through them, but not without first beating myself up, even though I knew that it did not make any sense.

However I knew the real reasons why, I never considered myself a gambler. In all the years playing, I was always properly funded at whatever level I was playing at the time, and always knew I would quit the game if I was not winning long term, but I always felt I was living two lives, and only wanted to live one, the non gaming one. Here is this extremely conservative person living a very simple middle class life, then a few times a month turns into something completely unfathomable "winning/losing a lot of money" to the other self, actually a real contradiction. Anyone else have a problem dealing with this?

 

[Ryemo]

The act of leading two different lives is such a weird dynamic that I’m still getting used to. When I’m on the road, I’m driving far and wide just to find a casino that will let me play. My sleep schedule is really odd, I’m playing till the wee hours in the morning, and I sometimes end up sleeping in my car if getting a room isn’t convenient. I dress differently when I’m at the casino to better align with my act and I do whatever I can to emulate your everyday degenerate gambler. Meanwhile, I’m winning and losing thousands of dollars and throw money around as if it has little value to me.

On the flip side, when I get home, life is totally different. We live a normal middle class life style in a nice small suburb outside of a bigger city. My wife and two kids are my main focus at home. When I’m home, I have a very “normal” sleep schedule and I take my oldest son back and forth to school in the mornings. In the casino, I’m sure most of the patrons and/or casino staff think I’m wreckless, considering the amounts of money being exchanged at that the tables. But the reality is that I’m a very frugal person and do my best to cut out any unnecessary financial waste.

So yes, it is quite the adjustment to make. On the road, I am a traveling AP/road warrior. At home, I’m a family man.

 

[JJP]

JJP, could you elaborate a little further on your interpretation of what exactly an advanced level entails? Thank you.

I'm not a professional blackjack player, and I'm aware my game still needs some work. I'm at a stage where I'm looking to improve and get playing experience. I have extensive gambling experience so I know not to get big headed after a good session, and to slowly expand bigger bets.

 

[BoSox]

I'm not a professional blackjack player, and I'm aware my game still needs some work. I'm at a stage where I'm looking to improve and get playing experience. I have extensive gambling experience so I know not to get big headed after a good session, and to slowly expand bigger bets.

JJP, In Ryemo's above post he made a very important point that I hope you remember he said the following:
"My sleep schedule is really odd, I’m playing till the wee hours in the morning"

Anyone who takes the game of blackjack serious plays the game whenever the table conditions are ideal, which often includes some very weird hours, and is necessary. How do you know what is the best times to play, and finding the best table conditions, mainly you scout for yourself, and you check everything that is important in pits you intend to play. When you become more knowledgeable you will know what you will be looking for. I am not currently going to say what they are because I hope you think about it for a while, but I will give a hint anything to increase your chances.

Ps : Learn to practice at home, as it will not cost you money, instead of learning in a casino. If you must learn in a casino bet small, for the education.

 

[JJP]

JJP, In Ryemo's above post he made a very important point that I hope you remember he said the following:
"My sleep schedule is really odd, I’m playing till the wee hours in the morning"

Anyone who takes the game of blackjack serious plays the game whenever the table conditions are ideal, which often includes some very weird hours, and is necessary. How do you know what is the best times to play, and finding the best table conditions, mainly you scout for yourself, and you check everything that is important in pits you intend to play. When you become more knowledgeable you will know what you will be looking for. I am not currently going to say what they are because I hope you think about it for a while, but I will give a hint anything to increase your chances.

Ps : Learn to practice at home, as it will not cost you money, instead of learning in a casino. If you must learn in a casino bet small, for the education.

My view of blackjack is as a potential extra source of income. I spend a lot of time handicapping and betting sports. It is a grind and the margins aren't nearly what the public believes they are (NOBODY hits 60% in the long run in NFL or NBA). I know the top blackjack pros have about a 1.5 to 2% edge over the house, but they can churn that money far faster than a sports bettor can. I have no problem with putting in the hours practicing at home, although I realize to truly develop, there has to be an occasional trip to the casino with real money. Casino Verite is great for practice, but there are distractions that can't be in computer simulations. When betting sports or racing, it's easy to get into a rut and mostly flat bet. But blackjack does hammer home the point of betting more when one is advantaged.

I'm still in the learning process. I've learned I play much better at a table with no more than two other players; I've learned it's pretty easy to leave a table in mid shoe with negative counts. I also find I get slightly anxious before I go play. Not panicky; just a little nervous. After a couple minutes, it goes away. I guess it goes back to a time when I drove two hours to play, only to get wiped out in about 15 minutes. And one underrated distraction I rarely hear mentioned? Cigarette smoke. Let's hope someday they all are smoke free.