negative variance strikes again

[blackchipjim]

I had it happen again to me yesterday at the casino. It started around noon first session low min table 5min,500max, I find the table and jump in one deck into the 8deck shoe. I just start counting and the count rises dramaticlly after just another deck and half dealt. I readjust to the low end of scale and continue with pretty good sucess. The next shoe is just as great with great results and being up 50 units I was working the table good until, I spilled my drink and busted up the table. To make matters worse the next shoe the guy next to me spills his drink in a really good count and the pit bosses are swarming the table and are hot as hell. I took my chips to the restroom to wash them and dry them.( rathole the greeens). I decided to try another table since they raised the min up to 15min. I sat at another one only to watch the neg session start, It started positive only to move neg and never really recover. I ended up only ahead 20 units ahead after 4 and half hours of play. blackchipjim:cry:

 

[zengrifter]

I ended up only ahead 20 units ahead after 4 and half hours of play. blackchipjim:cry:

Thats not neg variance! zg

 

[EasyRhino]

Yeah, it sounds slightly better than the expected value from four hours of playing a straighting counting game?

Sure Jim, you dropped 30 units at the end, but over the session, you still did pretty good.

Remember, you're only supposed to spill drinks in negative counts.

 

[halcyon1234]

It started positive only to move neg and never really recover. I ended up only ahead 20 units ahead after 4 and half hours of play.

Dude, may all your negative variance be only as bad as that. :grin:

I mean, TRUE bad variance would have had you with no chips to wash off. And the guy next to you would have been drinking sulphuric acid or something. And the pitboss would have cornholed you with a phonebook after eating your dog.

Twice.

 

[EasyRhino]

Twice.

Which part?

 

[blackchipjim]

variance

I geuss it's not really neg variance,but I think at the last table I played everyone was winning except my seat. I couldn't catch a set if my life depended on it with the count high and others making money without a clue and me sitting bleeding chips once again I bailed. I know it's just one big session in the life of player but enough is enough for one day,week,month.I'm still looking for really positive session when things work to my advantage instead of everyone else at the table. Case in point the guy at third base from the begining could do no wrong every bet almost every shoe he was kicking the dealer he made hundreds even stupid plays. I know in the long run advantage play will prevail but jeeeez. blackchipjim

 

[zengrifter]

I geuss it's not really neg variance,but I think at the last table I played everyone was winning except my seat. I couldn't catch a set if my life depended on it with the count high and others making money without a clue and me sitting bleeding chips once again I bailed. I know it's just one big session in the life of player but enough is enough for one day,week,month.I'm still looking for really positive session when things work to my advantage instead of everyone else at the table. Case in point the guy at third base from the begining could do no wrong every bet almost every shoe he was kicking the dealer he made hundreds even stupid plays. I know in the long run advantage play will prevail but jeeeez. blackchipjim

How can you consider 4-hrs of play ABOVE EV to be "negative" flux??? You sound like a gambler! zg

 

[blackchipjim]

gambler?

I don't know zg if I'm gambler in the context that you may be inplieing but I am a novice to say the least. I may use some terms that are used in this forum a little more loosely than I should. I geuss clarification of my post would be in order. I am in neg territory for the year. If I correctly understand the neg. var. terminogly I'm still down for the year not the session. I apoligize for the threads misstatement. I didn't mean to draw confusion to the terms' true meaning. I do appreciate your input and others when I ask questions it helps myself and others understand the mechanics of advantage play.Thanks

 

[zengrifter]

I don't know zg if I'm gambler in the context that you may be inplieing but I am a novice to say the least. I may use some terms that are used in this forum a little more loosely than I should. I geuss clarification of my post would be in order. I am in neg territory for the year. If I correctly understand the neg. var. terminogly I'm still down for the year not the session. I apoligize for the threads misstatement. I didn't mean to draw confusion to the terms' true meaning. I do appreciate your input and others when I ask questions it helps myself and others understand the mechanics of advantage play.Thanks

Define "year" in terms of total hours played, average bet spread and game-type, and current net result and then we can estimate how many SDs you are off and whether your play needs serious audit. zg

 

[blackchipjim]

low down

Ok here goes, ZG , I play 8d s17 doa dos no doubles on aces, no surrender, max split 3hands. I use KO with 18 indices with no wonging except out on neg counts at proper time. I bet 5min 50max 10min when I have to. I try to play with three or less players. My year started Nov 1 total hrs played aprox 160hrs any insight. I think I'm little to low on my spread? I've lost 1000 so far. Thanks blkchpjm

 

[SystemsTrader]

Ok here goes, ZG , I play 8d s17 doa dos no doubles on aces, no surrender, max split 3hands. I use KO with 18 indices with no wonging except out on neg counts at proper time. I bet 5min 50max 10min when I have to. I try to play with three or less players. My year started Nov 1 total hrs played aprox 160hrs any insight. I think I'm little to low on my spread? I've lost 1000 so far. Thanks blkchpjm

Ok blackchip at this point you should be at about $560 profit in a perfect world. Being down $1000 so far is not out of the question. You are playing a very weak game. Assuming 75% pen you should be making around $3.50/ hr. If you can afford it try spreading 1-20 it will more than double your return. I did a very quick sim so I did not calculate for you wonging out. You may want to try a backcounting only approach.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

How can you consider 4-hrs of play ABOVE EV to be "negative" flux??? You sound like a gambler! zg

No that's typical of a novice. My first 11 sessions were winners and when I finally had a loser I couldn't believe it either. It's a good sign, that a player has high standards for himself. But it does make the inevitable losses more painful. I still hate losing.

 

[ScottH]

No that's typical of a novice. My first 11 sessions were winners and when I finally had a loser I couldn't believe it either. It's a good sign, that a player has high standards for himself. But it does make the inevitable losses more painful. I still hate losing.

It's almost better for mentality to start out losing, so you expect it to happen. If you always win then the losing streak is that much harder mentally. I started out with some couple standard deviation downswings, so now it's no big deal. Of course I'd rather win, but I'm just looking on the bright side here!

 

[Preston]

UGh!

I just had my first losing session in 3 months and it sucks balls. I should have cappe dmy losses but I kept going. Knocking out $2000. My bankroll going into today was $6000. I guess I pressed my luck too far.

I started the year with a $2k bankroll, right now I've double that, so I guess I can't complain... but it sucks to make the walk of shame out to the parking lot.

 

[zengrifter]

I just had my first losing session in 3 months and it sucks balls. I should have capped my losses but I kept going.

No, "capping your losses" just drags out the inevitabl correction longer and reduces your EV for the day. It more efficient to take the dump all at once. zg

 

[Jeff25]

I just had my first losing session in 3 months and it sucks balls. I should have cappe dmy losses but I kept going. Knocking out $2000. My bankroll going into today was $6000. I guess I pressed my luck too far.

I started the year with a $2k bankroll, right now I've double that, so I guess I can't complain... but it sucks to make the walk of shame out to the parking lot.

First losing session in 3 months!
How often do you play?

 

[Preston]

First losing session in 3 months!
How often do you play?

I travel a for my job so my off days are spent at the tables. I'd say it averages out to about 3 sessions per week, usually lasting 6 hours actually playing. Depending on conditions determine if that is a straight session or a series of wong in and wong out.

My last losing session before this was Nov 29th. I lost $750. Since then, I've made back the $750, plus another $2000

My log book has 25 sessions listed right now for 2007. There is a week in Vegas in there too. This was the first real loser. Before that my lowest was $25, which was only an hour session in Cherokee NC.

 

[EasyRhino]

Cherokee NC.

Am I correct that there is no advantage to be had anywhere in Cherokee?

 

[shadroch]

Am I correct that there is no advantage to be had anywhere in Cherokee?

Buying a few cartons of cigs and reselling them in NYC is a great way to turn a profit.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I just had my first losing session in 3 months and it sucks balls. I should have cappe dmy losses but I kept going. Knocking out $2000. My bankroll going into today was $6000. I guess I pressed my luck too far.

I started the year with a $2k bankroll, right now I've double that, so I guess I can't complain... but it sucks to make the walk of shame out to the parking lot.

Yeah and you drive home real fast right? They call that taking the loser's lane home.

I had a real bad session out at Barona early in my career and walked away from the table with chest pains. Thank God it was only stress, but it was educational. Getting used to variance in BJ is a good paradigm for the variance in other areas of life.