Pairs strategy

[blackchipjim]

On my visit to Vegas last week I played at some tables that have pairs bet that played 10 to 1 on the pairs bet. I did a little experiment and it seemed to work out pretty well. When the count would rise to a 2,3,4, advantage I would put out the bet on pairs to see if my suspicsions were correct. I won in really positive counts drawing queens or tens or kings at a good rate. Does anyone have insight or stats or theory on the pairs bets. blackchipjim

 

[RJT]

Think this belongs in 'Blackjack Variations' where side bets are discussed.

RJT.

 

[Brock Windsor]

On my visit to Vegas last week I played at some tables that have pairs bet that played 10 to 1 on the pairs bet. I did a little experiment and it seemed to work out pretty well. When the count would rise to a 2,3,4, advantage I would put out the bet on pairs to see if my suspicsions were correct. I won in really positive counts drawing queens or tens or kings at a good rate. Does anyone have insight or stats or theory on the pairs bets. blackchipjim

Just my instincts, but I can't see a standard counting system being correlated enough to be profitable, the count would need to be extremely high. It's not like Lucky Ladies where you are getting paid on hands of 20. If you already sidecount aces or 7's with your system (or anything else) once the number of aces made up greater than 10% of the cards remaining then betting on the aces to pair becomes profitable. But you have to bet on ANY pair, which I think would mean a particular rank remaining must be in extremely high abundance to become a profitable bet (much greater than 10%) probably happens very infrequently.... That's not to say this bet is not beatable by very advanced methods. If you can sequence the shuffle for pairs from the previous round you could crush the casino, very difficult to do I would think.

BW

 

[Brock Windsor]

Just my instincts, but I can't see a standard counting system being correlated enough to be profitable, the count would need to be extremely high. It's not like Lucky Ladies where you are getting paid on hands of 20. If you already sidecount aces or 7's with your system (or anything else) once the number of aces made up greater than 10% of the cards remaining then betting on the aces to pair becomes profitable. But you have to bet on ANY pair, which I think would mean a particular rank remaining must be in extremely high abundance to become a profitable bet (much greater than 10%) probably happens very infrequently.... That's not to say this bet is not beatable by very advanced methods. If you can sequence the shuffle for pairs from the previous round you could crush the casino, very difficult to do I would think.

BW

I think you would need almost 1/3 of the cards remaining to be the same rank for this bet to be profitable. Not realistically going to happen, even in a deeply dealt shoe game

 

[RJT]

That's not to say this bet is not beatable by very advanced methods. If you can sequence the shuffle for pairs from the previous round you could crush the casino, very difficult to do I would think.

BW

Not possible. You are talking about landing 2 cards on one hand, so they would have to be the perfect number of cards apart in the first place and then you would have to land the first card. And hoping that the dealer was accurate enough to have the 2nd card where you wanted it is too much to ask for.
If however you were to keep a side count of one denomination of cards then sequence that one card when the deck is rich in them, that could push it into achievable, but overall i doubt it's worth the effort.

RJT.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Not possible. You are talking about landing 2 cards on one hand, so they would have to be the perfect number of cards apart in the first place and then you would have to land the first card. And hoping that the dealer was accurate enough to have the 2nd card where you wanted it is too much to ask for.
If however you were to keep a side count of one denomination of cards then sequence that one card when the deck is rich in them, that could push it into achievable, but overall i doubt it's worth the effort.

RJT.

It's possible and very profitable, with the right shuffle and table conditions. It's beatable under the same principles as the Match The Dealer sidebet, which is actually a bit of a better choice for this kind of attack.

 

[RJT]

It's possible and very profitable, with the right shuffle and table conditions. It's beatable under the same principles as the Match The Dealer sidebet, which is actually a bit of a better choice for this kind of attack.

Crap. Landing 2 cards in one hand off the deal isn't even steering. You might get the opportunity presents itself once in a blue moon, but it's never going to be reliable or profitable. Too much dealer dependency and too little player control.
As i stated at the end, steering a card that there is a high proportion of left in the shoe might work, but i doubt it's going to generate the EV to make it worth the effort.

RJT.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Crap. Landing 2 cards in one hand off the deal isn't even steering. You might get the opportunity presents itself once in a blue moon, but it's never going to be reliable or profitable. Too much dealer dependency and too little player control....
RJT.

Wrong approach. You can get 2-5% with obviously high variance at a local store to me, and it depends on what seat you are sitting in, and the rest of the story is not suitable for a public message board.

 

[RJT]

Wrong approach. You can get 2-5% with obviously high variance at a local store to me, and it depends on what seat you are sitting in, and the rest of the story is not suitable for a public message board.

Well i'd be delighted to hear about it sometime.

RJT.

 

[suicyco maniac]

Well i'd be delighted to hear about it sometime.

RJT.

Me too!

 

[ortango]

I would love to know the index

The wizard of odds calls this Dare Any Pair. Most places pay this 11 to 1, and with the odds being 13 to 1 of getting a pair, the house gets 11.25% edge on a six deck, getting even worse as shoe gets smaller. Unfortunately, he doesn't present an index where this gets profitable, but I would really like to know this number. Even if it was really high I think it exists and is practical.

Obviously, anyone playing this is automatically dismissed in my mind as being an AP. What really bugs me about this sidebet is how long people take to bet on it, dealers to pay on it, then inevitably people will ask for change to tip (thanking the casino for playing with a 11.25 edge) which really eats into my speed. Funny though, I have actually had two people pay me a part of the payoff because I let them play on my spot. That's an edge you can't beat :cow:

btw, its been a while... missed all you regulars out there, ha!