Losing in positive counts is becoming all too familiar

[creeping panther]

Aslan and all miss the point

First of all Grosjean hasn't been playing "all that long" when he wrote his much hyped book.

The truth is there are games offered where you do have a sizable edge over the casino, just take the minimal effort needed to find them!

I think most of you lack discipline and common sense. First off you should be playing no more than 4 deck shoes or just DD and SD, AND, NOT, NOT with more than yourself, the dealer and one other player, preferrably a teammate.

Play with the LS option, VERY important and you can find it. In less than 4 deck games don't snivel about no DAS and double on 10, 11 only, it will greatly decrease your dramatic swings. ONLY play a game with at least 75% pen.

Hi-lo being used by a skilled counter using many indice plays will get the job done as well as any other system, considering all the other ramifications of higher level counts.

I think many of you here are more gamblers than SKILLED AP's., willing to play any game just to get some action, the road to disaster.

Summmation, get disciplined and skilled and stop whinning!

Creeping Panther.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Thanks.

Actually, we're pretty well off, but you know how it is with the ladies. lol

It's really not a laughing matter. Women in relationships have bankrupted more men than any other force around.

They methodically seek out men of good to high earning capacity and strip them of everything.

Then it's "lather, rinse repeat". And then they have the audacity to claim "men are insincere, dishonest etc".

We find these women lurking the personal ads bitching that they can't find a "good looking sensitive guy". The real truth be told it is always blood money they are after. Nothing else. That and to dominate a man and drive him crazy 24/7.

A card player is far better off being single. Or any man for that matter.

The courts, laws and social structure are tilted 30 degrees off center to unfairly use and abuse men for the sake of these sick twisted people we call the female species.

The large body of women out there are nothing but parasitical leeches. You can quote me on that...

 

[RJT]

First of all Grosjean hasn't been playing "all that long" when he wrote his much hyped book.

Creeping Panther.

Funny but i know several people who know JG and think he is a fantastic player. Maybe the length of time he's been play's irrelevant if he's good at what he's doing.
As to it i agree with most of what you say CP.

RJT.

 

[Sonny]

I have been mulling over what Tarzan said. In those high positive counts where the dealer seems to have everything going his way, I would have done better bailing out. I wonder if that could be a rule of thumb. Test the waters. If you start off winning the big ones, stick to it...otherwise bail. Is that Voo Doo in your opinion, or just common sense?

Complete and total voodoo. Just because you lost the previous hand doesn’t mean you are more likely to lose the next hand. That’s the same “logic” the progression players use. Don’t fall for it. If you have the advantage then you expect to earn money from the next hand. Walking away will just cause you to lose more money and waste more time. Why would you spend all that time waiting for an advantage if you’re just going to walk away from it when you finally get it?

As others have pointed out, you seem to be a little unsure about the game. You’re not sure what your EV is, you don’t remember your RoR and you don’t know what sort of short-term swings to expect. I think you would feel a lot better if you knew what to expect. You would feel more certain about your results and you would know if something wasn’t right. That kind of security can only come through knowledge. Once you know what the hourly swings will be like you will feel better when they happen because you were expecting them. When you know your RoR you will feel more comfortable with the risks you are taking. When you have an idea about how far the long run is you will feel more confident about reaching your expected results.

Your apprehension is perfectly normal, but I think it will slowly fade as you get more knowledge and experience.

-Sonny-

 

[aslan]

i'm sympathetic but i believe it's voodoo...... even i draw the line somewhere lol.....
i mean the whole point of counting lol even the fuzzy count is to find those positive situations and they are so few and far between. to walk away just because the dealer is winning hand over fist is unfortunately defeating the purpose of counting lol.
but i guess i have a mindset towards something that is just as voodoo...... whereas it's my intention to 'play to the short term' rather than the long term lol and try and consolidate my short term winnings on a session by session basis should i be so lucky to have results better or equal to some expectation or better. the problem with that philosophy comes when you hit that big losing session or a big series of losing sessions........ but i don't think it hurts your advantage, just doesn't help it lol and it slows down how many hands you get in so your winrate goes down. just the thing is i am more psychologically comfortable that way.

You know, I didn't walk away and playing that last hand in the shoe got me $800 back (a split and a double down I believe). Of course, if I had lost it I would have been busted. My friends were sitting back watching me and they were amazed at how coolly I was zipping in those two hands of $200 apiece throughout a long positive count. It wasn't until later that I was mulling over what happened and began second guessing myself. lol Yes, you're right, scientifically speaking--it is voodoo. You can never know when it will turn your way. You could lose 7 in a row, and then mysteriously win the next 7.

Has anybody ever done a study of how shuffling affects the house edge. I mean, if cards seem to alternate pretty regularly between high cards and low cards, that would seem to favor the house. The playes and the dealer normally get one high card and one low card. The dealer has the advantage that his hole card is hidden, so half the time his up card would be a ten on average causing half or more of the players to bust. Then the dealer has another chance at the remaining players by making a good hand. It would seem that a normal shuffle would tend to maintain the well mixed high and low cards. Is there any study to show that some tables should be avoided because there is not enough clumping of high and low cards that might help players get good hands, and might also help the count to go positive or negative more quickly. Well mixed high and lows might actually prevent the count from ever going positive. If there is something to read about this, I'd sure like to read it.

 

[aslan]

First of all Grosjean hasn't been playing "all that long" when he wrote his much hyped book.

The truth is there are games offered where you do have a sizable edge over the casino, just take the minimal effort needed to find them!

I think most of you lack discipline and common sense. First off you should be playing no more than 4 deck shoes or just DD and SD, AND, NOT, NOT with more than yourself, the dealer and one other player, preferrably a teammate.

Play with the LS option, VERY important and you can find it. In less than 4 deck games don't snivel about no DAS and double on 10, 11 only, it will greatly decrease your dramatic swings. ONLY play a game with at least 75% pen.

Hi-lo being used by a skilled counter using many indice plays will get the job done as well as any other system, considering all the other ramifications of higher level counts.

I think many of you here are more gamblers than SKILLED AP's., willing to play any game just to get some action, the road to disaster.

Summmation, get disciplined and skilled and stop whinning!

Creeping Panther.

Dear Creeping

There are no 4, 2, or 1 deck games on the east coast that I know of, except 6 to 5 single deck. There is also no surrender, late or otherwise. Arnold Snyder believes you can beat these 6 and 8 deck games with decent pen, but they are a hard nut to crack. In AC you are pretty much limited to wonging out, but occasionally you can find a game where you can backcount. Mostly I find myself looking for good pen. Also, the casinos are wise (perhaps inadvertently) in keeping the tables jammed most of the time by not opening vacant tables until demand rises sky high. This may be an accident due to failure to anticipate the crowds with adequate scheduling of dealers, or it may be a carefully thought out strategy. The average player ,when they can't get on a bj table, generally turn to games and slots with a higher house edge.

 

[aslan]

It's really not a laughing matter. Women in relationships have bankrupted more men than any other force around.

They methodically seek out men of good to high earning capacity and strip them of everything.

Then it's "lather, rinse repeat". And then they have the audacity to claim "men are insincere, dishonest etc".

We find these women lurking the personal ads bitching that they can't find a "good looking sensitive guy". The real truth be told it is always blood money they are after. Nothing else. That and to dominate a man and drive him crazy 24/7.

A card player is far better off being single. Or any man for that matter.

The courts, laws and social structure are tilted 30 degrees off center to unfairly use and abuse men for the sake of these sick twisted people we call the female species.

The large body of women out there are nothing but parasitical leeches. You can quote me on that...

Sorry about your bad experiences with women. My wife is a very frugal, down to earth, practical sort. She rarely spends money and is constantly seeking bargains for everything from restaurants, to clothing, to household goods. She, unlike me, would rather work than not. She works two jobs, one of them for the "fun" of it, a concept that has never fully penetrated my cranium. She is an accountant by profession, while on weekends "enjoys" working in a retail store. I think she likes the social aspect of working with the other "girls." I don't know. I have pointed out to her that after taxes she gains very little from her second job, but she persists. To her life is work. To me it's freedom from work. lol Not that I didn't enjoy parts of my work when I had to do it. I did. lol But I dread the thought of re-donning that pin stripe suit, hob-knobbing with corporate types, talking the talk, and walking the walk--God! I'm so glad that is all behind me now. But back to my wife--maybe I'm just lucky. She has plenty of faults (and so do I) but nothing that makes her hard to live with or to enjoy her company. I guess it's part luck and part the eye of the beholder.

 

[NDN21]

losing

Perhaps you should look back at your statistics over the last several (40+?)gaming sessions. Are you actually losing more or does it just seem like it? What is actually happening?

Find out what type of variance you should expect with the conditions and system you use. You may be experiencing more variance than you should or it may be normal.

 

[aslan]

Complete and total voodoo. Just because you lost the previous hand doesn’t mean you are more likely to lose the next hand. That’s the same “logic” the progression players use. Don’t fall for it. If you have the advantage then you expect to earn money from the next hand. Walking away will just cause you to lose more money and waste more time. Why would you spend all that time waiting for an advantage if you’re just going to walk away from it when you finally get it?

As others have pointed out, you seem to be a little unsure about the game. You’re not sure what your EV is, you don’t remember your RoR and you don’t know what sort of short-term swings to expect. I think you would feel a lot better if you knew what to expect. You would feel more certain about your results and you would know if something wasn’t right. That kind of security can only come through knowledge. Once you know what the hourly swings will be like you will feel better when they happen because you were expecting them. When you know your RoR you will feel more comfortable with the risks you are taking. When you have an idea about how far the long run is you will feel more confident about reaching your expected results.

Your apprehension is perfectly normal, but I think it will slowly fade as you get more knowledge and experience.

-Sonny-

Like I mentioned before, I had figured out E.V. and RoR at one time but had forgotten what it was..Early onset Alzheimers I guess. lol I've pinned a lot of my play on the KO Blackjack book. For example it says, "Keeping your maximum bet below 1% of your bankroll should reduce your risk of ruin to an acceptable level." I also follow the books suggested betting progression. For RC's of -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, +1, +2, +3, +4 I bet in units, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10. Also, according to the book, my RoR using 1,000 unit BR in 2-deck would be somewhere around 1% or less using their chart. I don't know how that translates to 6-deck, but I wouldn't think it would be more than 2% since the % expectation for 2-deck is 1.11 and the % expectation for 6-deck is .73. Anyway, I always thought I was in safe territory based on a BR I think I can afford of $25,000.

 

[sagefr0g]

You know, I didn't walk away and playing that last hand in the shoe got me $800 back (a split and a double down I believe). Of course, if I had lost it I would have been busted. My friends were sitting back watching me and they were amazed at how coolly I was zipping in those two hands of $200 apiece throughout a long positive count. It wasn't until later that I was mulling over what happened and began second guessing myself. lol Yes, you're right, scientifically speaking--it is voodoo. You can never know when it will turn your way. You could lose 7 in a row, and then mysteriously win the next 7.

i was going to mention the fact that was in your post which you mention above as i felt it would be a revelation to you of sorts lol . i'm glad i didn't since you came up with it on your on........ so that is a real revelation!
that being things were working out for you advantage-wise in that instance just as expected and according to theory. split's & double downs not to mention blackjacks....and we realize the most success with them in the positive counts when we have the most money out. and here it made a significant dent in your negative fluctuation which as we know is also a part of the equation.

Has anybody ever done a study of how shuffling affects the house edge. I mean, if cards seem to alternate pretty regularly between high cards and low cards, that would seem to favor the house. The playes and the dealer normally get one high card and one low card. The dealer has the advantage that his hole card is hidden, so half the time his up card would be a ten on average causing half or more of the players to bust. Then the dealer has another chance at the remaining players by making a good hand. It would seem that a normal shuffle would tend to maintain the well mixed high and low cards. Is there any study to show that some tables should be avoided because there is not enough clumping of high and low cards that might help players get good hands, and might also help the count to go positive or negative more quickly. Well mixed high and lows might actually prevent the count from ever going positive. If there is something to read about this, I'd sure like to read it.

yes such studies have been conducted. uhmm probably though we don't want to use that clumping referance as the term is mostly related to a bogus voodoo viewpoint that was bandied about by pretty much some charlatan types.
but with respect to shuffles yes there have been serious studies. Wong has some interesting stuff about them in Professional Blackjack. also if you study up some on shuffle tracking and sequencing you will find some interesting information about shuffles.
but yes there is going to be a symetry as to how the hi & lo cards get distributed in a pack to be dealt. you can realize this by noting that there is a normal distribution of true counts that presents in the long run for any given pack ie. single deck, double deck, four deck, six deck and eight deck. what this means is you can expect a certain percentage of true counts to present in the long run. this of course is representative of the distribution of hi & lo cards in a pack to be dealt. it's interesting to note that such distributions are affected by penetration.
and in agreement with what you allude to above, yes this all works as part of how the house gets it's advantage and lucky for us how we as counters get our advantage. it's a dependable normal distribution of hi & lo cards that lends the game a degree of predictability for both house and AP.

 

[blackchipjim]

My two cents!

Aslan I applaud you on your tenacity in the face adversity. I too have felt the same pressure to maintain my levels in betting. I am still learning and my bankroll is much smaller than yours but I expect it to change in the furture. I too have had my head bashed in on high counts only to watch my hours of playing bankroll be deminshed by the dealers hands of death. I have learned to accept my losses as standard deviation and nothing more. I won't say that I haven't questioned the ko count but that is another story. blackchipjim

 

[InPlay]

Aslan I applaud you on your tenacity in the face adversity. I too have felt the same pressure to maintain my levels in betting. I am still learning and my bankroll is much smaller than yours but I expect it to change in the furture. I too have had my head bashed in on high counts only to watch my hours of playing bankroll be deminshed by the dealers hands of death. I have learned to accept my losses as standard deviation and nothing more. I won't say that I haven't questioned the ko count but that is another story. blackchipjim

When you say STANDARD DEVIATION you mean LUCK. So is it all LUCK and very little skill involved? Is it better to be lucky or better to get your head bashed in? In the end the only thing that matters is whether you win or lose. It doesn't matter how you arrived there. :laugh:

 

[Tarzan]

Voodoo, my first wife and double deck blues....

I just played my last little push for the year, closing out with only a modest $300 bucks gain for the day today. Yes, Sonny I used the whole voodoo playing in evaluating what a given table was doing which consisted of watching how the dealer was doing overall versus how the count was doing(I forgot to look for the darn full ashtrays though!), sitting back and/or out to allow others to be the "crash test dummies" and burn lots of little cards before I step in, watch the cards as they are coming out to evaluate if there is clumping of anything or the cards are well-mixed. Sort of hear from the players that had been there playing what their thoughts were on how it was going, etc. It was only a $10 min table so it was sort of carefree and no sweat either way to me but all those things I try to do above and beyond counting are all just second nature to me. I like to sit back and watch an entire shoe played if possible to get a "read" on the deck for the clumping, etc., so I can watch the shuffle and hopefully be the one to cut or perhaps see a huge run of small cards fly out along with players at the table getting slaughtered and walking away, leaving me to stroll in and do my thing. I like to know if the dealer is "running hot" on their particular shift. I even want to know the pit boss chick's bra size. I do these things whether playing at a $10 table or playing in the pit for $100 minimum. That skiddish voodoo jackrabbit beyond just counting and robotic betting accordingly has been to my benefit and saved/made me money in trying for the most absolute favorable conditions possible. At least this is the case in my own feeble mind...for all I know it's of little difference and you are right!

Irishman...Jeez buddy! You undoubtedly have dated my first ex-wife and for both of us to have that misfortune? Wow, small world. I wish I could have warned you about her.

Only play double deck? I WISH!!!! Atlantic City has 6 deck games, 8 deck games and single deck slaughter (6-5 with no double down after splits!). The only option is to play the 6 deck game with good penetration. There are no double deck games in AC, unfortunately. Simply a matter of doing the best you can with what you've got. I am going to be in Vegas in March and I will play double deck exclusively. I was asking a few of the Vegas crew about things in Vegas though and they say you might be let down somewhat if you haven't been there since year before last{I am still wondering what they mean by that in detail but like many things you shouldn't get too specific on here because this is a public site and you can figure "the enemy", (casino management) review any and all public forums such as this to gain intelligence data].

 

[Tarzan]

OOps! I almost forgot...LUCK!

The "lucky player" with little or no skill. I see this on a regular basis and saw it this morning even in watching an oriental gentleman at the same $10 minimum table that I was diddling around at slapping down some pretty fat bets in the $100-$200 range when I was sitting back, sitting out because there were 15 extra cards in the 2-5 range more than 10's in the remainder of the shoe with being 2 1/2 decks into the 6 deck shoe and winning big. At this point I knew it was a lost cause for the count to circle back and I was waiting for the next shoe patiently. The more he won the more he bet! He was on a roll! During the course of my patient wait I watched his luck run out and he ultimately handed back all he had won. He sort of looked disturbed when he was pulling out another stack of bills and buying in for more chips.

Moral of the story is that we all need a little luck but going for it relying on luck alone is like going into a gun battle armed with only a pocket knife. If you do everything right in the way of tangible and feasible strategy to your best advantage and don't have a touch of the infamous and nebulous undeterminable luck factor you may now be going to the gun battle armed with a bb gun against their AK-47's.....

 

[EasyRhino]

I think I would like to posit an even stronger version of the aslan's argument from the original post:

When playing a shoe, the effect of the count on the play of hands will be undectable by a human being. In other words, there's still a ton of cards left in the shoe, both high and low, and randomness is going to happen.

Yes, I am impatient to win sizable amounts and that is why I am playing $25 min now.

This is a very dangerous statement.

Here's some simple numbers from you from powersim, assuming an 8D game 6.5 decks dealt, S17 and no surrender. This is a perfect hi-lo player (I18) Play all with a $25 min bet and $250 max bet.

Win rate: $17.8 per 100 hands
RoR = 16.7%

Now, in this same game, if you somehow avoid every count at TC 0 or lower, the win rate jumps up to $34.3 per 100 hands seen, and the RoR drops to 1.9%.

It's important to note that even if you avoid negative counts, the win rate is still not even 2 min bets per 100 hands. And if you're playing in crowded conditions, then you'll be getting less than 100 hands per hour.

And while the short-term is extremely erratic, long-term results will always converge towards your cumulative win rate. they must.

Counting cards is a crappy way to get rich quick. It's a marginal way to earn a few bucks slowly, and when done wrong, it's an effective way to get poor quick.

(as an aside, note that wonging makes a huge difference in risk of ruin).

 

[Kasi]

Like I mentioned before, I had figured out E.V. and RoR at one time but had forgotten what it was..Early onset Alzheimers I guess. lol I've pinned a lot of my play on the KO Blackjack book. For example it says, "Keeping your maximum bet below 1% of your bankroll should reduce your risk of ruin to an acceptable level." I also follow the books suggested betting progression. For RC's of -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, +1, +2, +3, +4 I bet in units, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10. Also, according to the book, my RoR using 1,000 unit BR in 2-deck would be somewhere around 1% or less using their chart. I don't know how that translates to 6-deck, but I wouldn't think it would be more than 2% since the % expectation for 2-deck is 1.11 and the % expectation for 6-deck is .73. Anyway, I always thought I was in safe territory based on a BR I think I can afford of $25,000.

Well, like Easy Rhinos's sims showed, it depends alot on exactly how you're playing.

I guess I still think, at the levels you're playing, buying a sim to get as exact as you can under various scenarios is probably well worth it.

 

[aslan]

I think I would like to posit an even stronger version of the aslan's argument from the original post:

When playing a shoe, the effect of the count on the play of hands will be undectable by a human being. In other words, there's still a ton of cards left in the shoe, both high and low, and randomness is going to happen.



This is a very dangerous statement.

Here's some simple numbers from you from powersim, assuming an 8D game 6.5 decks dealt, S17 and no surrender. This is a perfect hi-lo player (I18) Play all with a $25 min bet and $250 max bet.

Win rate: $17.8 per 100 hands
RoR = 16.7%

Now, in this same game, if you somehow avoid every count at TC 0 or lower, the win rate jumps up to $34.3 per 100 hands seen, and the RoR drops to 1.9%.

It's important to note that even if you avoid negative counts, the win rate is still not even 2 min bets per 100 hands. And if you're playing in crowded conditions, then you'll be getting less than 100 hands per hour.

And while the short-term is extremely erratic, long-term results will always converge towards your cumulative win rate. they must.

Counting cards is a crappy way to get rich quick. It's a marginal way to earn a few bucks slowly, and when done wrong, it's an effective way to get poor quick.

(as an aside, note that wonging makes a huge difference in risk of ruin).

All points well taken. Thanks. :dog:

 

[aslan]

Well, like Easy Rhinos's sims showed, it depends alot on exactly how you're playing.

I guess I still think, at the levels you're playing, buying a sim to get as exact as you can under various scenarios is probably well worth it.

Agreed. Sim of choice?

 

[mjbballar23]

sims

In answering Aslan's question, could someone also explain the difference between CVCX and CVData. And also, Aslan you have my greatest sympathies. $17 per 100 is terrible when you concider your max bet. It may be hard because you live relatively close to AC but i think you should really concider finding a better game even if it requieres a further travel.

 

[Kasi]

Agreed. Sim of choice?

So, you finally called my bluff lol?!

I'd recommend one but I don't have any.

Or, as my mother said, do as I say don't do as I do lol.

Although I admit I'm prejudiced toward Norm's products.

Others may have actual use of various products to comment on.