Plan of attack - signoff requested

[apex]

Low

If you are confident in your skills and understand the possible outcomes, I say go for it. A 20% ROR is still an 80% chance of success. During certain points of my play I was walking that line and I am happy I did.

You have to understand the perspective of some of the answers you get. Flash is a full time pro, and would never consider a course of action with a 20% ROR. As I become closer to pro level player, I begin to find his advice that I once dismissed as too conservative more and more applicable.

If you can afford to lose 10K and really want to reach a high level of play fast, then play it hard. Smaller top bets will not produce an hourly win rate that you consider worth your time.

Lastly, when you are playing a game that has a higher minimum than you should be playing, wong hard. I mean super hard. You are playing an excellent game (.3 HE) with 5/6 pen. Lets say 2 decks go by and the running count is -2. Now you are playing a 4 deck game with 1 deck cut off, 75% pen. True count is -.5, which adds about .25 to the HE. This game is now equivalent to a 4.5/6 deck H17 without LS. Wonging out at -.5 may be slightly overkill, but certainly get out of there the moment the TC touches -1.

 

[Lowrider]

Id like to thank everyone who has responded to the scope of my question...all of you were very helpful save a couple of posers who think they're smarter than Einstein....I eagerly anticipate future advice and criticisms of my plans.

KewlJason, welcome to my IGNORE LIST, have fun playing with FLASH.

I don't mind criticism, in fact I welcome it...but I will not tolerate personal attacks and asinine remarks....that's for the voodoo section and my ignore list

 

[Southpaw]

Lowrider,

I suppose I ought to first answer your question about RoR, since I have seen that no one else in the thread has done so yet.

You proposed that an RoR of X% means that there is an X% chance that you'd bust out before doubling your bank. This is an incorrect interpretation of RoR. What it really means (assuming we are talking about what is known as simple RoR) is that you have X% chance of busting out, were you to continue playing forever.

Secondly, assuming you're correctly scoping out the discard tray--which I am pessimistic as to whether or not you are--this is a very good game. Keep in mind that 4.75/6 is very different than 5/6. Remember that penetration is defined by when the cut card comes out (or where it was initially placed)--not by how many cards are left in the shoe after the last round; there is a big difference between these two in more crowded tables.

If you plan to wong, which you really should, I think that the game is good enough to stick around until TC = -2. From a practical standpoint, you probably ought to stay at the table (or just sit out a hand) if the shuffle is coming soon, even if the count is pretty negative.

Lastly, your attitude towards Flash and KewlJason is absolutely abhorrent. You ought to take heart towards Flash's advice regarding your benign spread and incompetent bankroll. I'm afraid that your behavior has already tarnished your credibility on this site.

Spaw

 

[BUZZARD]

i wanna be on the ignore list with KJ and the Gorilla so here goes...

Look noob. You are an embarrasment. Let me see if I get this straight. Your going to attack a $25 min table with 10 grand? 10 grand is peanuts. nothing at all. Get it? I re-split 6,6,6 yesterday and doubled two of them. My other hand was 3,3 which was split and a double came out. I lost all of them. Whats your max bet noob? 200? How are you going to feel if you show up and the very first shoe you lose $1600 in a single round the first 10 minutes you start? Then continue to lose the rest of the shoe? Now your sitting there, 15 minutes into your "career" and you have $7000 left. You are going to be destroyed.

 

[Solo player]

Id like to thank everyone who has responded to the scope of my question...all of you were very helpful save a couple of posers who think they're smarter than Einstein....I eagerly anticipate future advice and criticisms of my plans.

KewlJason, welcome to my IGNORE LIST, have fun playing with FLASH.

I don't mind criticism, in fact I welcome it...but I will not tolerate personal attacks and asinine remarks....that's for the voodoo section and my ignore list

Good job you just alienated two of the best players on the site. You are a real winner.

Play however your heart desires chances are you will be broke soon anyways.

 

[21gunsalute]

Id like to thank everyone who has responded to the scope of my question...all of you were very helpful save a couple of posers who think they're smarter than Einstein....I eagerly anticipate future advice and criticisms of my plans.

KewlJason, welcome to my IGNORE LIST, have fun playing with FLASH.

I don't mind criticism, in fact I welcome it...but I will not tolerate personal attacks and asinine remarks....that's for the voodoo section and my ignore list

You asked for advice. You were given advice. You then threw a hissy fit because you didn't like the advice and/or didn't want to follow it.

I'm sure that putting 2 people on your ignore list really hurt their feelings.

You probably should have posted this in the voodoo section because you are obviously just going to ignore the advice of experienced APs that are in the know.

Go ahead and post this in the voodoo section. You might get mikeinjersey and some other know-it-alls to affirm your ill founded concepts. Approval is approval, right, and that seems to be all your looking for...an ego boost. They might convince you to play martingale and double 13 against a 6 too, but at least you'll have made some new friends.

 

[psyduck]

I don't mind criticism, in fact I welcome it...but I will not tolerate personal attacks and asinine remarks....that's for the voodoo section and my ignore list

I believe the personal attack in this thread started in post #16.

Trust me. You will have a lot to lose if Flash and Kewjason put YOU on their ignore list. They are two knowledgeable pros in case you do not know. Take a look at their posts on this board.

 

[kewljason]

If I were you, I would spread:

TC less than 1 = $25
TC 1 = $50
TC 2 = $125
TC 3 = $250
TC 4 = max bet $400/$450

This spread will make you $50 per hour if you use level 1 counting system or $75 per hour if you use level 2. Your first proposal will lose you money. Your second proposal will make you less than $25 per hour.

I will respect the OP's request and won't comment on or offer opinion on his situation, but I do have a couple thoughts on these comments made by genius. A max bet of $400/$450 with a $10,000 BR may make $50 per hour, but the chances are better that it will make $0 per hour because you would be playing with an extremely high RoR and are likely to lose your entire $10K BR.

If you think a level 2 system will increase your performance by 50% ($50 vs $75) you are sadly mistaken. If that were the case there would never be any discussion about the merits of this as everyone would be using a level 2 count. The actual increase in performance and results is more in the 5-10% range, depending on exact games conditions and that is assuming the level 2 count is played equally as effective and flawless, as the level one count. Any additional errors decreases this margin.

 

[BJgenius007]

I will respect the OP's request and won't comment on or offer opinion on his situation, but I do have a couple thoughts on these comments made by genius. A max bet of $400/$450 with a $10,000 BR may make $50 per hour, but the chances are better that it will make $0 per hour because you would be playing with an extremely high RoR and are likely to lose your entire $10K BR.

If you think a level 2 system will increase your performance by 50% ($50 vs $75) you are sadly mistaken. If that were the case there would never be any discussion about the merits of this as everyone would be using a level 2 count. The actual increase in performance and results is more in the 5-10% range, depending on exact games conditions and that is assuming the level 2 count is played equally as effective and flawless, as the level one count. Any additional errors decreases this margin.

Unfortunately, he can't see you if you haven't known it yet.:laugh:

And regarding your comments, it is from my personal experience. I earned 2.5 units per hour when I used Hi Lo. Since I switched to Omega II with ace side count, I earn more than 3 units per hour (probably close to 5 units per hour now since I am experiencing a good variance). But I use almost all indexes, so I figure that an average counter might earn 2 and 3 units respectively.

 

[kewljason]

Unfortunately, he can't see you if you haven't known it yet.:laugh:

And regarding your comments, it is from my personal experience. I earned 2.5 units per hour when I used Hi Lo. Since I switched to Omega II with ace side count, I earn more than 3 units per hour (probably close to 5 units per hour now since I am experiencing a good variance). But I use almost all indexes, so I figure that an average counter might earn 2 and 3 units respectively.

I am well aware that he can't see me. (his loss as I am rather easy on the eyes...:laugh My comments weren't directed at him, but rather you. I thought I made that clear.

So anyway, you posted that comment about results based on your very own short term results. We generally don't draw any conclusions from short-term results, as they are meaningless and misleading, but that's OK. I am glad it is working out for you.

 

[blackchipjim]

Plan of attack?

I think this thread has all the makings of a past poster that is no longer posting to this site.

 

[kewljason]

I think this thread has all the makings of a past poster that is no longer posting to this site.

Me thinks there has been a lot of that going around lately. :laugh:

 

[paddywhack]

And regarding your comments, it is from my personal experience. I earned 2.5 units per hour when I used Hi Lo. Since I switched to Omega II with ace side count, I earn more than 3 units per hour (probably close to 5 units per hour now since I am experiencing a good variance). But I use almost all indexes, so I figure that an average counter might earn 2 and 3 units respectively.

And what, may I ask, has earned YOU the title of ABOVE AVERAGE counter??

 

[Lowrider]

I am going to delete this thread as we have a few members severely overeacting to legitimate criticism and the string is no longer helpful to me or others

 

[paddywhack]

I am going to delete this thread as we have a few members severely overeacting to legitimate criticism and the string is no longer helpful to me or others

And WHOSE FAULT IS THAT LOWRIDER????

 

[halibut]

Deleted in the interests of everyone's sanity

Thanks for your concern about our sanity!:laugh:

 

[21gunsalute]

I am going to delete this thread as we have a few members severely overeacting to legitimate criticism and the string is no longer helpful to me or others

No, it wasn't a few, it was you and you alone who overreacted to legitimate criticism.

 

[21gunsalute]

And what, may I ask, has earned YOU the title of ABOVE AVERAGE counter??

When the count reaches double figures he doesn't usually have to take off his shoes and socks to maintain it.

 

[zengrifter]

I am going to delete this thread as we have a few members severely overeacting to legitimate criticism and the string is no longer helpful to me or others

You CANNOT arbitrarily delete your thread. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Am I still looking at a RoR of around 13.5% by changing the min bet from $20 to $25 and the max bet from $160 to $150.

Slight improvement in ROR. zg