Looking for Short-Term Advice

[ThunderWalk]

I'm looking for any advantage, if there is one. I'm inserting myself into hostile territory for the weekend sometime soon. (Feels like I'm going on a mission of some sort.) I'll probably play 8-decks $10 minimum out on the main floor, and maybe some 6-deck $50 minimum in the back room. I might slide over to a Roulette table to brake the monotony... a friend wants to try Pai Gow, but I'll probably just observe. This time, against my better judgment, I'll let them issue me a comp card. I'm practicing KO, however, I know it will be a while before I'll be able to employ it in an honest-to-gosh casino. I have Basic Strategy down pat, I know my splits and double-downs well enough. I'm looking for an edge, and I'm seeking (serious) advice. I can hear the remarks now... "Stay home," or "Don't go in until you have counting down pat." Let's assume we're all grown-ups and that I'm not just a fool. I plan on playing conservatively, and if I'm in the back room, (where I'll be playing with someone else's money) it will be very conservatively. Are there any words from the wise and experienced who have traveled this same road before me?

 

[QFIT]

I'm looking for any advantage, if there is one. I'm inserting myself into hostile territory for the weekend sometime soon. (Feels like I'm going on a mission of some sort.) I'll probably play 8-decks $10 minimum out on the main floor, and maybe some 6-deck $50 minimum in the back room. I might slide over to a Roulette table to brake the monotony... a friend wants to try Pai Gow, but I'll probably just observe. This time, against my better judgment, I'll let them issue me a comp card. I'm practicing KO, however, I know it will be a while before I'll be able to employ it in an honest-to-gosh casino. I have Basic Strategy down pat, I know my splits and double-downs well enough. I'm looking for an edge, and I'm seeking (serious) advice. I can hear the remarks now... "Stay home," or "Don't go in until you have counting down pat." Let's assume we're all grown-ups and that I'm not just a fool. I plan on playing conservatively, and if I'm in the back room, (where I'll be playing with someone else's money) it will be very conservatively. Are there any words from the wise and experienced who have traveled this same road before me?

It's difficult to answer a question when you have precluded the correct answers.

 

[jimpenn]

"other people's money"

Enjoy yourself. Just eliminate the 8D games and devote additional time for client's fronting stake. You can't lose and will be guaranteed some comp rooms if you happen to lose just the first guy's action. Good deal. Don't worry about misplaying some soft hands, some kind person will remind you.

 

[sagefr0g]

I'm looking for any advantage, if there is one. I'm inserting myself into hostile territory for the weekend sometime soon. (Feels like I'm going on a mission of some sort.) I'll probably play 8-decks $10 minimum out on the main floor, and maybe some 6-deck $50 minimum in the back room. I might slide over to a Roulette table to brake the monotony... a friend wants to try Pai Gow, but I'll probably just observe. This time, against my better judgment, I'll let them issue me a comp card. I'm practicing KO, however, I know it will be a while before I'll be able to employ it in an honest-to-gosh casino. I have Basic Strategy down pat, I know my splits and double-downs well enough. I'm looking for an edge, and I'm seeking (serious) advice. I can hear the remarks now... "Stay home," or "Don't go in until you have counting down pat." Let's assume we're all grown-ups and that I'm not just a fool. I plan on playing conservatively, and if I'm in the back room, (where I'll be playing with someone else's money) it will be very conservatively. Are there any words from the wise and experienced who have traveled this same road before me?

heh, heh those remarks you hear are some of the same voices i hear along with a host of others every time i sallie forth for another adventure in the pits.
having once been (in my own mind) the king of conservative i can't envision the scenerio that you lay out as even being in the conservative ballpark. reason being the table minimuns and games described.
i'd never play with anyone elses money under those circumstances especially if i had no experience.
you will probably do better at roulette
i envision two scenerio's for your scheme.
one you may get lucky and win a bundle but be falsely encouraged.
two you play an extended amount of time finding a rare advantage, betting up conservatively and either losing due to negative fluctuation or if you win on the conservative big bet it won't be enough to offset your losing waiting bets.
moral of the story can you find a nickle table with a decent six deck game inwhich you can play a conservative bet spread for about an hour with your own money? also if you lose your own money can you walk away with out chasing your loss's?

 

[Sonny]

Alright, I’ll tell you what you want to hear – use a conservative negative progression system. Actually, I’m being serious. Since you are using someone else’s money you want to maximize the probability of having a winning session (no matter how small) and you don’t care if you hit a huge loss. If you win, which is likely, then you and your investor both win money. If you lose then only the investor loses money. You don’t stand to lose a thing.

In fact, this scam has been used for decades. I remember reading a story about System Smitty. He would “coach” visiting high rollers by teaching them a progression system (and he knew them all!). The high roller would put up the money and Smitty would get a percentage of the profit. His pitch was “I don’t get paid unless you win!” Sure enough, the high rollers often won and Smitty would get paid. Occasionally, though, the high roller would suffer a huge loss, but that didn’t affect Smitty at all. Essentially he was getting a “free roll” at the expense of the high rollers. That is your best strategy in this case.

Other than that, there is no strategy that you can use in this situation. You can’t expect to walk into a casino without knowing what you’re doing and get an advantage. There are many beatable games in the casinos and many different ways to beat them, but they all require lots of study and practice to be effective. As Qfit said, the best strategies are the options that you’re ignoring.

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

Playing BJ with someone elses money is the best advantage one can have.
Be SURE to use your player card,play for the highest stakes you can and let it rip.Things like this don't come along very often in the real world so grab the opportunity and ride it as far as possible.

 

[ScottH]

Playing BJ with someone elses money is the best advantage one can have.
Be SURE to use your player card,play for the highest stakes you can and let it rip.Things like this on't come along very often ibn the real world so grab the opportunity and ride it as far as possible.

Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher. It's taking advantage of someone who doesn't know they are doing something stupid.

It's not fraud or anything, but by taking their money, going to the highest stakes possible and "letting it rip" is just taking advantage of their ignorance, just like Cipher does to all of his victims.

 

[shadroch]

Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher. It's taking advantage of someone who doesn't know they are doing something stupid.

It's not fraud or anything, but by taking their money, going to the highest stakes possible and "letting it rip" is just taking advantage of their ignorance, just like Cipher does to all of his victims.

Your point being?
There is actually a big difference.Cipher solicts investors,then rips them off,I doubt TW is solicting people to give him money. If he has a friend stupid enough to back his play,why not.I'd imagine its the same guy who knows how to count but prefers drinking and talking to actually counting.He most likely just wants some companionship at the table.

 

[mdlbj]

I'm looking for any advantage, if there is one. I'm inserting myself into hostile territory for the weekend sometime soon. (Feels like I'm going on a mission of some sort.) I'll probably play 8-decks $10 minimum out on the main floor, and maybe some 6-deck $50 minimum in the back room. I might slide over to a Roulette table to brake the monotony... a friend wants to try Pai Gow, but I'll probably just observe. This time, against my better judgment, I'll let them issue me a comp card. I'm practicing KO, however, I know it will be a while before I'll be able to employ it in an honest-to-gosh casino. I have Basic Strategy down pat, I know my splits and double-downs well enough. I'm looking for an edge, and I'm seeking (serious) advice. I can hear the remarks now... "Stay home," or "Don't go in until you have counting down pat." Let's assume we're all grown-ups and that I'm not just a fool. I plan on playing conservatively, and if I'm in the back room, (where I'll be playing with someone else's money) it will be very conservatively. Are there any words from the wise and experienced who have traveled this same road before me?

Well if your playng at a high limit table, and your being bankrolled. The first thing I would ask this person or persons is " Are you willing to loose this money?". Secondly, if you have the advantage, put the money out on the table. Forget about being conservative, if you can count and know bs as well as bet sizing, there is nothing to worry about.

 

[davidmcclung]

Here's a noncounting system that wins for me.

As a former counter, counting is way overblown anyway and dubious chances of long term success for most, not all, in my opinion and of course many will disagree with my conclusion. Anyway here is what has been winning for me for the last 10 sessions, with nine wins and one loss after several refinements. Start at $10 minimum tables and do the following: First and foremost is leave the table after four consecutive losses. Many tables you will be able to play for an hour or so with this four loss and out strategy. Second, play negative betting mini-session strategy meaning upping your bet by $5 on a loss in a $10 to $25 spread and on a win return to $10. If you lose at the $25 level, this means you have lost your four mini-sessions in a row and time to quit the session. As an example, if you have a net loss after four straight losses at the $10 level, your next mini-session will be played at the $15 level bet. If you have a net loss their also after the four consecutive losses at this $15 level, then play the next level at $20 level bets. If a net win at this $20 level, return to $10 level. If a net loss at this $20 level then finally go up to $25 level bets and then also quit that table after the four consecutive losses. I cant say for sure why it works so well but I have my own ideas(gets you off of cold tables and the negative progression lets you lose more hands than wins with net win), it has worked very well in many hours of play to date so give it a try if you want and would be interested in knowing if you likewise have my success. Bankroll needed is $500 per session. Your average session win should be $100 plus. I quit the session after the four losses with net win of over $100. Just remember to quit the table after four consecutive losses AND play the $10 to $25 level bets strategy upping by $5 on a minisession loss and returning to $10 on a minisession win.

 

[shadroch]

As a former counter, counting is way overblown anyway and dubious chances of long term success for most, not all, in my opinion and of course many will disagree with my conclusion. Anyway here is what has been winning for me for the last 10 sessions, with nine wins and one loss after several refinements. Start at $10 minimum tables and do the following: First and foremost is leave the table after four consecutive losses. Many tables you will be able to play for an hour or so with this four loss and out strategy. Second, play negative betting strategy meaning upping your bet by $5 on a loss in a $10 to $25 spread and on a win return to $10. If you lose at the $25 level, this means you have lost your four losses in a row and time to change tables or quit the session. I cant say for sure why it works so well but I have my own ideas(gets you off of cold tables and the negative progression lets you lose more hands than wins with net win), it has worked very well in many hours of play to date so give it a try if you want and would be interested in knowing if you likewise have my success. Bankroll needed is $500 per session. Your average session win should be $100 plus. I quit the session after the four losses with net win of over $100.

Your last ten sessions have produced nine wins and one loss. I can believe that.Your nine wins were for around $100 each,and your one loss I imagine was your session BR of $500.So you are exactly one losing session away from being in the red overall,and two straight losing sessions will put you so far behind that you'll then need six straight winning sessions just to be even.

 

[ihate17]

Learn basic strategy at least

Thunderwalk

You posted that you had basic down pat but in the rest of your thought you stated that you knew the doubles and splits well enough?? "Well enough" is not down pat and some of the costliest mistakes or most common mistakes non basic strategy players make are on their doubles and splits.
Take an extra 30 minutes and learn these. Since you are playing a shoe, I am guessing you have double after split and if so just concentrate your splits strategy for the DAS game. Also concentrate on the soft doubles. Soft double mistakes may not cost as much as some other mistakes but they are extremely common and you might find yourself making too many of them.

Without counting, tracking or some other AP method, all you can hope to do is not give the house any additional advantage over the house edge and hope you hit a period of positive variance.

ihate17

 

[shadroch]

Just bring a freakin BS card with you if you are not 100% certain of the plays.

 

[Sonny]

As a former counter, counting is way overblown…Anyway here is what has been winning for me for the last 10 sessions, with nine wins and one loss after several refinements. First and foremost is leave the table after four consecutive losses….Second, play negative betting mini-session strategy…Your average session win should be $100 plus.

Yup, you’re absolutely right - progression systems work and card counting doesn’t. If only more people used progression system then maybe the casinos would all be broke by now!

Besides, we’ve already discussed the limitations of your system:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4662&page=3

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

As a former counter, counting is way overblown anyway and dubious chances of long term success for most, not all, in my opinion and of course many will disagree with my conclusion. Anyway here is what has been winning for me for the last 10 sessions, with nine wins and one loss after several refinements. Start at $10 minimum tables and do the following: First and foremost is leave the table after four consecutive losses. Many tables you will be able to play for an hour or so with this four loss and out strategy. Second, play negative betting mini-session strategy meaning upping your bet by $5 on a loss in a $10 to $25 spread and on a win return to $10. If you lose at the $25 level, this means you have lost your four mini-sessions in a row and time to quit the session. As an example, if you have a net loss after four straight losses at the $10 level, your next mini-session will be played at the $15 level bet. If you have a net loss their also after the four consecutive losses at this $15 level, then play the next level at $20 level bets. If a net win at this $20 level, return to $10 level. If a net loss at this $20 level then finally go up to $25 level bets and then also quit that table after the four consecutive losses. I cant say for sure why it works so well but I have my own ideas(gets you off of cold tables and the negative progression lets you lose more hands than wins with net win), it has worked very well in many hours of play to date so give it a try if you want and would be interested in knowing if you likewise have my success. Bankroll needed is $500 per session. Your average session win should be $100 plus. I quit the session after the four losses with net win of over $100. Just remember to quit the table after four consecutive losses AND play the $10 to $25 level bets strategy upping by $5 on a minisession loss and returning to $10 on a minisession win.

McClung's posts belong in VOODOO BETTING. zg

 

[Bojack1]

Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher. It's taking advantage of someone who doesn't know they are doing something stupid.

It's not fraud or anything, but by taking their money, going to the highest stakes possible and "letting it rip" is just taking advantage of their ignorance, just like Cipher does to all of his victims.

Actually playing with an "investors" money is quite common among professional and even some not so professional blackjack players. There have been and are right now people playing this game as a high roller with no real money of their own. There's nothing wrong with that if the person playing is honest about their playing skill, and win expectations. Which really falls into a win win situation for the player. Even if the player isn't as good as he thinks he is but informs his money backers that there is no gaurantees in winning, he can't lose. Every loss can be explained as variance, and any win gets attributed to skill whether it is or not. As long as there are some decent wins now and then, and there usually is, most investors will keep funding the player. Meanwhile the player if setting up the deal right, will get all expenses payed for, a hefty per diem, and a significant cut of all profits. Not a bad deal if you find the right investors. So my only advice to Thunderwalk is be honest and try to get to a level of playing with an advantage as soon as you can. If you do you may never have to pull money out of your own pocket to play this game unless you want to. Or you can just let er rip, take your chances and see what happens, your call.

 

[ThunderWalk]

Thank you.

It's curious how some people try to be helpful while others seem to lie in wait, picking apart your words and trying to find fault with something... anything... you might say.

It was a simple request. I'm taking a short trip and I'm looking for advice on how to survive while I'm schooling myself in the art of counting. It's not a lifestyle change, and I'm not switching religions, ethnicity, or sexual orientation. I'm not looking to be called names, made fun of, or to have my sanity questioned. I see lots of people with experience here, and I value the knowledge and support offered by this forum. I'm not here for a battle of wits, to exchange insults, or to engage in one-upmanship. I'm not looking for any preconceived answers. I'm not ignoring any options - I'm holding off until I'm ready. I'm just looking for support because I've been invited on a trip to a casino, and yes, a friend and his wife would just like some company while they chat and drink at the tables. I'm not stealing anyone's money. My friend isn't stupid; his business has experienced a good year, and he's celebrating. It's nice for us that he's willing to share his good fortune.

One more thing, I know doubles and splits as well as I know Basic Strategy, which is "well enough." I merely chose different words because I didn't want to repeat myself.

Thanks to those who actually supplied advice without judgment. I don't believe all opinions are Voodoo, just because they are different.

 

[Sonny]

We almost forgot!

We almost forgot about back-betting! That will give you an advantage without counting (if they allow it), but you will need to learn a new BS for splitting hands. Here's a link to an older discussion:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4429

I believe we posted the correct BS somewhere but I can't seem to find it...

-Sonny-

 

[ScottH]

Actually playing with an "investors" money is quite common among professional and even some not so professional blackjack players. There have been and are right now people playing this game as a high roller with no real money of their own. There's nothing wrong with that if the person playing is honest about their playing skill, and win expectations. Which really falls into a win win situation for the player. Even if the player isn't as good as he thinks he is but informs his money backers that there is no gaurantees in winning, he can't lose. Every loss can be explained as variance, and any win gets attributed to skill whether it is or not. As long as there are some decent wins now and then, and there usually is, most investors will keep funding the player. Meanwhile the player if setting up the deal right, will get all expenses payed for, a hefty per diem, and a significant cut of all profits. Not a bad deal if you find the right investors. So my only advice to Thunderwalk is be honest and try to get to a level of playing with an advantage as soon as you can. If you do you may never have to pull money out of your own pocket to play this game unless you want to. Or you can just let er rip, take your chances and see what happens, your call.

I understand that people often invest in people's play, but it sounded like he wasn't an advantage player and was just going to gamble and hope for the best.

Investing in an AP is another story.

 

[ScottH]

It's curious how some people try to be helpful while others seem to lie in wait, picking apart your words and trying to find fault with something... anything... you might say.

More of my posts are disagreeing with the poster. The reason is because if you disagree you think they are mistaken and you attempt to try show them why.

On the other hand if you post something that is correct, it's often just a waste of a post to say, "You're right, good job man!"