Losing in positive counts is becoming all too familiar

[aslan]

It seems I keep getting repeats of the same all too familiar losing in positive counts. In general, I find myself holding my own in neutral and negative counts, but when the count goes positive and I begin ramping up my bets, all hell breaks loose. Like today, I had a super positive count (KO +17). I lost repeatedly and the only thing that saved part of my session BR was a last round stand of two hands at $200 each which resulted in an $800 win due to doubling down and splitting. Were it not for this single round, I would have been out $3,000. Many of the losses during the positive count of this shoe were due to max bets on multiple hands involving splits and double downs that lost, and busting on stiffs. However, on one round the fellow at first base got p*ssed off because I failed to hit a 16 and a 15 at KO +5, since I follow the preferred KO betting strategy which calls for standing on those hands at +4 and above. Had I hit I would have received a 5 and a 6 for two perfect hands and the dealer would have busted. But that's beside to point. I'm getting weary of finding myself losing during positive counts and losing a couple thousand here and a couple thouseand there while waiting for the long run to show it's pretty face. I think I'm going to give counting a rest for a while. It just seems way too iffy in actual practice. My wins are modest because they usually come from either the flatbetting portion of shoe or they come betting higher in positive counts but are lessened by a number of dealer wins. The losses on the other hand are usually from positive counts where the dealer wins most of the hands. So it seems I'm destined for many small gains, and a few large losses. Damn! It almost sounds like progression betting. I'd just like to once have one of those large wins from max bets in positive counts that I keep hearing about but never get to experience. It reminds me that it is a fact that the dealer should win more hands than the player even in positive counts, since the only way it favors the player is in splits, double downs, and blackjacks, as well as the dealer busting more when he has to hit. But it stands to reason that much of time the dealer and the other players are going to get those good cards that fall out in plus counts to the counters detriment. Everything has to line up for the counter to have a heyday. Anyway, I'm going to give it a rest for a while. BTW, I am writing this from my hotel room at the Borgata, AC.

 

[moo321]

Our job isn't to win, our job is to bet a ton when we have an edge, and not lose much when we don't. Things should go our way, but that's out of our control. We should always strive to criticize incorrect play in our mind, and reward proper , disciplined play. That, and we should ignore losses, and dwell on wins.

 

[Bojack1]

Aslan, what you are feeling is typical. In your case I think it is a good idea to step back and just breathe. Its up to you what you do with this frustration you feel. I sense you have doubts about the concept of counting and actually winning with it. Lets be honest here, you haven't given it your best shot yet. You have admitted to doing almost as many non AP things as you have AP. It seems you haven't completely separated yourself from the gamblers way of thinking either in the process. There is a reason that most counters don't turn a profitable game, and you have exhibited it in the past. When the game gets frustrating you revert to things you know are wrong and totally against what you are trying to become. Then you write about it to cleanse your soul, but I don't think you truly believe it.

Let me tell you what I have experienced with talking with new aspiring AP's. There are 3 kinds. Those who have been lucky and are way above E.V. and will swear counting is the best thing since sliced bread and that they will soon be rich. There are those who are unlucky and are below E.V. and claim that counting sucks and is all just worthless theory. And finally there are those that either way understand the game and realize and understand the fluctuations. The last being the huge minority. Who do you think stands the best chance of remaining an AP? Which one do you want to be? Basically, its only a game to most, keep that in mind. It sucks to lose money, but as long as you can afford to lose it, then its still just a game. Its beatable, odds are you wont beat it, nothing personal, but the odds are stacked in favor of those that fail vs. those that succeed. If for nothing else use beating the odds, along with making money as an impetus to stay the right course. Prove me wrong that you are not just like every other wannabee counter out there that hit some lows and couldn't hack it. Prove it to yourself.

By the way, take your breather, and then get the hell out of A.C and find some decent games to play, that might also help.

 

[toastblows]

1. Casinos have ZERO games offered that you are suppose to win

2. Counting is a tool, not a guarentee. Probability and Reality are different.

3. Have fun. If you arent, you might as well work a job

:cool2:

 

[sagefr0g]

hmm this story sounds very familiar

Aslan, you and i have traveled down a similar road it seems. although from the betting levels you describe i think you are playing at higher stakes than i ever attempted.
but i also reached a point where i decided to take a breather from play. and it was after a short series of some pretty bad beats after a long series of pretty darn nice results. i called it my blackjack sabbatical.
it was at least a time to not be losing money and where i could examine what the heck it was that i was doing anyway lol . i'm still on the sabbatical although i have played some.
much of what you say in your post rings true with me. and then what Bojack wrote also rings true.
so far where my sabbatical has led me is a result of not so much that i've learned anything new about advantage play but that i've had new insight about my self. i suppose some people are capable of playing blackjack like a computer. i for one would find it a miserly existance even if the money rolled in like it may for a computer. i simply can not divorce my self from the play.
lets say we could play at a ROR of 1%. it would always be in the back of my mind that it would be me that is going to be the one that the ruin falls upon.
but what riles me about that is that if that did happen it would happen with out my having interjected what ever it is that i could have done or should have done to try and stop it. i believe part of the conumdrun for me is that i can't honestly devote the required bankroll amount to the long term knowing that there is some percent risk of ruin that i need to live with. the weird thing is i can devote some amount to any given session. but i even then still have the personal need to be an active participant in the process rather than a passive participant that plays like a computer. so thats where i am for now with respect to playing blackjack a game i love.
good luck to you and may you make wise decisions what ever you do.

 

[Canceler]

aslan –

While you’re taking your breather, ask yourself what I think of as the “Big 3” questions:

1) Am I playing my hands correctly?
2) Am I counting correctly?
3) Am I betting correctly?

If you can’t honestly answer “yes” to all three, then you might have to fix something.

Your story does remind me of a recent experience I had. I drove for 1½ hours to get to the casino. I spent about half an hour walking around drinking coffee, while scoping out the games. In an hour and a half of playing I didn’t quite lose all the money I brought along, but I lost enough so that I wouldn’t be able to play properly. And I distinctly remember the count hitting +20 (KO) during that time. So I had to leave for the 1½ hour drive home much sooner than I had planned. That was definitely not what I had in mind for that trip!

 

[aslan]

Aslan, what you are feeling is typical. In your case I think it is a good idea to step back and just breathe. Its up to you what you do with this frustration you feel. I sense you have doubts about the concept of counting and actually winning with it. Lets be honest here, you haven't given it your best shot yet. You have admitted to doing almost as many non AP things as you have AP. It seems you haven't completely separated yourself from the gamblers way of thinking either in the process. There is a reason that most counters don't turn a profitable game, and you have exhibited it in the past. When the game gets frustrating you revert to things you know are wrong and totally against what you are trying to become. Then you write about it to cleanse your soul, but I don't think you truly believe it.

Let me tell you what I have experienced with talking with new aspiring AP's. There are 3 kinds. Those who have been lucky and are way above E.V. and will swear counting is the best thing since sliced bread and that they will soon be rich. There are those who are unlucky and are below E.V. and claim that counting sucks and is all just worthless theory. And finally there are those that either way understand the game and realize and understand the fluctuations. The last being the huge minority. Who do you think stands the best chance of remaining an AP? Which one do you want to be? Basically, its only a game to most, keep that in mind. It sucks to lose money, but as long as you can afford to lose it, then its still just a game. Its beatable, odds are you wont beat it, nothing personal, but the odds are stacked in favor of those that fail vs. those that succeed. If for nothing else use beating the odds, along with making money as an impetus to stay the right course. Prove me wrong that you are not just like every other wannabee counter out there that hit some lows and couldn't hack it. Prove it to yourself.

By the way, take your breather, and then get the hell out of A.C and find some decent games to play, that might also help.

Bojack,

Thanks for your reply.

Well, I have won more than I have lost over all. Yes, I am impatient to win sizable amounts and that is why I am playing $25 min now. I don't know how I stand with E.V. Playing $25 and higher demands a greater investment in terms of BR. This means some significant losses that my "bride" has trouble fathoming. I hate taking money from our joint funds, so I am actually thinking of working a job to replenish my BR. Working is not my favorite occupation. lol

I have not paid a lot of attention to E.V. If you play a $25 game 40 hours a month, how much should you expect to win? I am wondering if this figure, whatever it is, will be enough in my mind to justify the effort expended. I see counting as a business, but the work/reward ratio has to be right. Just winning in the long run is not enough for me. While playing is fun, it still has to be worth the effort and the risk.

 

[aslan]

1. Casinos have ZERO games offered that you are suppose to win

2. Counting is a tool, not a guarentee. Probability and Reality are different.

3. Have fun. If you arent, you might as well work a job

:cool2:

I have great fun playing. I don't enjoy losing. Probability and reality should approach oneness in the long run. It's the rate at which one gets to where one wants to go that has my attention.

 

[aslan]

Aslan, you and i have traveled down a similar road it seems. although from the betting levels you describe i think you are playing at higher stakes than i ever attempted.
but i also reached a point where i decided to take a breather from play. and it was after a short series of some pretty bad beats after a long series of pretty darn nice results. i called it my blackjack sabbatical.
it was at least a time to not be losing money and where i could examine what the heck it was that i was doing anyway lol . i'm still on the sabbatical although i have played some.
much of what you say in your post rings true with me. and then what Bojack wrote also rings true.
so far where my sabbatical has led me is a result of not so much that i've learned anything new about advantage play but that i've had new insight about my self. i suppose some people are capable of playing blackjack like a computer. i for one would find it a miserly existance even if the money rolled in like it may for a computer. i simply can not divorce my self from the play.
lets say we could play at a ROR of 1%. it would always be in the back of my mind that it would be me that is going to be the one that the ruin falls upon.
but what riles me about that is that if that did happen it would happen with out my having interjected what ever it is that i could have done or should have done to try and stop it. i believe part of the conumdrun for me is that i can't honestly devote the required bankroll amount to the long term knowing that there is some percent risk of ruin that i need to live with. the weird thing is i can devote some amount to any given session. but i even then still have the personal need to be an active participant in the process rather than a passive participant that plays like a computer. so thats where i am for now with respect to playing blackjack a game i love.
good luck to you and may you make wise decisions what ever you do.

I can easily relate to your story. We are perhaps kindred spirits.

Actually, since I have made sure to get plenty of sleep on these trips, the roller coaster no longer bothers me. Judging from others' reactions, I sometimes seem totally detached, even bored, by what is going on. My hand just pushes out $200 to two or three hands like it was nothing. It's the right thing to do no matter what happens. I actually enjoy being able to conquer my emotions to this point. It took a while. But since the level I aspire to requires more money than I wish to take from joint accounts, I may decide to get a job to replenish my bankroll.

This time I am not at all depressed. I just see it as negative fluctuation that would probably go away tomorrow it I played. Acquiring the size BR that I would like to have is a bit of a problem because I don't want to take from joint accounts. But that's about it. Oh, and I do want to understand the rate at which i should expect to win in the long run. I don't like the idea of perhaps losing a large amount here and there on a journey to net a surer small amount. But that's just me I guess.

 

[Kasi]

Probability and reality should approach oneness in the long run.

I just hope it's not the probability of losing a bankroll that merges with reality.

Have you even bought a sim yet?

You don't know your EV? You think betting $200 to 2 or 3 hands can both be correct? Suddenly going to a $25 min game? Do you even know what bankroll you are betting with, ROR? etc.

Love you to death but I can't help worrying, without even knowing what kind of game you're playing, etc. that, basically, you may be over-betting. And then some.

Contrary to what someone said our job is not to "bet a ton" in positive EV situations but the amount you know is called for.

Hope I'm wrong lol.

Feel free to convince me lol!

 

[aslan]

I just hope it's not the probability of losing a bankroll that merges with reality.

Have you even bought a sim yet?

You don't know your EV? You think betting $200 to 2 or 3 hands can both be correct? Suddenly going to a $25 min game? Do you even know what bankroll you are betting with, ROR? etc.

Love you to death but I can't help worrying, without even knowing what kind of game you're playing, etc. that, basically, you may be over-betting. And then some.

Contrary to what someone said our job is not to "bet a ton" in positive EV situations but the amount you know is called for.

Hope I'm wrong lol.

Feel free to convince me lol!

I believe I need in excess of $25,000 BR to be playing $25 games and spreading to one hand of $250 and two hands of $200. I only spread to three hands a couple of times and don't know the exact effect. I have been told by zg and others that these 6 and 8 deck games require more than a 1 X 10 spread when pen is mediocre. I did not, however, exceed 1 to 10 in most cases. Of course exceeding the 10X spread would drive my max BR requirement up to, say, $30,000 or more. Am I terribly off? I forget what my ROR is at this level, but I once knew and found it acceptable. I don't particularly see the need to get it down to near nothing; ie, I'm willing to take some risk. Surprise me. lol

 

[Kasi]

I believe I need in excess of $25,000 BR to be playing $25 games and spreading to one hand of $250 and two hands of $200. I only spread to three hands a couple of times and don't know the exact effect. I have been told by zg and others that these 6 and 8 deck games require more than a 1 X 10 spread when pen is mediocre. I did not, however, exceed 1 to 10 in most cases. Of course exceeding the 10X spread would drive my max BR requirement up to, say, $30,000 or more. Am I terribly off? I forget what my ROR is at this level, but I once knew and found it acceptable. I don't particularly see the need to get it down to near nothing; ie, I'm willing to take some risk. Surprise me. lol

Are you "playing-all" in these 6 and 8D games? Wonging in? Wonging out?

If you're playing all, I'd guess it's overbetting in an 8D game but maybe OK if it's 6D, if you like full-Kelly. Which I don't lol.

I'm sure others have better input than this.

So I take it you bet all this money and haven't yet spent a 4-unit bet to perhaps refresh your memory what EV and ROR might be lol?

The reason I don't like full-kelly is you have a 50% chance of losing half your bankroll at some point but only a 1-in8 chance at half-kelly kind of thing. So you have to know what goes along with a risk of losing an entire bankroll.

So, if you don't like the swings, full-kelly may not be for you. I don't think many people actually use it but I could be wrong.

 

[Tarzan]

I Feel Your Pain

I've seen the same thing at times with the dealer that can do no wrong regardless of the count. The count gives you an indicator of a few percentage points in the LONG TERM and can have whacky results in the short term. I will bail off a table for any given reason that does not "tickle my fancy" with little regard for the count at a given moment...do the "jackrabbit"! There are other tables!
Maybe this qualifies as "voodoo" but I know a few dealers personally and talk to them at length about the things they see and what goes on. I have talked about this before on here I am sure but many dealers will say that when they are "hot", they have a tendency to run that way for much of their shift and by the same token also seem to "puke out chips" and break a lot, etc. for their entire shift at other times. I have seen this happen no matter what the count is doing. Hell, I have had it to where I won every hand on a poor count with lower bets out and then pumped it up with the count "peachy" only to have the dealer get a 20 or a blackjack on about every hand while I get 12-16 on every hand and also break every one of them! It is the short term though and the overall is that I have done well in the last 2 years of playing blackjack fulltime, approximately 30 hours worth a week.
It happened to me last week...I took a $4000.00 beating in one playing session! There I was bragging about not a single losing session for the year on here a few weeks back and then I ran into the WRONG dealer that could not get anything but 20,21 or blackjack for every single hand no matter what the count was doing (and I was playing in the pit at $100 minimum!)... OOPS! There goes my great run for the year. It put a dent in me but in the overall I have plowed out enough for the year that I can easily shrug it off, even though I was pissed about it going that bad.
I have read all your posts also, Aslan and I have to agree with you not adhering to a strict gameplan or taking whacky chances at other games such as craps or whatever that can get you "out of the frying pan and into the fire". Did my wife like me strolling in the door to say,"Well, I took $4000 worth of ass-kicking for the day..."---"WHAT??!!! OMG!!!" Yes, she is used to me strolling in happy faced and counting out piles of 100 dollar bills out on the kitchen table. That loss seemed like a lot of money to her...my gosh all the stuff you could have bought with THAT, right? What she is looking at is the short term and not the big picture of the many thousands over and above that made previously making the $4000 loss actually not all that significant.
They are geared up to take your money and beat you up...as time has gone by the casinos are looking to maximize every nickel that can whack you out of more and more to the greatest extent possible. I try to think beyond just counting and feel that the only way I can stay on top is to have intuition, intelligence gathering, money management skills, a mind like a steel trap with regard to a dead accurate count ALONG with a little luck hopefully...and even then I am still beatable. They have a bigger bankroll than me along with a built in advantage that they are trying to improve on all the time!
You play in Atlantic City? Look me up sometime...let's diddle about on the table in my den in "workshop" fashion. I play 3-5 days a week in AC and also play every single day on both the computer thing and with live cards on my table at home. I feel you can never be too prepared because you can bet your mule that the casinos intend on being as prepared as they can possibly be to clean you out for all it's worth!

 

[aslan]

Are you "playing-all" in these 6 and 8D games? Wonging in? Wonging out?

If you're playing all, I'd guess it's overbetting in an 8D game but maybe OK if it's 6D, if you like full-Kelly. Which I don't lol.

I play mostly 6 deck. I am using guidelines from the KO book to ramp up my bets. I am also using their guidelines to estimate my required BR (100 times max bet).

I'm sure others have better input than this.

So I take it you bet all this money and haven't yet spent a 4-unit bet to perhaps refresh your memory what EV and ROR might be lol?

I used guidelines in the KO book when considering my ROR. This was consistent with a BR 1oo times my mad bet. I don't remember them calling it full kelly, which doesn't really matter if the BR is replenishable, does it?

The reason I don't like full-kelly is you have a 50% chance of losing half your bankroll at some point but only a 1-in8 chance at half-kelly kind of thing. So you have to know what goes along with a risk of losing an entire bankroll.

I am not poor. I consider the small amount I lost to be just that, a small amount. I don't however choose to replenish my BR from money in the bank or investments, because I want to leave my spouse out of it. Therefore, I am thinking about working a while to acquire an independent BR. I was working with a small amount of session cash and hoped it would not it hit too hard, but so goes it with the best laid plans of mice and men.
So, if you don't like the swings, full-kelly may not be for you. I don't think many people actually use it but I could be wrong.

The swings I don't like are the swings that are a part of the counting process itself. Losses seem to be magnified but fewer, while winnings seem to be reduced but more frequent. Losses magnified because the dealer is always favored to win more hands in both negative and positive counts and when the dealer wins more at max bet, including hands with splits and double downs, it is very costly to the counter, especially when he loses the splits and doubles. Winnings reduced, because the dealer will usually win more hands in positive counts than the player and these wins greatly reduce the counters winnings even when the counter wins splits, doubles and blackjacks. I surmise, but may be wrong, that the E.V. for the counter comes from mostly small wins, and mostly large but fewer losses. The counter still has the advantage, but a session loss seems to be usually larger than a session win, there's just fewer of them. Is this right?

 

[Kasi]

The swings I don't like are the swings that are a part of the counting process itself...

Hey - I don't know all the answers that's for sure lol.

If you know and have full confidence in what you are doing, great. I don't know KO per se that well so I can't really say that much about it.

Never seen the magic in defining a bankroll by max bets.

Anyway, do me a favor and at least get a clue on EV and ROR for whatever game you play most often and how with what bankroll etc.

Just because a book may recommend 100 max bets doesn't mean it's right for you. After all, all Schelesinger's stuff is based on full-kelly and I even think he admits that's a little extreme. Sometimes the bankroll might be 30 max bets, sometimes more than 100 max bet. All at the same ROR.

At the very least, examine the underlying assumptions of the recommended bet.

Anyway, I'm not saying you're doing anything utterly unreasonable or anything, just that (just a guess lol) you may be playing right on the edge of optimal growth and can expect big swings.

After all, it doesn't matter how many times you can replenish a roll if it's doomed to lose each time. (Not saying yours is lol).

Hey - somebody has to be the voice of doom lol.

 

[21forme]

Speaking of KO, I'm currently reading Grosjean's "Beyond Counting," and in his book he talks about the counts he's used over the years. His most recent switch was from HiLo to KO. If it's good enough for him...

 

[aslan]

......

Thanks.

I think I'm on the right track. My loss was just a blip. Anyway I'm ahead overall.

I can't play lower than $25 because it just doesn't have the promise of enough return to satisfy me. I was hoping not to come to this point, actually going to work to earn a BR, but I'd rather do that than have my wife worrying about whether I will win or lose "our" money. Actually, we're pretty well off, but you know how it is with the ladies. lol

We'll have to get together sometime. BTW, a good friend of mine I grew up with was a fanatic about Tarzan. I don't think he lives up there, but just in case, his name was Hank. lol That would be a needle in a haystack.

Maybe we can get together some time. Good talking with you.

 

[aslan]

Speaking of KO, I'm currently reading Grosjean's "Beyond Counting," and in his book he talks about the counts he's used over the years. His most recent switch was from HiLo to KO. If it's good enough for him...

Yes. I'm of the same opinion.

I have been mulling over what Tarzan said. In those high positive counts where the dealer seems to have everything going his way, I would have done better bailing out. I wonder if that could be a rule of thumb. Test the waters. If you start off winning the big ones, stick to it...otherwise bail. Is that Voo Doo in your opinion, or just common sense?

And yes, like Tarzan, what I have experienced mostly is that some dealers seem to kill everyone and others seem to do the opposite. However, in my last session yesterday, the entire table was losing hand after hand except the gentleman to my right who proclaimed this as his best streak ever. He was betting two and three hundred at a time and getting more than his share of blackjacks and other good hands. He won 3 to 5 thousand within an hour at this $15 table. It was hard to keep track because he was coloring up to $500 chips every few minutes.

 

[sagefr0g]

Yes. I'm of the same opinion.

I have been mulling over what Tarzan said. In those high positive counts where the dealer seems to have everything going his way, I would have done better bailing out. I wonder if that could be a rule of thumb. Test the waters. If you start off winning the big ones, stick to it...otherwise bail. Is that Voo Doo in your opinion, or just common sense?

And yes, like Tarzan, what I have experienced mostly is that some dealers seem to kill everyone and others seem to do the opposite. However, in my last session yesterday, the entire table was losing hand after hand.........

i'm sympathetic but i believe it's voodoo...... even i draw the line somewhere lol.....
i mean the whole point of counting lol even the fuzzy count is to find those positive situations and they are so few and far between. to walk away just because the dealer is winning hand over fist is unfortunately defeating the purpose of counting lol.
but i guess i have a mindset towards something that is just as voodoo...... whereas it's my intention to 'play to the short term' rather than the long term lol and try and consolidate my short term winnings on a session by session basis should i be so lucky to have results better or equal to some expectation or better. the problem with that philosophy comes when you hit that big losing session or a big series of losing sessions........ but i don't think it hurts your advantage, just doesn't help it lol and it slows down how many hands you get in so your winrate goes down. just the thing is i am more psychologically comfortable that way.

 

[sagefr0g]

......, I may decide to get a job to replenish my bankroll.

...

thats what i did. i thought i'd work and play just as i did before i retired. lol i guess i'm not the iron man anymore since i found i just didn't have the energy to do both like i used to.