Need advice from experienced players

[qzj]

Well, I'll just say what I think lol.

I didn't realize you'd be the only investor in your team. If it's your $50K, I'd probably just back-count myself and forget the spotters. Let me get this straight, they risk nothing, win if you win, lose nothing if you lose or win all the time no matter what happens becasue you pay them by the hour or something?

All the more so, if you are not overly concerned about winning tons of money in the first place and want to learn about your skills and what to expect from them.

I hope this is a game allowing mid-shoe entry lol.

It sounds like you, or the team, will never play a hand below +2.

I'd implement an "optimal" betting strategy,ramp, at all times and forget about "conservative" spreads. You may as well bet the "optimal"number of units at any TC than some other number. This will keep the best ratio of EV to SD at all times.

If you are back-counting, like it sounds to me, spreading much more than 1-4 doesn't gain that much anyway. Spreading 1-2 instead of 1-4 doesn't lose very much more either, probably.

This $190 stuff at +2 is fine if your advantage at +2 is 0.5%. But it's not, it's likely more. Probably at +4 it's alot closer to 2% than 1.5%.

And, of course, all 8D S17 DAS are not created equal as you simplistically ask about. Some may be dealt 7/8, some , say, 5.5/8.

Only playing counts at +2 or more might mean you only play 15 rounds of 100 seen.

Whoever said buy a sim and learn how to use it, is the absolute best advice you could ever get here, with or without a team lol. But, then again, I guess you've already been playing 7 years without one. I guess that means, worst case, by now, even if it never had the slightest benefit to you, you've been blowing that 80 cents a month for a really long time lol.

And the more complicated you want to get, like with 3 spootters, 2 BP players, worrying about "lost opportunities becasue a spotter says "come over, it's great but you are already playing a great count etc, the more you need a sim.

First of all, let me say thank you.
I guess I should have mentioned the game is 75% pen by now. My team members are only interested in being players at this point. Our compensation goes 50% winning to investor which is me, and 50% goes to players, we split that 50% three ways. I have been playing by myself for the past 7 years, using 1-20 bet spread. The problem is, with this 8 deck game, I normally have to wait 1- 2 hrs before I could really hit a TC=3+ situation, which makes my play time around 6-8 hrs everytime, I thought team play can significantly increase the efficiency.
I am very new to the team play style, so when I said I wanted to learn the skill, I meant the team play skills.
In terms of betting ramps, I certainly considered what you mentioned, why not just bet the optimal bet, I was only concerned about the 1x kelly 13.5 RoR. I thought for a team that just started, maybe I should keep RoR lower than that.
Lastly, I am getting my sim tomorrow. Thanks Kasi.

 

[Sonny]

Be careful!

Our compensation goes 50% winning to investor which is me, and 50% goes to players, we split that 50% three ways.

Be very careful with this setup. It can be incredibly dangerous to you if you do this wrong. Every time the team loses, you absorb the entire loss. Every time the team wins, you have to share the profit with others. Basically you're getting shorted every time you win. This could have a negative impact on your results. Just like when the house shorts the payouts on roulette from a fair 38:1 to only 35:1 they create a negative player advantage, this arrangement potentially creates a negative "edge" for you as the investor. The players are getting a free ride and getting paid for their positive variance. In certain situations you could be paying the players but never seeing any profit as an investor. As the sole investor, if you go broke the whole team goes broke.

You have to make sure that you make payouts at the appropriate time. Don't break the bank too soon or too often. Set up some goals that are realistic based on your N0. This is discussed in the team betting section of the FAQ thread.

-Sonny-

 

[qzj]

Be very careful with this setup. It can be incredibly dangerous to you if you do this wrong. Every time the team loses, you absorb the entire loss. Every time the team wins, you have to share the profit with others. Basically you're getting shorted every time you win. This could have a negative impact on your results. Just like when the house shorts the payouts on roulette from a fair 38:1 to only 35:1 they create a negative player advantage, this arrangement potentially creates a negative "edge" for you as the investor. The players are getting a free ride and getting paid for their positive variance. In certain situations you could be paying the players but never seeing any profit as an investor. As the sole investor, if you go broke the whole team goes broke.

You have to make sure that you make payouts at the appropriate time. Don't break the bank too soon or too often. Set up some goals that are realistic based on your N0. This is discussed in the team betting section of the FAQ thread.

-Sonny-

I will definitely take that into consideration. So far I am thinking of breaking up the bank at around 250hrs of play, we might modify that later on if we can get other investors on board. Thanks Sonny.

 

[Bojack1]

I will definitely take that into consideration. So far I am thinking of breaking up the bank at around 250hrs of play, we might modify that later on if we can get other investors on board. Thanks Sonny.

Be careful not to be too generic in you're team strategy. The more info you have to input into it, the more you can approximate optimal decisionmaking. What criteria are you using to validate breaking bank at 250 hrs? Is that team hours or man hours? Are you sure the game you're playing allows an EV where that is an acceptable amount of time? Or maybe its too long and the pay will be spread out so far the team will lose interest. A tip for this would be to set a money goal for breaking bank that could be reached in an acceptable expected time frame. You need to be able to simulate your game and strategy, guessing is not an option if you want to run a profitable team. You should be able to input your game plan and find feasable answers to strategy, as well as be able to take gametime notes to input afterwards to see if you are performing optimally. Never rest on wins, and never get down on losses. What is directly seen usually will not give you the true conclusion. Recordkeeping will paint the picture your eyes cannot see. With hard work it should be a work of art.

Also remember what is the teams interest when figuring payoff percentages. 50% investor, 50% players works well as long as you have the right factors. First off know that the break comes on net profit over starting bankroll amount. If you start with 50K and lose 5k, you don't start counting off bank until you've replenished back to full starting bankroll. Also unless your bankroll is where you don't want to build it any longer, you will have to put aside a percentage towards bankroll growth. Then when starting a new bank, that will be the starting amount upon which you can start building net bank. There is a lot involved with running a team, this is just the surface. The benefits can be fantastic, but nothing comes free, it takes a different sort to run a team correctly. If you already have your game down pat thats just the tip of the iceberg. A team is a whole separate entity that one good player with no plan will get swallowed up in.

 

[callipygian]

My team members are only interested in being players at this point.

Be very careful about this. People need motivation to do something, and if their only motivation is reaching the payout goal, they're going to lose motivation when the bankroll takes a negative downturn and their payout seems like a million miles away.

Setting a time limit (rather than a money limit) also introduced motivation problems. If you pay someone by the hour, they might just putz around and kill time until they get paid.

I personally recommend forcing people to put some of their own money in; even if it's $500 or $1,000 and a small percentage of the bankroll, the point is to create disincentive for losing and motivation for reaching a goal that benefits everyone.

Bojack described this in another recent thread, but defining the payout in terms of shares is very, very useful. Basically, each investor gets shares per dollar put in, and players are paid shares per hour of play. The total number of shares will grow over time, and when the target is reached, everyone is rewarded proportional to the money or effort they put in.

Of course, the key to this system is arranging the shares per dollar invested and shares per play such that the two are balanced. If shares per play is too high, shares per investment gets diluted and investors could hypothetically lose money even when the bank reaches its target. If shares per investment is too high then players end up working for a pittance.

 

[qzj]

Be careful not to be too generic in you're team strategy. The more info you have to input into it, the more you can approximate optimal decisionmaking. What criteria are you using to validate breaking bank at 250 hrs? Is that team hours or man hours? Are you sure the game you're playing allows an EV where that is an acceptable amount of time? Or maybe its too long and the pay will be spread out so far the team will lose interest. A tip for this would be to set a money goal for breaking bank that could be reached in an acceptable expected time frame. You need to be able to simulate your game and strategy, guessing is not an option if you want to run a profitable team. You should be able to input your game plan and find feasable answers to strategy, as well as be able to take gametime notes to input afterwards to see if you are performing optimally. Never rest on wins, and never get down on losses. What is directly seen usually will not give you the true conclusion. Recordkeeping will paint the picture your eyes cannot see. With hard work it should be a work of art.

Also remember what is the teams interest when figuring payoff percentages. 50% investor, 50% players works well as long as you have the right factors. First off know that the break comes on net profit over starting bankroll amount. If you start with 50K and lose 5k, you don't start counting off bank until you've replenished back to full starting bankroll. Also unless your bankroll is where you don't want to build it any longer, you will have to put aside a percentage towards bankroll growth. Then when starting a new bank, that will be the starting amount upon which you can start building net bank. There is a lot involved with running a team, this is just the surface. The benefits can be fantastic, but nothing comes free, it takes a different sort to run a team correctly. If you already have your game down pat thats just the tip of the iceberg. A team is a whole separate entity that one good player with no plan will get swallowed up in.

I was thinking of figuring out a money goal for breaking the bank, but I was having trouble finding a balanced point where it protects my investment well enough, and team players won't get frustrated because it's hard to reach. That's why I used 250hrs, hoping I could avoid the short-run swings, and reach an acceptable profit region and split at that point.

What's the rule-of-thumb for setting the money goal? 10%, 20% of BR?

 

[zengrifter]

Any suggestions on the betting strategy we should use? Thanks.

What about Creeping Panther's offer?c zg

 

[Kasi]

In terms of betting ramps, I certainly considered what you mentioned, why not just bet the optimal bet, I was only concerned about the 1x kelly 13.5 RoR. I thought for a team that just started, maybe I should keep RoR lower than that.
Lastly, I am getting my sim tomorrow.

Thanks for saying thanks lol.

That's OK - everybody probably assumes 75% pen as a default anyway lol.

I'll just take one more stab at what I think "optimal bet ramps" are. Probably you get this anyway lol so apologies in advance.

Say a "backcounter" is playing a 75% 8D S17 DAS game. To bet "optimally", if spreading say 1-2, he will enter at +2 and bet 1 unit. And also at +3. And 1.5 units at +4. And 2 units at +5 and above. A full-Kelly thing would mean a $100 unit with a $10K roll and an ROR of abot that 13.5%. That's a 100 unit roll.

If he wants to play half-kelly, he needs a 200 unit roll. He can do this by either changing his $spread to $50-$100, ROR will drop to about 2% but $EV will halve. Unit EV stays the same of course.

Or he could keep his $100-$200 spread and play to a $20K roll. $EV will be the same as it was with a $10K roll obviously but risk now, since he now has a 200 unit roll, is the same as it was playing $50-$100 with $10K.

But the "optimal" spread, when expressed in terms of units, remains the same.

And, probably, nobody, individually or as a team, wants to play full-kelly.

Now you say you've been spreading 1-20 for the last 7 years, maybe waiting until +3 to even enter?. Maybe I misunderstand. Or not. Doesn't matter.

As far as team stuff goes, I know nothing lol. Do whatever Bojack says lol.

Having team members actually risking a $ of their own money as an investor is something i can better understand but that's neither here nor there lol.

I don't know but this BP stuff seems to be more for "cover" than "playing efficiency"? Like less obvious to come in from far away than if the "spotter" decided to join at the same point.

Glad you're getting a sim. It may revolutionize how you may choose to utilize your own $50K even without a team.

Good luck to you!