More Edge In Aggressive Card Counting: A Backup Analysis

[QFIT]

This is exactly the thread I have been looking for and any help would be great. After being confident enough to head to the casinos and play, I have made 5 trips to AC and ALL were losing sessions...totalling a little over $3,000.

I bring 1,000$ each trip with me and use around a 1:10 bet spread. 10$ units.
I play very aggressive for the amount of money I bring..I think, but could this be why I have yet to see a winning session? I pretty much always wong in at + counts so I figured one of the times I would be ahead at the start of my first few bets, not yet though.

I also have CVDATA, but am kinda confused about using the ROR calculators and BR calculators so if anyone could assist me it would be appreciated.

OK I think I see a possible problem. You say "I pretty much always wong in at + counts...." Now pretty much is not always. And wong-in is not the same as playing only positive counts. If you only play positive counts, you can use a much lower spread. If you play-all, you need a large spread. Now there are many of us that look for a plus count before sitting down -- but don't leave when the count goes negative. Generally, you still need a large spread in this case. But, it really depends on the exact style.

 

[rollem411]

So the first time you went to AC you tapped out?
Did you think, I need to bring more money or bet less?

The second time you went to AC you tapped out?
Did you think, I need to bring more money or bet less?

The third time you went to AC you tapped out?
Did you think, I need to bring more money or bet less?

Do you see a trend?
Do you see some ways to stop the trend?

I don't need a sim to answer the questions.

Yea, the trend that has been happening is rather frustrating. I did think about bringing more money down with me, but I only live an hour away so I figured it wasn't a problem. If I only wong in at positive counts, I thought I would at least see some positive results at the start of my play. But all 5 times I have been there, it has been negative since the first hand. I have never been short money for a double down or split and never left a shoe at a + count so I didnt think my session BR was all that bad. It's hard to explain my thinking here, but I can elaborate more if you do not understand.

 

[sagefr0g]

I figured the 1:10 was good because of NO play all. I don't have that software, but I do practice often with exact casino rules and usually stop play and count the discard tray to make sure I am estimating correctly.



AC Rules: 8D, S17, DAS, DOA, NS, I shoot for 75% pen or better. I know I am using the calculators for CVDATA wrong, because the ROR you all say is way higher than what I was getting...I think it was around 15%.



Yes, in proportion to my session BR, 1,000.

rollem i don't see how you can have cvdata and not cvbj?

 

[Kasi]

but I can elaborate more if you do not understand.

Good idea lol.

Length of session? 1 hour? 8 hours? more? How much did you plan to bet at what TC's?

If you wonged in, at what count with how much and what count would you leave at, if not playing-all after wonging-in? If you wonged-in what was your plan to bet how much at what TC's if the count went more positive?

Maybe start with whatever way you played most often. Did you mostly just play all the hands?

I doubt if this is bad luck. It's seems alot more likely it's the inevitable result of having no plan whatsoever.

 

[rollem411]

rollem i don't see how you can have cvdata and not cvbj?

Do they come as a package or something?

Good idea lol.

Length of session? 1 hour? 8 hours? more? How much did you plan to bet at what TC's?

If you wonged in, at what count with how much and what count would you leave at, if not playing-all after wonging-in? If you wonged-in what was your plan to bet how much at what TC's if the count went more positive?

Maybe start with whatever way you played most often. Did you mostly just play all the hands?

I doubt if this is bad luck. It's seems alot more likely it's the inevitable result of having no plan whatsoever.

Session length varied from 2 hours to about 8 hours. In the 8 hour session, I wasn't strictly playing blackjack the entire time...so I was really only around the pit for about 4 hours of the entire session.

The last time I went I would start a fresh shoe and continue playing unless the count dropped below 0. Other times on that day I would wong in at +2. Pretty much the reason for the different play methods was because I was getting heads up play or me and one other person at a fresh shoe.

Now for when you say I don't have a set plan, I think I don't realize the importance of having a distinct plan. The first 2 times I went, I lost so I then began changing things up. Since then I would vary my bet spreads with each session. I just never really thought it was that big of a deal because I am playing with the advantage 90% of the time. I figured "If I can beat the game backcounting with a flat bet, then i can just change around my bet spreads each time I go". To sum it up, I underbet at higher TC, but I was still at an advantage so I thought everything would still work out over the long run...or am I mistaken?

 

[sagefr0g]

Do they come as a package or something?



........?

lol i don't really know. i just assummed they did.

 

[Kasi]

The last time I went I would start a fresh shoe and continue playing unless the count dropped below 0. Other times on that day I would wong in at +2. ...Now for when you say I don't have a set plan, I think I don't realize the importance of having a distinct plan. ....To sum it up, I underbet at higher TC, but I was still at an advantage so I thought everything would still work out over the long run...or am I mistaken?

Thanks for replying.

Anyway to me starting a fresh shoe and exiting at a certain point, say leaving if ever you get to TC-1 or whatever compared to entering at TC+2 and maybe never playing a single hand at less than that are 2 completely different games. The first would likely require a spread with alot of min units in the bankroll. Maybe 500 or 1000, just guessing. The second maybe only 100units and a much smaller spread kind of thing.

If your bets at high counts aren't enough to average out more frequent but lower bets at negative counts, you may not even be enjoying an overall advantage.

I'm sure you can see there are a million variations between those games.

Basically, it's why people use sims, free or otherwise, so they know what their plan is for each of the different ways and games they think they will be playing. And then just stick to it like a good little robot - I mean steely-nerved disciplined AP player, should lol.