Martingale Vs Card Counting

[bj bob]

. It accentuates your wins, especially when you ramp up bets! In the short run, it can work wonders!

In the short run, any cockamamy system can and does work wonders.

 

[tthree]

Just out of the curiosity, what are odds to lose 5 in a row on counts ,3,4,5,

TC +3 you win 44.1% and lose 47.8%. Negating pushes you lose 52% of the time. You lose 5 in a row 3.8% of the time. Thats about once every 26.3 timess.

TC +4 you win 44.25% and lose 47.1%. Negating pushes you lose 51.56% of the time. You lose 5 in a row 3.64% of the time. That's about once every 27.5 times.

TC +5 you win 44.4% and lose 46.7%. Negating pushes you lose 51.26% of the time. You lose 5 in a row 3.54% of the time. That's about once every 28.25 times.

* This is for HIOPT II, HILO approximately half the TC values for the same percentage. The low PE of HILO would increase the odds of 5 in a row just a tiny bit.

 

[aslan]

I agree more with azbj .. it is pretty rare.

Even at +10 , losing 5 in a row is quite rare.

I hope someone here runs a sim on wins/losses at +15 and better to demonstrate that this is simply not true. If it were, I would be a millionaire by now. How many times I have pushed max bet out only to see it add to the casinos coffers. Many times I have been fortunate to recoup my losses on the last few plays as the count dropped down below +15. Of course, you realize that the big cards we all relish only come out to play when the count drops, not when it rises. That is not to say we have no advantage at high counts, only that our advantage is increased or diminished by the direction of the count, a fact only established in hindsight.

I have had miserable luck at times with counts running over +20. Besides an incremental increase in the percentage of hands won on average, the blessings of high counts are the increase in the number of naturals and an increase in the win percentage for splits and double downs. When the naturals, splits and double downs do not occur, we are at a serious disadvantage. Even when they DO come, we are still only FAVORED to win, not GUARANTEED to win.

All those fabulous several-thousand-dollar shoes we experience are not the norm. The stats do not lie; after all is said and done, and that includes some "fabulous" losses, as well, we must face the reality of a grinding $25 an hour (or whatever our game min happens to be), and that is only if we have the discipline to play our best game and not give up much by way of camo. Every EV gobbling camo shaves a bit off our dollar-an-hour expectation. In the end, we cannot escape the mathematics of it all, even though at times we feel invincible and bound to win every high count. Let there be no doubt about it: counting is not for the faint of heart. There must be a reason that pros starting out with counting mostly find their way to other, more profitable forms of AP. That is not to say that the science of card counting is in any way flawed; but today's games, with their so-so rules and usually marginal pen is definitely not the road to riches. For this reason I will forever be a recreational player, at least, when it comes to card counting.

 

[aslan]

In the short run, any cockamamy system can and does work wonders.

My favorite system at roulette is to place $1,000 on red.



PS-- Caution: Leave immediately regardless of outcome.

PSS-- This cockamamie system has been scientifically tested and proven to be a long term loser.

PSSS-- When used in conjunction with Matchplay, this system become a formidable AP tool. Repeat until coupons are exhausted. Then, leave immediately.

PSSSS-- This system may be highly addictive. Discontinue use upon breaking even or becoming a net loser. If you cannot quit, see a psychiatric doctor.

PSSSSS-- If you win using this system, you are still a loser for trying it in the first place. Discontinue use immediately.

 

[sagefr0g]

I hope someone here runs a sim on wins/losses at +15 and better to demonstrate that this is simply not true. If it were, I would be a millionaire by now. How many times I have pushed max bet out only to see it add to the casinos coffers. Many times I have been fortunate to recoup my losses on the last few plays as the count dropped down below +15. Of course, you realize that the big cards we all relish only come out to play when the count drops, not when it rises. That is not to say we have no advantage at high counts, only that our advantage is increased or diminished by the direction of the count, a fact only established in hindsight.

I have had miserable luck at times with counts running over +20. Besides an incremental increase in the percentage of hands won on average, the blessings of high counts are the increase in the number of naturals and an increase in the win percentage for splits and double downs. When the naturals, splits and double downs do not occur, we are at a serious disadvantage. Even when they DO come, we are still only FAVORED to win, not GUARANTEED to win.

All those fabulous several-thousand-dollar shoes we experience are not the norm. The stats do not lie; after all is said and done, and that includes some "fabulous" losses, as well, we must face the reality of a grinding $25 an hour (or whatever our game min happens to be), and that is only if we have the discipline to play our best game and not give up much by way of camo. Every EV gobbling camo shaves a bit off our dollar-an-hour expectation. In the end, we cannot escape the mathematics of it all, even though at times we feel invincible and bound to win every high count. Let there be no doubt about it: counting is not for the faint of heart. There must be a reason that pros starting out with counting mostly find their way to other, more profitable forms of AP. That is not to say that the science of card counting is in any way flawed; but today's games, with their so-so rules and usually marginal pen is definitely not the road to riches. For this reason I will forever be a recreational player, at least, when it comes to card counting.

it's nice to have a diversified portfolio imho, card counting included. if there is an element of fun, so much the better.