MD2 shufflers & my cheating theory
suicyco maniac said:
I posted a link to shufflemasters webpage and a pic of their MD2 shuffler. Can you confirm if this is the shuffler you are referring to?
edit I see you confirmed its an MD2
I'm curious because I've witnessed some unusual events on these machines and I know some other seasoned pros who are questioning them as well.
Really? What sort of unusual events? Anything like what I've described, i.e., high-low stacking?
Incidentally, tonight, at home, I high-low stacked six decks of cards (throwing in a few neutrals here and there, just as cover) and dealt them from the shoe I recently bought. The results were remarkable: even allowing for occasional deviations from basic strategy (namely, the most common errors committed by so-called "ploppies"), and regardless of the number of imaginary players (I tried it with 1-4), the players pretty consistently lost. I think the total ratio of losing to winning hands was something like 3:1 (about 75 out of 100). Counting would have been useless, as the count seldom strayed far from 0 in either direction. Moreover, players doubling-down would have gotten reamed, just as I did last night.
Obviously this is just a theory I've no way to prove; it may well be, as another poster suggested, that I simply ran up against a "patch of bad luck." That was precisely what I told myself as I returned twice to the ATM, convinced my "luck" would change any second. But, looking back on it now that I've had a chance to rest and am clear-headed again, that seems difficult to believe. There was just TOO much bad luck for too long, experienced by every single player I spoke to. We were ALL getting (repeatedly and collectively) murdered. And since there are so few tables at this particular casino, this otherwise anecdotal evidence is actually quite reliable as a general indicator of "mass misfortune."
More specifically, too many people were getting slaughtered, time and time again, on their splits and double-downs (exactly how counters normally exploit their edge to its fullest). At one point a guy sat down next to me, cashed in for $300 in greens, and, having made 2 or 3 perfectly sensible DD's & splits, was broke literally w/in 15 mins. I think he may have won 1 out of his 13 or 14 hands. The guy to my right ran through close to $1,000 in less than an hour. The players, needless to say, were uniformly appalled. There was only one table, out of the three I played on, where the players (including me) experienced a substantial "winning steak." (It later quickly nosedived and I was back to almost a grand-in-the-hole by sunup.) Tellingly, when I began to voice my suspicions, only half-jokingly, that the decks were "layered," i.e., high-low stacked, two of the dealers grinned bashfully and said, "It's been like this all night."
Okay, so we all know that even extreme variance in the game of blackjack, attributable purely to chance, is far from uncommon. However, what I encountered at this casino seemed to defy, not only statistical LIKELIHOOD, but outright statistical POSSIBILITY. How else could a fairly well-practiced counter, achieving consistently favorable results when playing at home or on CVBJ, win over $1,000 in 24 hrs. and then lose $1,700 in 16 hrs? Are there any math whizzes on here who could compute for me the statistical probability of that? The standard deviation would be off the charts, surely.
Of even more interest to me, are there any other members of the forum who have had, or know of others who have had, similar experiences at this particular casino?
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