negative variance strikes again

[Automatic Monkey]

No, "capping your losses" just drags out the inevitabl correction longer and reduces your EV for the day. It more efficient to take the dump all at once. zg

Right, for you, or for me, but if the losses are hurting you emotionally you had better quit and come back some other day when you can play your best game without steaming or underbetting out of fear. Both of those things can only make it worse.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Preston View Post
I just had my first losing session in 3 months and it sucks balls. I should have cappe dmy losses but I kept going. Knocking out $2000. My bankroll going into today was $6000. I guess I pressed my luck too far.

I started the year with a $2k bankroll, right now I've double that, so I guess I can't complain... but it sucks to make the walk of shame out to the parking lot.

Yeah and you drive home real fast right? They call that taking the loser's lane home.

I had a real bad session out at Barona early in my career and walked away from the table with chest pains. Thank God it was only stress, but it was educational. Getting used to variance in BJ is a good paradigm for the variance in other areas of life.

BJ is a good paradigm for the variance in other areas of life.
exactly right!
while i was on my circa year and a half positive variance blackjack run i was seeing all the other aspects of life from that dreamy paradigm.
then i hit some negative variance and started seeing the other aspects of life from that not so dreamy paradigm.
seems the experience of the negative variance with blackjack woke me up to some of the other aspects in my life that are not so rosey.
since the negative variance hit i've put the brakes on blackjack temporarily until i regain at least a sense of balance in my overall life paradigm.
this may sound silly to some but to me it is wise to have all aspects of ones life together as best as possible not just ones technical AP proficiency before going forth to do battle at the tables.

 

[EasyRhino]

I'd like to ask what you guys think about steaming. And if there's some doppleganger version of steaming that isn't dangerous.

I'm a pretty stubborn guy in general. In general, when faced with a problem, I keep working at it until it's fixed.

So, if I walk into a casino, and get my butt kicked early, I get pissed. My first reaction is to roll up my sleeves, and keep working at it until I win something, or until I drop from exhaustion.

Is this steaming? If not, what is it?

I don't change my manner of play at the tables. That's probably important. However, I do think I get a little bit less selective about where I play. I'm less choosy about wonging in or out, and I may be willing to sit at an otherwise unattractive table (crowded, bad pen, or uncomfortably high minimum when wonging in).

 

[sagefr0g]

I'd like to ask what you guys think about steaming. And if there's some doppleganger version of steaming that isn't dangerous.

I'm a pretty stubborn guy in general. In general, when faced with a problem, I keep working at it until it's fixed.

heh, heh same here. i'm like a pit bull when i sink my teeth into something good i a'int gonna let go for nothin.
like sex just keep workin on it till you get it right :devil:
but for blackjack there is a trap when it comes to tenaciousness as far as finding what works and what doesn't. some say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over that doesn't work. an ole saying is if you keep on doing what you've allways been doing then you'll keep on getting what you've allways been getting. when variance is involved it's easy to become confused regarding this issue. it's like the lesson most of us had to learn in our younger days, ie. the issue of is life good when things are going our way but not good when things aren't going our way? one mental mind trick for this dileama is the realization that most situations aren't going to persist infinitely. since most scenerios are finite we come to the realization that this too shall end. seems that good ole entropy is allways toying with us.
but the lesson learned i believe is when faced with negative variance it is probably a good time to pause and try some new ploy. the big question is though, is what you try going to be the result of true intellectual understanding or some hopeful but hopelessly blind tact. regarding blackjack what can be helpful is that you pull out of your bag of tricks a ploy that has greater EV. if you don't have that in your bag of tricks it's not such an easy thing and that's where i'm at right now.

So, if I walk into a casino, and get my butt kicked early, I get pissed. My first reaction is to roll up my sleeves, and keep working at it until I win something, or until I drop from exhaustion.

Is this steaming? If not, what is it?

i don't think this is steaming as long as you continue to employ true AP tactics.

I don't change my manner of play at the tables. That's probably important. However, I do think I get a little bit less selective about where I play. I'm less choosy about wonging in or out, and I may be willing to sit at an otherwise unattractive table (crowded, bad pen, or uncomfortably high minimum when wonging in).

this activity does seem to have an element of steaming to it.
the key here for understanding is our commitment to only play games that offer quality EV. when you think about it a given game of blackjack is composed of a lot of short term games. really each hand can be looked at that way. one way of looking at it is for each hand is the count positive or negative and you can also consider the implication that being forced to bet uncomfortably high holds with respect to each hand. what clouds this issue is the practical conumdrun of needing to pay the premium of waiting bets inorder to gleen the juicy positive EV. one cloud with a silver lining with respect to this issue is that we sometimes win those waiting bets when the EV is less than optimal but the downside is the fact that we sometimes lose the positive EV bets as well. whats the key point here is finding a way to strike a balance where we make each 'game' played the highest EV possible.
how to do that? i dunno but that's the gist of what i'm musing over durring my sabbatical. part of what is of key importance is having the optimal bet size for each 'game'.

by the way i saw your dear diary post inwhich you related how you keep having this uneasy waiting for the other shoe to drop feeling.
that is basicly what happened to me. i put a stop to it and that is why i'm on my 'sabbatical'. i know that stopping play can't put an end to negative variance but finding more EV can at least help. so far i still have the greatest bulk of my winnings. the plan is to keep that and make it grow

 

[blackchipjim]

spread ?

Thanks for the advice on my spreading but 1-20 is a bit much for my br at present time. Wonging out is about the only play I can do without drawing attention to myself.The casino I play at regulaurly would get wise to wonging in and out in no time flat. This is the closiest casino and really the best for me to play and practice. They know me probably too well, but I recieve no heat whatsoever. I may try to increase my spread when the br increases since it is a replenishably one. Thanks blackchipjim

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks for the advice on my spreading but 1-20 is a bit much for my br at present time.

That statement makes NO SENSE!!! You just said that using a smaller min-bet is too much for your BR! zg

 

[Preston]

Right, for you, or for me, but if the losses are hurting you emotionally you had better quit and come back some other day when you can play your best game without steaming or underbetting out of fear. Both of those things can only make it worse.

I know the last $1k was me just not playing my best game. That and when I got the casino conditions were not optimal. I think the moment I started to really be off my game was when a ploppy split 5's and it ended up costing me over $300. I had one of those re-split after re-split.. double down on the splits hands. Had that not happened I probably wouldn't have lost control. I still played a solid game for a while after that, but once I got around the $1000 is when things started to fall apart.

I have literally spent the past 48 hours thinking about what I did wrong. And I have learned.

I took out my chip set yesterday and used my system. Starting with $500 in fake money I turned it into $3400 in about an hour of practice. Too bad the sessions couldn't have been reversed.

 

[Preston]

Am I correct that there is no advantage to be had anywhere in Cherokee?

None whatsoever. The session was one where I was finding out the conditions. While playing I got the info I needed. Avoid the place.

The only reason I was up was because I was down $25, bet $25 and had a double down that worked out. So once I was past the "even" point I high tailed out of there.

6 decks. at best 50% penetration. I posted about it in another section of the forum.

 

[EasyRhino]

I still played a solid game for a while after that, but once I got around the $1000 is when things started to fall apart.

I have literally spent the past 48 hours thinking about what I did wrong. And I have learned.

So... what did you do wrong?

I think I've got three things that I can think of where I've gone "on tilt", or at least on "baby tilt":

1) Sit at down at a full shoe table of a shoe game where my bet spread is constrained to 5x by table minimums, and not be wonging. While I estimate this isn't a losing proposition, it's probably a waste of time with needless risk.

2) Get "trapped" at a table with a $15 min where the count was formerly positive, but is not plummeting, because I'm waiting on a comp ticket from a floorman.

3) And worst of all, sat down at a three-card poker table, because all of the BJ tables were full. At least I realized I was purely gambling, and had a very strict loss limit in mind when I sat down (even got them to lower the table mins). I also got a three of a kind as soon as I sat down, which was kind of a perverse reward for sloppy behavior.

 

[Preston]

So... what did you do wrong?

1) I overbet my bankroll. And raised my bets too soon.
2) I continued to play in less than optimal conditions
3) I chased losses and let my emotions take control
4) I went against my instincts.
5) I made plays against my better judgement.
6) I pressed bets at the wrong time.

that's a general list from my blog I've been keeping.

 

[zengrifter]

The session was one where I was finding out the conditions. While playing I got the info I needed. Avoid the place.

That's funny! zg

 

[Preston]

It's electronic, they claim 6 decks. The rules are mediocre at best. Some tables hit soft 17, some don't.

The dealers aren't the brightest either... I asked if there was surrender and I received "What's that?"

One of the dealers said that 3 decks are actually dealt out. I don't think this is even true.

After I was done playing I took a step back at the various tables and counted the number of cards that came out before the "shuffle". It was usually around 100 cards. Maybe my math is off, but that would be only about 2 decks penetration. gouging if you ask me.

 

[EasyRhino]

1) I overbet my bankroll. And raised my bets too soon.
2) I continued to play in less than optimal conditions
3) I chased losses and let my emotions take control
4) I went against my instincts.
5) I made plays against my better judgement.
6) I pressed bets at the wrong time.

Except for 4, those sound pretty bad.

!! Got a link to your blog?

 

[sagefr0g]

1) I overbet my bankroll. And raised my bets too soon.
2) I continued to play in less than optimal conditions
3) I chased losses and let my emotions take control
4) I went against my instincts.
5) I made plays against my better judgement.
6) I pressed bets at the wrong time.

that's a general list from my blog I've been keeping.

i've done this also.... whats led to it for me was a combination of frustration creating events...
becoming frustrated by the simple fact that the dealer wins so often and in such mind boggling ways. such as when you play your heart out with a crappy starting hand to make a pat hand of 19 or 20 and then the dealer pulls a 21,
you double down on an eleven pull an ace. ect ect.
playing through an advantageous shoe doing everything just right and then losing your big bets.
or the situation where shoe after shoe is crap and offers no advantage.....
these things if you let them will mess with your mind and tempt you to lose patience to the point where you'll make the mistakes of 1-6 listed above.

 

[mdlbj]

None whatsoever. The session was one where I was finding out the conditions. While playing I got the info I needed. Avoid the place.

The only reason I was up was because I was down $25, bet $25 and had a double down that worked out. So once I was past the "even" point I high tailed out of there.

6 decks. at best 50% penetration. I posted about it in another section of the forum.

There is an advantage if you can wong into a positive count. But its boring as shit.

 

[NDN21]

No that's typical of a novice. My first 11 sessions were winners and when I finally had a loser I couldn't believe it either. It's a good sign, that a player has high standards for himself. But it does make the inevitable losses more painful. I still hate losing.

High standards is one thing, totally wrong terminology and application of knowledge is another.

What other mistakes is he making that he is unaware of?

If I were this person I would go back and go over my fundamentals some more. To make such a basic mistake in playing calculations may be a sign that you are not doing other things as they should be done.

Let's analyze a situation. Let's suppose a player went out on his first trip and won $10,000 playing blackjack. Now that same player has continued to play blackjack but this time the player has losing at least $500 a session for 5 sessions which is negative variance.

By Blackchipjim's standards this player would still be experiencing positive flux since he still has won more $ than he has lost.

The player may be making massive mistakes for an advantage player. But the player may be thinking he is playing well since he is incorrectly calculating the variance which he thinks has only been positive up to this point when it actually has been positive only once and negative since his first trip.

How can the player identify his mistakes if the player doesn't know he is doing anything wrong?

Sorry blackchipjim but I would go back and re-read about the fundamentals of the game.

 

[blackchipjim]

neg var?

Either I'm coming across wrong with this thread or I'm saying something the wrong way. I think the problem with my game maybe the total bet min to max not the way I play just the amounts with regard to counts. I have read in other threads that by not betting enough you can't overcome the var. If you look back in the threads? blackchipjim

 

[21forme]

By not having a large enough bet spread, you can't overcome the -EV. Variance actually goes up with the spread. There's a difference between the two.

 

[Preston]

By not having a large enough bet spread, you can't overcome the -EV. Variance actually goes up with the spread. There's a difference between the two.

Very True.

Up until the loser I had a number of sessions where I would have a $1500 downward swing and then end up making it all back within the next hour plus a profit. It's gut wrenching but I expect it.