My first 50 hours officially counting cards.

JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
Started off with $9,100. I am at about $4,300 right now. Generated about 2k worth of EV. Started with an RoR of 17%. Adjusted to 7% now 12% ish.
Absolute hell, my back hurts from standing up and sitting down so much. I am at a loss for words for how I feel when I think about how many hours it's going to take me to recuperate my loss.
I'm going to keep playing until I blow through the entire bank. Still, $4,300 to go. I feel like I'm just going through the motions. High true count, put my money down, lose, repeat.
I should note that I have played for 100 hours or so before this and have won roughly about what I just lost over the course of this 50 hours but there's now way to know for sure since I didn't keep records.
 
JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
dogman_1234 said:
Welcome to Blackjack: The game of high volatility and absolute misery!

Personally, your ROR is *way* too high for my liking. Are you readjusting your betting schedule to accommodate a lower ROR?

This is a fatal outlook! Also, you are only looking at about 50 hours; so, what...5000 hands roughly? You haven't reached N_0 yet.
Take a look at *how* you are betting. Are you over-betting at high counts? Are you properly kelly betting? Are you sure you have the correct RC/TC when counting? Are you applying index departures optimally? Consider playing better games alongside Wonging?


Please think about starting record keeping. Especially for tax purposes!
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Thank you for your advice. I have started keeping records for the past 50 hours but it doesn't look like there's going to be much to tax.
I started off playing all and lost $4000 immediately then I changed the strategy to be more conservative. Right now my risk is about 12% without taking expenses into account.
If I am making a mistake it's a counting mistake. Keeping the true count correctly. My deviations are solid, BS is solid, and TC conversion fine. I may be missing some deviations and my TC conversion might not be spot on since I use full deck resolution but that's not losing me the money. I have been working on keeping my running count much more with Blackjack apprenticeship App and training on Casino Verite. So far I have made a few mistakes with the true count so that may be my problem, especially in this busy casino environment where I could be trying to hold a conversation. It's strange to think about what I may be doing wrong though. The previous 100 hours I crushed it on games that were identical and never thought twice about my ability but now that I'm going through this everything is in question.
 
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Stevel96a1

Banned
Welcome to blackjack in a nutshell, you too will be added to my memory of Joels,Jimmtechs, and billys having said that have you tried FP video poker machines?

if you must focus on blackjack use the KO count full it will gain EV followed by a positive progression betting system instead of 1-10
try 30-60-90 and if you lose revert back to 30 if you win move to 60 very much like a 1-2-3 positive system, it worked very well on casino verite 3.0
riverboat series blackjack and masqueblackjack try it you might like it i won a cool grand off CV android shuffle with 250 hands played with that system

but yea like Dogman said 9 grand won't cut it at the 10$ tables mabbey at the 5$ tables i feel bad for ya if you use 1-10 spread with 100 max bets cause the losing streaks are powerful and long lasting in BJ
 
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Stevel96a1

Banned
also i hope are not gambling with rent money or inherent money, i tried ko full 1-10 spread i blew thru 1600$ in 162 hands on masque BJ i assume thats what your going through right now just longer lasting again if count is -4 bet 30 if count still positive and a win bet 60 and stays positive and win bet 90
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
JohnCrover said:
Started off with $9,100. I am at about $4,300 right now. Generated about 2k worth of EV. Started with an RoR of 17%. Adjusted to 7% now 12% ish.
Absolute hell, my back hurts from standing up and sitting down so much. I am at a loss for words for how I feel when I think about how many hours it's going to take me to recuperate my loss.
I'm going to keep playing until I blow through the entire bank. Still, $4,300 to go. I feel like I'm just going through the motions. High true count, put my money down, lose, repeat.
I should note that I have played for 100 hours or so before this and have won roughly about what I just lost over the course of this 50 hours but there's now way to know for sure since I didn't keep records.
Click to expand...
I am sorry to hear how it is going for you. There really isn't enough info in this post to say too much. Just for curiosity reasons, I would like to know more about your game. Rules and conditions you are playing? Spread and ramp? Play all or some variation of wong out or in? Is any of this provided somewhere, like maybe another thread?

I mean, for me, $2000 of EV is about a week and a half. I try to accumulate $1500 EV a week. So losing what $4800 in a week and a half? Happens to me all the time. I lose that in a day very frequently. But that is really apples to oranges as I am sure we are not playing close to the same levels. That is why I would like to know more details.

I want to comment on your attitude. :oops: Yikes! I mean I sort of appreciate that you are willing to keep going (assuming you are playing a winning game, which is what I want to find out with more details from you). I see many players, especially newish, that start out with such and such a bankroll, configure a game plan, spread, ramps plan of attack, claiming such and such RoR. Then after losing part of that bankroll, they are unwilling to continue. Well that means they were NEVER playing to that full bankroll and were in fact playing to a much higher RoR. Don't get me wrong, I know if that is all the money you have or even just very important to you and hard to replace, it is mentally difficult to push forward. I am just saying a player needs to be honest with himself from the beginning.

So while I appreciate that you are in fact pushing forward playing with the entire BR that you initially set out, this defeatist attitude, that you are just going to keep going to you lose it all sucks! :( I don't exactly know how your mental state plays into things. I am relatively sure that having a negative attitude doesn't change the math, :rolleyes:, but it just might make you susceptible to more mistakes and losing discipline with things like "chasing losses".

I can feel your pain though. I have experienced the ups and downs and I have been where I am getting kind of frustrated with an extended losing period and all of the sudden things change, almost at the snap of a finger. It's a strange game like that.

Here is a little story from my experiences. Without checking records, I am going to say it was 2013, maybe 2014. The year starts out very negative. I am down 32k in early April. Not the worst backward slide I have experienced but it might have been at the time. It was definitely the worst start to a year I have had yet. So everything is going wrong. I just seem to lose every max bet, every double down. Not "every" of course, but far greater than my share and it sure felt like "every". That's what happens when it is going bad. I keep pushing on, day after day and let me tell you it becomes harder to get motivated during these types of runs.

Next thing you know I had a decent winning day. Then a couple in a row. Pretty good week. The next thing I knew I was in the midst of a 5 week 115k winning period. And I have never experienced another such period in such a short time...actually nothing even close. Now I was literally winning every max bet and double down or so it seemed. I was winning so fast and furious that I had to take a break for a couple weeks, sort of back myself off, just to avoid drawing too much heat and scrutiny.

Second half of the year I won about 30k, and ended the year at about 113k profit, which was I believe my second best year. It also means my entire years profit came during those 5 weeks. o_O My point: You just never know with this game. You don't know when things are going to turn and they can do so on a dime. The variance is great. Anyone who doesn't understand this doesn't understand this this game. All you can do is play a winning game, trust in the math and be patient. But I will tell you that going through a couple of these swings a few times helps a great deal. You begin to know what to expect.
 
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JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
KewlJ said:
I am sorry to hear how it is going for you. There really isn't enough info in this post to say too much. Just for curiosity reasons, I would like to know more about your game. Rules and conditions you are playing? Spread and ramp? Play all or some variation of wong out or in? Is any of this provided somewhere, like maybe another thread?

I mean, for me, $2000 of EV is about a week and a half. I try to accumulate $1500 EV a week. So losing what $4800 in a week and a half? Happens to me all the time. I lose that in a day very frequently. But that is really apples to oranges as I am sure we are not playing close to the same levels. That is why I would like to know more details.

I want to comment on your attitude. :oops: Yikes! I mean I sort of appreciate that you are willing to keep going (assuming you are playing a winning game, which is what I want to find out with more details from you). I see many players, especially newish, that start out with such and such a bankroll, configure a game plan, spread, ramps plan of attack, claiming such and such RoR. Then after losing part of that bankroll, they are unwilling to continue. Well that means they were NEVER playing to that full bankroll and were in fact playing to a much higher RoR. Don't get me wrong, I know if that is all the money you have or even just very important to you and hard to replace, it is mentally difficult to push forward. I am just saying a player needs to be honest with himself from the beginning.

So while I appreciate that you are in fact pushing forward playing with the entire BR that you initially set out, this defeatist attitude, that you are just going to keep going to you lose it all sucks! :( I don't exactly know how your mental state plays into things. I am relatively sure that having a negative attitude doesn't change the math, :rolleyes:, but it just might make you susceptible to more mistakes and losing discipline with things like "chasing losses".

I can feel your pain though. I have experienced the ups and downs and I have been where I am getting kind of frustrated with an extended losing period and all of the sudden things change, almost at the snap of a finger. It's a strange game like that.

Here is a little story from my experiences. Without checking records, I am going to say it was 2013, maybe 2014. The year starts out very negative. I am down 32k in early April. Not the worst backward slide I have experienced but it might have been at the time. It was definitely the worst start to a year I have had yet. So everything is going wrong. I just seem to lose every max bet, every double down. Not "every" of course, but far greater than my share and it sure felt like "every". That's what happens when it is going bad. I keep pushing on, day after day and let me tell you it becomes harder to get motivated during these types of runs.

Next thing you know I had a decent winning day. Then a couple in a row. Pretty good week. The next thing I knew I was in the midst of a 5 week 115k winning period. And I have never experienced another such period in such a short time...actually nothing even close. Now I was literally winning every max bet and double down or so it seemed. I was winning so fast and furious that I had to take a break for a couple weeks, sort of back myself off, just to avoid drawing too much heat and scrutiny.

Second half of the year I won about 30k, and ended the year at about 113k profit, which was I believe my second best year. It also means my entire years profit came during those 5 weeks. o_O My point: You just never know with this game. You don't know when things are going to turn and they can do so on a dime. The variance is great. Anyone who doesn't understand this doesn't understand this this game. All you can do is play a winning game, trust in the math and be patient. But I will tell you that going through a couple of these swings a few times helps a great deal. You begin to know what to expect.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the response. I don't want to give too much detail about how I'm playing but I lost the bulk of the BR playing a higher stakes game with a 17% RoR, probably a little higher since I don't play as perfectly as CVCX, maybe a little lower because I use a few more indices than what I used in the sim, not sure.
I have adjusted my play to a style that lowers my RoR to roughly 6%, now roughly 11%. The stakes I'm playing are small. I started out with 9k.
My indices are basically just the I18 with some surrenders added. I'm using the Hi-lo count.
In terms of chasing, I don't think I have been doing a great deal of it. Considering I have lowered my stakes since I started. Sometimes I will ramp my bets slightly earlier at a high TC 1 instead of a TC 2. Sometimes I will bet slightly more in TC 4+ TC 5+, but that's because I have ran the sim and N0 drops with those bets, EV increases, and risk is only marginally higher.
If there's an error with my game it has to do with keeping the running count, but even then it seems a little off for that to be the problem. It has never been a problem in the previous 100 hours (that I know of). I can count down decks easily and quickly while playing at the same time. I can keep count on BJA trainer on the second quickest setting, and with full deck checks. I have also been playing around on Casino Verite and my play has been approved there, making a total of $5 worth of mistakes by not taking insurance right at index once and not splitting 10 10 right at index once. Luckily I have been winning big on Casino Verite? -.-
If there's a problem I think it has something to do with the actual live casino environment and not the actual fundamentals. BS, the indexes I use, my ramp, TC conversion is solid, my keeping the running count in the live environment might be the problem.
Then again you don't know what you don't know so if anyone wants to evaluate my play I welcome it.
Edit: I would also like to add that yes I'm just going to play out the rest of the money. I will do my best to keep risk low while I can but there's going to be a breaking point to where the expenses to get to and from the casino as well as life expenses are going to force my hand to do something. Whether that be play for boom or bust or find another route. I will cross that bridge when I get there but with how things have been going it has been something I have meen thinking long and hard about.
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
What I was most interested in when I said more details or information, was your max bet and ramp. The reason being many newer and less experienced guys are ramping up too slowly, not getting their max or top wager out to TC of +6, TC+8, or even higher. Doing this makes those max bets almost ineffective, because the frequencies occur far too infrequently. It is essentially playing with a much smaller spread and not even realizing it. An essential spread that might not even be a winning game.

Let me try to explain it like this. A player says "I am spreading 1-12 on a 6 deck game". Common wisdom says that is a good spread and should provide a winning game. But if those max bets aren't being played until TC's of say +8, or +10, that is not really a 1-12 spread. It is essentially a much smaller spread. Probably closer to whatever you are betting at TC +4. So that is what I was trying to figure out and be sure wasn't your problem. If you want to be secretive about your spread and ramp, that is fine, but it does make it very difficult for anyone to offer any kind of advice if we are left guessing at these things.
 
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Stevel96a1

Banned
is it all in 1 casino? how is it possible they are not banning you from counting? do they assume or think you are a wanna be card counting and donating your savings or inherence money to the house? Yikes! that sounds god awful anywho i hope things turn around, i gave up card counting after losing 1400 or 1600$ cold cash in under 164 hands on masque blackjack and i lose (15-75 spread) ko full and i lost 500 or 1,000 on riverboat blackjack series on hand 634# windows 98,, funny thing is i always do ok on casino verite LOL so much for mimicing real life shuffles

man you must be rich to blow through 9k and keep goin i wish Kooljay would take you under his wing and until you double your bankroll 3 times or more hehe
 
JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
, e
KewlJ said:
What I was most interested in when I said more details or information, was your max bet and ramp. The reason being many newer and less experienced guys are ramping up too slowly, not getting their max or top wager out to TC of +6, TC+8, or even higher. Doing this makes those max bets almost ineffective, because the frequencies occur far too infrequently. It is essentially playing with a much smaller spread and not even realizing it. An essential spread that might not even be a winning game.

Let me try to explain it like this. A player says "I am spreading 1-12 on a 6 deck game". Common wisdom says that is a good spread and should provide a winning game. But if those max bets aren't being played until TC's of say +8, or +10, that is not really a 1-12 spread. It is essentially a much smaller spread. Probably closer to whatever you are betting at TC +4. So that is what I was trying to figure out and be sure wasn't your problem. If you want to be secretive about your spread and ramp, that is fine, but it does make it very difficult for anyone to offer any kind of advice if we are left guessing at these things.
Click to expand...
Right, I actually know a guy who broke even for the first year he played BJ because he didn't enough in the 6 deck shoe games I think he was playing.
That wouldn't be my mistake. My ramp is 1-10 with a max bet out there at TC 4, sometimes a 1-16 spread when I could get away with it. That is when I was playing all. Now I am doing a lot of wonging entering in at high TC's of +1, (1.6,1.7,etc.) but usually at TC2. Then I will use a modest 1-3 spread, topping out at TC 4 or 5.
Edit: Thanks again for the reply. I will let ya'll know how things go as I keep on moving forward. I can't play for the immediate future, unfortunately, because I am traveling to a high-quality game somewhere in the country in hopes I can rebound, and I can't risk losing anymore before the trip so I have a little bit of downtime.
 
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Stevel96a1

Banned
You are a brave man a loser may tell one or 2 but a winner tells 10 or 20
I agree with kooljay dont look at it as defeat cause if you do you already lost are you playing 10 to 100$ spread? Stand 17 late surrender? I remember watching holy rollers and 1 team member said i just won 74k in 6 hours why cant tjat be us hehe anyway 8 deck 6/8pent s17 ls is a beatable game keep goin John we believe in you
 
JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
Stevel96a1 said:
You are a brave man a loser may tell one or 2 but a winner tells 10 or 20
I agree with kooljay dont look at it as defeat cause if you do you already lost are you playing 10 to 100$ spread? Stand 17 late surrender? I remember watching holy rollers and 1 team member said i just won 74k in 6 hours why cant tjat be us hehe anyway 8 deck 6/8pent s17 ls is a beatable game keep goin John we believe in you
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I don't want to give too much away from the game I'm playing right now but I will be playing a very high-quality game soon.
 
B

bwssr

Active Member
Any updates? I started playing a year ago. Did pretty good at 1st but have hit a dry spell. I am working on my betting getting that down and doing some wonging too.
 
K

kcchiefsfan1982

Well-Known Member
My first year (2019), with a $5,000 bank roll...I played for 650 hours and lost $300.

So far this year, I have played for 60 hours and I am down $500.

Last night, my biggest bet was $70, but the dealer got the BJ, not me.

The other day, I had 9,2 against dealer 10. I double down and get the 8 card for 19....Dealer had another 10, for a total of 20.

Such is life.

In my hundreds of hours, I have not had a MAJOR positive swing. But...just got to keep playing. The life of a red chipper!

At least I get the following from Boyd casinos this year:

12 free nights in vegas, with $300 on food
4 free nights in Bahamas
1 cruise to Caribbean.
 
L

LC Larry

Well-Known Member
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
My first year (2019), with a $5,000 bank roll...I played for 650 hours and lost $300.

So far this year, I have played for 60 hours and I am down $500....


12 free nights in vegas, with $300 on food
4 free nights in Bahamas
1 cruise to Caribbean.
Click to expand...
Many people pay more than $800 for those deals.
 
D

DSchles

Well-Known Member
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
My first year (2019), with a $5,000 bank roll...I played for 650 hours and lost $300.

So far this year, I have played for 60 hours and I am down $500.

Last night, my biggest bet was $70, but the dealer got the BJ, not me.

The other day, I had 9,2 against dealer 10. I double down and get the 8 card for 19....Dealer had another 10, for a total of 20.

Such is life.

In my hundreds of hours, I have not had a MAJOR positive swing. But...just got to keep playing. The life of a red chipper!

At least I get the following from Boyd casinos this year:

12 free nights in vegas, with $300 on food
4 free nights in Bahamas
1 cruise to Caribbean.
Click to expand...
May I ask, for your 650 hours, in general, what type of game(s) you played against and what your spread was. It is extremely unusual to play for that many hours and to still be losing. (See Table 2.2, at the bottom of page 21 of BJA3, if you have it.)

Don
 
K

kcchiefsfan1982

Well-Known Member
DSchles said:
May I ask, for your 650 hours, in general, what type of game(s) you played against and what your spread was. It is extremely unusual to play for that many hours and to still be losing. (See Table 2.2, at the bottom of page 21 of BJA3, if you have it.)

Don
Click to expand...
Bet spread $5 to $50.....6 deck, 85% pen, DAS, dealer hits soft 17, resplit up to 4 times, cannot resplit aces. I know how unlikely it is...but if you could see the #$%$ that I saw that defied logic....well...you had to be there lol.

The amount of dealer BJs to mine were unreal. I always knew my count is good because I am really good at betting high when the dealer gets BJ or 2 card 20.

Last night was a replay of my short career...True +3 count....i had $70 out actually...dealer....back door black jack, I had 10,9. HAHA!

Got to do another year. No way I can have a repeat of 2019.
 
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