odd breakdown of results

[jupitor88]

he had the luck of the irish with him!

 

[JohnCrover]

I have shared a year where my results were about a third of expectation for the entire year. 29 thousand dollars I won for the entire year! vs expectation of 86 thousand dollars!

I would consider that good luck. That's probably not even close to -2SD.

 

[jupitor88]

so making 29 grand a year is a bad bad ? WoW all i can say to that, im sure the Kool jay in 2004 would have luved making 29k a year instead of a mere 10 grand, i can't wait to wait 10 years into the future and read how Kewl is making 60 or 90 grand a year!

 

[KewlJ]

so making 29 grand a year is a bad bad ? WoW all i can say to that, im sure the Kool jay in 2004 would have luved making 29k a year instead of a mere 10 grand, i can't wait to wait 10 years into the future and read how Kewl is making 60 or 90 grand a year!

You are just a weirdo.

 

[jupitor88]

im sorry man i just think your a fictional character but that shouldn;'t bother you if your crackin the casinos for 30-60 grand a year just think 10 years from now you can retire all that cash flow your making, buy up properties in montana like Bruce willis and his wife and rent them out to people like your former self, or sign a contract with the history channel like pawnstars did and you won't have to gamble any more just live on an island with naked college girls and signal them up for sexing you

how easy that Kewljay? in the mean time we have Johnny over here trying to hold on to his bankroll or whats left of it and pretty much the entire forum told him to quit and get a job save it will tuffen you up! so the story can fucking end the same instead of losing 10k he can lose 30k and work for the house

 

[KewlJ]

What a life, jupitor88. Trolling, banning, sock puppets and bitterness. Doesn't it get tiring? It gets tiring for us.

 

[jupitor88]

i think all the players up to this point who went flat broke would agree with me
im not a sock puppet nor bitter.
why are you replying if it gets tiring?
no lucky larry? that dude is crazy he thinks i play negative VP games haha
but over all yea if i can save the next Johnny boy who loses 9grand then i did better than you you fictional character you =) but again if i was making 30k or 70k at gambling i wouldn't be on this forum, im on this forum to read to learn to interact but all i found was gambling is gambling and counting cards is just that gambling with an edge has little meaning to John right now as it did to the previous counters of yester year =/

 

[JohnCrover]

I don't think telling people to not count cards because they might get unlucky is the correct way to go about it.
I also don't regret my decision to count cards even though I'm losing. I took a calculated risk, am taking a calculated risk, and it's just not working out but the notion that Colin Jones and others try to perpetuate with their feel-good stories that all you need to do is work hard and get in the hours to be successful is not the case. That may be their experience, but it's not everyone's.

 

[jupitor88]

John if your playing for entertainment purposes then what i said does not apply, BUT BELIEVING YOU CAN WIN thats different id rather you try the stock trades, live poker, hell maybe even bitcoin just feels like BJ21 is not the way to go for making $$$

i also disagree you did make a choice but on a unconscious level you were tricked and brainwashed and didn't know it and your 2nd personality is trying to rationalize things now i was there too until i read forums how people lost there bankrolls not bankrolls of 500$ bankrolls of 4grand 8k and upwards of 12,000$ thats real money, Casino verite engine shuffles don't mimic real life shuffles id be a millionaire if they did

 

[JohnCrover]

I have shared a year where my results were about a third of expectation for the entire year. 29 thousand dollars I won for the entire year! vs expectation of 86 thousand dollars! Wow that was some good luck!

Can we just take a second to appreciate the privilege here? Imagine being so lucky that you think running fat 1/3 of EV is bad luck.
I would give my left testicle to run at 1/3 EV for the rest of my life.

 

[KewlJ]

Can we just take a second to appreciate the privilege here? Imagine being so lucky that you think running fat 1/3 of EV is bad luck.
I would give my left testicle to run at 1/3 EV for the rest of my life.

Look, I don't know what is going on here with you clowns (JohnClover, Jupitor/steve and others), hijacking every thread (and basically the entire forum) and challenging the math and many, many players throughout the community that have won and continue to win playing blackjack with a mathematical advantage?

YES there is variance, great variance and at time deep negative swings associated with card counting blackjack play. That is why a large bankroll is necessary and just as important a strong understanding of the math and the mental ability to handle these sometimes long losing periods. I have gone out of my way to share my journey, my experiences in it's entirety, including these swings. I have had 5 different 6 month periods of losing. That is roughly 40-50 thousand rounds!. This happens! Part of the game. You have to be prepared mentally as well as financially to handle these swings if you want to play seriously.

I think the problem is you guys are looking at very short-term results and drawing whatever conclusions from them, because I see numbers like 10,000 rounds, 20, 000 rounds being thrown around. Again, I have had 5 different losing periods lasting 40,000 to 50,000 rounds! I don't even want to guess how many 10,000 round losing periods I have had. You guys freaking out over this kind of a sample size, just proves you don't understand the basics principals of the game needed to succeed. I don't know how many times I can say, blackjack card counting is a long-term deal. Many, MANY hills and valleys.

So now you guys (and others) have taken to attacking not only me, but many other players, not only on this forum, but throughout the community that win and win by the math, including Mr. Schlesinger. How dare you! It is a wonder players like Don and others are so tolerant as to put up with this shit.

Again, I don't know what is going on with you handful of guys, whether on the far end of the bell curve experiencing real bad short-term results, or more likely, holes in your game, bad spreads and ramps, bad games and conditions, or mental things like chasing losses ect. BUT this is not a conspiracy against you as you are alleging. All the many counters on various forums that have had and continue to have success are not plants by the casinos. Give me a fucking break.

Again, I have no idea what you guys are doing, how solid your game is, but I am not going to apologize for winning and winning playing exactly by the math of the game.

addon: And yes, John Crover, playing a full year, I believe it was 87,000 rounds and ending up 1/3 of expectation is a bad year!

 

[KewlJ]

There simply is no way to avoid variance and swings with blackjack card counting! Either understand this and be prepared, or move on to something else.

There have been a couple guys in this community claiming they can win without variance. They are full of shit! One was the "super duper count guy" at BJTF. He claimed his super duper count allowed him to win with very little variance. This was just part of his claim that was complete bullshit. And eventually he was completely debunked and slinked away.

The second is the lunatic up in Reno, who claims he plays Single deck with little or no variance. At least there is some basis to this claim, as decent single decks game with reasonable penetration will result in a reduction of these big swings. Problem is these games are all but extinct. You can play them in Reno and that's about all and for very low stakes, making peanuts. And even then, you are going to be able to get away with it for days, maybe a couple weeks at best.

So there is an option for you. Go to Reno and play blackjack spreading $5-$15 for a week or two at best. OR learn to handle and deal with the swings and variance that is part of real blackjack card counting. So that is your choice, but stop attacking players that understand the game, are prepared for and deal with the variance. And stop attacking Don Schlesinger. For all he has done for so many in the community, he shouldn't have to endure that nonsense from a couple crybabies that just aren't prepared for what they are doing and are bitter at the world.

 

[jupitor88]

There simply is no way to avoid variance and swings with blackjack card counting! Either understand this and be prepared, or move on to something else.

There have been a couple guys in this community claiming they can win without variance. They are full of shit! One was the "super duper count guy" at BJTF. He claimed his super duper count allowed him to win with very little variance. This was just part of his claim that was complete bullshit. And eventually he was completely debunked and slinked away.

The second is the lunatic up in Reno, who claims he plays Single deck with little or no variance. At least there is some basis to this claim, as decent single decks game with reasonable penetration will result in a reduction of these big swings. Problem is these games are all but extinct. You can play them in Reno and that's about all and for very low stakes, making peanuts. And even then, you are going to be able to get away with it for days, maybe a couple weeks at best.

So there is an option for you. Go to Reno and play blackjack spreading $5-$15 for a week or two at best. OR learn to handle and deal with the swings and variance that is part of real blackjack card counting. So that is your choice, but stop attacking players that understand the game, are prepared for and deal with the variance. And stop attacking Don Schlesinger. For all he has done for so many in the community, he shouldn't have to endure that nonsense from a couple crybabies that just aren't prepared for what they are doing and are bitter at the world.

you hear that John? being ahead 25 grand is horrible when your suppose to be ahead 87grand! oh well can't win em all! did you lose all John and ended up replenishing your BR? No ones hi-jacked anything, we are real people, with real bankrolls and the the losing streaks are real and long lasting, what this BJ game boils down to is who has the bigger BR? ofcourse the edge has to be and needs to be siting "there" to be having a wining game otherwise may as well play a triple zero wheel at roulette, so John is there an edge "siting there" for you to scoop up? Punch in more hands and suck it up? took KJ 3 years to to get his standard deviation right Play on John and reach hand #33400 maybe things will turn around if you still have a BR left

and as for us nay sayers we are always here pointing out the obvious if i told my co workers about this "BJ adventure they would look at me like im MR retard" but apparently if my name i LC LARRY or Bosox or KJ then im a genius what else is there?


P.S to John you should have just joined the church team back in 2007 and played off the church teams bankroll they had well over a mil, that peanuts compared tor 5 grand or 9 grand or where ever you are at this endeavor

 

[JohnCrover]

And stop attacking Don Schlesinger.

Please don't put words in my mouth. I never mentioned Don one time.

 

[MrFatCat]

So there is an option for you. Go to Reno and play blackjack spreading $5-$15 for a week or two at best.

Reno would literally back you off for $5-15? I am never going there.

I think you need to discover the "ignore" button J -- if you click on their profile name, you can either "Follow" or "Ignore" -- it just makes it so the ignored content doesn't even show up in your thread. It's wonderful. Give it a shot!

I think JohnCrover is legit tbh, although I think he's short-rolled and probably making a mistake trying to do this at all. I've got a square job and a different +EV pursuit, and have done RoR math for ~15 years now, so I've got a concept of how risky my 1-20 spread with a $10 unit is (very, tbh, but gambo gambo!).

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I resent this implication from Steve, now Jupitor.

It took me 3 years at the beginning of my career to grow my bankroll from $4300 to $10,000. Three years! It took that long because I didn't hit some sort of great win streak.

How many hours did you play total for the 3 years that it took? 2,000 hours?

 

[xengrifter]

So there is an option for you. Go to Reno and play blackjack spreading $5-$15 for a week or two at best.

Really, that bad?

 

[KewlJ]

How many hours did you play total for the 3 years that it took? 2,000 hours?

While I no longer have records from that early part of my career, it was much greater than 2000 hours total for the 3 years. I also don't track play in terms of hours or time. I track by rounds played.

Low limit, $5 play in Atlantic City at that time meant very limited opportunities. Bally's Wild West, Trump Taj and the Hilton/Bally's grand property at the far southern end of the strip had $5 tables most weekday mornings from about 7 am until 11am/noon when the daily bus exertions rolled into town and they all raised to $10. Wild West went back to $5 some weekday evenings for a couple hours before shutting down the tables for the night. During afternoons, evenings and overnight, with the exception of that 2 hour window at Wild west the only option was the single $5 table that Borgata always offered and there was usually a fight to get to that table.

So like I said, options were limited and getting in play was not very efficient and took planning. And while I didn't track play by hours or time, I would estimate I got in 25 hours a week play (probably spending close tp 50 hours a week to get that play). So that would be 1300ish a year, or closer to 4000 hours total. It was hard work at that level at that time for me. Why do you ask?

Add on: and while there were no side bets at that time slowing down the game (other than insurance), ALL of these options resulted in a crowed table and very slow game. The 100 rounds an hour that a lot of players and software use as standard was a fantasy. You were lucky to get half that.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

While I no longer have records from that early part of my career, it was much greater than 2000 hours total for the 3 years. I also don't track play in terms of hours or time. I track by rounds played.

Low limit, $5 play in Atlantic City at that time meant very limited opportunities. Bally's Wild West, Trump Taj and the Hilton/Bally's grand property at the far southern end of the strip had $5 tables most weekday mornings from about 7 am until 11am/noon when the daily bus exertions rolled into town and they all raised to $10. Wild West went back to $5 some weekday evenings for a couple hours before shutting down the tables for the night. During afternoons, evenings and overnight, with the exception of that 2 hour window at Wild west the only option was the single $5 table that Borgata always offered and there was usually a fight to get to that table.

So like I said, options were limited and getting in play was not very efficient and took planning. And while I didn't track play by hours or time, I would estimate I got in 25 hours a week play (probably spending close tp 50 hours a week to get that play). So that would be 1300ish a year, or closer to 4000 hours total. It was hard work at that level at that time for me. Why do you ask?

Add on: and while there were no side bets at that time slowing down the game (other than insurance), ALL of these options resulted in a crowed table and very slow game. The 100 rounds an hour that a lot of players and software use as standard was a fantasy. You were lucky to get half that.

I ask because I started card counting this February...im at 450 hours. Just like seeing the math results, that is all. Can you give me a rough idea of bank roll/how much you make per hour/etc.?

I should be making around $8/hr based on EV but I am only making $2.40/hr at the moment. Ah well, it is what it is.

 

[KewlJ]

I am afraid I can't really. It was too long ago. I remember figuring or thinking that expectation was 7-800 a month, but I don't know how I even came up with that as it was before I has software to figure that. I know I needed and took a minimum of about $600 a month to pay my half of rent, food and travel expenses. And I was able to take this every month but two, which is rather amazing. BUT, it also explains why my bankroll didn't grow much during these years.

Low limit play is really hard. Those tables have the worse conditions, crowding and sometimes even worse rules. And now with so many side bets, which the casinos love because they have a higher house edge, so they sometimes stack up to 3 sides bets on a table, which would make for a very, very slow game at crowded tables. Hard as it was for me just 15 years ago, I wouldn't want to be playing low level trying to build Bankroll or god forbid....live off the earnings in today's environment.

This probably won't help you and you and other low limit players may not want to hear this, but with the benefit of hindsight, I would not attempt today, what I did just 15 years ago. If I was starting out would work a while longer, build up a bigger bankroll, so as to be able to start out playing higher limits and making more (reasonable) money.

The other thing I would change based on hindsight is I would not play rated at low stakes. When I was playing low stakes, I played rated. They actually gave back a little for blackjack play (most places give almost nothing for blackjack play now). So back then the little bit of EV that I got back in terms of comps and offers (monthly matchplays and food and later free rooms) added to my expectation. At that level percentage-wise seemed somewhat significant. But in the long run it just isn't worth it. The downside for me was after playing very low limit rated for several years, when I finally did start to move up in stakes, I had burned out both my name and face and it didn't take long before I was not welcome. Almost as soon as I moved up in stakes.

If I had a do-over, it would be to save more and begin playing with a bigger bankroll, playing higher stakes and not playing rated at small stakes, maybe not ever. I don't play blackjack rated now (except a few select cases) and it serves me well.