Noob, playing BS
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Sonny
Well-Known Member
Wanna bet? Twenty bad hands in a row (including splits and doubles as "hands") is a very real possibility. And even if you don’t get 20 in a row, that doesn’t mean that you won’t still go broke. What if you lose 7, win 1, lose 8, win 2, and lose another 8. You’re still broke either way. There is no reason to think that things will “swing the other way” and you will win your money back. Statistically, that is the least likely thing to happen. The house still has the edge so you should expect to keep losing.
-Sonny-
bad night tonight
Hey guys,
well me and my friend lost our entire BR tonight of £120. It finally had to happen I guess.
The feeling of losing is so crushing though.
First off tonight, I played at a 6 deck game, 80% pen, wonged in when the RC was +20 (!) and won 3 hands. So I doubled my money while waiting for my friend to show up. Good start but things rapidly went downhill.
We both tried wonging when TC >= +3, but lost every single time.
Hit the casino next door, dealer didn't mind us sitting at the table. Waited until TC +2 then entered the game. Lost half of BR.
We kept waiting until the TC was positive until playing but no-one seemed to mind. The dealer asked a few times if we wanted to play but I just said "nah, i'm not feeling it right now".
Waited until TC of +3, but kept losing. Really could not understand why!
We sloped off totally dejected, vowing to win it back - which itself was freaky as that's a total sucker gambler thing to think.
The way forward: My friend just wants to play BS but I want to wong in and never play a negative count.
On the positive, it was good realising that our counting is solid and that we're slowly becoming APs.
Hey guys,
well me and my friend lost our entire BR tonight of £120. It finally had to happen I guess.
The feeling of losing is so crushing though.
First off tonight, I played at a 6 deck game, 80% pen, wonged in when the RC was +20 (!) and won 3 hands. So I doubled my money while waiting for my friend to show up. Good start but things rapidly went downhill.
We both tried wonging when TC >= +3, but lost every single time.
Hit the casino next door, dealer didn't mind us sitting at the table. Waited until TC +2 then entered the game. Lost half of BR.
We kept waiting until the TC was positive until playing but no-one seemed to mind. The dealer asked a few times if we wanted to play but I just said "nah, i'm not feeling it right now".
Waited until TC of +3, but kept losing. Really could not understand why!
We sloped off totally dejected, vowing to win it back - which itself was freaky as that's a total sucker gambler thing to think.
The way forward: My friend just wants to play BS but I want to wong in and never play a negative count.
On the positive, it was good realising that our counting is solid and that we're slowly becoming APs.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I'm afraid so. With a 24-unit bankroll you are very likely to go broke in a single hour of play. Over several hours it is even more likely. Your long term risk of ruin was probably around 90% so it was almost inevitable. The swings in this game can be very steep and a lot of card counters have gone broke because they weren't prepared for the variance. The good news is that you got some experience and you will be ready to play an even stronger game once you have a bankroll. You can use this "down time" to learn about risk management techniques for your next bankroll.
-Sonny-
Is my calculation is right?
I took 2 basic strategies from here:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php?numdecks=6+decks&soft17=s17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ns&peek=no
one with surrender, other no.
The one with surrender offer (there are 17 propabileties of surrender, and edge casino is(whriten there) -0.08 %)
The other strategy without surrender(edge 0.55%)
the problem is that in my cassino those sons of biches won't let me surrender againts ace.
So i do with my weak mind that lost 4,3 thounsands litas and has no well paid job, calculate this:
1)0.55 + 0.08=0,63 the difference
2)0.63:17=0.0371 x 6=0.22235 (since i have 6 reasonable propabileties of surrender)
3) 0.55-0.22235=0.32765
0.32765 So that is the advantage that my casino has againts me?
I took 2 basic strategies from here:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php?numdecks=6+decks&soft17=s17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ns&peek=no
one with surrender, other no.
The one with surrender offer (there are 17 propabileties of surrender, and edge casino is(whriten there) -0.08 %)
The other strategy without surrender(edge 0.55%)
the problem is that in my cassino those sons of biches won't let me surrender againts ace.
So i do with my weak mind that lost 4,3 thounsands litas and has no well paid job, calculate this:
1)0.55 + 0.08=0,63 the difference
2)0.63:17=0.0371 x 6=0.22235 (since i have 6 reasonable propabileties of surrender)
3) 0.55-0.22235=0.32765
0.32765 So that is the advantage that my casino has againts me?
I'm not exactly sure what you are doing but if the one game has a HA of 0.55% without surrender and a 0.47% HA with surrender, then surrender, by itself, is worth 0.08% to the player.
Not completely sure but I think surrender vs dealer Ace isn't worth very much of that 0.08% total and almost all of it is becasue of being able to surrender vs 10. So, if you can surrender vs 10 I'd guess it's be close to a 0.47% HA. Call it 0.48% lol.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
well for example for a six deck s17 game 75% pen
if you can surrender against ace & ten ha = -0.5168
if you can not surrender against ace but can the ten ha = -0.5217
a differance of 0.0049 between the two. not much i guess. maybe you got a big bet out i guess it becomes more important?
hey Marius what are the exact rules?
........surrender 10 & Ace ...... ................................................. surrender 10 only
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sagefrog
rules:
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Double Any 2 Cards
Double After Split Allowed
Early Surrender(can't surrender first 2 cards, but can't surrender againt's almighty sanawabich ace)
No peek (European style)
6decks, csm shoe i think(that eletronic black sanavabich)
How much game can u play in approximately in a hour, lets say the table is played by 4 hands or people.
want to calculate is it worth to go in casino, and limit how much i can stay.
rules:
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Double Any 2 Cards
Double After Split Allowed
Early Surrender(can't surrender first 2 cards, but can't surrender againt's almighty sanawabich ace)
No peek (European style)
6decks, csm shoe i think(that eletronic black sanavabich)
How much game can u play in approximately in a hour, lets say the table is played by 4 hands or people.
want to calculate is it worth to go in casino, and limit how much i can stay.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
hey don't go to the bank on this. i'm not sure i'm doing this right!
are you sure it's Early Surrender ?
is it maybe Late Surrender?
this seems similar to Lisboa rules depicted here:
http://wizardofmacau.com/games/blackjack.html
well any way if it's early surrender and a shoe game with 75% pen here's what i get for if it's allowed for 10 and for if it's allowed for 10 & ACE.
not sure if the edge would be the same for a basic strategy player against a csm or not. hopefully some one who knows will comment.
..................................early surrender not allowed for ace............................early surrender allowed 10 & Ace
................................... but ok for all other cards...................................... and all other cards
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callipygian
Well-Known Member
The percent of hands you win does not vary appreciably with the count. You go from a 42.5% win rate to a 43% win rate between a TC of 0 and +5.
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm
The true count needs to be +17 before you will win more hands than you lose.