My 1st Strategy - FREE!!!

[Sonny]

I can't help you man if you rely on your perspective to make sense of this. You were trained in Card Counting theology. I was not. It is a jump for you to see this.

This isn’t about me not being able to see your point of view. Believe me, I understand exactly where you’re coming from. I’ve heard dozens of people on this website talking about the very same system. This isn’t about perspectives or opinions here. This is about facts. I have been trained in game theory and mathematics so I understand the fundamentals of the game and how it behaves. With all due respect, you do not. Your ideas may sound good in your head but they simply don’t work when you try to apply them to the real world.

To say that a betting system can predict “streaks” or identify “hot” dealers is ridiculous. In fact, your definition of a hot dealer/player is not even accurate. Why would you think that getting a BJ will indicate the beginning of a winning streak? Where would you even get an idea like that? It simply isn’t true. Why would a dealer BJ be the only indication of a “hot” dealer? Why would a streak only happen if you are below your buy in? Why would you have better results without using surrender if it increases the house edge and the variance? If your only “internal indicator” is not effective then how is this different than random betting?

I have given you several reasons why your system does not get an advantage. I have explained exactly where your mistakes are. You can’t even describe why you think your system might work other than “it catches streaks.” I have asked you to clarify your ideas but you only respond “Just try it.” Even if it did work, you wouldn’t understand why. I see no reason that this system should be any different than any other system I’ve seen. It has all the classic elements of a progression system and nothing that the others don’t have. Your bets are based on previous wins/losses and you use a stop-loss limit. That’s all very typical and has been done hundreds of times before with no good results.

You claim that your system has been adequately tested but you do not provide any proof. The only evidence you give is anecdotal evidence that falls within the normal boundaries of the game. That is hardly convincing.

If you want to use this system then by all means do. If anyone else wants to use it or talk about it then feel free to discuss it here. I’m sure it is lots of fun to use. Just don’t claim that it is a winning system when it so obviously isn’t.

-Sonny-

 

[Reno Dude]

This isn’t about me not being able to see your point of view. Believe me, I understand exactly where you’re coming from. I’ve heard dozens of people on this website talking about the very same system. This isn’t about perspectives or opinions here. This is about facts. I have been trained in game theory and mathematics so I understand the fundamentals of the game and how it behaves. With all due respect, you do not. Your ideas may sound good in your head but they simply don’t work when you try to apply them to the real world.

To say that a betting system can predict “streaks” or identify “hot” dealers is ridiculous. In fact, your definition of a hot dealer/player is not even accurate. Why would you think that getting a BJ will indicate the beginning of a winning streak? Where would you even get an idea like that? It simply isn’t true. Why would a dealer BJ be the only indication of a “hot” dealer? Why would a streak only happen if you are below your buy in? Why would you have better results without using surrender if it increases the house edge and the variance? If your only “internal indicator” is not effective then how is this different than random betting?

I have given you several reasons why your system does not get an advantage. I have explained exactly where your mistakes are. You can’t even describe why you think your system might work other than “it catches streaks.” I have asked you to clarify your ideas but you only respond “Just try it.” Even if it did work, you wouldn’t understand why. I see no reason that this system should be any different than any other system I’ve seen. It has all the classic elements of a progression system and nothing that the others don’t have. Your bets are based on previous wins/losses and you use a stop-loss limit. That’s all very typical and has been done hundreds of times before with no good results.

You claim that your system has been adequately tested but you do not provide any proof. The only evidence you give is anecdotal evidence that falls within the normal boundaries of the game. That is hardly convincing.

If you want to use this system then by all means do. If anyone else wants to use it or talk about it then feel free to discuss it here. I’m sure it is lots of fun to use. Just don’t claim that it is a winning system when it so obviously isn’t.

-Sonny-

Amen Brother!!

 

[rdorange]

Challenge?

Have a challenge....

Licentia, What geographic part of the country are you in? Near any real live casinos (not on line and not just for fun/stats)? I am sure that wherever the closest casino is there is a counter from this message board that is willing to meet you at a table and compare. Put your money where your mouth is. I will be Biloxi next week. You anywhere close to that?

Your money and your system live, in a casino, next to a counter and his money.

 

[Licentia]

I just went on line and played, poor results.
Not worth pursuing!

Yep, that sounds credible. (Sarcasm)

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

Wow. That's cool that you were able to quit your job and do something full-time to make easy money using something that you created. How long have you been doing this for a living? How many hours do you put in per week? How much, on average, do you make per hour?

Okay I will tell you guys the truth. I have not told you yet because you will blame the strategy and it was not the fault of the strategy. It was my fault. After I had tested the strategy for two weeks until I was satisfied with it, I quit my job. I gambled in the city I lived in to great success for 3 weeks after I discovered it. I averaged probably $150 a day on $5 base bets on only 1 spot on the table. My best day was $325. But I had to move out of the place where I was living at the end of that month.

I therefore decided to move to another city and gamble there. But I spent way too much money in the process of moving to the new city, and when I was ready to gamble in the new city I only had $700 to my name. The base bet in that city was $5. I knew it was not a large enough bankroll... I didn't want to go to the trouble of getting a job though. I had my dream of not having to work anymore. I just wanted to win money. So I went to the casinos anyway.

Another problem was that I wasn't following my own rules. I would try to "predict" when the BlackJacks would come rather than follow my strategy. I would increase my bet in anticipation. This blew me a bunch of money I otherwise wouldn't have lost.

Also, the casinos were so packed full of people... It was a long weekend. Orientals everywhere with big wallets playing, not knowing how to play proper Basic Strategy. There were wait signs up so that you had to sign up at tables and would be notified when it was your turn. Of course when I did get a seat it was at a table where the dealer was hot as could be and my bankroll was depleting fast. $700 was not enough.

In the city where I started I could always jump from table to table to find one that was paying out. But I could no longer do that. Whenever I could get a table I got slaughtered. I was trying to win my money back in too large chunks also. That is why I say now to just try to win back 20x bet at a time. Had I done that I believe I would have been okay. I was trying to win back $250. My Double Downs and Splits failed like I never had seen.

That is why I began looking for a new strategy. I wanted something that gave a constant edge over the casino. It makes no difference though. In fact I think my new strategy requires exactly the same bankroll.

It was my fault and not the strategy! Mock me all you like but not my strategy. It works and I know in my heart that it does. I tested it day after day up to 14 hours a day. It never failed once!

Currently I am back in the city where I started, working to get a decent bankroll to play my new strategy. But I will still play the old one from time to time. I am excited about it again after posting it on here.

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

How about this - no. You strategies are bogus and now you've admited that you are looking to market a product. Usual system seller. Never fail - rubbish. All card games are just an exercise in probability distributions. Simple as that. You system will not work as it will fail to establish any mathematical edge. We could set up a simulation to prove it i'm sure, but as i've told the dozens of people that come along hawking their various progression systems (that what your system is - just looking for a specific indicator to ramp your bet) i don't need to re-invent the wheel to know it's round.
I mean do you honestly believe that the game cares if your bankroll is up or down? All you're doing is a simple chase your losses system. Doesn't matter how many bells and baubles you put on it, it's just the same.
You ramp your bet slowly and yes that means you don't hit up against the table limit very often, but it still doesn't change the fact that you lose. Your major problem is that you're diluided enough to believe that going on to a game simulator and test a system until you get bored proves it works - not by a long shot. If you're genuine get a decent piece of simulation software like the software QFIT offers and prove it over a simulation of your strategy over a reasonable sample of hands. I don't however believe you are genuine. I think you are just another system hawker trying to pawn worthless information on people who don't know enough to see through the bull$hit.
You might be better off trying just general gambling boards rather than card counting boards - more chance of getting a thread where you won't get shot down by people who actually know how to play the game.

RJT.

And people can't travel faster than 30 miles per hour or they will blow up. That's what the experts said anyway...

Yep, and I am not sincere. What terrible accusations!

Good for you! Move on then and forget about it. I will help the people who take the time to test it. People like you I am not interested in. Good luck to you!

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

This isn’t about me not being able to see your point of view. Believe me, I understand exactly where you’re coming from. I’ve heard dozens of people on this website talking about the very same system. This isn’t about perspectives or opinions here. This is about facts. I have been trained in game theory and mathematics so I understand the fundamentals of the game and how it behaves. With all due respect, you do not. Your ideas may sound good in your head but they simply don’t work when you try to apply them to the real world.

To say that a betting system can predict “streaks” or identify “hot” dealers is ridiculous. In fact, your definition of a hot dealer/player is not even accurate. Why would you think that getting a BJ will indicate the beginning of a winning streak? Where would you even get an idea like that? It simply isn’t true. Why would a dealer BJ be the only indication of a “hot” dealer? Why would a streak only happen if you are below your buy in? Why would you have better results without using surrender if it increases the house edge and the variance? If your only “internal indicator” is not effective then how is this different than random betting?

Thank you Sonny. I must say that your responses are the most detailed and are very well written. I can see why you are a moderator here!

I am very well versed in lottery theory. Ever heard of this guy: Ion Saliu? I have read his website back and forth and in and out. Yeah, he's a bit of a nutcase and his free Roulette strategies don't work, but he has a lot of very excellent math on his website. You should take a look. I won't post the link, just Google it.

I do not say that BJs are the only indicator. Perhaps I have said things wrong. Look at the test results post I made. Both myself and the dealer were up and down both getting BlackJacks. But I got my money back. Dude, I don't know how it works. It just works. And it works everytime. If it didn't work why would I go to all this grief arguing with you guys? I gave it away free, how can I charge anything for it?

When you say a line like this though...

Why would a streak only happen if you are below your buy in?

...it becomes clear to me that you do not understand what I am trying to explain to you. Words only work so well. Follow my instructions to test it and then you will understand it. You will learn by doing better than by reading.

You also say:

Why would you have better results without using surrender if it increases the house edge and the variance?

The simple answer is that when I am hot, my hard hands do not bust with the same frequency that they do when I am losing. When I am hot my bets are higher so I am winning a bunch of money that I would lose with Surrender. I takes no more than 5 hours of testing to see the system fail if I use Surrender, usually much less time. If I don't use Surrender it never fails, not after 100s of hours of clicking through hands at the fastest speeds humanly possible. I take great pride in knowing B.S. I wanted to use it. Happily though it works with my new strategy!

I have given you several reasons why your system does not get an advantage. I have explained exactly where your mistakes are. You can’t even describe why you think your system might work other than “it catches streaks.” I have asked you to clarify your ideas but you only respond “Just try it.” Even if it did work, you wouldn’t understand why. I see no reason that this system should be any different than any other system I’ve seen. It has all the classic elements of a progression system and nothing that the others don’t have. Your bets are based on previous wins/losses and you use a stop-loss limit. That’s all very typical and has been done hundreds of times before with no good results.

You claim that your system has been adequately tested but you do not provide any proof. The only evidence you give is anecdotal evidence that falls within the normal boundaries of the game. That is hardly convincing.

If you want to use this system then by all means do. If anyone else wants to use it or talk about it then feel free to discuss it here. I’m sure it is lots of fun to use. Just don’t claim that it is a winning system when it so obviously isn’t.

-Sonny-

I DO understand why the strategy works. When I am losing my bets are low and when I am winning my bets are high. Exactly how card counting works. That is the only way any strategy can work.

All I can say is that you are about to make a huge mistake dismissing this without trying it. It's no loss to me though. It's your loss.

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

Have a challenge....

Licentia, What geographic part of the country are you in? Near any real live casinos (not on line and not just for fun/stats)? I am sure that wherever the closest casino is there is a counter from this message board that is willing to meet you at a table and compare. Put your money where your mouth is. I will be Biloxi next week. You anywhere close to that?

Your money and your system live, in a casino, next to a counter and his money.

I am not giving away any details of who I am or where I live. That is clear from my first post. However when I do arrive in Vegas or Atlantic City I will certainly take you guys up on that!

Licentia.

 

[jimmtech]

I understand the frustration.

I bought a course teaching basic Hi-Lo counting and decided it was too tough and not worth the effort.

I got a book called "Win Without Counting" and starting playing - I won 6 sessions in a row! Then I won 10 out 12 sessions - in just a couple of weeks I turned $200 into $2000. I thought I was hot sh*t! I made plans on how to quit my job and start my new life.

I went to Atlantic city with my new BR and a big dream - I won a couple sessions and then I could not win anything at all! I followed the indicators exactly, I went to casino after casino and this unbeatable system was now not working at all!

I was confounded as to why playing this system sometimes worked with computer games, but always won in the casino, well now it didn't even work there and I lost a lot of money.

I experimented with many many systems and methods - Dahl, Silverthorne, Sailu, positive, negative, combo progressions, and tried tweaking each one, with CVBJ and also in casinos.

My most sucessfull run was with this method: Bet 1 unit until one of the following happens: 1) I lose 4 in row or 2) I bust twice in row or 3) dealer gets 21 in any form, and then bet 3 and then 6 units. Playing like this over 6 months, I worked up to over $7000 in some 40 casino visits.

Anyone who has put his heart, soul, commitment and hard-earned money into researching and developing a new methodology and has applied it to make money simply cannot be dissuaded.

In my case, I would have been deeply offended and insulted if anyone had doubted me - how dare could you have the audacity to question my results when I turned a couple hundred into $7000 in less than 6 months! I had proof! I had repeatable results! I had CASH!

Well, guess what - my system stopped working. I refused to believe that the universe could be so cruel as to let me win all this money and then it did not work any more. I kept playing. I kept trying. The bankroll dwidled away.

I learned Hi-Lo and I am now studying AOII and Ace Prediction.

I still yearn for the quick and easy method although my yeanings are dwindling.

You must buy CVBJ from Qfit. Anyone who is serious about BJ uses this or is familiar with it - you can select any number of decks, players, burn cards, count distribution, DAS, RSA, H17, penetration,etc. It can made made to mimic actual casino conditions more accurately than anything else. There simply is no comparison to Hoyle.

I played with your system on CVBJ til 4:30 in the morning last night. I marched from a starting BR of $1000 and gave up at minus $400, losing a total of $1400 over 1997 hands! I have the actual playing logs that CVBJ keeps, as well as specific graphs and analysis of win rates, hand counts, streaks, etc, if anyone would like to see them. Another fantastic feature of CVBJ.

I would not invest any money in a casino with any method that was not consistently repeatable through thousands of hands played in CVBJ.

My last system tweaking - practicing on CVBJ I was able to win over 30 sessions in a row! Then it just stopped working.

Look at the charts of team player income by quarter in Blackjack Attack 3 - there are ups and downs - wins and losses - but over many sessions highly profitable.

Please practice on CVBJ, and have others do the same - if my results are just a fluke, well maybe I am the one guy on earth who cannot make your system work.

By the way, you can still be a successfull bookseller with a faulty system - Win without Counting and Dahls book are still available at bookstores today - again many methods can be applied and used to show a handsome profit, but because BJ is a negative expectation game, the hard cold statistics will eventually catch up you - that's why card counting, shuffle tracking and Ace prediction work - because they provide reliable indication of what is coming next - whether that information is general (the count, or the segment) or specific (which card is coming next).

I'm just a guy who has won and lost a lot of money and is still learning. There are many seasoned vets here (like Sonny) whose patiently communicated advise would be well heeded.

 

[fwb]

I just tried your system on a computer blackjack game. Started with $200, $5 bet base. Ended up losing it all after about 20 minutes. I came to the conclusion that your method is simply a very slow negative progression. Negative progressions tell you to look at your bankroll every hand and if it is negative, increase your bet. Your system simply waits to until you get a blackjack, then you look at your bankroll and increase your bet if it's negative. Same thing, just a lot slower (adjusting your bankroll every 30 or so hands rather than every hand). When I got negative, I found as I increased my bet with each blackjack I got, I just started approaching 0 faster.

Your success is simply a result of positive variance. Playing online with basic strategy alone I was able to turn $80 into $4000 over three sessions. Yet I cannot claim basic strategy is a "free win" because I know the statistics tell me otherwise, and I don't see any major casinos going out of business any time soon.

Recommended article: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
If you're still confident your strategy works, you can make $20,000 from the author's challenge. Let us know how you do

 

[RJT]

Yep, that sounds credible. (Sarcasm)

Licentia.

What i love is that you ignore anyone who trys to show you that your system's a bommer. Have fun using your system, just don't come hawking your book here if you ever find someone to publish it.

RJT.

 

[TheProdigy]

Have a challenge....

Licentia, What geographic part of the country are you in? Near any real live casinos (not on line and not just for fun/stats)? I am sure that wherever the closest casino is there is a counter from this message board that is willing to meet you at a table and compare. Put your money where your mouth is. I will be Biloxi next week. You anywhere close to that?

Your money and your system live, in a casino, next to a counter and his money.

This would not prove anything. The short-term results would not be statictically significant.

I think poeple have heard enough from both sides to make a good decision about his system.

 

[Sonny]

This would not prove anything. The short-term results would not be statictically significant.

I think people have heard enough from both sides to make a good decision about his system.

I agree with both points. I’m going to close this thread. If anyone wants to discuss this system further they can start a new thread (or read the articles in the sticky thread at the top of this forum). I think everyone has made their points and any other posts would just get buried at the bottom of a long, repetitive thread.

-Sonny-