percentage of income poll

[paddywhack]

That line is beginning to lose its sheen.

That too

 

[monte_vv]

Well, I spend more of my time playing against players now than the casinos, so one of the full-time votes may, or may not, be valid.

As for the weekend warriors and counting, I'm not really a big fan of the concept. Many will never play long enough to overcome a bad stretch of variance, so I consider most recreational counters to be engaged more in gambling than advantage play.

Mind you, I have a somewhat more personal definition of 'advantage play' than most. In brief, simply having expectation on a given play does not meet my needs. I've probably been most influenced by poker in this regard, where I routinely pass up slight edges for locks. There is some debate on this, even in the poker community, but little to none from those who play for a living.

You can pick your moments.

And KJ, don't cut yourself short. Most people who play part-time would be incapable of playing full-time. At least, not with the slight edges a typical weekend warrior has with counting. One of the reasons that most successful full-time players abandon counting is that THEY can't handle the fluctuations. It is out of the need for brute survival that they gravitate to stronger methods. Methods that are out of reach for the recreational player.

This is a bit of a sore point for those who make advantage play a significant part of their recreation, but do not derive the majority of their income from it. Simply having the attributes does not make you a contender. And you simply don't know how you'll react until your livelihood is on the table. It's more an issue of intestinal fortitude than intellectual prowess. I'm certain, for instance, that a QFIT has a far stronger grasp on the mathematics of advantage play than myself (at least, I would certainly hope so!), however ... I am also certain he would never place himself in the situations that have been instrumental in my growth as a player.

So, yes, in a way some could be more successful as full-time advantage players ... but they never will be. Nor should they even attempt such folly. It's not in their nature, and this isn't a bad thing.

Best,
Syph

How you could possibly come to such an odd conclusion, and be "certain" of it, is beyond me.

What I do is determine, to the best of my ability, the probability of outcomes. I am neither talking about mathematics nor the gambling field in particular. I am talking about looking at human dynamics in complex situations and balancing the possible upsides and downsides of various actions. Humans are always the largest variable, not simple math. Beating a casino is trivial in comparison to advancing in the corporate world. This is the basis of my professional life and how I have worked over decades in several fields. What I DON'T do, is make baseless assumptions about the lives of others and post them. I really wish you would refrain from posting wild speculations about people about which you know nothing.

Syph, if you wish to progress in the real world, please make an attempt to present your points without degrading others with gratuitous slights.

From the tone of Syph's post he is a legend in his own mind. I agree completely with QFIT's response,

 

[BrianCP]

A Vatican assassin warlock?

Does he also have tiger blood, by any chance?

Nope, just 100% DOLEMITE

 

[Craps Master]

Syph, if you wish to progress in the real world, please make an attempt to present your points without degrading others with gratuitous slights.

Yeah but he was right.

 

[KenSmith]

This poll and thread have some useful insights. Let's not head down the road of personal attacks.

 

[kewljason]

As sometimes happens on this site, this thread has gone off on a rather entertaining direction. :laugh: That's ok though. I thank everyone for participating in the poll.

A few observations from the poll: With 51 votes recorded we have 6 players who describe themselves as full time, all income coming from advantage play and another 4 that two thirds of their income comes from AP. I would guess that those other 4, the other thirds of less of other income comes from investments and/or pension, social security, rather than a job. this premise could be incorrect, but I say this because it doesn't seem likely that someone would work a full-time job to account for only a small portion of their income. If this is the case 10 of 51 votes are basically fulltime players. That's 20% and a higher number than I expected.

I was also surprised by the lone player in the 50% category. I thought there would be more players, perhaps retired again with pensions and/or social security that fell in this range.

 

[NightStalker]

me too was surprised

I was also surprised by the lone player in the 50% category. I thought there would be more players, perhaps retired again with pensions and/or social security that fell in this range.

T00 bad

 

[Syph]

How you could possibly come to such an odd conclusion, and be "certain" of it, is beyond me.

What I do is determine, to the best of my ability, the probability of outcomes. I am neither talking about mathematics nor the gambling field in particular. I am talking about looking at human dynamics in complex situations and balancing the possible upsides and downsides of various actions. Humans are always the largest variable, not simple math. Beating a casino is trivial in comparison to advancing in the corporate world. This is the basis of my professional life and how I have worked over decades in several fields. What I DON'T do, is make baseless assumptions about the lives of others and post them. I really wish you would refrain from posting wild speculations about people about which you know nothing.

Syph, if you wish to progress in the real world, please make an attempt to present your points without degrading others with gratuitous slights.

This, here, is exactly what curtails discussion, limits debate, and turns potentially valuable threads into pissing matches.

Someone's feelings were hurt. Dead stop. Do not pass Go!, do not collect $200, go directly to jail. Feelings were hurt. And it's all about the feelings. The wounded child must be placated, appeased, nurtured, and treated with kitten gloves.

This is not the first time. I recall a post I made a while back regarding my encounters with professional players. I felt it would be of greater value for others than soothing Norm's tantrums. Alas, it was not to be. Inevitably, another gentleman on this forum stepped up to respond on my behalf, and the thread was locked. I had hoped to continue with my experiences with professionals in this field, but no dice. Feelings were hurt.

And it's all about the feelings.

More recently, I was discussing a simple, mechanical strategy I once used to turn $2K into $20K in the poker rooms. I still have records from that summer, I calculated the standard deviation, expectation, and risk for a given bankroll under specific conditions. I felt it might be of value to some members on this forum, particularly in light of the decidedly marginal returns the vast majority of enthusiasts here have reported in the polls. Alas, someone took offense. It became a personal matter. The strategy never got discussed, nor the the escalating value of the instrinsic advantages inherent in the short approach as one moves up in stakes

Now, we return to a topic I think may be of further value to others. I intended for the follow up posts to go into detail explaining why you won't succeed as an advantage player, why you are not a special snowflake, what others have done, and what you may try. In my experiences, success is less a matter of attitude, knowledge and skill, and more your response to a hardwired physiology that will betray you.

(and I don't care what social circles you move in)

For those interested, the discussion would have fallen along these lines:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/w-agora/view.php?bn=bjf_trading&key=1214083924&pattern=Taleb

I wrote about this years ago, and there are some new insights since then. But never mind, I know someone will feel slighted, personal offence will be taken, feelings will be hurt, and the discussion will be locked. A complaint has already been registered. It does not matter that my initial comment was, in fact, complimentary towards Norm, and a slight towards myself. That doesn't really fuel any righteous indignation. And in any event, no one wants to hear why there are only a handful of successful, full-time players in the world. We would rather close our eyes, bury our heads, and live out our Walter Mitty fantasies.

Personally, I think you can do better.

Best,
Syph

 

[QFIT]

“Someone's feelings were hurt.”
“The wounded child must be placated, appeased, nurtured, and treated with kitten gloves.”
”...soothing Norm's tantrums”

Once again, you completely mischaracterize what I said and follow it with a tirade of personal attacks. In no way, shape or form did I suggest that my “feelings were hurt.” The facts are simple. I was not in this thread. It had nothing to do with me. But, you, once again, decided to make an absurdly false statement about someone, for no conceivable reason other than sheer nastiness. Now, I know that you have written that you believe nastiness is good. I think we have ample, current examples in this world that nastiness is a human failure causing serious problems with our country and our world and solving nothing. It impedes the discussion that you claim you want – and yet your attempt at discussion is yet another long list of personal attacks and flat-out mischaracterizations.

For some reason, you think the threads that you join are locked because people ask you to be civil, and not because you make gratuitous, personal attacks. Just try one time to make a point without personal attacks and lies. Perhaps then, the threads that you join will stop being locked.

 

[zengrifter]

How [Syph] could possibly come to such an odd conclusion, and be "certain" of it, is beyond me.Syph, if you wish to progress in the real world, please make an attempt to present your points without degrading others with gratuitous slights.

My interpretation of the Syph's comment was not a degrade or slight. I think what he was intimating was that you/QFIT are too much of an engineer to place your self in to the sort of higher-risk situations that may (in some cases like Syph) build character. zg

 

[QFIT]

My interpretation of the Syph's comment was not a degrade or slight. I think what he was intimating was that you/QFIT are too much of an engineer to place your self in to the sort of higher-risk situations that may (in some cases like Syph) build character. zg

And, once again, he is completely wrong. Unbelievably wrong. The simple fact is that he has been making false statements about me for many years based on absolutely nothing.

 

[zengrifter]

And, once again, he is completely wrong. Unbelievably wrong. The simple fact is that he has been making false statements about me for many years based on absolutely nothing.

Syph, have you been spending too much time with Stalker and Radar or something? zg

 

[zengrifter]

And, once again, he is completely wrong. Unbelievably wrong.

So you have been known to play at a RoR higher than .000000001%? zg

 

[QFIT]

So you have been known to play at a RoR higher than .000000001%? zg

I've been involved in five start-ups. Start-ups require enormous investment and over 50% RoR. You can work for a year or two, investing time and money with zero income, just to have it fail. Of course there is great payback on a success. Two failed. Two succeeded. One is underway. My largest personal loss, in the largest casino in the world (the financial markets), was several hundred thousand.

But, this is irrelevant. The fact is that Syph makes pronouncements about people about whom he knows nothing, followed by streams of personal attacks. When he is asked to be civil, he claims that somehow it is civil folk that get in the way of discussion. There simply is no reason for uncivil behavior. It destroyed BJFO. So, why would we want the same destructive behavior here?

It is also currently causing great harm to our country.

 

[Syph]

But, this is irrelevant. The fact is that Syph makes pronouncements about people about whom he knows nothing, followed by streams of personal attacks. When he is asked to be civil, he claims that somehow it is civil folk that get in the way of discussion. There simply is no reason for uncivil behavior. It destroyed BJFO. So, why would we want the same destructive behavior here?

It is also currently causing great harm to our country.

Actually, you hated BJFO from the start, so there's a little bit of misrepresentation at work here, Norm. And there's no reason for civil behavior that gets in the way of discussion. I think that's an area you fail to understand. Those who are interested in BJ aren't concerned with pandering to your hypersensitivity. I know when I make a post, I'm more concerned with passing on knowledge than whether it's going to hurt your precious feelings.

Seriously, grow up. And stop polluting this threat with your ramblings. Most are here to discuss blackjack, not your therapy options.

Good day.

 

[QFIT]

Actually, you hated BJFO from the start, so there's a little bit of misrepresentation at work here, Norm. And there's no reason for civil behavior that gets in the way of discussion. I think that's an area you fail to understand. Those who are interested in BJ aren't concerned with pandering to your hypersensitivity. I know when I make a post, I'm more concerned with passing on knowledge than whether it's going to hurt your precious feelings.

Seriously, grow up. And stop polluting this threat with your ramblings. Most are here to discuss blackjack, not your therapy options.

Good day.

Four more churlish personal attacks and an outright lie.

I did NOT hate BJFO from the start. I used to post there. But, Don and I were threatened. We were told that if we continued to post at AP.com, that our reputations would be destroyed. We refused. This was followed by years of people attempting to destroy us. A concerted effort to destroy AP.com and CV through massive lies posted by numerous aliases. People were told that if you even looked at AP.com, your PC would be harmed and your credit cards stolen. People were told that if you even tried the CV demo, your PC would be destroyed and you would be turned into the caisnos. Syph was part of that group.

 

[iCountNTrack]

Syph has been banned for 3 days for continuous flaming . Thread has been cleaned. Let's keep the discussion civil without resorting to personal attacks

 

[zengrifter]

Syph makes pronouncements about people about whom he knows nothing, followed by streams of personal attacks. When he is asked to be civil, he claims that somehow it is civil folk that get in the way of discussion.

People change when they hang with real pros... present company excluded. zg

 

[zengrifter]

I've been involved in five start-ups. Start-ups require enormous investment and over 50% RoR.

Much higher than 50%. You have been fortunate. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Actually, [QFIT] hated BJFO from the start, so there's a little bit of misrepresentation at work here.

BJFO has become a sad and unfortunate anachronism. The site was polluted with toxic rants and demented attacks by Stalker and Radar, among others, compounded by curious bannings... all the while seemingly oblivious to the Bishop himself. Such is love, we suppose. zg