My nice flat bet day

[Kasi]

N0. (N-zero) A mathematical term that reflects the number of hands required to be played with a certain set of rules and strategy before the player is ahead by at least one standard deviation.

Or, as Guynoire so eloquently put it cutting thru all my layers of crap and getting to the point lol, (1.11/-.0039)^2=81006 lol.

What's so hard to see if this neg EV BS player is still even after 81006 rounds he has exceeded his EV by 1 SD and that his EV and 1 SD are the same amount of dollars?

So I'd add to "before the player is ahead (of EV) by at least one standard deviation"

"and his EV equals 1 SD".

But, maybe like you say, N0 really only applies to a +EV game as a measurement of a counter getting to "longrun" and winning money forever. A BS player doesn't have a long run where he will win money forever. That's why it's meaningless in a CVCX sim for a flat-bettor - it would imply a BS player still even after 81000 hands has a good chance of winning money forever.

 

[sagefr0g]

Or, as Guynoire so eloquently put it cutting thru all my layers of crap and getting to the point lol, (1.11/-.0039)^2=81006 lol.

What's so hard to see if this neg EV BS player is still even after 81006 rounds he has exceeded his EV by 1 SD and that his EV and 1 SD are the same amount of dollars?

So I'd add to "before the player is ahead (of EV) by at least one standard deviation"

"and his EV equals 1 SD".

But, maybe like you say, N0 really only applies to a +EV game as a measurement of a counter getting to "longrun" and winning money forever. A BS player doesn't have a long run where he will win money forever. That's why it's meaningless in a CVCX sim for a flat-bettor - it would imply a BS player still even after 81000 hands has a good chance of winning money forever.

ok so i'm just guessing but the idea of a counter getting to "longrun" and winning money forever (with respect to N0) has longrun in quotes for a good reason. point being i'm gonna guess, is that perhaps the word 'maybe' should'a been added to the phrase, lol. or maybe another way of saying it would be the counter has really, really good chances of winning money forever.
so if my guess is right, then i'd further guess the flat betting basic strategy player reaching his N0 is gonna maybe lose money forever as well or his chances at that point of not getting his head above water are slim, unless he changes his ways.

so assumming that way of looking at it is right, the question becomes does this mean a flat betting basic strategy player has just so much rope to hang himself with and then for all intents and purposes his goose is cooked?
like say some basic strategy only flat betting player manages to make it 80,000 rounds or so and is even. is it now all of a sudden like a phase change lol sort of thing and he's virtually pre-ordained to lose, lose, lose with virtually no hope of staying even or getting at all ahead?
to me that wouldn't seem sensible or realistic. i mean heck as far as statistics is concerned it could be some other similiar player that has such an outcome and our hero might just have more favorable outcomes.
i guess the answer would be yeah it's possible but not likely?

 

[Kasi]

like say some basic strategy only flat betting player manages to make it 80,000 rounds or so and is even. is it now all of a sudden like a phase change lol sort of thing and he's virtually pre-ordained to lose, lose, lose with virtually no hope of staying even or getting at all ahead?
to me that wouldn't seem sensible or realistic.

He's always pre-ordained to lose his original roll - it's just a matter of when.

If he's lasted 80,000 rounds and still even, he's just extended his demise by 80000 rounds since he still has exactly what he started with 80,000 rounds ago.

Whether he began with a 100 unit roll or a 1MM unit roll, his N0 is still 81000
rounds - his EV in units per round and SD in units per round remain the same.

His chances of being able to play that long aren't the same though with a 100 unit roll vs a 1MM unit roll.

The ratio of EV to SD never changes for a flat-bet BS player. For an AP guy it does.

It's like I just looked at 16000 hands of internet play. My bet varied from $1 to $300 in a constant -EV environment. Had I bet $1 per hand, I would have lost $124.50. Actually I made, with my black voodoo magic lol, $3302.50. If I chose to bet $1/hand from that point forward it would be 600,000+ more rounds before I'd expect to be back to even with an extra 3300 units in my roll.

But that's what voodoo is all about - variation in bet.

Flatbetting $1 my avg bet might have been $1.12/hd. Actually my avg bet was $7.68. Flatbetting I would have wagered $17,500. Actually I wagered $122K.

"Eventually" I'd lose it all but not for a pretty long time.

Flat-betting, my results were just about exactly where they were expected to be.

Did I ever achieve N0? I doubt it since that assumes playing the same way?

How does one adjust N0 for varying bet sizes? You adjust the size, it's a different N0?

Can anyone tell me what my N0 was if I can tell them how many rounds I played at what initial bet?