EV is independent of variance/RoR; the 1-2% is average, over long-term. There will be PLENTY of ups and downs in the meantime.
(Yes, technically they are connected when choosing betting strategy, but not for the purposes of this question.)
My Blackjack Story (blog)
- Thread starter TakingTheHouse
- Start date
EV is independent of variance/RoR; the 1-2% is average, over long-term. There will be PLENTY of ups and downs in the meantime.
(Yes, technically they are connected when choosing betting strategy, but not for the purposes of this question.)
ihate17
Well-Known Member
1-2% is always there but how to view it
Things like variance and your ROR can be extreme in a short period of time but over a long period will level out, that is if you did not reach a ruin point and went bankrupt before the long term.
So, session by session you really do not see that edge you have, which is a big reason why only the highly bankrolled experts or teams can ever expect to make a living at blackjack but even there they may make 40,000 one month, lose 20,000 the next for a net of 10 per month. Taking that further, they easily could have several losing months or even a losing year easily enough.
Play your lifetime, play good games with minimal mistakes, do not steam and do not underbet either and then add it all up and you will have your edge but there will be days you leave the casino wondering, "what edge."
ihate17
Things like variance and your ROR can be extreme in a short period of time but over a long period will level out, that is if you did not reach a ruin point and went bankrupt before the long term.
So, session by session you really do not see that edge you have, which is a big reason why only the highly bankrolled experts or teams can ever expect to make a living at blackjack but even there they may make 40,000 one month, lose 20,000 the next for a net of 10 per month. Taking that further, they easily could have several losing months or even a losing year easily enough.
Play your lifetime, play good games with minimal mistakes, do not steam and do not underbet either and then add it all up and you will have your edge but there will be days you leave the casino wondering, "what edge."
ihate17
Then think how many players does the casino have? Because each of their players is playing for the casino and each hand played takes them closer to their long-run EV.
When you can create millions of repetitions at a time and are adequitely bankrolled the small advantage that you get from counting is significant. But getting that many repetitions is very difficult and time consuming - hence why many players turn to team play.
Solo-play is possible, but be prepared for a long haul.
RJT.
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
Yes it takes them to time to get into the long run and they have more action in a night than we could hope for in a year but their goals are much different than ours. Our goal isnt to make 30 million PROFIT in a month. Thats not even our lifetime goal. Im not saying we are not in for a long haul but it diffinatley is worth it if you enjoy playing and making some money on the side.
Think of 1-2% at a black chip level theres bigtime money to be made
Agreed, but the variance on black chip play is the same as the variance on green or red chip play (in proportion to your stake at each level) and if you are just out to make "some money on the side" that variance is not something to be played down. It is quite possible for a casual player to have a losing year even when they do everything right.
To use the earnings of a casino as an example of how powerful a small advantage can be is mis-leading as they have other advantages over the average counter than the house edge.
I'm not saying it's not worth the effort - i've made a very comfortable sum this year - i'm just trying to add a little perspective.
RJT.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
The casino edge
Your casino might offer a blackjack game with a house edge of less than .5% but that edge is based upon someone playing perfect basic strategy. Casinos would not offer a game with that low of an edge with all of their overhead expenses if people actually did play basic strategy.
So while you may eek out a 1-2% edge, the casino is making about 3% on their blackjack games after accounting for whatever you skim off their top. Just watch the other players at your table and you see one reason why it is much easier for the casino to make money than for you.
Also, and more importantly, the casino has many tables and is open 24/7 in most cases, so their edge is spread out covering that one table where the rack might be dumped. They are also always operating in the long run.
ihate17
Your casino might offer a blackjack game with a house edge of less than .5% but that edge is based upon someone playing perfect basic strategy. Casinos would not offer a game with that low of an edge with all of their overhead expenses if people actually did play basic strategy.
So while you may eek out a 1-2% edge, the casino is making about 3% on their blackjack games after accounting for whatever you skim off their top. Just watch the other players at your table and you see one reason why it is much easier for the casino to make money than for you.
Also, and more importantly, the casino has many tables and is open 24/7 in most cases, so their edge is spread out covering that one table where the rack might be dumped. They are also always operating in the long run.
ihate17
The only thing is the casino's long run comes within a half a day. They are highly unlikely to be down after 12 hours of play having multiple tables being played. Doesn't really seem like a long run, yet it really is if you look at the big picture. I just wish it were that easy for me.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Never that easy
A few years ago I would have said to you that the only way it could be that easy for you would be to open your own casino. Today, even that is not necessarily true.
Casinos can and do lose money. Not because they are losing on the slots or tables but because of their overhead which includes servicing debt.
There again, why should they be special (they thought they were recession proof), I figure between what the value of my home, my rental homes and my stock investments went down, I have lost over 2 million on paper since the markets turned bad. On the justification side, every home I own was bought more than 12 years ago and had appreciated more than it should have.
ihate17
A few years ago I would have said to you that the only way it could be that easy for you would be to open your own casino. Today, even that is not necessarily true.
Casinos can and do lose money. Not because they are losing on the slots or tables but because of their overhead which includes servicing debt.
There again, why should they be special (they thought they were recession proof), I figure between what the value of my home, my rental homes and my stock investments went down, I have lost over 2 million on paper since the markets turned bad. On the justification side, every home I own was bought more than 12 years ago and had appreciated more than it should have.
ihate17
I agree completely that a casino could lose money due to overhead expenses. I was mostly just talking about the blackjack aspect of the casino, not including any other games. I was trying to make the comparison between our long run and the casino long run in blackjack so others can see the major difference and the dedication one must have to be successful at this game.