Myths in the Movie 21

[sagefr0g]

I'm afraid no matter what you do, you'll probably end up with an ugly duckling instead of a black swan. On the other hand, without even investing $5, you may end up with a black swan, quite possibly without even looking for one. What?

maybe one point is if you do get an ugly duckling (a bad black swan) what do you do about it or before hand how do you prepare for it? or maybe how do you position your self so as to not be likely to get one? what do you do if your stuck with one? just how bad may the lil critter be? lol.

the black swan (the good black swan) on the other hand you play it conversly. what do you do about it or before hand how do you prepare for it?
or maybe how do you position your self so as to be likely to get one? what do you do with one once you get it? just how good is it and what would you risk to get it?

all that with out even knowing what the heck it is or when it's comming. just knowing that the black swan is what you don't know and it's gonna be significant and it's gonna be unpredictable.

and here's something i'll go out on a limb and say. i don't think a black swan is something an AP is ever gonna see. i think you gotta take a gamble if your ever gonna see one in a casino. not these mini gambles that AP's take hand after hand. i'm talkin risk here. how, when i haven't the foggiest.

Consider the Creator. Grant Him all the usual attributes. He decides to create Sagefr0g. Where do I put him? What place, what time, what circumstances. Being all-loving, He proceeds to view the infinite possibilities of placement and subsequent effects on the development of Sage from the beginning of his life to the very end. Being infinite, He can do this. Lol So he finally sees all the possible outcomes with all the free choices you would make in your entire lifetime. Ah! Here is the right one that ends up with the best outcome for Sagefr0g IMHO (advantage play, if you will). So, that's where I'll put him, He says.

You see, it is really the matrix after all, in so far that everything is preordained to happen, as we dance around events with our free wills, which are truly free, although their choices are all foreseen.

Now consider that He does this with everyone all at once. Wow! The fix is in.

well i'll buy that. see aslan i don't foget stuff. you remmember when i asked you about playing blackjack with virtue over in the voodoo forum? see you know what from what you wrote above i think you believe in that stuff more than you want to admitt. probablly more than i do and i'm the one that was toying with the subject.
so but i just want the black swan and not the ugly duckling lol.
thing is us mere mortals by the very nature of what a black swan or ugly duckling is don't even have a notion of what it is or even know if it exists. just all we know is that it's significantly life changing, totally unexpected and not even supposed to exist.
that being the case i don't think they really occur in the game of blackjack for a typical AP. but they do for wild ass gamblers. the differance might be preparation and what to do with the darned swan. a ploppy is gonna kill the goose that lays the golden egg. an AP might have a clue.
but maybe there are mini black swans and mini ugly ducklings in blackjack that an AP might experience.
like when you win hand over fist in a negative count and lose your butt off in a positive count. like when you double down on a hard 11 and get an ace and maybe the dealer busts. yay! yeah totaly normal stuff i know but far from the ideal or the expected norm.
like to me that four standard deviations i hit in the warrior thing were i think i was up 60 grand or was it 70 grand before i dropped down to 30 some grand. well for a person of my psychological make up that's pretty close to the concept of a black swan and the losing part pretty close to a ugly duckling. lol. i know standard deviations are totally expected by what ever degree at what ever number of hands. just to my psychological frame of referance it's a parrallel. for a guy like me it would be utterly ridiculous to lose that circa 40 grand. i can't imagine allowing myself to do that in real life play. with my free will i would not choose to do that as an AP come hell or high water. i might lose some of it but sure as hell not 40 grand. In other words, in the words of a famous man from Brooklyn, "Fuhget abaughtit!"

Yes, the slot machine is random. What if you knew when it would hit? Would that change it's randomness? No. If you played the slot machine 50,000 times, would that increase your chances of winning? By the so-called laws of probability, yes, but by your intelligent placement in the world the answer is that you have as much chance to win with one play as you do with 50,000 plays. In other words, in the words of a famous man from Brooklyn, "Fuhget abaughtit!"

i've played em. thats how i got into this gambin stick. lol.
you know what? you can win a pretty fair chunk of change. not saying long term that's loser'sville. i lost every dime i ever made on the slots but nothing more when i was a really slot player. that's what drew me to learn card counting and draws me to try and figure out what ever other AP stick may be possible. you know i wouldn't swear that i wouldn't take a shot at a slot machine or not. well truth be known i play a dollar or some freebee mailings ticket in a penny slot from time to time. to me it can be fun for a short while. maybe an hour or so. no big deal to me. what a dollar? i do watch the bottom line as far as what happens though. with the freebee's or my own dollars. i ain't gonna let myself get down much before the fun evaporates and those shenanegans are history. too me with slots it's a question of what are you willing to pay for value wise entertainment and possibility of winning. how much am i willing to lose? not much. if anything the kind of black swan you was refering to that just happens to you with out really trying for it might happen on a slot machine. same goes for the ugly duckling but it's probably the more likely one. kind of helps to know the differance i should think.

Did you ever gamble more than you wanted to and then at the very last moment you hit it big and got almost all your money back? What are the odds of that? Can you count on it? My guess is that just as soon as you begin to count on it you'll lose your life savings. Lol That's the way life is. When we win, it's a gift. When we lose, it's a lesson. When we have a good time gambling and don't lose more than we can afford, it's entertainment.

I think a good sign that you were meant to be a card counter might be if you found yourself successful from the start. I would never risk the farm on something as fickle as probability theory. A bird in the hand...

every time i gamble it's more than i want to. every nickle. lol. but it's a kind of an ambivalent thing like a kid in a candy store. and yep i've had it happen to get almost or all the money back. i mean heck thats kind of common in counting or even just basic strategy play. but yeah hope for it don't count on it. lol i've had a lot of gifts and a lot of lessons. and yeah when you lose more than you can afford gambling that's when it becomes degenerate gambling. it's i believe some truth in the common idea of keep it fun or don't do it. it's like to me a professional AP for whom it isn't fun would seem to me to defeat the purpose of being a professional AP. that's why i had to give up my dream of supplementing my retirement in a meaningful way by card counting. just too much work involved for me to enjoy it that way.
i don't think i have but the fuzziest of understanding of probability theory or statisitics. it's one of the few common academic maths i never had rigorous schooling in. i know the worst part about it for me is keeping an understanding about independent events, the idea of the law of large numbers and that the law of averages doesn't always compute like one would suppose it would when it comes to the likelyhood of something happening with respect to independent events. yea ole gambler's fallacy thing is a hard bugger to shake. but as far as a bird in the hand..... i wanna black swan. lol

I guess what I'm saying is that I respect your desire not to lose even your $5 bet. Lol

damm straight. that's what i'm talkin bout. :cool2:

 

[aslan]

............i wanna black swan. lol...............

View attachment 982You actually make my thinking clear to me.

An ugly duckling is really only a white swan, if you know the story, but it does stand out in the duck world, and I guess it's close enough to a reverse black swan. It's just the opposite of what you're looking for.

The thing is, on the virtue thing is that their is no mechanical principle, like if you're good, then good things will happen to you. Consider the story of Job, although he eventually got his wealth restored. Think of Jesus or the martyrs, all good and virtuous, but in the end, ugly ducklings (in this life). I think as a general rule, Providence looks out for us, helps us to avoid the bad stuff, but this is an imperfect world and bad things do happen to good people.View attachment 981

In the machine run Matrix, yes, there could be a certain thing that might enhance your chances for a black swan. But in a Caring-Intelligence-run Matrix, like our world, everything good is gift and everything bad is a mystery. We already know that nothing is coincidence, and we already know that everything is prearranged for the best outcome, so why would we want to change things? Wouldn't change indicate a less than optimum outcome? I'm all for leaving things alone as I figure He knows better than I do, even though I often wish He thought a little more like me. LOL

But I am not saying we shouldn't do anything. I think there are certain talents given us that we should develop. The clue is usually a strong desire in our heart to do a certain thing, like play a musical instrument, or establish a company, or write a book. There are also certain things we need to do to help other people, like the desire to feed our families, or help a friend, or give to charity, or volunteer our time for a worthy cause. But the black swan thing--that is just the desire for a dollar windfall--if it's meant to be it will happen.

Wishing it would happen is almost a certain way to ensure it doesn't happen. Remember Solomon? Because he didn't ask for great wealth, but for wisdom instead, he was given both wisdom and great wealth. But now that you know the story, it doesn't work--because you can't be sincere in only wanting wisdom if you have an ulterior motive to obtain great wealth. If this is the path to a black swan, then it can only be achieved if you don't seek it--a paradox, but not really.

So I suggest you give up looking for a black swan, and if you do, you may get one, but only if you don't give up looking for one in order to fool the gods into giving you one. Lol lol lol The perfect Matrix, we in are, says Master Yoda. There is no escape so buckle up and enjoy the ride. Lol View attachment 983

PS--You might be given a black swan just to demonstrate that I don't know what I'm talking about. The only rule in the perfect matrix is: There are no rules! So in the end, all is vanity, and the only thing we know is that we don't know anything. I guess that makes me the biggest conspiracy theorist of all!

 

[sagefr0g]

View attachment 982You actually make my thinking clear to me.

An ugly duckling is really only a white swan, if you know the story, but it does stand out in the duck world, and I guess it's close enough to a reverse black swan. It's just the opposite of what you're looking for.

The thing is, on the virtue thing is that their is no mechanical principle, like if you're good, then good things will happen to you. Consider the story of Job, although he eventually got his wealth restored. Think of Jesus or the martyrs, all good and virtuous, but in the end, ugly ducklings (in this life). I think as a general rule, Providence looks out for us, helps us to avoid the bad stuff, but this is an imperfect world and bad things do happen to good people.View attachment 981

In the machine run Matrix, yes, there could be a certain thing that might enhance your chances for a black swan. But in a Caring-Intelligence-run Matrix, like our world, everything good is gift and everything bad is a mystery. We already know that nothing is coincidence, and we already know that everything is prearranged for the best outcome, so why would we want to change things? Wouldn't change indicate a less than optimum outcome? I'm all for leaving things alone as I figure He knows better than I do, even though I often wish He thought a little more like me. LOL

But I am not saying we shouldn't do anything. I think there are certain talents given us that we should develop. The clue is usually a strong desire in our heart to do a certain thing, like play a musical instrument, or establish a company, or write a book. There are also certain things we need to do to help other people, like the desire to feed our families, or help a friend, or give to charity, or volunteer our time for a worthy cause. But the black swan thing--that is just the desire for a dollar windfall--if it's meant to be it will happen.
...edit....
Wishing it would happen is almost a certain way to ensure it doesn't happen. Remember Solomon? Because he didn't ask for great wealth, but for wisdom instead, he was given both wisdom and great wealth. But now that you know the story, it doesn't work--because you can't be sincere in only wanting wisdom if you have an ulterior motive to obtain great wealth. If this is the path to a black swan, then it can only be achieved if you don't seek it--a paradox, but not really.

So I suggest you give up looking for a black swan, and if you do, you may get one, but only if you don't give up looking for one in order to fool the gods into giving you one. Lol lol lol The perfect Matrix, we in are, says Master Yoda. There is no escape so buckle up and enjoy the ride. Lol View attachment 983

PS--You might be given a black swan just to demonstrate that I don't know what I'm talking about. The only rule in the perfect matrix is: There are no rules! So in the end, all is vanity, and the only thing we know is that we don't know anything. I guess that makes me the biggest conspiracy theorist of all!

stop with that ugly duckling fairytale thing. i'm talkin real black swans that don't exist lol.

yep you do beleive that stuff more than you want to admitt or at least more than i would have believed you did.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=80281&postcount=148

there is a process for the playing with virtue thing. like the knights of old lol. problem is it isn't about keeping yourself happy by winning more blackjack it's about keeping God happy with you in your own mind and therefore your self being more happy with yourself. isn't one of the reasons you wanna play blackjack is to be happy have fun? i mean i just used the example of pride in the link but i should think really it might be a host of things God might want for people in general but that is common for people to miss the mark on. so the process would be simply to comport yourself as to your play according to the manner that you believe God would want you to. simple really. i should think success at playing with virtue would take a lot of frustration out of the play. what is it they say in the big house. they can beat me down but they can't break my spirit?

but really no the black swan thing isn't just the desire for a dollar windfall anymore than wanting a paycheck from having made music, written a book or having established a business enterprise would be. it's just part of the ole hunter gatherer ethos sort of thing. capture something of value.
and no this black swan isn't going to vanish or never appear just because you want it. it's a swan not a pyschic lol. but it is elusive because we don't even know it exists in fact we believe it does not exist. just like we believe we have to do this or that to win at blackjack and that no other options exist or even a scarier thought the possibility that one might win with a slot machine. the black swan is elusive because we start off believing it doesn't exist and then when it shows it's self we explain it away with our imperfect science and not so great mental capabilities that we don't want to admitt aren't so great. so we slog along dully happy in our belief of what we think we know while all the while having missed something of great value. then when the next black swan appears we miss it again and explain it away again. never do we stop and say. hmm somethings going on here maybe we better prepare for it should something impossible like this ever happen again.
it's like the providence thing your talkin there. good things happening to bad people and vice-a-versa. those are black swans too. things can be done about that but it's more common that things aren't done about it. it's like a child to whom something bad happens. we don't blame the child he doesn't know any better. maybe the same thing happens to an adult. then it's well he shoulda've known better. and it's true he should have known better but it's simply not in our nature to know better. it's like wisdom. a rare thing.
like the boy scout motto 'always be prepared' or the defensive driver rule 'expect the unexpected'. we rarely do that and the consequences are either tragic or we miss something of great value. pretty much the point there. then there is the question of ok so what do you do. and i don't know that cause i'm still reading the book lol. but it has to do with preparation ahead of time for the swan and an awareness that there could be one.
see aslan here is the thing. right now your saying you think i should oughta stop looking out for the black swan. thing is though before you know it your gonna be looking under every rock there is trying to find one too. :cool2:

 

[aslan]

stop with that ugly duckling fairytale thing. i'm talkin real black swans that don't exist lol.

yep you do beleive that stuff more than you want to admitt or at least more than i would have believed you did.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=80281&postcount=148

there is a process for the playing with virtue thing. like the knights of old lol. problem is it isn't about keeping yourself happy by winning more blackjack it's about keeping God happy with you in your own mind and therefore your self being more happy with yourself. isn't one of the reasons you wanna play blackjack is to be happy have fun? i mean i just used the example of pride in the link but i should think really it might be a host of things God might want for people in general but that is common for people to miss the mark on. so the process would be simply to comport yourself as to your play according to the manner that you believe God would want you to. simple really. i should think success at playing with virtue would take a lot of frustration out of the play. what is it they say in the big house. they can beat me down but they can't break my spirit?

but really no the black swan thing isn't just the desire for a dollar windfall anymore than wanting a paycheck from having made music, written a book or having established a business enterprise would be. it's just part of the ole hunter gatherer ethos sort of thing. capture something of value.
and no this black swan isn't going to vanish or never appear just because you want it. it's a swan not a pyschic lol. but it is elusive because we don't even know it exists in fact we believe it does not exist. just like we believe we have to do this or that to win at blackjack and that no other options exist or even a scarier thought the possibility that one might win with a slot machine. the black swan is elusive because we start off believing it doesn't exist and then when it shows it's self we explain it away with our imperfect science and not so great mental capabilities that we don't want to admitt aren't so great. so we slog along dully happy in our belief of what we think we know while all the while having missed something of great value. then when the next black swan appears we miss it again and explain it away again. never do we stop and say. hmm somethings going on here maybe we better prepare for it should something impossible like this ever happen again.
it's like the providence thing your talkin there. good things happening to bad people and vice-a-versa. those are black swans too. things can be done about that but it's more common that things aren't done about it. it's like a child to whom something bad happens. we don't blame the child he doesn't know any better. maybe the same thing happens to an adult. then it's well he shoulda've known better. and it's true he should have known better but it's simply not in our nature to know better. it's like wisdom. a rare thing.
like the boy scout motto 'always be prepared' or the defensive driver rule 'expect the unexpected'. we rarely do that and the consequences are either tragic or we miss something of great value. pretty much the point there. then there is the question of ok so what do you do. and i don't know that cause i'm still reading the book lol. but it has to do with preparation ahead of time for the swan and an awareness that there could be one.
see aslan here is the thing. right now your saying you think i should oughta stop looking out for the black swan. thing is though before you know it your gonna be looking under every rock there is trying to find one too. :cool2:

Well I agree with 99% of what you say.

One small disagreement. You said:
so the process would be simply to comport yourself as to your play according to the manner that you believe God would want you to.

Well, that might work if God wanted one to play in the first place. Lol Second, if you are just playing for fun, I wouldn't expect any more than breaking even, or a loss to warn one of the dangers of playing with fire. Lol

Black Swans are highly improbable things. While they may have earth-shattering consequences, it's hard to plan for the correct improbability out of the nearly infinite possibilities of improbabilities. Lol I plan my life around the most probable things. Sometimes they are earth-shattering as well--the common disasters of fire, theft, acts of nature, deaths of loved ones, sickness, war, accidents, etc, all which can be mitigated somewhat through insurance, except maybe war. Things like a total economic collapse, invasion of my country, the black plague, alien abduction--I just don't know what I could do about them anyway.

As for sudden financial windfalls, I don't look for them, I don't expect them, but if they come, I'm probably better prepared than the average guy to deal with it. Lol

If you mean, do you look for what other people ignore and which could be very consequential, yes, I do that, but I always thought of it as being more perceptive (or at least trying to be) than the next guy. In those cases it's not that the event is improbable but that other people just aren't focusing on it, or don't realize its potential. Early on in the development of the Internet I believe that it could be foreseen that it could take off as it did, but before anyone ever thought of the Internet, well, that's the nature of a black swan. How do you expect what is unexpected especially when there is no one on earth who had ever thought of it? It's like saying green threes will revolutionize the world. And maybe they will, only I don't know what they are and how they will change anything, and on top of that, I don't know what to do about it. No, the best I can do it seems to me is to look at what is possible and maybe intuit that it will take off when no one else thinks it has a chance. It's like seeing a hoola hoop for the first time and realizing that this thing could take off. It's not a black swan I guess if you see it coming, but to everyone else I guess it is a black swan. Lol It's very easy to get wrapped around yourself in discussions like this. Lol
View attachment 985

 

[sagefr0g]

Well I agree with 99% of what you say.

One small disagreement. You said:
so the process would be simply to comport yourself as to your play according to the manner that you believe God would want you to.

Well, that might work if God wanted one to play in the first place. Lol Second, if you are just playing for fun, I wouldn't expect any more than breaking even, or a loss to warn one of the dangers of playing with fire. Lol

to quote (just words to that effect) a famous risk taker when asked "aren't you afraid to do this that canyon is awfully deep" Knievel answered " doesn't much matter. i'm going to do it anyway."
so but to me and it's just my personal opinion playing Blackjack is just about as innocuous of a thing to do as playing golf or praying for salvation. can't really see where God would much care one way or the other. so but i'd think what He would really care about is us and our comportment. i dunno it's just to me when i'm playing blackjack on my computer is when i really notice it not in the casino where the adrenelin is flowing lol. it being my comportment with respect to whats happening in the game. mainly the pride thing is the thing i feel uncomfortable about. i feel much better about it when i'm purely objective or better a feeling of innocent ignorance rather than proud about some play or about some advantageous position in the game. takes the sting out of the game when you lose that play. lmao.
i really don't even expect to break even the way i play. but that doesn't stop me from wanting to win some money. but yeah it is kind of like playing with fire a'int it?

Black Swans are highly improbable things. While they may have earth-shattering consequences, it's hard to plan for the correct improbability out of the nearly infinite possibilities of improbabilities. Lol I plan my life around the most probable things. Sometimes they are earth-shattering as well--the common disasters of fire, theft, acts of nature, deaths of loved ones, sickness, war, accidents, etc, all which can be mitigated somewhat through insurance, except maybe war. Things like a total economic collapse, invasion of my country, the black plague, alien abduction--I just don't know what I could do about them anyway.

that's how i looked at things before discovering this Black Swan book. just planning for the probable things. never really giving much thought to the fact that some really strange things do happen in life. according to the author that's pretty much the human mindset and unfortunately it results in tradgedies or missed opportunities. really significant life changing ones. even to the point of mitigating further tradgedies or missed oportunities. those very things you mention above as 'common' disasters. point being those are the real uncertainties, the real unpredictable things. and yes insurance is a good point that can help mitigate somewhat. and then to make matters worse people have a tendency to abrogate these things to authorities or concoct some theory to explain it all away. and i'm like you i just don't know what i could do about them. thing is though i think to maybe at least to have a more vigilant awareness of the phenomenon is a good start.

As for sudden financial windfalls, I don't look for them, I don't expect them, but if they come, I'm probably better prepared than the average guy to deal with it. Lol

thats the part that interest me lol. but more so than the financial windfall it's self is the really meaning of luck that is of interest. well at least here on this forum in regard to blackjack. i mean what i think i'm learning is that what we tend to think of luck in a casino or with blackjack isn't really luck at all. it's almost totally expected what happens in a casino. where we might talk about luck one way or the other with AP play or even ploppy play is usually we are talking standard deviation. but really it's not luck it's just as expected as the expectation value that we are shooting for. as an aside i find it accutely interesting our weekend warrior blow by blow scoreboards where you see snap shots of what really happens as you make your way towards expectation. it's hardly ever on expectation lol. expectation is a rarity. lmao.
like Sonny says anything can happen in the short run.
so really the casino's have constructed one of the few places on earth where luck really doesn't exist. lol. and the crazy thing about it is that's the reason most people go to a casino is to maybe experience a little luck.
so maybe real luck is just outside the casino where black swans are free to fly lol.
so but anyway it still interests me the analogy between luck, real luck and standard deviation in the casino. i mean say you get a handle on what real luck is say maybe it's black swans. so ok now maybe you can decide if such a thing exists in casinos and if so maybe it's exploitable as black swans are exploitable in the financial world.

If you mean, do you look for what other people ignore and which could be very consequential, yes, I do that, but I always thought of it as being more perceptive (or at least trying to be) than the next guy. In those cases it's not that the event is improbable but that other people just aren't focusing on it, or don't realize its potential. Early on in the development of the Internet I believe that it could be foreseen that it could take off as it did, but before anyone ever thought of the Internet, well, that's the nature of a black swan. How do you expect what is unexpected especially when there is no one on earth who had ever thought of it? It's like saying green threes will revolutionize the world. And maybe they will, only I don't know what they are and how they will change anything, and on top of that, I don't know what to do about it. No, the best I can do it seems to me is to look at what is possible and maybe intuit that it will take off when no one else thinks it has a chance. It's like seeing a hoola hoop for the first time and realizing that this thing could take off. It's not a black swan I guess if you see it coming, but to everyone else I guess it is a black swan. Lol It's very easy to get wrapped around yourself in discussions like this. Lol

sounds like you already know a lot of what i'm just reading about. that's really a lot of what the guy is saying. it's pretty much all new to me.
edit: just one thing though. re-examine the idea of being able to expect the unexpected. it may but it doesn't have to be a matter of knowing what is going to happen. but maybe like a good boxer your up for it.
lol i think the process goes something like below:

 

[aslan]

to quote (just words to that effect) a famous risk taker when asked "aren't you afraid to do this that canyon is awfully deep" Knievel answered " doesn't much matter. i'm going to do it anyway."
so but to me and it's just my personal opinion playing Blackjack is just about as innocuous of a thing to do as playing golf or praying for salvation. can't really see where God would much care one way or the other. so but i'd think what He would really care about is us and our comportment. i dunno it's just to me when i'm playing blackjack on my computer is when i really notice it not in the casino where the adrenelin is flowing lol. it being my comportment with respect to whats happening in the game. mainly the pride thing is the thing i feel uncomfortable about. i feel much better about it when i'm purely objective or better a feeling of innocent ignorance rather than proud about some play or about some advantageous position in the game. takes the sting out of the game when you lose that play. lmao.
i really don't even expect to break even the way i play. but that doesn't stop me from wanting to win some money. but yeah it is kind of like playing with fire a'int it?

PS--A word of caution. As you seek the humility thing, be careful when you find it that you don't become proud of your humility. Lol As you are no kid, I'm sure you've already been there, done that--it's a real exercise in chasing one's own tail. Lol I think I'm a fairly humble fellow, but it's more a thing of luck. I doubt anyone can achieve it on their own, and if they did, they would have a real cause for pride. Lol You know, contrary to popular thought, it just could be that everything is luck, or at least, everything worth having! Maybe those black swans will find us, instead of us finding them, if we're lucky, that is. I'll end this by wishing you, "Good luck!"


that's how i looked at things before discovering this Black Swan book. just planning for the probable things. never really giving much thought to the fact that some really strange things do happen in life. according to the author that's pretty much the human mindset and unfortunately it results in tradgedies or missed opportunities. really significant life changing ones. even to the point of mitigating further tradgedies or missed oportunities. those very things you mention above as 'common' disasters. point being those are the real uncertainties, the real unpredictable things. and yes insurance is a good point that can help mitigate somewhat. and then to make matters worse people have a tendency to abrogate these things to authorities or concoct some theory to explain it all away. and i'm like you i just don't know what i could do about them. thing is though i think to maybe at least to have a more vigilant awareness of the phenomenon is a good start.



thats the part that interest me lol. but more so than the financial windfall it's self is the really meaning of luck that is of interest. well at least here on this forum in regard to blackjack. i mean what i think i'm learning is that what we tend to think of luck in a casino or with blackjack isn't really luck at all. it's almost totally expected what happens in a casino. where we might talk about luck one way or the other with AP play or even ploppy play is usually we are talking standard deviation. but really it's not luck it's just as expected as the expectation value that we are shooting for. as an aside i find it accutely interesting our weekend warrior blow by blow scoreboards where you see snap shots of what really happens as you make your way towards expectation. it's hardly ever on expectation lol. expectation is a rarity. lmao.
like Sonny says anything can happen in the short run.
so really the casino's have constructed one of the few places on earth where luck really doesn't exist. lol. and the crazy thing about it is that's the reason most people go to a casino is to maybe experience a little luck.
so maybe real luck is just outside the casino where black swans are free to fly lol.
so but anyway it still interests me the analogy between luck, real luck and standard deviation in the casino. i mean say you get a handle on what real luck is say maybe it's black swans. so ok now maybe you can decide if such a thing exists in casinos and if so maybe it's exploitable as black swans are exploitable in the financial world.

sounds like you already know a lot of what i'm just reading about. that's really a lot of what the guy is saying. it's pretty much all new to me.
edit: just one thing though. re-examine the idea of being able to expect the unexpected. it may but it doesn't have to be a matter of knowing what is going to happen. but maybe like a good boxer your up for it.
lol i think the process goes something like below:

Love the sign. Lol Luck by my definition is when you overcome the true odds. Say you play blackjack over a 30 year period using nothing but basic strategy. Luck to me would be showing a profit for that length of time, which in a casino environment is surely the long term. Maybe such a thing can only happen to one out of a thousand, or one out of a million, or one out of a billion--I don't know the odds of overcoming the odds for such a long period of time wth 0.5% or more against you. But whatever the odds, that is luck.

Another example might be to play roulette starting with a $1,000 bet. Bet it all on color and then repeat the process up to the limit, say $10,000. $1,000 + $1,000 + $2,000 + $4,000 + $8,000 = $15,000 winnings plus $1,000 initial bet. To me, that's luck. Last year I did something like that, but my friend imposed on me not to double up, so instead I bet $1,000, then $500, then $500, so instead of winning $7,000, I won I won a paltry $2,000. Still lucky, but not as lucky as my instincts (???) were telling me. Lol It came on the heels of a tremendous loss at Blackjack, and was a result of steaming up a storm and wanting to tempt fate to get my money back. Had I stuck to my guns, I would have come out overall winner for the trip, but as it was, I recovered a substantial portion of my losses. It was a pure sucker bet, plain and simple, and educated gamblers are probably gagging at the very thought of doing something so simpleminded.

I got lucky. They will say, keep doing it and we'll see how lucky you are. They're right statistically, and they have the higher ground of reason, and even if you continue to win over and over again, they are consoled by the notion that they are smart and you are stupid--though perhaps richer than they are because of of your stupidity. Lol In the final analysis, whoever ends up with all the marbles is the winner and the smart guy to boot IMHO. What guides the sucker's improbable wins may be something that we are unable to reason to, but the proof is in the pudding. Maybe it is some higher instinct, a sixth sense, a sense of black swans, you might say. Lol It drives the smart gamblers crazy to see the suckers makiing the big killings, and maybe that's the point of the whole exercise (back to your "pride" thing)-- the humble shall be exalted, while the proud shall be humiliated. The perfect end to the story.

PS--If you do seek after the humble thing, just be careful that you don't become proud of you humility. Lol I know you're not a kid, and that you're been there, done that--so you know it's like chasing your tail. Lol I consider myself to be a fairly humble fellow, but it's more of a lucky thing, than something you can make happen on your own. In fact, if you are able to achieve humility on your own, I believe you really do have something to be proud of. Lol You know, contrary to popular thought, maybe in the final analysis it's all luck, at least anything worth having. Lol Just maybe those black swans will find us before we find them, if we're lucky, that is. Lol So I think I'll end this by saying to you, "Good luck!"

 

[Kasi]

As for sudden financial windfalls, I don't look for them, I don't expect them, but if they come, I'm probably better prepared than the average guy to deal with it. Lol

Is this the same guy who said "...and with all that money, who among us could walk the straight and narrow?" (Re J. Edwards I think lol)

But I'm pretty sure you're one of them lol.

I'm much less sure about myself. With good reason lol. But I think I've been improving with each financial "windfall" lol. Maybe the real problem is they've only been 6 figure "windfalls". So maybe really no "windfalls" at all lol. I only regret the first one when I was young, dumb and full of you-know-what. The next 2 were more "responsibly" blown

Pretty deep philosophical stuff here lol. Wealth excuses immorality or makes it more forgivable?

 

[Kasi]

Luck by my definition is when you overcome the true odds. Say you play blackjack over a 30 year period using nothing but basic strategy. Luck to me would be showing a profit for that length of time,

I hope you add in there somewhere "flat-betting". Sure, it would still be "luck" but nowhere near on the scale you suggest. Like I already know I could play 3,000,000 more hands, flat-betting $1/hd, on some BJ games on the internet if they still exist and have a 99.9985% of finishing with a profit. All you need are enough flat-bet units. Start with a large enough roll and all you need to do is finish 1 unit up and then switch unit size.

Another example might be to play roulette starting with a $1,000 bet. Bet it all on color and then repeat the process up to the limit, say $10,000. $1,000 + $1,000 + $2,000 + $4,000 + $8,000 = $15,000 winnings plus $1,000 initial bet.

I don't know if you would call it "luck" or not since I think that's how I got married

At 2 AM, on the way to the parking lot, I put $100 on black. Back when $100 was $100 lol. It won. Let it ride. It won again. Moved it all to red. The dealer asked "are you sure". Of course I was sure at 2 AM. Took the $800, proceeded to the parking lot, bought her a necklace the next day and the rest is history

I still wonder "was it the necklace?" lmao

Maybe I should have differentiated between "good luck" and "bad luck". :grin:

 

[aslan]

Is this the same guy who said "...and with all that money, who among us could walk the straight and narrow?" (Re J. Edwards I think lol)

But I'm pretty sure you're one of them lol.

I'm much less sure about myself. With good reason lol. But I think I've been improving with each financial "windfall" lol. Maybe the real problem is they've only been 6 figure "windfalls". So maybe really no "windfalls" at all lol. I only regret the first one when I was young, dumb and full of you-know-what. The next 2 were more "responsibly" blown

Pretty deep philosophical stuff here lol. Wealth excuses immorality or makes it more forgivable?

Wealth does not excuse immorality, but it does help explain the immorality. If one had a trillion dollars, one might suppose the world was his oyster. If you want it, you can buy it. Why deny yourself when the world is at your command?

Reminds me of the real life story where a very wealthy individual was treated rudely by the manager of a restaurant, so he proceeded to purchase the restaurant and fire the offending employee. Which of us would not relish the chance to do likewise?

Recall, it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven?

Maybe it is easier to forgive someone who is more sorely tempted than another. Seems reasonable to me. What do you think?

 

[aslan]

I hope you add in there somewhere "flat-betting". Sure, it would still be "luck" but nowhere near on the scale you suggest. Like I already know I could play 3,000,000 more hands, flat-betting $1/hd, on some BJ games on the internet if they still exist and have a 99.9985% of finishing with a profit. All you need are enough flat-bet units. Start with a large enough roll and all you need to do is finish 1 unit up and then switch unit size.



I don't know if you would call it "luck" or not since I think that's how I got married

At 2 AM, on the way to the parking lot, I put $100 on black. Back when $100 was $100 lol. It won. Let it ride. It won again. Moved it all to red. The dealer asked "are you sure". Of course I was sure at 2 AM. Took the $800, proceeded to the parking lot, bought her a necklace the next day and the rest is history

I still wonder "was it the necklace?" lmao

Maybe I should have differentiated between "good luck" and "bad luck". :grin:

How could you possibly have an almost certain prospect of winning when playing at a 0.5% disadvantage as I postulated? Are you talking about a situation where you had much better than a 0.5% disadvantage?

The betting part was luck. The marriage part--well, you'll have to be the judge of that. Lol

BTW I am $2,500 ahead of roulette. I've never lost a dime, and I've only bet 4 times. Lol This sounds like a case of better quit while you're ahead if I ever heard one. Lol

 

[sagefr0g]

Love the sign. Lol Luck by my definition is when you overcome the true odds. Say you play blackjack over a 30 year period using nothing but basic strategy. Luck to me would be showing a profit for that length of time, which in a casino environment is surely the long term. Maybe such a thing can only happen to one out of a thousand, or one out of a million, or one out of a billion--I don't know the odds of overcoming the odds for such a long period of time wth 0.5% or more against you. But whatever the odds, that is luck.

Another example might be to play roulette starting with a $1,000 bet. Bet it all on color and then repeat the process up to the limit, say $10,000. $1,000 + $1,000 + $2,000 + $4,000 + $8,000 = $15,000 winnings plus $1,000 initial bet. To me, that's luck. Last year I did something like that, but my friend imposed on me not to double up, so instead I bet $1,000, then $500, then $500, so instead of winning $7,000, I won I won a paltry $2,000. Still lucky, but not as lucky as my instincts (???) were telling me. Lol It came on the heels of a tremendous loss at Blackjack, and was a result of steaming up a storm and wanting to tempt fate to get my money back. Had I stuck to my guns, I would have come out overall winner for the trip, but as it was, I recovered a substantial portion of my losses. It was a pure sucker bet, plain and simple, and educated gamblers are probably gagging at the very thought of doing something so simpleminded.

I got lucky. They will say, keep doing it and we'll see how lucky you are. They're right statistically, and they have the higher ground of reason, and even if you continue to win over and over again, they are consoled by the notion that they are smart and you are stupid--though perhaps richer than they are because of of your stupidity. Lol In the final analysis, whoever ends up with all the marbles is the winner and the smart guy to boot IMHO. What guides the sucker's improbable wins may be something that we are unable to reason to, but the proof is in the pudding. Maybe it is some higher instinct, a sixth sense, a sense of black swans, you might say. Lol It drives the smart gamblers crazy to see the suckers makiing the big killings, and maybe that's the point of the whole exercise (back to your "pride" thing)-- the humble shall be exalted, while the proud shall be humiliated. The perfect end to the story.

yeah good point so you can still gamble in a casino even if you do know all the expectations.

PS--If you do seek after the humble thing, just be careful that you don't become proud of you humility. Lol I know you're not a kid, and that you're been there, done that--so you know it's like chasing your tail. Lol I consider myself to be a fairly humble fellow, but it's more of a lucky thing, than something you can make happen on your own. In fact, if you are able to achieve humility on your own, I believe you really do have something to be proud of. Lol You know, contrary to popular thought, maybe in the final analysis it's all luck, at least anything worth having. Lol Just maybe those black swans will find us before we find them, if we're lucky, that is. Lol So I think I'll end this by saying to you, "Good luck!"

for me i think the humility thing just has the potential to make one happier. keep one from feeling like a schlemeal when the sh!t hits the fan despite ones best efforts. what is it they say, after pride cometh the fall.
maybe it's all luck sorta like it's all good. lmao yeah man.

i forget what was the DOW down yesterday close to what it was up today lmao. weird ain't it? and there is always some one willing to explain the rational behind it.
let's see here. advantage play isn't gambling. it's more like investing. and there's no way to predict the stock market however investing isn't gambling.
after all investing in the stock market is backed by history of increased value over time.
thats anectdotal evidence that even science can't deny nor reproduce.
the more i think about it and the more i try and understand it whether it be advantage play or investing the more i think that the gamble and luck involved is exponetialy more important than the process and the expected results long term or short term. i'm beginning to believe that the best thing about the advantage one might glean is just a crutch one uses to get to the luck. that's not to say the advantage isn't a smart thing to shoot for. but it is saying don't throw luck out with the bath water. again i go back to my money won and money lost in the weekend warrior game. played like a robot won 70 grand and then lost 40 grand of it. the idea of continuing to play like a robot and losing that 40 grand is simply ludicrous. sure it's perfectly normal.
but where i come from losing 40 grand is pure and simple ludicrous. if that isn't degenerate gambling i don't know what it is. but like the guy in the movie said "get this straight what we're doing isn't gambling."
where i come from that's whats called hog wash. lol. so i dunno i think i remmember in the documentary about the MIT team they won a sh!t load of money and then lost a sh!t load of money before thier corporation was dissolved. still came out ahead i know but not what it could have been had they used a little old fashioned common sense. those guys were brilliant no doubt but i don't think they'd of known a black swan if it had bit them in the a$$. and yeah i know some of them went on to win millions more later on.
it sounds like i'm ragging on advantage play but i'm really not. or it might sound like i'm denying the statistics of simulations that show how a given advantage is highly likely to turn out. but i'm really not.
just the more i look at this advantage stuff the more i see how luck (albeit good and bad) is married to it. ok so maybe in the casino it's really standard deviation and not true luck. thing is though you know it's comming. why not prepare for it. and i don't think just having a risk of ruin plan is the only thing that needs to be done. ROR covers the down side. what about the upside?
the upside is a potential that should be taken advantage of. i mean heck an upside could dwarf your expectation. isn't it concievable that a game plan change at the right time (just using common sense to decide) could lock in or at least protect that upside money? so maybe you play a more conservative advantage tact you could still get another upside surge of money from that. maybe to the point where you go back to the less conservative tact.
maybe i'm full of it. just seems it would be wise to not just blindly all the time follow some rosey simulation.

 

[hawkeye]

Is there really a person silly enough to claim that investing in the stock market isn't gambling?

 

[sagefr0g]

Is there really a person silly enough to claim that investing in the stock market isn't gambling?

i'm not saying they are silly. but there are plenty that say AP play is like investing not gambling or at least the implication is there. actually i don't entirely disagree. i just think there is an element of gambling in both.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=90086&postcount=50
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=90132&postcount=54
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=90152&postcount=56
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=90716&postcount=75

edit: after sleeping on it i guess it's largely a matter of semantics.

 

[hawkeye]

Gotcha, we agree. There is definitely an aspect of gambling in both. I thought the stock market was considered gambling by most. Just like AP, even though there is a slight edge and expectations are good...it's still gambling in the end.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Hold Onto That BJ Investment, It Will Increase Over Time

I would think long run considerations would be a factor with AP play. If you play enough to get to the long run then AP play takes on more investment qualities.

I guess it can be like day trading vs buy and hold with stocks.

If one's bj career was only a few hours then that may be considered a gamble, now play over time and you are investing.

 

[sagefr0g]

dowjonesindustirals

yup jus like the stock market

 

[blackjack avenger]

Gotta Hold Longer

Got to Hold Longer, no not your hand, one plays that as quickly as possible:joker::whip:

Depending on how often you play
The time horizon for bj is probably shorter then the stock market.
Also, probably far fewer variables involved in bj.

 

[Tarzan]

Luck and roulette

I recall reading that post way back about the horrific loss and the going on tilt to play a few whirls of roulette and lucking out. I don't know if it's a matter of "I wish I had that sort of courage and big brass ones" (I avoid playing anything but blackjack) or it's a matter of "Good thing I am so darn conservative" but it's likely the latter! I DID play a few spins of roulette over a period of time, though. Like one spin every two weeks or so because a casino that I rarely to almost never play at sent me a series of matchplay coupons years ago. SO!!!...Just for the hell of it..."found money"...I decided to GAMBLE!!! YEEHAWWW....$10 matchplay, stroll in to this place and slap it down on the red or black. I would lose my one spin and walk away in disgust. In 4 or 5 times I lost each and every time. $10 toasted...gone...no more. So I made up for your 3 or 4 straight wins with never ever winning at roulette not even one bet. So much for gambling it up!!!!hahahaha

I knew then and there that this game (roulette) was NOT for me and truly sucks. I still have nightmares about losing my 40 or 50 bucks all these years later.

 

[aslan]

I recall reading that post way back about the horrific loss and the going on tilt to play a few whirls of roulette and lucking out. I don't know if it's a matter of "I wish I had that sort of courage and big brass ones" (I avoid playing anything but blackjack) or it's a matter of "Good thing I am so darn conservative" but it's likely the latter! I DID play a few spins of roulette over a period of time, though. Like one spin every two weeks or so because a casino that I rarely to almost never play at sent me a series of matchplay coupons years ago. SO!!!...Just for the hell of it..."found money"...I decided to GAMBLE!!! YEEHAWWW....$10 matchplay, stroll in to this place and slap it down on the red or black. I would lose my one spin and walk away in disgust. In 4 or 5 times I lost each and every time. $10 toasted...gone...no more. So I made up for your 3 or 4 straight wins with never ever winning at roulette not even one bet. So much for gambling it up!!!!hahahaha

I knew then and there that this game (roulette) was NOT for me and truly sucks. I still have nightmares about losing my 40 or 50 bucks all these years later.

In fact, it's truly no one's game. I pray that I never again try my luck at roulette. I guess my only "logic," if you can call it that, was that I was so far in the hole, what difference would another $1,000 make? I'll tell you what it would have meant--another $1,000 foolishly thrown away.

Also, it could have gone like this: I bet the $1,000 and lose. I say to myself, I still have another $1,000 in my wallet, what are the odds of losing two in a row (hint, hint--the same as they were when I lost the first $1,000). I place my bet on red this time, and to add insult to injury, black does not come up, but green does! Now I am totally broke, and believe me, it would feel a lot better leaving with $2,000 in my pocket, than leaving dead broke. No one in there right mind bets $1,000 on the spin of the roulette wheel unless they have money to burn.

No! Steamboating is strictly for suckers, and what I did was not the least bit smart, but it was lucky. There's a saying in the poolroom--God looks after babies and drunks--maybe that should be extended to imbeciles as well! It doesn't take big ones to do what I did--it takes big ones to turn around and walk out with $2,000 still on your pocket. But it does make a good story!

 

[prankster]

What got me.

I enjoyed the movie and BRAVO to all concerned. What got me though was in the "special features" portion of the dvd. The actor who plays Fisher states that he has a disclaimer;that usually the count will return to zero or something close to zero and that it will be VERY RARE that a count occurs that you can win with. But if you play long enough and are lucky enough you just may get that one hot shoe that you can tell your grandchildren about.
You just gotta beleive the casinos asked for that "disclaimer" to be part of the special features section,right?