path to AP

[EmeraldCityBJ]

I wonder how many people think they've starting out as an AP, when in fact, they are really playing a -EV game, or perhaps breaking even at best.

I have always counted, but for the first 10 years of my playing career, I also employed progression strategies and had no sense of proper bankroll management. While I was probably playing smarter than the average ploppy, and was even "good" enough to get backed off a couple times, I was hardly an AP. However, I'm sure if you asked me at any point during those first 10 years, I would have characterized myself as an AP even though I didn't have any results to prove it.

It wasn't until a few years ago when I decided to establish a bankroll, determine an acceptable risk level, and size my bets according to my advantage rather than dorking around with worthless systems.

 

[Severity8]

depends

IMHO I would think anybody that is aware of AP and is actively trying to improve their techniques (math based) would be an AP just to varying degrees. lol new kid says I bought a book and i'm learning to count..... ya you're an AP'er just not a very good one yet! right?

 

[The Suburbs]

Semi-degenerate gambler to AP

Started playing BJ when I turned 21 (once or twice before that, actually). Total ploppy and degenerate. I actually won quite a bit of money (for a college student, anyways) early on without even knowing BS. Proceeded to lose it all and a lot more; pretty much more than I could afford at the time. Then again, what college student can really afford to gamble?

About two years ago my dad (longtime ploppy) learned Hi-Lo from a friend and a year and a half ago taught me the basics. I've been out of work for over a year (by choice) and luckily have had the time and bankroll to hone my game. Only within the past 10 months or so have I really started to see real results and become confident in my game. While I have no interest in going pro (I'm only in my mid-20's and mainly doing it for fun/something to do rather than the money), I have to admit that the actual results have exceeded my personal expectations.

That being said, I think there is something to be said about the difference between the transition from short-term ploppy to AP versus long-term ploppy to AP. I am still young, trying to learn as much as possible, and haven't played long enough to have ploppyisms etched in stone in my head. My dad, who was a ploppy for 20 years or so, while a proficient counter, still holds onto certain ploppyisms and doesn't quite trust all the math behind being an AP.

 

[kewljason]

This has indeed been an interesting thread, and as the 'ploppie to AP' number grows closer to even, I must say I am surprised at how many of you degenerate gamblers have been able to cross the line to AP. Congrats on that.

But it also raises other questions like do you still 'gamble' on neg EV games which substantially eat into, or completely negate any advantage you have from blackjack play?

I also wonder how many career type players that earn at least a substantial part of their income from AP, comes from this ploppie to AP group? I will bet not nearly as high a percent. The discipline and mentality needed to play and succeed at that level, would have conflicted with negative EV play, and probably not allowed the person to have been a ploppie to begin with.

Not going to do polls on these issues, just thinking out load.

 

[Coyote]

Regarding the ploppies turned AP, I always wondered if becoming a proficient AP "scratched the same itch" that earlier made them (sometimes degenerate) gamblers, a la Flash.

Never had a desire to set foot in a casino. It was my wife's birthday so we decided to head to vegas with some friends. I'm a beach lover! Love to surf, dive, and fish. I was a sport and went along and had that first night at the Mirage and the rest is history! I have been on the road to AP ever since.

 

[fubster]

i'm probably the least degenerate professional gambler out there. i used to think to myself "damn, i wish i was some sort of gambling addict. i'd put in tons of hours and make infinite monies!"

obviously that's really dumb, but yeah. never been a gambler. i think i've wagered a grand total of $200 at neutral or negative EV games lifetime over the past 2+ years of being a full time professional.

that doesn't include the dozens and dozens of $5 videogame bets i've lost. i really suck at blades of steel apparently.

 

[LovinItAll]

Started as an AP pool player in the 70's. My father was a degen, but his downfall was always poor BR management. Even my mother and grandmother, both EXCELLENT gin/bridge players, contributed to my deliquency, though they are the people that got me on the right track re: BR management, accountability, accurate tracking, and getting it in my brain that moving down was not a reflection of my worth as a human being (we won't talk about the whole AP lifestyle and its reflection on many people's character).

I supplemented my income with AP pool play and occasional poker play from the late 70's through ~2003 when Moneymakler hit. The next five years were just crazy, and the crew I was hanging with made mad money both online and in the B & M joints (which I've always preferred). I started playing BJ in earnest around that time, but I had become a proficient counter years prior.

I stuck with pretty strict money management re: my AP play through the years. I knew that I wanted to retire with a bankable plan from my 'regular job' in my early 50's and 'play out' from there.

So far, so good. My wife 'gets it', and my daughters - both with graduate degrees and fine jobs - know better than to 'go there', but neither has ever expressed a true interest in AP.

Oh. left out golf! Not a big stream, but I get good match-ups via my business contacts pretty regularly, plus it gets me outside more.

Best of luck to all.....

 

[paddywhack]

But it also raises other questions like do you still 'gamble' on neg EV games which substantially eat into, or completely negate any advantage you have from blackjack play?

BJ was the only game for me as I knew it could be beaten with, as CP always puts it, SKILLZ. So my ploppydom was because I failed to do the necessary homework.

Only other game I play is 9/6 JoB or similar VP. Sometimes to pass the time during a wong-out, usually just to turn my comp into CASH

 

[Gamblor]

Either you know something about Keno I don't, or I know something about the Big 6 wheel you don't :grin:

The latter :grin: I assume Big 6 might be beatable like Roulette is beatable. But 20% edge?

 

[Youk]

This has indeed been an interesting thread, and as the 'ploppie to AP' number grows closer to even, I must say I am surprised at how many of you degenerate gamblers have been able to cross the line to AP. Congrats on that.

But it also raises other questions like do you still 'gamble' on neg EV games which substantially eat into, or completely negate any advantage you have from blackjack play?

I also wonder how many career type players that earn at least a substantial part of their income from AP, comes from this ploppie to AP group? I will bet not nearly as high a percent. The discipline and mentality needed to play and succeed at that level, would have conflicted with negative EV play, and probably not allowed the person to have been a ploppie to begin with.

Not going to do polls on these issues, just thinking out load.

Hey guys, Kewljason's post above prompted me to finally register my handle for this website. Most of you have seen occasional posts from me on the other website, or have met me personally or via parties.

I am definitely in the ploppy to AP group. Yet, I cannot really say that I have obtained 'AP' status, due to what Kewljason says above. I won't go into it too much (as I will post about the 'gambler's mind' at a later time), but I struggle to stop playing -EV games sometimes because 'I have the itch'. I look at my records, and I am + in blackjack after my 300+ hours of play. Yet, I keep good records of all my other soirees, and it is pretty ugly. I typically resort to my -EV games when I have a BJ session that was a 2 SD win or loss, where I sometimes let my emotions get the best of me. I have worked on this significantly over the past couple years, resulting in a couple years of being at even, but it is hard to wean yourself from 'habits'. This year, the focus has been very good, just not the BJ results.

Kewljason, given that you are in the group of 'always AP' instead of 'ploppy to AP', I'm impressed that you are able to think about discipline and how -EV games can affect the 'ploppy to AP' group. You must know at least a couple people who have been down that road...?

-Youk

 

[ChefJJ]

Played cards and dice as a teenager, got my first casino exposure at the age of 19 at Casino Windsor in the 1990s. Used the BS card my co-worker had when we went and pretty much just flat betted. Enjoyed it, but the AP world reared its ugly head a couple years later at a riverboat in Indiana. After years of work, the rest is history. :joker:

 

[kewljason]

Hey guys, Kewljason's post above prompted me to finally register my handle for this website. Most of you have seen occasional posts from me on the other website, or have met me personally or via parties.

I am definitely in the ploppy to AP group. Yet, I cannot really say that I have obtained 'AP' status, due to what Kewljason says above. I won't go into it too much (as I will post about the 'gambler's mind' at a later time), but I struggle to stop playing -EV games sometimes because 'I have the itch'. I look at my records, and I am + in blackjack after my 300+ hours of play. Yet, I keep good records of all my other soirees, and it is pretty ugly. I typically resort to my -EV games when I have a BJ session that was a 2 SD win or loss, where I sometimes let my emotions get the best of me. I have worked on this significantly over the past couple years, resulting in a couple years of being at even, but it is hard to wean yourself from 'habits'. This year, the focus has been very good, just not the BJ results.

Kewljason, given that you are in the group of 'always AP' instead of 'ploppy to AP', I'm impressed that you are able to think about discipline and how -EV games can affect the 'ploppy to AP' group. You must know at least a couple people who have been down that road...?

-Youk

Well, welcome Youk! It's about time. :laugh: Glad we inspired you to cross over and expand your horizons.

I do not personally know any of the 'ploppie to AP group'. Having spend a good deal of time in AC and now I live in Vegas and spend a great deal of time on or around the strip, I can't help but see the effects of lack of discipline and negative EV have on people every single day. It's horrifying. I don't count myself better than those that fight that battle, I count myself lucky for not having to fight that battle. For never having had that desire. I find that concept of reformed or reforming gambler to AP interesting. As difficult as AP is, doing so from the dark side and succeeding is almost unimaginable to me. Staring that temptation in the face and fighting it everyday. I can only equate it to a recoving alcholic being a bartender.

As for discipline, I think about it every day. It is the single most important quality an AP must have and a powerful weapon in the fight. While I don't don't have to call on discipline to get me to walk past slot machines, video poker, roulette or craps tables, I need to exercise discipline in other areas. Sticking to my game plan. Getting out when the count goes negative. Continuing to put out the money when called for even when you are getting hammered. Even passing on the free drinks. I enjoy beer and alcohol. A great deal! But I don't drink while playing. It's temptiing to have a few free drinks towards the end of a long table-hopping day. The casino's are throwing temptation at you in many forms. Even food. The casino's promote and push food, like a drug dealer. And I like to eat, especially when someone else is cooking. Discipline...

 

[LovinItAll]

But it also raises other questions like do you still 'gamble' on neg EV games which substantially eat into, or completely negate any advantage you have from blackjack play?

I still play -EV games occassionally, but the circumstances are either unique or I view them in the same light as a recreational activity that costs x. I never gamble on -EV games that have any impact on my gaming BR. For example:

- My daughter visits me in LV periodically and, until recently when she started playing BS BJ, she had developed a slot machine fetish....what a killer. She still likes the slot machines, but we have a deal now:

We'll play a 'slot tournament' once when she's in town. We find three like machines, I drop $100 in each one for my daughter, my GF, and me, and we play it out until 'last man standing' who then must treat everyone else to lunch/dinner. It's a lot of fun as we 'compete', and it seems to satisfy my kid, as she looks forward to the 'tournament' and stays away from the slots until then.

- Once a month or so, I'll find a roulette wheel where a bunch of cute girls are playing, buy in for $100, and have some fun until either the $100 is gone, the girls are gone, or I get bored.

- During football season, I bet $100 on my favorite team every week. Over the past 20 years, they're a little under .500 OTS, but it's still fun.

May the Greek Goddess of Blackjack, Countess Lucktavia, be with all of you!

LIA

 

[kewljason]

I still play -EV games occassionally, but the circumstances are either unique or I view them in the same light as a recreational activity that costs x. I never gamble on -EV games that have any impact on my gaming BR. For example:

- My daughter visits me in LV periodically and, until recently when she started playing BS BJ, she had developed a slot machine fetish....what a killer. She still likes the slot machines, but we have a deal now:

We'll play a 'slot tournament' once when she's in town. We find three like machines, I drop $100 in each one for my daughter, my GF, and me, and we play it out until 'last man standing' who then must treat everyone else to lunch/dinner. It's a lot of fun as we 'compete', and it seems to satisfy my kid, as she looks forward to the 'tournament' and stays away from the slots until then.

- Once a month or so, I'll find a roulette wheel where a bunch of cute girls are playing, buy in for $100, and have some fun until either the $100 is gone, the girls are gone, or I get bored.

- During football season, I bet $100 on my favorite team every week. Over the past 20 years, they're a little under .500 OTS, but it's still fun.

May the Greek Goddess of Blackjack, Countess Lucktavia, be with all of you!

LIA

I too do a very small amount of sportsbetting. While I am a huge sports fan, I don't need to wager on games, my favorite team or not, to enjoy them. I also know that while a few players are good enough to a consistant winner, I am not one of them. My small amount of sportsbetting is not for entertainment purposes, it is strictly for profit. Sounds like a contradiction to everything I have said, and well, it is. I have identified three situations that over the last decade underdogs have won or covered at an astonishing rate. Well over 60% for the decade. I do know that unlike blackjack, future results are not determined or influenced by past results, but the trent in these 3 unique situations have been so strong, that I have been playing them for 3-4 years now with great success. I don't think I will stop until I see some evidence that it has turned. FYI, the three unique situations were underdogs have been a extremely strong play are 1.) pro football, playoffs, 2.) college basketball conference tourneaments (preceeds NCAA march madness tournament) and 3.) Pro footbal pre-season. Yes preseason, which almost no sportsbettor will touch. :laugh:

So maybe I am a degenerate gambler.

 

[Most Interesting Man]

Do we need a rating scale for ploppyism?

Submitted for consideration:
Level 1: Recreational player. Plays -EV games sparringly with the intention of entertainment or social interaction. May play as part of a group at peak hours at places that have more than just gambling going on. In control of the amount spent and does not regret it after playing.

Level 2: Recreational player who shows of to their group by betting big. Feels the sting later on.

Level 3: The misguided AP. Intends on having a +EV game and attempts to avoid -EV games but their info is dead wrong. May be a result of having been convinced by some voodoo progression book. (If this person had pure intentions of playing only +EV games I would call them a really bad AP.) Bets and loses big on their system.

Level 4: The true believer. May not even have bothered reading a single book, even a voodoo book, yet expects they have a winning system. Showing them a sim of this system is not enough to convince these folks that they are throwing away their hard earned cash.

Level 5: Uncontrollable urge to gamble. Other aspects of life suffer. Difficulties in paying bills as a result. Plays as if their life depends on the outcome of the game and that's often the case due to extreme overbetting.

 

[LovinItAll]

Do we need a rating scale for ploppyism?

Submitted for consideration:
Level 1: Recreational player. Plays -EV games sparringly with the intention of entertainment or social interaction. May play as part of a group at peak hours at places that have more than just gambling going on. In control of the amount spent and does not regret it after playing.

Level 2: Recreational player who shows of to their group by betting big. Feels the sting later on.

Level 3: The misguided AP. Intends on having a +EV game and attempts to avoid -EV games but their info is dead wrong. May be a result of having been convinced by some voodoo progression book. (If this person had pure intentions of playing only +EV games I would call them a really bad AP.) Bets and loses big on their system.

Level 4: The true believer. May not even have bothered reading a single book, even a voodoo book, yet expects they have a winning system. Showing them a sim of this system is not enough to convince these folks that they are throwing away their hard earned cash.

Level 5: Uncontrollable urge to gamble. Other aspects of life suffer. Difficulties in paying bills as a result. Plays as if their life depends on the outcome of the game and that's often the case due to extreme overbetting.

I like this. Of course, all non-APs are mostly 'good for the game', and unless they are a close friend/relative, shouldn't be discouraged from their degenerative-ness.

- Level 5's are a sad lot. Hard not to feel a little bad for them, as they create a path of destruction that affects so many innocent folks around them. In Vegas, I don't see as many as I did in Tunica, where seemingly everyone I laid eyes on clearly had no business in a casino. Wathcing a semi-impoverished person cash their paycheck hoping to win ten bucks in some casino promotion and then turning around and blowing their load at the dice table - all the hardways and every other horrible bet, of course - was pretty pathetic.

- Level 4's may be the most entertaining to speak with, as they have it all 'figured out'. Heard a brand new BJ betting system last night from a #4, though I can't remember the details. My mind faded once he got about 6 bets deep with the explanation. He lost ~1k before he said (really), "Well, it doesn't work EVERY time." and left. No kidding.....

- Level 3: Had a friend who had a 'guaranteed' slot system. He finally admitted dropping ~$70k over the trailing 12 months and, thankfully, quit going to the casino.

- Level 2: In poker, it's such a good feeling baiting one of these guys into playing well over their head, and it doesn't take much to do so. I see it in BJ sometimes when I change my minimum and others raise their mins for no apparent reason other than peer pressure, even if they're down. Usually followed by some mumbling about 'catching up'.

- Level 1 - What gaming should be to all non-APs. With the proliferation of casinos across the U.S., this should almost be taught in a 'Responsible Parenting' class to ingrain this concept into the minds of our youth.

I have identified three situations that over the last decade underdogs have won or covered at an astonishing rate.

Re: Sports Betting - Every successful, professional sports bettor I've ever known (and there have been very few) spent an enormous amount of time on research, etc. I really like sports, but not THAT much! Glad you found a trend that's working for you so far.

Best ~ LIA

 

[Deleted member 3273]

From wanting into accepting

When we young we want. When we get older we accept. I have learnt blackjack the moment I plopped next to Zen who was playing blackjack in the Western. A street low life casino with great rules, for that time. When I started counting cards I use Uston APC, than based upon the advise of my best life friend and coach Zen I accepted that for shoe games playing High low, Zen Count was good enough beating the game.

My personality always looks for better, but that can outlook can become dangerous complicated when it only add .2 percent advantage over the long run. I am a person need for challenge all the time. But Zen has calmed me down to stick to high low cause making money means also knowing to do things while playing a good act. I am heading to Portugal for 1.4 years getting a greencard getting good value for my poker online what is finished here in the States. A big flag on my Desk and a lot of poker ( 6 max) will let me come back to the States, finally being able to form a team or be part of one. Zen and me have plans.
I think for the time being in Europe I just study the game on this site.

Thanks for all the help here. Great site always, and hopefully I can launch my book at this site when I am finally legal.

 

[BJgenius007]

I have only been a ploppy for 5 days. I was with my classmates visiting LV during spring break. Played using hunch only. Split tens. Do everything ploppy does. Spent $200 to buy a lesson. When I came back, I immediately went to buy a BJ software to practice. It is Hi Lo training software. It took me 3 months practicing every day. After making sure I have +ev playing, I began to visit AC about twice a month until I finished graduate school. After the initial one loss, I had 17 winning streak.

 

[The Chaperone]

I too do a very small amount of sportsbetting. While I am a huge sports fan, I don't need to wager on games, my favorite team or not, to enjoy them. I also know that while a few players are good enough to a consistant winner, I am not one of them. My small amount of sportsbetting is not for entertainment purposes, it is strictly for profit. Sounds like a contradiction to everything I have said, and well, it is. I have identified three situations that over the last decade underdogs have won or covered at an astonishing rate. Well over 60% for the decade. I do know that unlike blackjack, future results are not determined or influenced by past results, but the trent in these 3 unique situations have been so strong, that I have been playing them for 3-4 years now with great success. I don't think I will stop until I see some evidence that it has turned. FYI, the three unique situations were underdogs have been a extremely strong play are 1.) pro football, playoffs, 2.) college basketball conference tourneaments (preceeds NCAA march madness tournament) and 3.) Pro footbal pre-season. Yes preseason, which almost no sportsbettor will touch. :laugh:

So maybe I am a degenerate gambler.

Actually most the guys I know prefer NFL preseason to regular season or playoffs. Maybe you mean most ploppy sports bettors won't touch preseason. Trust me, the pros are banging away as hard as they can in August.

 

[Nynefingers]

I started playing poker for change with friends and generally won more than I lost, but I wasn't convinced I would be a winning player online as it was clear my friends were pretty bad. I finally started playing online when I learned about the bonuses being offered at that time. I worked out the math and realized that if I stuck to the lower limits (I started at $0.50/$1 LHE) it would be very difficult to lose more than the bonus was worth in the time it took to clear it. I got a couple of books and got started. I found out pretty quickly that I was a winning player and after some study I was averaging around 3BB/100. It didn't take long before I was 4 tabling, which at the time was the most you could do on a single site. I was playing a number of different sites back then and was almost always working to clear some kind of bonus. I also took advantage of a number of online casino bonuses at that time. I eventually got busy with other things and stopped putting in many hours. I went a few years only playing online occasionally. I also occasionally went to casinos to play poker and only rarely spent any money at any other games.

I've been interested in the idea of card counting for quite some time, but I had done enough research in the past to understand the relationship between bankroll and expected winrate. I didn't have any games near me, so I know I had to play with a large enough winrate to justify travel, and quite simply I didn't have a large enough bankroll to justify it. I eventually found myself living near enough to playable games and with enough money to constitute a reasonable bankroll, so I started reading and found this site pretty quickly. I had learned basic strategy during my online casino bonus days, and I had played a few blackjack tournaments, so it wasn't too much of a leap. I spent the next year playing pretty frequently, visiting more than 70 casinos in several states, learning lots of new things, meeting several APs from this site (and a couple of very skilled APs "in the wild"). I eventually got banned from one of my local games and heated up at the others, so I've barely played anything in the last few months (hence my scarcity on this website). I did manage to take one gambling trip earlier this year and I hope to take at least one or two more later this summer. I expect to be a profitable gambler for the rest of my life in some form or another. I've never enjoyed "the gamble" of it, and I have always enjoyed the mathematical side of the games, so I don't think there's any risk of ever drifting over to the other side. Hopefully I'll have more vacation time available over the next several months and I can devote more time to the casinos, and hopefully I'll be able to meet up with some of you guys again in the future.