Maximizing Match Play Coupons

[moo321]

Wouldn't it be best to use the match play coupon on the highest payout in craps like one of the hop bets or any 7 craps?

Usually high variance is better. I believe the field is the best bet for coupons. Sadly, most matchplays don't allow this.

 

[N&B]

Flash:

Blackjack is more closely;

3/7 you win
1/12 you push
the rest you lose (48.81%)

OR: 43% WIN, 8% PUSH, and 49% LOSE.

JMH2c

 

[Whatsmytotal]

If you use the matchplay for BJ,is is right to double or split, or just hit or stand?

 

[FLASH1296]

You double and split in all cases, including "defensive" splits.

In some borderline situations eschewing the double / split will give up only a modicum of e.v.

The extra potential profit via splits / doubles is why you are choosing to use matchplay at BJ.

If you CANNOT / WILL NOT double or split you are making a mistake and will do better to play the coupon at baccarat.

 

[Whatsmytotal]

I should have specified that if you double or split, only half your total wager gets doubled, i.e. only the amount you bet in cash, and not the MP. So a $10 MP which gets paid 20 when won, gets paid 30 and not 40. Is doubling still correct?

 

[FLASH1296]

ALL Basic Strategy doubles are offensive, meaning that they have profitable expectation.

Double without thinking twice.

Some splits are defensive, meaning that your equity is negative,

BUT less negative than the alternative plays of hitting or stranding.

For those hands, e.g. 8-8 vs, 10 you should NOT double.

 

[miplet]

I think Flash is wrong (sorry Flash). Read the link on the first post in this thread. There is a chart on page 11 which lists the changes. For example a$10 match play with a $10 chip: you would just hit A4 v 4.

 

[FLASH1296]

A4 vs 4 ~ and ~ A2 vs 5 are BORDERLINE plays.

At any negative count they are NOT profitable. At all positive counts they ARE.

At a ZERO True Count it hardly makes any difference what you do.

If the e.v. (your profit potential) is a few pennies than Risk Issues may prevail for you, (as Risk is subjective) and you should not double.

 

[Baseball John]

The casinos I play in will always give you back the match play coupon if you surrender your hand. They take 1/2 of your bet only. Does anyone have a list of hands that should be surrendered when using a match play coupon. Also; If player buys insurance for a least one dollar the coupon is returned to the player.

 

[FLASH1296]

Firstly, you always take insurance with a returnable coupon.
That is obvious.

Surrender is the issue.

Ordinarily if your equity is > -.50 you surrender.
That means you win 25% of the time and lose 75% of the time.
That equates to an equity of -.50%

In this case you are betting 1 unit and the casino is matching it.
So a loss is one unit and a win is 2 units.
You are, in effect, getting 2-1 odds on your bet, as
in the case of a loss the coupon is returned.

So … now you do not need to have a win rate worse than 25% to surrender.
If you win once in 6 times you will win 2 units once and lose one unit 5 times.
That equates to a 3 unit loss on 6 wagers. 6/3 = 50%
So now you see that in this case you are +2 (won) and −5 (lost) for a net of −3. You bet 6 and lost 3 for the same 50% loss that justifies surrendering.

So instead of a 25% winning probability you need < ⅙ = 16.7%

Q. … How bad does a hand have to be for your win rate to be that low?
A. … No hand qualifies. 25% wins is as bad as it gets.

That means that with a match play coupon (returnable following a loss) your surrender criteria is any hand that does not have a loss rate of 33.3%.

Losing ⅓ of the time and winning ⅔ equates to a huge equity of .33% A BJ [paying 3 to 2] gives 40%. Your 20's vs. a dealer 6 equates to a projected win 70% of the time. Win 70. Lose 30 means that the equity is +40% Other than a BJ, this is as good as it gets.

This means you should surrender all but your good hands.

 

[Baseball John]

Bj surrendering with match play coupons

Flash,
Thanks for info. I knew the insurance play. Surrendering hands which lose more than 33% of time is what I am looking for. Do you have a list of those hands? Thanks in advance
John

 

[miplet]

The casinos I play in will always give you back the match play coupon if you surrender your hand. They take 1/2 of your bet only. Does anyone have a list of hands that should be surrendered when using a match play coupon. Also; If player buys insurance for a least one dollar the coupon is returned to the player.

Page 13 in the link in the first post of this thread talks about match plays and surrender. For a LS S17 DOA DAS RS4 NoRSA Match-Play coupon Saved on ties , where doubles and splits can back only the live money, Match-Play gets 3:2 on BJ's game:
5 v t
6 v t
6 v a
7 v t
7 v a
12 v 9-a
13 v 8-a
14-16 v 7-a
17 v 8-a
33 v t
33 v a
66 v 9-a
77 v 8-a
88 v 9
88 v t
(Hope there aren't any typeos)

 

[Baseball John]

Match play surrender

Miplet,
thanks ..... Very helpful

 

[JackBlack11]

Page 13 in the link in the first post of this thread talks about match plays and surrender. For a LS S17 DOA DAS RS4 NoRSA Match-Play coupon Saved on ties , where doubles and splits can back only the live money, Match-Play gets 3:2 on BJ's game:
5 v t
6 v t
6 v a
7 v t
7 v a
12 v 9-a
13 v 8-a
14-16 v 7-a
17 v 8-a
33 v t
33 v a
66 v 9-a
77 v 8-a
88 v 9
88 v t
(Hope there aren't any typeos)

Great info thanks very much