Looking for Short-Term Advice

[ThunderWalk]

Gotcha.

More of my posts are disagreeing with the poster. The reason is because if you disagree you think they are mistaken and you attempt to try show them why.

On the other hand if you post something that is correct, it's often just a waste of a post to say, "You're right, good job man!"

I understand and agree. Not necessarily in your case, but sometimes tone has something to do with it. I value this forum and think it provides a great service. I just feel that information can be passed along without implying someone is stupid. I'm here to learn, not to dodge spitballs.

 

[QFIT]

It's curious how some people try to be helpful while others seem to lie in wait, picking apart your words and trying to find fault with something... anything... you might say.

This is important. If you do not understand this; you will lose.

People that give what you seem is easy helpful advice often are just gamblers, and superstitious people. People that you think are "lying in wait to pick you apart...." are trying to help you.

You seem to think that if someone tells you that you will win they are helpful. and if they warn you that you will lose they are against you. Think about that.

Obviously most people lose. This is necessary. Otherwise there would be no casinos. Winning must be difficult.

Yes you can obtain an advantage over the casinos. But anyone that tells you it is easy is a con man.

 

[EasyRhino]

If you're going to do any sort of counting attempt, don't sign up for a comp card first (you want to find out if you can play for a while without getting booted)

If you're flat betting or progressioning, then knock yourself out.

 

[shadroch]

Yes you can obtain an advantage over the casinos. But anyone that tells you it is easy is a con man.[/QUOTE]


So,if I were to say you can gain a very nice edge over the casinos by playing only when you have match play coupon to double your winnings,and provided a source for just such a play,I'd be a con man?

 

[ThunderWalk]

Allow me to clarify.

This is important. If you do not understand this; you will lose. People that give what you seem is easy helpful advice often are just gamblers, and superstitious people. People that you think are "lying in wait to pick you apart...." are trying to help you. You seem to think that if someone tells you that you will win they are helpful. and if they warn you that you will lose they are against you. Think about that. Obviously most people lose. This is necessary. Otherwise there would be no casinos. Winning must be difficult. Yes you can obtain an advantage over the casinos. But anyone that tells you it is easy is a con man.

I have no issue with anyone trying to be helpful or offering advice, that was the purpose of the posting -- I was asking for feedback. The point I was trying to make in regard to "lying in wait" was that if you're not completely careful of how you express yourself, there is always some "cranky" person who will pick apart your position merely because of a word or phrase you selected, rather than addressing the content of the issue itself.

For example: When I said "I know my splits and double-downs well enough" one person replied "Well enough" is not down pat..." When I said a friend was going to stake me in the back room, someone said, "Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher?" When one person offered advice, they were deemed to be guilty of that "Voodoo" thing. Next I expect to be criticized for spelling or grammatical errors.

I don't think anyone objects to constructive criticism, especially when they ask a question or request a response when posing some situation. Much of what others have said is useful to me and appropriate. But, sometimes the replies are just silly, and don't address the issue at all.

 

[QFIT]

So,if I were to say you can gain a very nice edge over the casinos by playing only when you have match play coupon to double your winnings,and provided a source for just such a play,I'd be a con man?[/QUOTE]

Well, you can make money by looking for coins on the floor. I'm talking about a sustained advantage.

 

[QFIT]

I have no issue with anyone trying to be helpful or offering advice, that was the purpose of the posting -- I was asking for feedback. The point I was trying to make in regard to "lying in wait" was that if you're not completely careful of how you express yourself, there is always some "cranky" person who will pick apart your position merely because of a word or phrase you selected, rather than addressing the content of the issue itself.

For example: When I said "I know my splits and double-downs well enough" one person replied "Well enough" is not down pat..." When I said a friend was going to stake me in the back room, someone said, "Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher?" When one person offered advice, they were deemed to be guilty of that "Voodoo" thing. Next I expect to be criticized for spelling or grammatical errors.

I don't think anyone objects to constructive criticism, especially when they ask a question or request a response when posing some situation. Much of what others have said is useful to me and appropriate. But, sometimes the replies are just silly, and don't address the issue at all.

Hey you've had it easy I've been called a liar, fraud, con man, thief and casino spy. And BJ21 not only allows such posts; but bars me from defending myself.

 

[ihate17]

Good advice, not taken

I have no issue with anyone trying to be helpful or offering advice, that was the purpose of the posting -- I was asking for feedback. The point I was trying to make in regard to "lying in wait" was that if you're not completely careful of how you express yourself, there is always some "cranky" person who will pick apart your position merely because of a word or phrase you selected, rather than addressing the content of the issue itself.

For example: When I said "I know my splits and double-downs well enough" one person replied "Well enough" is not down pat..." When I said a friend was going to stake me in the back room, someone said, "Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher?" When one person offered advice, they were deemed to be guilty of that "Voodoo" thing. Next I expect to be criticized for spelling or grammatical errors.

I don't think anyone objects to constructive criticism, especially when they ask a question or request a response when posing some situation. Much of what others have said is useful to me and appropriate. But, sometimes the replies are just silly, and don't address the issue at all.

When I advised you that "well enough" is not good enough, if you had meant you know it perfectly, then I apoligize but if you mean you know it 95%, then I suggest you take my post to heart.
I put in near 500 hours of blackjack last year, have no idea how many different players I shared tables with in over 30 different casinos but honestly I witnessed less than 10 players who played perfect basic strategy but hundreds who had it almost. Mistakes when you put out at least twice the amount of money can be very harmful.

ihate17

 

[ScottH]

I have no issue with anyone trying to be helpful or offering advice, that was the purpose of the posting -- I was asking for feedback. The point I was trying to make in regard to "lying in wait" was that if you're not completely careful of how you express yourself, there is always some "cranky" person who will pick apart your position merely because of a word or phrase you selected, rather than addressing the content of the issue itself.

For example: When I said "I know my splits and double-downs well enough" one person replied "Well enough" is not down pat..." When I said a friend was going to stake me in the back room, someone said, "Isn't playing blackjack with someone else's money just like being Cipher?" When one person offered advice, they were deemed to be guilty of that "Voodoo" thing. Next I expect to be criticized for spelling or grammatical errors.

I don't think anyone objects to constructive criticism, especially when they ask a question or request a response when posing some situation. Much of what others have said is useful to me and appropriate. But, sometimes the replies are just silly, and don't address the issue at all.

My post was not even in response to yours, it was in response to Shadroch who advised you to be reckless with your friends money because you personally have nothing to lose. I have nothing against someone getting staked, but I don't think they should be reckless and "go to the highest stakes possible and let it rip" as Shadroch put it. I think you should play with their money as if it were your own, otherwise you'd be ripping them off in a way, or taking advantage of them. That's what I was getting at.

 

[bahoozle]

Short-term advice

Ace-Five tracking. It's easy, will give you the smallest of advantages with proper betting and can certainly extend your time to rack up comps.

 

[ThunderWalk]

Ace-Five tracking. It's easy, will give you the smallest of advantages with proper betting and can certainly extend your time to rack up comps.

Bingo! That looks like it's worth exploring. I found it at The Wizard.

Thanks for the valuable advice.

 

[halcyon1234]

Yes you can obtain an advantage over the casinos. But anyone that tells you it is easy is a con man.

So,if I were to say you can gain a very nice edge over the casinos by playing only when you have match play coupon to double your winnings,and provided a source for just such a play,I'd be a con man?[/QUOTE]

Patch-play advantage is hardly "easy". You still have to seek them out (which you would provide). I would sitll have to print them all out or mail away for them. I'd also have to arrange to go to that specific casino. Once there, I'd still have to know the proper strategy of when to use the coupons, and the proper betting strategy to getting the most value out of them.

And even then, you only guarentee to double your winnings-- an easy claim, since you're effectively doubling your stakes on all winning hands (more or less). But you aren't guarenteeing that I WILL win at all. Or that I'll double my bankroll. Or EASY make THOUSANDS a MONTH!!!1!

 

[shadroch]

So,if I were to say you can gain a very nice edge over the casinos by playing only when you have match play coupon to double your winnings,and provided a source for just such a play,I'd be a con man?

Patch-play advantage is hardly "easy". You still have to seek them out (which you would provide). I would sitll have to print them all out or mail away for them. I'd also have to arrange to go to that specific casino. Once there, I'd still have to know the proper strategy of when to use the coupons, and the proper betting strategy to getting the most value out of them.

And even then, you only guarentee to double your winnings-- an easy claim, since you're effectively doubling your stakes on all winning hands (more or less). But you aren't guarenteeing that I WILL win at all. Or that I'll double my bankroll. Or EASY make THOUSANDS a MONTH!!!1![/QUOTE]


I leave Feb 25th for Vegas. At a cost of $87,I have assembled just shy of $1,000 of MP coupons.I have perhaps three hours total invested in posting and swapping coupons I want for coupons I won't use.
I expect a return on these to be roughly half the face value,so $500 is what I'm shooting at.The unknown is really how much time it will take to play thru the coupons and if I have the discipline to leave a casino after one or two hands.
If it is successful,it could be done on a daily basis.Only two coupons are limited to one a year. Several are one a day,most seem to have no restrictions.
I'll keep a log and post it on my return.I'm quite curious to see how it turns out myself.

 

[ScottH]

Bingo! That looks like it's worth exploring. I found it at The Wizard.

Thanks for the valuable advice.

Be aware that weak counting systems with small edges are often not worth playing. I'll try to explain why. The edge you get from systems like these are very small, and the variance is very high. The high variance is often not worth the EV.

It should only take you a couple weeks to learn KO, I say go that route. You may find that the Ace/Five count is super easy, but your variance is going to be too high to justify using the count.

Not trying to be a downer again, but this is good advice. If I were you I would not play that count.

 

[EasyRhino]

At a cost of $87,I have assembled just shy of $1,000 of MP coupons.

You are my hero, please point me in the right direction for this?

 

[shadroch]

two on-line memberships Las Vegas Advisor-$74cost gets$460 in matchplay or free chips
Four American Casino guides $22,but I sold some coupons for $9 gets almost $300 in matchplay or free chips
Then I've been obtaining El Cortez fun book coupons- if you email them they send two to every out of state address you give them,monthly.
I've gotten a few friends who stayed at Harrahs to stop by Casino Royale and sign up for their card- you get the best funbook in Vegas,3-1 on a suited Bj,2-1 on a regular.
Stratosphere Funbook has a BJ pays double coupon,have three of these and will get two more while out there,perhaps more.The coupon pays $74 on a $25 Bj,not just 2-1 but double payout.btw- Many people get this funbook for other uses and you can find them all around the slot areas. Found four BJ coupons last trip this way.THey only allow one per day,but you can go to other areas of the casino or other shifts and use multiples.
Sahara has a pay $40,get $50 coupon-I've four of these
I have the names of a bunch of places that carry WIN cards-pay 10,get $15 plus a dealer tip coupon,but I'm not sure how many I'll hit.
And I'm actively trading coupons on several websites,should have more by the time I go.
I'm out there a week,I plan on devoting two full days to coupon runs.+
I'm still working on the best way to work the routes out.They run from The Hacienda in Boulder to Red Rock to Speedway,with South Point and Silverton tossed in.

 

[halcyon1234]

two on-line memberships Las Vegas Advisor-$74cost gets$460 in matchplay or free chips
Four American Casino guides $22,but I sold some coupons for $9 gets almost $300 in matchplay or free chips
Then I've been obtaining El Cortez fun book coupons- if you email them they send two to every out of state address you give them,monthly.
I've gotten a few friends who stayed at Harrahs to stop by Casino Royale and sign up for their card- you get the best funbook in Vegas,3-1 on a suited Bj,2-1 on a regular.
Stratosphere Funbook has a BJ pays double coupon,have three of these and will get two more while out there,perhaps more.The coupon pays $74 on a $25 Bj,not just 2-1 but double payout.btw- Many people get this funbook for other uses and you can find them all around the slot areas. Found four BJ coupons last trip this way.THey only allow one per day,but you can go to other areas of the casino or other shifts and use multiples.
Sahara has a pay $40,get $50 coupon-I've four of these
I have the names of a bunch of places that carry WIN cards-pay 10,get $15 plus a dealer tip coupon,but I'm not sure how many I'll hit.
And I'm actively trading coupons on several websites,should have more by the time I go.
I'm out there a week,I plan on devoting two full days to coupon runs.+
I'm still working on the best way to work the routes out.They run from The Hacienda in Boulder to Red Rock to Speedway,with South Point and Silverton tossed in.

And this is why I maintain my positino that your match-play thing doesn't constitute a scheme:

1) Holy crap that was a lot of work. It may have only taken you 3 hours, but from my position-- I wouldn't even know where to begin!
2) You revealed exactly how you did it, in a provable, repeatable, falsifyable way.
3) You're giving it away for free.

See the difference? =)

 

[shadroch]

Xtreme couponopoly

1) wasn't much work at all,ordering on-line,trading on-line
2) you are my test audience. :whip:
3)for now:devil:

I can't imagine many vacationers would be interested in doing this,but someone who lives there just might. Its not a get rich quick scheme,but it might be a way of avoiding taking the first job that comes along sort of thing.

 

[ThunderWalk]

Re: Ace-Five Tracking.

Be aware that weak counting systems with small edges are often not worth playing. I'll try to explain why. The edge you get from systems like these are very small, and the variance is very high. The high variance is often not worth the EV. It should only take you a couple weeks to learn KO, I say go that route. You may find that the Ace/Five count is super easy, but your variance is going to be too high to justify using the count. Not trying to be a downer again, but this is good advice. If I were you I would not play that count.

Not at all... I appreciate your input. In thinking about Ace-Five Tracking, I was just about to post a question asking how large of a bankroll I'd need to start. It's just a shot in the dark, but I'm thinking it's larger than I'd care to risk the first time out. I intend to explore it at the kitchen table a bunch of times before sticking my neck out trying it at the casino.

I'm working on KO, but my next trip in harm's way is coming up sooner than I'll be ready to use it to my advantage -- still, I know I'll get there, eventually. You have to realize that I'm a beginner's beginner, and that I'm just looking for an edge until I have a better understanding and I can begin to implement what I've learned.

 

[ScottH]

Not at all... I appreciate your input. In thinking about Ace-Five Tracking, I was just about to post a question asking how large of a bankroll I'd need to start. It's just a shot in the dark, but I'm thinking it's larger than I'd care to risk the first time out. I intend to explore it at the kitchen table a bunch of times before sticking my neck out trying it at the casino.

I'm working on KO, but my next trip in harm's way is coming up sooner than I'll be ready to use it to my advantage -- still, I know I'll get there, eventually. You have to realize that I'm a beginner's beginner, and that I'm just looking for an edge until I have a better understanding and I can begin to implement what I've learned.

Well in my opinion if you're looking to learn a way to get an advantage faster than it takes to learn KO, you're better off not doing it all. Just keep working on KO and play BS for as low stakes as you can find in the meantime. I say that because, even though BS is -EV, and the ace five tracking is +EV, like you already thought of, you would need a big bankroll because the ace five tracking method will have a much higher variance than just playing BS. If you don't already have a good bankroll built up, variance will be a killer, so you really wouldn't want to mess around with a small EV, high variance counting system, in my opinion.

Good luck!